General News
Nigeria’s Inflation Drop: Has Life Become Any Easier?
By Blaise Udunze
When the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday announced that Nigeria’s inflation rate had dropped to 18.02 percent in September 2025, the news was met with official applause. Government officials hailed it as evidence that the economy is recovering. Yet, for the millions of Nigerians struggling to buy food, pay rent, or fuel their generators, the question remains painfully simple: has life become any easier? The answer, for most Nigerians, is no.
Inflation has long been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn economic afflictions that has been eroding purchasing power, distorting markets, and deepening poverty. The recent “decline” in inflation has not eased the everyday hardship of ordinary people. Prices are still rising, incomes remain stagnant, and hope for relief feels distant.
Nigeria’s inflation is fundamentally cost-push in nature, not demand-driven. Rising energy prices, unstable foreign exchange, high transport costs, and insecurity in food-producing regions continue to fuel cost increases across all sectors. The removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, though intended to restore fiscal discipline, have instead unleashed a new wave of inflationary pain. Each naira devaluation has made imports costlier, and with Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported food, fuel, and raw materials, the consequences are devastating for consumers.
This disconnect between the headline figures and the lived reality has deepened public distrust. Many Nigerians believe official inflation data do not reflect the economic pain they face daily. Critics, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have flagged weaknesses in Nigeria’s inflation measurement system: outdated expenditure weights dating back to 2003/2004, poor representation of the informal sector, and underweighted essentials like food and energy. Because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is infrequently rebased, it often lags behind real market conditions, which makes the official inflation rate appear lower than what citizens actually experience.
Independent trackers such as the “Jollof Index,” which measures the cost of cooking a basic Nigerian meal, consistently show higher inflation than the NBS reports. To most households, this is not a debate about methodology but about survival. A N1,000 note that once covered dinner now barely buys a few milk cups of rice. A civil servant’s salary, unchanged for years, has lost more than half its value. The supposed inflation “drop” is deceptive to those whose plates are emptier and whose transport costs have tripled.
Inflation has been a recurring symptom of Nigeria’s economic fragility since the return to democracy in 1999. Under Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), inflation briefly spiked to 28 percent but eventually stabilized at single digits through reforms and debt relief. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2007-2010) faced steady price rises amid Niger Delta unrest and weak policy continuity. Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) managed to keep inflation moderate, averaging about 10 percent, helped by oil windfalls and tighter monetary policy. However, under Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023), inflation more than doubled, peaking above 21 percent as recession, currency crises, and supply shocks battered the economy. The current administration of Bola Tinubu (2023-present) has witnessed the sharpest surge yet, which was above 34 percent in late 2024, as this was driven by subsidy removal, naira float, and imported inflation. Though the official rate now claims to have fallen to 18.02 percent after statistical rebasing, Nigerians still endure the steepest cost-of-living crisis in the nation’s history.
Across these 24 years of democratic governance, the pattern is unmistakable, showing that Nigeria’s inflation is structural, not cyclical. It is rooted in weak productivity, fiscal indiscipline, policy inconsistency, and dependence on imports. While numbers fluctuate, the hardship remains constant. Inflation may fall on paper, but it never leaves the market stalls, the bus parks, or the kitchens of ordinary Nigerians.
Efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to fight inflation through higher interest rates have achieved little because monetary tools alone cannot fix structural weaknesses. The way forward demands a broader agenda through reviving domestic production, securing farmlands, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, curbing fiscal leakages, and reforming energy and transport infrastructure to cut costs. Until then, inflation data will continue to serve as statistical comfort in an economic storm.
Inflation is not just a number; it is a mirror of national mismanagement. For now, Nigerians have learned to distrust figures that contradict the evidence of their daily struggles. A fall to 18.02 percent may please policymakers and investors, but it changes nothing for the teacher whose salary buys less each month or the parents who must choose between school fees and food.
Economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again, not living impoverished.
The latest World Bank Nigeria Development Update delivers a chilling verdict, as 139 million Nigerians, over half of the nation’s population, are said to be living in poverty. The report, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” praises Nigeria’s bold macroeconomic reforms but warns that the gains have yet to trickle down to the people.
