General News
Nigeria’s Inflation Drop: Has Life Become Any Easier?
By Blaise Udunze
When the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday announced that Nigeria’s inflation rate had dropped to 18.02 percent in September 2025, the news was met with official applause. Government officials hailed it as evidence that the economy is recovering. Yet, for the millions of Nigerians struggling to buy food, pay rent, or fuel their generators, the question remains painfully simple: has life become any easier? The answer, for most Nigerians, is no.
Inflation has long been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn economic afflictions that has been eroding purchasing power, distorting markets, and deepening poverty. The recent “decline” in inflation has not eased the everyday hardship of ordinary people. Prices are still rising, incomes remain stagnant, and hope for relief feels distant.
Nigeria’s inflation is fundamentally cost-push in nature, not demand-driven. Rising energy prices, unstable foreign exchange, high transport costs, and insecurity in food-producing regions continue to fuel cost increases across all sectors. The removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, though intended to restore fiscal discipline, have instead unleashed a new wave of inflationary pain. Each naira devaluation has made imports costlier, and with Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported food, fuel, and raw materials, the consequences are devastating for consumers.
This disconnect between the headline figures and the lived reality has deepened public distrust. Many Nigerians believe official inflation data do not reflect the economic pain they face daily. Critics, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have flagged weaknesses in Nigeria’s inflation measurement system: outdated expenditure weights dating back to 2003/2004, poor representation of the informal sector, and underweighted essentials like food and energy. Because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is infrequently rebased, it often lags behind real market conditions, which makes the official inflation rate appear lower than what citizens actually experience.
Independent trackers such as the “Jollof Index,” which measures the cost of cooking a basic Nigerian meal, consistently show higher inflation than the NBS reports. To most households, this is not a debate about methodology but about survival. A N1,000 note that once covered dinner now barely buys a few milk cups of rice. A civil servant’s salary, unchanged for years, has lost more than half its value. The supposed inflation “drop” is deceptive to those whose plates are emptier and whose transport costs have tripled.
Inflation has been a recurring symptom of Nigeria’s economic fragility since the return to democracy in 1999. Under Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), inflation briefly spiked to 28 percent but eventually stabilized at single digits through reforms and debt relief. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2007-2010) faced steady price rises amid Niger Delta unrest and weak policy continuity. Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) managed to keep inflation moderate, averaging about 10 percent, helped by oil windfalls and tighter monetary policy. However, under Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023), inflation more than doubled, peaking above 21 percent as recession, currency crises, and supply shocks battered the economy. The current administration of Bola Tinubu (2023-present) has witnessed the sharpest surge yet, which was above 34 percent in late 2024, as this was driven by subsidy removal, naira float, and imported inflation. Though the official rate now claims to have fallen to 18.02 percent after statistical rebasing, Nigerians still endure the steepest cost-of-living crisis in the nation’s history.
Across these 24 years of democratic governance, the pattern is unmistakable, showing that Nigeria’s inflation is structural, not cyclical. It is rooted in weak productivity, fiscal indiscipline, policy inconsistency, and dependence on imports. While numbers fluctuate, the hardship remains constant. Inflation may fall on paper, but it never leaves the market stalls, the bus parks, or the kitchens of ordinary Nigerians.
Efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to fight inflation through higher interest rates have achieved little because monetary tools alone cannot fix structural weaknesses. The way forward demands a broader agenda through reviving domestic production, securing farmlands, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, curbing fiscal leakages, and reforming energy and transport infrastructure to cut costs. Until then, inflation data will continue to serve as statistical comfort in an economic storm.
Inflation is not just a number; it is a mirror of national mismanagement. For now, Nigerians have learned to distrust figures that contradict the evidence of their daily struggles. A fall to 18.02 percent may please policymakers and investors, but it changes nothing for the teacher whose salary buys less each month or the parents who must choose between school fees and food.
Economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again, not living impoverished.
