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Election Tensions Raise Fear of Nigeria’s of Break-Up

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As Nigeria approaches its most divisive and closely fought election since the end of military rule in 1999, its leaders are having to reassure voters that Africa’s most populous nation will remain in one piece, according to Reuters.

The Feb. 14 vote pitting President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian popular in his southern oil-producing Niger Delta region and in the east, against former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim favored in the north and religiously mixed southwest, is already proving violent, with the electorate in Africa’s biggest economy more polarized than for decades.

“Despite the much-vaunted fear that our nation may not survive the elections … I remain optimistic that we have … the maturity to rise above the challenges,” Senate President David Mark told parliament last week.

“Our nation will not disintegrate after the elections.”

Ever since 1914, when Britain carved Nigeria out of a swathe of West Africa that was home to diverse peoples speaking more than 500 languages, it has been dogged by the question of how viable it is as a unified nation state.

Reuters said that, most analysts say that even if serious bloodshed follows the election, as many expect, the worst-case scenario of a break-up of a country of 180 million people remains unlikely.

“Nigeria has an enormous capacity to absorb risk,” the International Crisis Group’s Africa director Comfort Ero said. “While there are significant concerns about the elections, we are not predicting break-up.”

However, she added that the republic was “in deep trouble, probably more than at any time since the end of military rule … or even the civil war.”

The last time a bit of Nigeria tried to secede, it triggered the 1960s Biafra civil war in which more than a million people died. After that it seemed Nigerians were better off together.

But as the election cycle has hotted up, some have floated the idea of division, and Boko Haram insurgents controlling territory the size of Belgium in the northeast are waging an increasingly bloody campaign for a breakaway Islamic state.

Separately, dozens of people die every month in ethnic violence in the Middle Belt, where the largely Christian south and mostly Muslim north meet across a patchwork of minority groups that are likely to be split between the two candidates.

“Nigeria is bursting at the seams with ethno-religious … problems waiting to explode,” columnist Bayo Oluwasanmi wrote in the African Herald Express, a local daily, last month.

“Competition in the coming 2015 presidential election could break the already tattered ties that keep Nigeria whole.”

That is probably hyperbole but there are signs the elections could trigger violence that may not be as easy to quell as in 2011, when Buhari’s loss to Jonathan triggered three days of riots in the north that killed 800 and displaced 65,000.

Besides regional and ethnic differences, Buhari is also a protest vote for many who say Jonathan has failed to tackle insecurity and corruption, Nigerians’ two biggest complaints, and who was seen as tough on both when he ruled in the 1980s.

The pair hugged as they signed a peace pact last week, but clashes between thugs from the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Buhari’s opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) have marred campaign rallies, and the rhetoric remains poisonous and sometimes tinged with religion.

Last year the PDP accused the APC of a “devilish plot” to impose an “Islamic agenda” on Nigeria, a dangerous appeal to religious sentiment, while Jonathan has played up his Christian identity, forging ties with hardline evangelical pastors.

PDP state governor Ibrahim Shema had to retract a speech in November in which he described APC supporters as “cockroaches” and urged the crowd to “crush them”, a chilling echo of Hutu militia radio broadcasts during the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

On the other side, APC governor Rotimi Amaechi said this month that if the poll was not fair, the opposition would set up a “parallel government”, as happened after a disputed election in Ivory Coast in 2010.

“If they deny Buhari victory, it could mean civil war because both sides are so dug in,” prominent northern opposition politician Mohammed Junaidu told Reuters.

The 2010 Ivory Coast election did spark a civil war but the country was already militarily divided, which Nigeria is not.

In Kenya in 2007, a disputed election triggered three weeks of ethnic bloodshed that killed 1,200, a toll that would be far higher in Nigeria where there are many more people and weapons.

Ultimately what makes these polls so dicey is that they are a genuine contest, said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

By running in 2011 Jonathan broke an agreement with northern elites, in their minds at least, that it was the north’s ‘turn’ to field a president. Now such regional deals are in tatters.