Poverty in Nigeria is not just growing; it’s metastasizing. The World Bank’s 139 million estimate translates to roughly six in ten Nigerians living below the poverty line.
The numbers are stark. The implications are severe. And the solutions will require more than incremental policy tweaks. What the nation is witnessing is an emergency, one that demands bold leadership, systemic change, and national resolve.
Despite measurable progress on paper indicating improved revenue inflows, a more stable foreign exchange market, and the easing of inflationary pressures, the truth in the streets tells a very different story. Nigeria today sits at a troubling crossroads where official statistics clash with the bitter truth of daily survival. Each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases inflation figures suggesting a country “stabilising.” Yet in the kitchens of Lagos, in the weary sighs of market women, and in the hollowed eyes of hungry children, a harsher reality unfolds, which is that empty pots don’t lie. Hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s truest inflation index.
Contrary to the promise by this administration of sweeping reforms to “reset” the economy, they unleashed an economic storm that continues to batter households. A bag of rice that sold for N35,000 two years ago now costs between N70,000 and N90,000. A crate of eggs has jumped from N1,200 to N6,200. Tomatoes, garri, and pepper, which are staples of everyday life, have drifted beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians.
This statistical adjustment may appear elegant on paper, but for millions who now spend 70 to 80 percent of their income on food, such figures are not just implausible; they’re insulting. Nigeria may have changed its base year, but it hasn’t changed the harsh arithmetic of survival.
Until the supposed recovery begins to show up in the kitchen, the market, and the wallet, the fall in inflation will remain what it truly is a statistical victory and a national deceit.
Again, we must understand that economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
Kashifu Inuwa, Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), has called for stronger collaboration among government regulators to accelerate the establishment of Nigeria’s National Regulatory Sandbox, describing inter-agency cooperation as the cornerstone for building an innovation-friendly regulatory ecosystem.
The Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Kashifu Inuwa, CCIE, represented by the National Coordinator of the Office for Nigerian Digital Innovation (ONDI), Mrs. Victoria Fabunmi, delivering his remarks at the National Regulatory Sandbox Governance and Implementation Planning Workshop held in Abuja.
Speaking through the National Coordinator of the Office for Nigerian Digital Innovation (ONDI), Ms. Victoria Fabunmi, at the National Regulatory Sandbox Governance and Implementation Planning Workshop in Abuja, Inuwa said the success of the initiative depends on regulators working collectively to develop a framework that promotes technological innovation while preserving regulatory integrity and public trust.
He noted that the workshop marks a significant transition from the design phase of the project to its implementation stage, where regulators are expected to jointly refine and validate the proposed governance structure before its rollout.
According to him, ONDI has spent several months laying the foundation for the initiative through extensive stakeholder consultations, ecosystem mapping, regulatory assessments and the preparation of a draft governance and implementation framework.
“The work completed so far provides a solid foundation, but the National Regulatory Sandbox can only achieve its objectives through collective ownership by all relevant regulatory institutions,” he said.
The NITDA Director General explained that the Technical Working Group was deliberately established as a collaborative platform to harness the expertise, experience and statutory mandates of participating agencies in shaping a regulatory model tailored to Nigeria’s innovation landscape.
He said the workshop was designed to critically review the proposed governance framework, test its assumptions and incorporate practical recommendations from stakeholders to ensure that the final model is inclusive, effective and adaptable to the country’s rapidly evolving digital economy.
Inuwa observed that while government institutions have different regulatory responsibilities, those differences should be viewed as strengths that can support the development of a coordinated and flexible implementation framework capable of responding to emerging technologies.
He further stated that the engagement would also establish clear implementation pathways, strengthen institutional partnerships and identify priority actions required to operationalise the National Regulatory Sandbox.
Expressing optimism about the outcome of the deliberations, the NITDA boss said the workshop would help build a shared national vision for the initiative while creating an enabling environment where innovators can safely develop, test and scale new technologies under appropriate regulatory supervision.