The latest World Bank Nigeria Development Update delivers a chilling verdict, as 139 million Nigerians, over half of the nation’s population, are said to be living in poverty. The report, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” praises Nigeria’s bold macroeconomic reforms but warns that the gains have yet to trickle down to the people.
Poverty in Nigeria is not just growing; it’s metastasizing. The World Bank’s 139 million estimate translates to roughly six in ten Nigerians living below the poverty line.
The numbers are stark. The implications are severe. And the solutions will require more than incremental policy tweaks. What the nation is witnessing is an emergency, one that demands bold leadership, systemic change, and national resolve.
Despite measurable progress on paper indicating improved revenue inflows, a more stable foreign exchange market, and the easing of inflationary pressures, the truth in the streets tells a very different story. Nigeria today sits at a troubling crossroads where official statistics clash with the bitter truth of daily survival. Each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases inflation figures suggesting a country “stabilising.” Yet in the kitchens of Lagos, in the weary sighs of market women, and in the hollowed eyes of hungry children, a harsher reality unfolds, which is that empty pots don’t lie. Hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s truest inflation index.
Contrary to the promise by this administration of sweeping reforms to “reset” the economy, they unleashed an economic storm that continues to batter households. A bag of rice that sold for N35,000 two years ago now costs between N70,000 and N90,000. A crate of eggs has jumped from N1,200 to N6,200. Tomatoes, garri, and pepper, which are staples of everyday life, have drifted beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians.
This statistical adjustment may appear elegant on paper, but for millions who now spend 70 to 80 percent of their income on food, such figures are not just implausible; they’re insulting. Nigeria may have changed its base year, but it hasn’t changed the harsh arithmetic of survival.
Until the supposed recovery begins to show up in the kitchen, the market, and the wallet, the fall in inflation will remain what it truly is a statistical victory and a national deceit.
Again, we must understand that economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) indicted the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) and other ministries over administrative lapses that allowed the fictitious Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council (PFIPC) to operate.
Musa Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, stated that NITDA, alongside the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (OSGF), the Budget Office, and other bodies, failed to carry out adequate due diligence and standard operating procedures.
ICPC said however, clarified that the findings pointed to severe internal control weaknesses and administrative negligence rather than active official complicity by NITDA and the other affected agencies.
The briefing followed a 30-day investigation ordered by the president on July 7 into allegations surrounding the purported presidential council.
The commission also cleared the presidency and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of any wrongdoing but blamed institutional lapses in several ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs).
Aliyu said investigators established that Adeniyi Adeyemi, the director-general, was never appointed by the federal government and that the PFIPC had no legal existence.
“As you may recall, on the 7th of July, Mr. President directed the ICPC to conduct an investigation into the fake Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council and submit a report within 30 days,” he said.
“Today, exactly within the stipulated period, we have submitted an interim report based on our interactions with all stakeholders involved.”
According to Aliyu, Tinubu directed the commission to make its findings public in the interest of transparency and accountability.
He said the investigation found that Adeyemi’s purported appointment letter was forged.
“It has been established that Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was never appointed by the Federal Government or any authority whatsoever,” he said.
“The Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council, which sometimes they called the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council, was never established by any law, executive order or any valid instrument of government.
“The appointment letter presented by Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was completely forged alongside similar documents used to perpetuate the illegal activities of the fake agency.”
Aliyu stated that a purported government gazette used to legitimise the organisation was also fabricated.
“If you recall, there was a gazette which he used to support the fake agency. That gazette is an illegal document that never passed through the processes prescribed by law,” he stated.
“Our investigation found that the office used by the fake agency was the office of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council. The office was broken into and access was gained illegally. That was how he was able to operate from there.”
Aliyu also revealed that investigators uncovered two additional fictitious government agencies allegedly created by the suspect — the FCT Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) and the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency/Public-Private Partnership (FIPA-PPP).
According to him, fake legislative instruments were used to create the agencies and open bank accounts.
