E-Financial
Refining Without Relief: How Global Oil Wars, Market Structure, and Monopoly Risks Still Drive Fuel Prices in Nigeria
By Blaise Udunze
The vision was bold. The expectation was clear. And the promise was powerful. When the Dangote Refinery began operations, it was hailed as Nigeria’s long-awaited escape from decades of energy contradiction, which involves exporting crude oil while importing refined fuel at high costs. It was meant to guarantee supply, stabilize prices, conserve foreign exchange, and most importantly, deliver relief to ordinary Nigerians.
What appears to be a distinct contradiction is that, despite months into its operation, a different reality is emerging, with fuel prices rising sharply. Inflationary pressures are intensifying. This occurrence has forced Nigerians to ask a difficult question once again, one that calls for an urgent answer. Why does a country that produces and refines crude oil still suffer the consequences of global oil shocks?
Looking at the trend, it is clear that the answer lies not just in geopolitics, but in the deeper structure of Nigeria’s oil economy, where global pricing, policy gaps, and now the looming risk of monopoly intersect.
With the recent development, the latest alarming surge in petrol prices has been driven largely by escalating tensions in the Middle East. This is particularly the U.S-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliatory measures from Tehran. A well-known fact is that at the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route through which a significant portion of global supply flows. Any disruption, even a speculative one, triggers immediate spikes in crude prices.
Within a week, oil prices jumped from the mid-$60 range to nearly $120 per barrel. For global markets, this is expected. For Nigeria, it is devastatingly ironic. Because, despite having crude oil in abundance and despite refining it locally, Nigeria remains fully exposed and this has continued to re-echo the same ironic question.
In a rare moment of corporate candor, the refinery’s leadership acknowledged this reality. The plant is deeply affected by global shocks. Crude oil, even when sourced locally, is priced at international benchmarks. Shipping costs have surged dramatically, from about $800,000 per tanker to as high as $3.5 million. Insurance premiums have climbed, and logistics have become significantly more expensive, with total costs further driving higher.
Even more revealing is the refinery’s sourcing structure. Only about 30 percent – 35 percent of crude comes from the Nigerian government supply under the crude-for-naira framework. A significant portion is still purchased in U.S. dollars on the open market, while another 30 percent – 40 percent is sourced internationally, including from the United States and other regions. This means the refinery is not insulated; it is integrated into the global oil system. The implication is unavoidable as local refining has not translated into local pricing control.
The impact on Nigerians has been immediate and severe, as petrol prices have surged from under N800 earlier in the year to over N1,200, and in some regions, it is even more alarming when the prices skyrocketed close to N1,400 per litre. Within weeks, multiple price increases have been recorded, driven largely by global crude price spikes and rising logistics costs. Doubtless, the country has witnessed the consequences ripple across the economy as transport fares rise, food prices increase, businesses struggle with higher operating costs, and inflation accelerates.
The development has attracted the attention of the labour unions and the organised private sector, prompting them to raise concerns and alarm about the consequences of job losses, business closures, and worsening hardship if the trend continues with each passing day, witnessing a daily increase and causing possible artificial scarcity.
Nigeria remains trapped in a painful contradiction. It produces crude oil. It refines crude oil. Yet it cannot protect its citizens from global oil volatility. As Aliko Dangote himself acknowledged, Nigeria has no direct role in the conflict driving these price increases, yet it bears the consequences due to global economic interdependence.
In a real sense, this is the deeper tragedy, as Nigeria has achieved capacity without control.
At the heart of the issue is a structural reality, crude oil is priced globally, not locally. Even under the crude-for-naira arrangement, pricing is benchmarked against international rates. This means refineries pay global crude prices, fuel prices reflect global market conditions, and domestic consumers absorb international shocks. In essence, Nigeria has moved refining home without bringing pricing sovereignty with it.
To be fair, the Dangote Refinery has played a stabilizing role. Nigeria still enjoys relatively lower petrol prices compared to many global markets. In several countries, supply disruptions have led to panic buying and rationing, while Nigeria has maintained a consistent supply. As the refinery’s CEO aptly noted, what is worse than $120 oil is no oil. The refinery has prevented scarcity, but it has not prevented high prices. Availability, in this case, has not equated to affordability, which is the painful part for the citizens.