“In the past there has been a kind of consensus among the people who run Nigeria … Elections at the presidential level were largely predetermined,” Campbell said. “What we are talking about now are real elections, with a polarized electorate.”


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PayPal Goes Live in Nigeria Through Paga

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 Paga, Nigeria’s pioneering fintech company, and global payments leader PayPal have launched live account linking for Nigerian users, unlocking seamless cross-border payments and local Naira access after years of limited service.

The integration allows Nigerians to directly connect PayPal accounts to Paga wallets, receive funds from PayPal’s vast network spanning over 200 markets and 436 million active users, shop with international merchants, and withdraw balances for everyday needs like bill payments, bank transfers, or Visa card spending.

This ends longstanding “send-only” restrictions, empowering freelancers, online sellers, and small businesses to earn globally and spend locally without cumbersome workarounds.

Nigerian merchants gain a competitive edge, tapping PayPal’s 400 million-plus customer base to accept payments in up to 25 currencies, with funds settling swiftly via Paga’s nationwide infrastructure. Currency conversions occur at market-driven willing-buyer-willing-seller rates, positioning the service against informal channels and crypto alternatives. Paga’s upcoming merchant gateway enhancements will support larger business transactions directly.

Paga Founder and Group CEO Tayo Oviosu described the rollout as transformative: “Whether you’re a freelancer receiving international payments, a business selling online, or a consumer shopping globally, this collaboration makes it easier to access and use global funds locally, in a way that’s simple, secure, and built for our markets.” PayPal’s Senior Vice President for Middle East and Africa, Otto Williams, added: “We’ve been intentional about partnering with local innovators like Paga… to expand financial inclusion and enable more consumers and businesses to participate confidently in the digital economy.”

The move bolsters Nigeria’s explosive digital payments sector, where 2023 transaction values hit ₦657.8 trillion ($730.9 billion)—averaging ₦54 trillion monthly—and active mobile wallet users exceed 30 million. Backed by Central Bank of Nigeria reforms like IMTO guidelines and fraud protections, it taps a $25 billion annual remittance flow and projects an $18.3 billion digital economy by year-end.

Paga, with over 21 million users, CBN nationwide licensing, and a $250 million valuation, serves as the ideal partner through its API ecosystem and settlement network. To start, users log into the Paga app or site, link their PayPal account (personal or business via individual Paga setup), and begin transacting instantly.

This partnership not only bridges global finance to local realities but also accelerates Nigeria’s fintech dominance, fostering SME growth and diaspora remittances in Africa’s largest economy.


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Facebook Powers Connection, Creativity at African Creators Summit 2026

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Facebook will be live at the 2026 African Creators Summit, delivering immersive on-ground experiences designed to connect with and empower Africa’s growing creator ecosystem. The summit will take place on Thursday, January 29, 2026, at the Federal Palace Hotel, Victoria Island, Lagos.

Facebook Powers Connection, Creativity at African Creators Summit 2026

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The African Creators Summit (ACS) is one of Africa’s leading gatherings for creators, storytellers, innovators and digital entrepreneurs. This year’s summ]it theme, ‘Building a Sustainable Ecosystem Where Africa Trades Its Swag’, aligns with Facebook’s focus to empowering creators with tools that support monetisation, audience reach, discovery and community building.

“We are dedicated to empowering creators in the communities they’re already active in so they can succeed and grow on Facebook while sharing original and engaging content,” said Oluwasola Obagbemi, Head of Communications, Sub-Saharan Africa at Meta. “Events like the African Creators Summit, which bring together creators, storytellers and innovators, provide a platform to demonstrate that Facebook is all about connecting people.

“We are excited to showcase the opportunities Facebook offers to reach a massive global audience, connect more deeply with real people and earn real money across all content formats.”

The event will bring together creators, young adults and Nigerian celebrities to connect, collaborate and create memorable moments at the Facebook-themed booth. Attendees will engage in interactive experiences that highlight authentic connection, community-building and the power of real relationships on Facebook—reinforcing the platform’s role as the largest network for meaningful connections across Africa.