Despite the elaborate scheme, the ICPC chairman said the investigation found no evidence that federal government funds were disbursed to the fake council.
“Our investigation found that no funds of the federal government were approved or disbursed to the fake PFIPC,” he said.
“We also discovered no weaknesses in the systems of the State House or the Central Bank of Nigeria during our investigation. The fake appointment letter did not originate from the presidency.
“Our investigation found that some public officers failed to carry out due diligence and failed to comply with standard operating procedures in their ministries and departments. That gave him the opportunity to carry out these illegal acts.”
Nigeria tax system is build on taxing prosperity not poverty, according to Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).
Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service
Adedeji, also dismissed the insinuation that the government’s tax reform is aimed at extracting money from Nigerians .
He said the essence of reform is creating an economic environment where individuals and businesses can prosper.
Dr. Adedeji made the clarifications on Sunday night while appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today, where he defended the administration’s tax reforms and addressed concerns over rising government revenue amid the economic hardship facing Nigerians.
According to him, the government’s objective is to tax the fruits of investment rather than the investment itself.
“For us at Nigeria Tax, we are not there to extract. Our focus is not revenue. I don’t want to tax poverty. I’m to tax the fruit, not the seed, and I’m to tax the return, not investment.”
Adedeji explained that the government would generate more revenue as businesses became more profitable, without necessarily increasing the tax burden on individuals and companies.
He said a company that made N100 in profit could generate N30 in tax revenue for the government, but if its profit increased to N200 or N300, government revenue would rise accordingly.
“So, if I want to make more, I must work for you to make more. And that is why it is in the best interest of us in Nigeria Revenue Service that businesses are doing well, individuals are doing well,” he said.
He said the approach was consistent with President Bola Tinubu’s economic agenda, which seeks to remove barriers to investment and create a more conducive environment for businesses to operate and expand.
Adedeji cited reforms in the electricity sector as part of the government’s efforts to stimulate economic activity.
He noted that the Electricity Act had devolved powers to state governments to generate, transmit and distribute electricity, arguing that improved power supply would boost production and productivity across the economy.
Prof Chidi Oguamanam, Nigerian scholar, has been invited to serve as a member of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO’s) World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology.
Prof Chidi Oguamanam,
The appointment, which covers four years from 2026 to 2029, recognises Oguamanam’s contributions to the ethics of science and technology and related disciplines.
The invitation was conveyed in a letter from UNESCO on Saturday, which described the commission as an independent advisory body and forum for reflection on major ethical challenges arising from advances in science and technology.
The letter stated, “Recognising your significant contributions to the ethics of science and technology and related disciplines, it is my honour to invite you to become a member of UNESCO’s World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology for a period of four years, from 2026 to 2029.”
Established in 1998, the commission brings together experts from different regions and disciplines to examine ethical issues associated with scientific and technological developments, climate change and the environment.
UNESCO said regional balance was important to the commission’s membership to promote multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary debate on emerging ethical challenges.
According to the organisation, the commission provides guidance and recommendations through its reports to UNESCO, its member states, the scientific community, policymakers, civil society and other stakeholders.
Its previous work has contributed to global normative instruments, including the Declaration of Ethical Principles in Relation to Climate Change adopted in 2017 and the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence adopted in 2021.
UNESCO noted that the commission had recently published reports examining the ethics of quantum computing and space exploration and utilisation.
The organisation said the commission would now focus on new areas identified for its future work programme, including emerging ethical challenges arising from scientific and technological developments.
In inviting Oguamanam to join the commission, UNESCO expressed confidence in his expertise and active contribution to the development of its forthcoming reports.
The organisation also said it expected members to contribute to “horizon scanning” of emerging ethical challenges and help identify issues that should be addressed in the commission’s next cycle.
Oguamanam’s appointment adds to Nigeria’s representation in international discussions on the ethical implications of science, technology and innovation.
He is expected to serve on the commission alongside experts from different regions and academic disciplines during the 2026–2029 term.
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