While much of the current debate focuses on pricing, another critical issue is quietly taking shape, which is the risk of market concentration. Dangote Refinery deserves credit for its scale and ambition, but scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If fuel importers are gradually pushed out and no competing refineries emerge at scale, Nigeria could find itself transitioning from a public sector monopoly to a private sector dominance led by a single player.
Nigeria has seen this pattern before. In the cement industry, increased domestic production did not necessarily translate into lower prices. Limited competition allowed prices to remain elevated despite local capacity. The same risk now looms in the downstream oil sector. Without competition, price-setting power becomes concentrated, supply risks increase, and consumer protection weakens. In a country with fragile regulatory institutions, this is not a theoretical concern; it is a real and present danger.
No one should perceive this wrongly, because it is important, however, not to misplace blame. It should be made known that the Dangote Refinery is not a charity; it is a private enterprise operating within market realities. It must recover its investment, manage costs, and deliver returns. Its exposure to global pricing is not a failure of intent but a function of the system within which it operates.
The real issue lies in the structure of the market and the absence of sufficient competition.
It is no longer news that Nigeria’s downstream sector is now largely deregulated following the removal of fuel subsidies. While deregulation has reduced government fiscal burden and encouraged private investment, it has also exposed consumers to price volatility and limited the scope for intervention, as this has continued to cause pain. Markets, in theory, deliver efficiency, but in practice, they require competition and effective regulation to function properly. Without these, deregulation can simply replace one form of inefficiency with another.
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote Refinery; it needs to multiply it. The goal should be to build a competitive refining ecosystem to replace one dominant structure with another. The truth is not far from this, as part of a lasting solution, it requires encouraging new refinery investments, removing bottlenecks for players such as BUA and modular refineries, ensuring transparent crude allocation, providing open access to pipelines and storage infrastructure, and enforcing strong antitrust regulations.
Competition remains the most effective regulator of price, which is sacrosanct and it protects consumers, strengthens supply security, and reduces systemic risk.
This must also be perceived beyond competition, which calls for the government to act strategically. The fact is that when supplying crude to local refineries at discounted or stabilized rates, expanding naira-based transactions, and introducing temporary relief measures during global crises are all viable options that must be put into consideration. Energy is too critical to be left entirely to market forces, especially in a developing economy where millions are highly vulnerable to economic shocks.
It is time that Nigerians understood that the nation’s refining crisis has been decades in the making, and it cannot be solved by a single refinery, no matter how large. If asked, it will be said that this is a fact that can’t be argued. The Dangote Refinery is undoubtedly a turning point, but it will only remain so if it is embedded within broader systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks replacing one form of dependency with another, from import dependence to domestic concentration.
The question is no longer whether Nigeria can refine crude oil. It can. The real question is whether Nigeria can build a system that ensures fair pricing, competitive markets, consumer protection, and economic resilience, as these are exactly the core answers.
If global conflicts continue to dictate local fuel prices, if monopoly risks go unchecked, and if citizens remain vulnerable despite abundant resources, then the promise of local refining will remain unfulfilled, as it will bring no expected relief.
What is playing out is the well-known fact that in refining, as in democracy, concentration of power is dangerous. And in both, the strongest safeguard remains the same, competition, transparency, and institutions that serve the public interest.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has banned the marketing and promotion of a purported initial public offering (IPO) by Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE,.
It further warned that no application for such offer has been filed with or approved by the regulator.
In a public notice issued on Tuesday, the Commission said it had become aware of advertisements, flyers, digital banners and targeted electronic mails circulating on social media platforms and investment channels concerning a supposed securities offering by the refinery.
The SEC expressed concern over the involvement of some Registered Capital Market Operators (CMOs) in what it described as an “unwholesome and manipulative exercise” of actively soliciting advance subscriptions for an offering that has not been presented to the Commission.
According to the regulator, “No application for the registration of an IPO or public offer of shares of the Refinery has been filed with or approved by the Commission.”
The Commission added that the ongoing pre-marketing activities were “capable of misleading investors, distorting market expectations, creating information asymmetry and generally undermining the integrity of the capital market.”
It further stated that the marketing campaign and invitations to “create accounts”, “pre-fund,” or “secure guaranteed allocations” amounted to market manipulation and constituted “serious violation of the Investments and Securities Act.”