“Creators are the teachers and architects of modern culture. What they build today becomes the standard tomorrow — shaping how we dress, how we think and how we show up in the world.

“That is why we introduced the African Creators Summit: to create the bridge between creators, businesses, platforms, policymakers and partners across Africa, so we can truly understand each other and build together.

“Facebook’s continued support of ACS reflects a long-standing belief in creators — their stories, their businesses and their power to drive global impact from Africa.

“It’s a clear commitment to creativity as a catalyst for cultural influence and economic growth.” – Oladapo Adewunmi (Convener African Creators Summit)

Over the years, Facebook has evolved to meet changing needs by building strong experiences across Groups, Video and Marketplace. With the African Creators Summit positioned not just as an event but as a catalyst powering a diverse, inclusive and future-focused Pan-African creative ecosystem, Facebook continues to power creativity and connection across the creator community.


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Why Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground with Big Profits, Weak Capital

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By Blaise Udunze

Despite the fragile 2024 economy grappling with inflation, currency volatility, and weak growth, Nigeria’s banking industry was widely portrayed as successful and strong amid triumphal headlines. The figures appeared to signal strength, resilience, and superior management as the Tier-1 banks such as Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, UBA, and First Bank of Nigeria, collectively reported profits approaching, and in some cases exceeding, N1 trillion. Surprisingly, a year later, these same banks touted as sound and solid are locked in a frenetic race to the capital markets, issuing rights offers and public placements back-to-back to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s N500 billion recapitalisation thresholds.

The contradiction is glaring. If Nigeria’s biggest banks are so profitable, why are they unable to internally fund their new capital requirements? Why have no fewer than 27 banks tapped the capital market in quick succession despite repeated assurances of balance-sheet robustness? And more fundamentally, what do these record profits actually say about the real health of the banking system?

The recapitalisation directive announced by the CBN in 2024 was ambitious by design. Banks with international licences were required to raise minimum capital to N500 billion by March 2026, while national and regional banks faced lower but still substantial thresholds ranging from N200 billion to N50 billion, respectively. Looking at the policy, it was sold as a modern reform meant to make banks stronger, more resilient in tough times, and better able to support major long-term economic development.  In theory, strong banks should welcome such reforms. In practice, the scramble that followed has exposed uncomfortable truths about the structure of bank profitability in Nigeria.

At the heart of the inconsistency is a fundamental misunderstanding often encouraged by the banks themselves between profits and capital. Unknown to many, profitability, no matter how impressive, does not automatically translate into regulatory capital. Primarily, the CBN’s recapitalisation framework actually focuses on money paid in by shareholders when buying shares, fresh equity injected by investors over retained earnings or profits that exist mainly on paper.

This distinction matters because much of the profit surge recorded in 2024 and early 2025 was neither cash-generative nor sustainably repeatable. A significant portion of those headline banks’ profits reported actually came from foreign exchange revaluation gains following the sharp fall of the naira after exchange-rate unification. The industry witnessed that banks’ holding dollar-denominated assets their books showed bigger numbers as their balance sheets swell in naira terms, creating enormous paper profits without a corresponding improvement in underlying operational strength. These gains inflated income statements but did little to strengthen core capital, especially after the CBN barred banks from using FX revaluation gains for dividends or routine operations. In effect, banks looked richer without becoming stronger.

Beyond FX effects, Nigerian banks have increasingly relied on non-interest income fees, charges, and transaction levies to drive profitability. While this model is lucrative, it does not necessarily deepen financial intermediation or expand productive lending. High profits built on customer charges rather than loan growth offer limited support for long-term balance-sheet expansion. They also leave banks vulnerable when macroeconomic conditions shift, as is now happening.

Indeed, the recapitalisation exercise coincides with a turning point in the monetary cycle. The extraordinary conditions that supported bank earnings in 2024 and 2025 are beginning to unwind. Analysts now warn that Nigerian banks are approaching earnings reset, as net interest margins the backbone of traditional banking profitability, come under sustained pressure.

Renaissance Capital, in a January note, projects that major banks including Zenith, GTCO, Access Holdings, and UBA will struggle to deliver earnings growth in 2026 comparable to recent performance.