He commended participants for their commitment to strengthening Nigeria’s digital innovation ecosystem and encouraged them to make meaningful contributions that would shape a practical, innovation-driven regulatory framework capable of supporting sustainable economic growth and enhancing the country’s global competitiveness.
Speaking on the National Regulatory Sandbox journey and current worksream, Ms Ojonoka Yusufu, Implementing Partner Druve, said the initiative would provide a coordinated framework through which innovators and regulators can work together to test emerging technologies while ensuring compliance with existing laws and regulations.
She explained that the workshop was convened to build a shared understanding among participating regulators and stakeholders, develop consensus on the Sandbox’s operating model, identify implementation gaps before rollout and agree on the next steps for its successful implementation.
“We do not have anything set in stone yet. The idea is to work together to build a common understanding and ensure that all participating regulators and stakeholders are aligned on the objectives and implementation of the National Regulatory Sandbox,” she said.
Highlighting the importance of the initiative, Yusufu noted that Nigeria’s Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector remains one of the country’s highest contributors to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the nation’s startup ecosystem continues to attract significant global investment.
She observed that Nigerian startups are creating jobs, attracting foreign investment and positioning the country as a leading innovation destination in Africa. According to her, the rapid expansion of startups beyond traditional sectors such as financial technology into healthcare, mobility, agriculture and other industries has made closer regulatory coordination increasingly necessary.
Yusufu added that the National Regulatory Sandbox is backed by the Nigeria Startup Act, providing the legal foundation required to drive responsible innovation and improve the country’s regulatory environment.
She described the Sandbox as a collaborative, multi-agency innovation governance mechanism that complements, rather than replaces, existing regulatory institutions.
Techeconomy, a leading technology and digital economy publication, will celebrate its ninth anniversary with a one-day conference and awards ceremony aimed at promoting conversations on Nigeria’s digital economy and recognising excellence in innovation and technology leadership.
Techeconomy
The anniversary event, scheduled for Sept. 24 at the Civic Centre, Victoria Island, Lagos, will feature GrowthX by Techeconomy, a conference expected to bring together policymakers, regulators, industry leaders, investors and innovators to examine the future of Nigeria’s digital economy.
The event will also host the Technology Innovation and Leadership Awards (TiLAwards), which will honour organisations and individuals for outstanding contributions to innovation, leadership and digital transformation across various sectors.
According to a statement issued on Thursday by Peter Oluka, Editor of Techeconomy and organiser of the event, said, the anniversary celebration is intended to reflect on Nigeria’s technology journey over the past nine years while fostering dialogue on emerging opportunities and challenges shaping the country’s digital future.
Oluka said the event would provide a platform for stakeholders from the public and private sectors to exchange ideas on technology, innovation, entrepreneurship, digital policy and economic growth.
He added that the conference would feature keynote presentations, panel discussions and networking sessions involving industry experts, government officials, business executives and technology entrepreneurs.
According to him, the TiLAwards will recognise outstanding organisations and individuals whose innovations and leadership have significantly contributed to the growth of Nigeria’s technology and business ecosystem.
As part of activities marking the anniversary, Techeconomy has invited media organisations to partner with the event through news coverage, publicity and participation.
The publication also expressed appreciation to members of the media and industry stakeholders for their support over the past nine years, describing their collaboration as instrumental to its growth and continued coverage of Nigeria’s technology, business and digital economy.
The organisers said details of the conference programme, speakers and partnership opportunities would be unveiled ahead of the event.
International Trade Union Confederation, (ITUC-Africa), representing trade unions from countries in Africa, has called on Nigeria and other African governments to ensure that industrialisation translates into improved living standards for workers and ordinary citizens.
According to ITUC-Africa, economic growth must lift Nigerians and other Africans out of poverty rather than deepen inequality, frowning at Nigeria’s government plans to remove subsidy on electricity.
Delivering his opening remarks at the New Energy for Africa 11 Convening: African Workers’ Contributions to Energy Sovereignty, Green Industrialization, and a Common African for COP31, Akhator Joel Odigie, general secretary of ITUC-Africa, said, industrialisation remains central to Nigeria and Africa’s liberation and development agenda but warned that it would be meaningless if it failed to improve the welfare of the continent’s people.