Consequently, the Commission directed all Registered Capital Market Operators, particularly stockbrokers and digital platform promoters, to immediately stop all promotional activities.
The SEC ordered them to “cease with immediate effect from publishing, reposting, or distributing any promotional material, flyer, or commentary relating to the acquisition or allocation of shares in the Refinery.”
It also directed operators to “remove or take down all such unauthorized marketing materials from websites, social media handles (including X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook etc.), and messaging groups within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”
The regulator further instructed operators to desist from accepting deposits, commitments, account openings or expressions of interest from investors for the purported public offering and to “reverse and refund all funds already collected in connection with this purported offering to clients within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”
The Commission warned that defaulters would face sanctions as non-compliance would attract penalties under the Investments and Securities Act, 2025 and the SEC Rules and Regulations.
Advising investors to exercise caution, the SEC said members of the public should “rely only on formal, official pronouncements issued directly by the Commission through its official channels.”
It warned that “all such high-pressure marketing tactics, or transfer of funds to any operator for ‘pre-IPO’ placement should be ignored as they did not receive the Commission’s approval.”
The Commission assured that if it eventually receives and clears an application for a public offering by the refinery, an approved prospectus would be made available to investors in line with the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.
Fidelity Bank Plc has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic diversification agenda through capacity building and export development, as it hosted the 19th edition of its Export Management Programme (EMP) at the Lagos Business School (LBS), Ajah, Lagos recently.
L-R: Relationship Manager, Fidelity Bank Plc, Murtala Muhammed Road Branch, Kano, Victor Ngwu; Export Management Programme (EMP 19) participant, Abayomi Adewuyi; Facilitator, Gemma Ejiofor; Senior Fellow and Head, Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Mgt., Lagos Business School (LBS), Dr. Uche Attoh; Director, Export Management Programme, LBS, Prof. Frank Ojadi; and Team Lead, Export & Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Emmanuel Nwalor, during the closing ceremony of the 19th edition of the Fidelity Bank Export Management Programme (EMP 19) held recently at Lagos Business School, Lagos.
Tagged EMP 19, the programme is an intense hands-on export management workshop, organized as a partnership between Fidelity Bank, Lagos Business School and Nigerian Export Promotion Council, brought together entrepreneurs, professionals, regulators and aspiring exporters for intensive training designed to equip participants with the knowledge, skills and networks required to compete successfully in international markets.
Speaking at the closing ceremony, Divisional Head, Export and Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Isaiah Ndukwe, said the bank remains focused on empowering Nigerian businesses to leverage emerging opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and expand the country’s non-oil export base.
“At Fidelity Bank, we recognize that capacity building is critical to unlocking Nigeria’s export potential. Through the Export Management Programme, we are equipping businesses with practical knowledge, market intelligence and strategic insights required to compete successfully in regional and global markets,” Ndukwe said.
“As AfCFTA continues to open new frontiers for trade across Africa, our goal is to ensure that Nigerian exporters are adequately prepared to seize these opportunities and contribute meaningfully to the country’s economic diversification agenda,” he added.
Nwalor further noted that the bank remains committed to providing exporters with the financial solutions, advisory support and strategic partnerships necessary to expand their businesses beyond Nigeria’s borders.
Also speaking, Director of the Export Management Programme at Lagos Business School, Professor Frank Ojadi, highlighted the need for continuous capacity development as international trade continues to evolve.
“The export market is always evolving. There are changes in policies, improvements in processes and increasing interest from businesses. These developments make it necessary to build the capabilities of our people to compete effectively in export markets,” Ojadi said.
According to him, this year’s programme placed significant emphasis on AfCFTA, exposing participants to both the fundamentals and practical aspects of leveraging the continental trade agreement for business growth.
“Many businesses are still learning how to take advantage of AfCFTA. Through this programme, participants gained practical insights that will help them navigate opportunities across African markets and beyond,” he added.
In his remarks, Senior Fellow and Head of the Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Management at Lagos Business School, Dr. Uche Attoh, emphasized the importance of negotiation and dispute resolution skills in international trade.
“It is negotiation that enables businesses to establish deals, while arbitration helps resolve disputes when they arise. Once participants understand the principles, they can apply them in any business environment, whether in Africa, Europe or America,” Attoh said.