In a real sense, the CBN is expected to lower interest rates by 400 to 500 basis points because inflation is slowing down, and this means that banks will earn less on loans and government bonds, but they may not be able to quickly lower the interest they pay on deposits or other debts. The cash reserve requirements are still elevated, which does not earn interest; banks can’t easily increase or expand lending investments to make up for lower returns. The implications are significant. Net interest margin, the difference between what banks earn on loans and investments and what they pay on deposits, is poised to contract. Deposit competition is intensifying as lenders fight to shore up liquidity ahead of recapitalisation deadlines, pushing up funding costs. At the same time, yields on treasury bills and bonds, long a safe and lucrative haven for banks are expected to soften in a lower-rate environment. The result is a narrowing profit cushion just as banks are being asked to carry far larger equity bases.

Compounding this challenge is the fading of FX revaluation windfalls. With the naira relatively more stable in early 2026, the non-cash gains that once flattered bank earnings have largely evaporated. What remains is the less glamorous reality of core banking operations: credit risk management, cost efficiency, and genuine loan growth in a sluggish economy. In this new environment, maintaining headline profits will be far harder, even before accounting for the dilutive impact of recapitalisation.

That dilution is another underappreciated consequence of the capital rush. Massive share issuances mean that even if banks manage to sustain absolute profit levels, earnings per share and return on equity are likely to decline. Zenith, Access, UBA, and others are dramatically increasing their share counts. The same earnings pie is now being divided among many more shareholders, making individual returns leaner than during the pre-recapitalisation boom. For investors, the optics of strong profits may soon give way to the reality of weaker per-share performance.

Yet banks have pressed ahead, not only out of regulatory necessity but also strategic calculation.

During this period of recapitalization, investors are interested in the stock market with optimism, especially about bank shares, as banks are raising fresh capital, and this makes it easier to attract investments. This has become a season for the management teams to seize the moment to raise funds at relatively attractive valuations, strengthen ownership positions, and position themselves for post-recapitalisation dominance. In several cases, major shareholders and insiders have increased their stakes, as projected in the media, signalling confidence in long-term prospects even as near-term returns face pressure.

There is also a broader structural ambition at play. Well-capitalised banks can take on larger single obligor exposures, finance infrastructure projects, expand regionally, and compete more credibly with pan-African and global peers. From this perspective, recapitalisation is not merely about compliance but about reshaping the competitive hierarchy of Nigerian banking. What will be witnessed in the industry is that those who succeed will emerge larger, fewer, and more powerful. Those that fail will be forced into consolidation, retreat, or irrelevance.

For the wider economy, the outcome is ambiguous. Stronger banks with deeper capital buffers could improve systemic stability and enhance Nigeria’s ability to fund long-term development. The point is that while merging or consolidating banks may make them safer, it can also harm the market and the economy because it will reduce competition, let a few banks dominate, and encourage them to earn easy money from bonds and fees instead of funding real businesses. The truth be told, injecting more capital into the banks without complementary reforms in credit infrastructure, risk-sharing mechanisms, and fiscal discipline, isn’t enough as the aforementioned reforms are also needed.

The rush as exposed in this period, is that the moment Nigerian banks started raising new capital, the glaring reality behind their reported profits became clearer, that profits weren’t purely from good management, while the financial industry is not as sound and strong as its headline figures. The fact that trillion-naira profit banks must return repeatedly to shareholders for fresh capital is not a sign of excess strength, but of structural imbalance.

With the deadline for banks to raise new capital coming soon, by 31 March 2026, the focus has shifted from just raising N500 billion. N200 billion or N50 billion to think about the future shape and quality of Nigeria’s financial industry, or what it will actually look like afterward. Will recapitalisation mark a turning point toward deeper intermediation, lower dependence on speculative gains, and stronger support for economic growth? Or will it simply reset the numbers while leaving underlying incentives unchanged?

The answer will define the next chapter of Nigerian banking long after the capital market roadshows have ended and the profit headlines have faded.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]


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