Participants described the programme as impactful and transformative. Assistant Director at the Nigerian Shippers’ Council, Obinna Oforum, said the training strengthened his resolve to become an “export champion”.
Similarly, Chief Superintendent of Customs, Orji Samuel, praised Fidelity Bank and Lagos Business School for subsidizing the programme and creating an enabling platform for practical learning, noting that the knowledge gained would help participants navigate export challenges and unlock new business opportunities.
The Export Management Programme is Fidelity Bank’s flagship capacity-building initiative aimed at developing export-ready businesses and professionals capable of driving Nigeria’s non-oil export growth. Through strategic partnerships and targeted interventions, the Bank continues to play a leading role in supporting businesses, facilitating trade and creating pathways for sustainable economic development.
Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving more than 10 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.
The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international awards, including the 2025 Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) Innovation Award for MSME support; Best Retail and SME Bank Award from Independent Newspapers; Best Bank for Export & Trade Finance and Most Innovative Bank of the Year at the 2025 BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; and Nigeria’s Best Private Bank at the 2025 Euromoney Awards. The Bank also received the inaugural Most Improved Commercial Bank of the Year award by Nairametrics, the SME Bank of the Year award by NewsDirect, and the Straight-Through Processing (STP) Excellence Award by Citi Group, in addition to recognition by Global Brands Magazine for Excellence in Community Empowerment.
Federal government has engaged the banking community in Abuja to deepen understanding of the Revenue Optimisation Assurance Platform (RevOp), a digital platform designed to improve revenue generation, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability.
Mr Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, told RevOp sensitisation workshop, organised by the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) in Abuja, that RevOp is a centralised digital revenue collection and monitoring system designed to modernise Nigeria’s public finance operations.
Oyedele, who was represented by Mr Mohammed Danjuma, permanent secretary, Special Duties, explained that the platform provides a real-time, automated framework for all federal agencies to raise, collect, and report revenues, replacing fragmented manual processes that have plagued revenue collection for decades.
He reiterated the government’s commitment to improving revenue generation, enhancing transparency, strengthening accountability, and leveraging technology to drive efficiency across public financial management processes.
“RevOp serves as a critical tool in the government’s drive to improve revenue administration, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability,” he said.
According to him, a lot had been achieved since the inception and implementation of the platform and that the successes were not without challenges.
He identified one of the challenges as limited awareness among some banking channels and frontline officers.
The minister explained that some banking channels are not familiar with RevOp, its purpose, or the procedural requirements to support transaction processes through the platform.
“These challenges, though operational in nature, have significant impacts on the overall customer experience and effectiveness of the initiative. This is precisely why we are here today,” he said.
The minister said that the success of RevOp would not be achieved by government alone, adding that it required strong collaboration among all stakeholders, particularly banking institutions, which serve as critical collection and service channels.
He explained that the banking institutions’ role extends beyond merely collecting or processing payments to ensuring that government revenue collection processes are efficient and user-friendly.
“Today’s sensitisation session has, therefore, been organised to deepen understanding of the platform, clarify operational processes, address concerns, and establish stronger communication channels between the project team and participating financial institutions.
“We expect that the knowledge shared here will cascade throughout your respective organisations, especially to branch operations, customer service personnel, and tellers who interact directly with customers on a daily basis,” he said.
Oyedele said the ministry remained committed to working closely with all stakeholders to address identified challenges and continuously improve the platform.
In his speech, Dr. Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, accountant general of the Federation, said that the revenue optimisation portal had been adopted as a strategic platform for improving revenue collection, reconciliation, monitoring, and reporting.
Ogunjimi, represented by Mr Felix Ogundairo, his chief of staff, explained that the platform was designed to provide greater visibility into government revenue, eliminate leakages, improve compliance, and support informed decision-making through real-time data and analytics.
“This engagement, therefore, provides an opportunity for us to discuss implementation challenges, align expectations, clarify operational issues, and strengthen the partnership necessary for the success of the application,” he said.
In his remarks, Mr. Idris Dosunmu, RevOp Product Manager, explained that the platform unifies billing, payment and settlement under one platform and that every transaction passes through secure connections, ensuring complete transparency from bill creation to treasury receipt.
“This will ensure that every penny due to the federal government goes into the coffers of the government,” Dosunmu said.
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