He faulted the plans by the Nigerian government to remove so-called subsidy on electricity in 2027, arguing that it is aimed at satisfying the Bretton Woods institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and the World Bank.
According to him, such removal would worsen the poverty rate in Nigeria and regress any marginal progress towards industrialisation. Subsidy removal will make electricity inaccessible to workers and the majority of the citizens.
He said, “As we speak now, Nigeria is talking of subsidy removal on electricity. The plan is not to satisfy or help Nigerians, but IMF, World Bank and other donor countries. The talk that subsidy is bad economics is a lie. All developed economies depended on public sector-driven electricity and not private sector.
“For us as Africans, industrialisation is central to our liberation and development. It is part of our aspiration to define our own identity and achieve shared prosperity through an industrialised Africa. Unfortunately, that vision has yet to be realised.
“We have also come to understand that lamenting our circumstances is not enough. Identifying the barriers to Africa’s development or pointing fingers at those who may be responsible does not move us forward. The more important question is: What next? What solutions can we pursue together?
“It is from that perspective that we confront the reality that more than 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity, while privatisation continues to deny many people affordable access to energy. This compels us to ask: What can we do differently?”
According to him, organised labour believes industrialisation can be achieved without worsening the climate crisis if governments, workers and development partners commit to energy justice.
Odigie noted that “When we speak about sustainable industrialisation, we are asking how Africa can industrialise without increasing environmental degradation or worsening the climate challenges our people already experience every day.
“We know this is possible. But it will require negotiation, compromise and genuine partnerships. It demands serious discussions on technology transfer, skills development and financing.”
He stressed that developing technical skills and mobilising investment for energy infrastructure are essential if Africa is to industrialise sustainably, saying “These are not impossible skills to acquire. With the right investment and commitment, Africa can build them. Equally important is access to finance and the resources needed to develop the infrastructure that will support sustainable industrialisation.
“An industrialised Africa has little meaning if it does not improve the lives of our people. Our vision is an Africa where prosperity is shared.
“We must reverse the growing phenomenon of the working poor. We must end the situation where women, children and older persons bear the greatest burden whenever governments attempt to balance national budgets.
“What does prosperity mean if ordinary people cannot enjoy a decent quality of life? A worker who returns home after a long day’s work should be able to switch on a fan during hot weather, watch television, listen to the news and spend meaningful time with family because electricity is available, reliable and affordable.
“If our people cannot enjoy these basic necessities, then what kind of prosperity are we really talking about?
“Energy justice means energy that is accessible, affordable and capable of improving people’s lives.”
Odigie also renewed ITUC-Africa’s campaign for stronger public participation in Africa’s energy sector, citing Finland as an example of how governments can ensure affordable electricity while working with private investors.
“Recently, we visited Finland, where we observed a successful model that combines public and private participation, with strong public leadership. Energy there is affordable. In fact, electricity costs less in Finland than it does here in Nairobi.
“Our hosts explained that this is possible because the state retains an important role in the energy sector, including the ability to influence pricing to ensure affordability for everyone.”
Ahead of the COP31 climate negotiations, he called for closer collaboration between organised labour and the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), saying trade unions are partners in governance rather than adversaries.
“Trade unions are not antagonistic to governments, even though we are sometimes misunderstood.
“Our responsibility is to strengthen accountability and help governments perform better because, from time to time, leaders can become too comfortable.”
Using a metaphor that drew applause from participants, Odigie likened the role of trade unions to keeping leaders “close to the fire.”
“Our responsibility is to keep the feet of our leaders close to the fire so that their heads do not become too cold. We want them to continue thinking clearly, making sound decisions and remaining connected to the realities faced by ordinary people.
“That is why we are not in opposition. We are not enemies.”
He said organised labour’s partnership with the AGN is intended to ensure African governments enter international climate negotiations with the full backing of workers across the continent.
Speaking, Dr Nana Amoah, chair of the African Group of Negotiators, AGN, said Africa’s energy transition presents both an urgent challenge and a historic opportunity, lamenting that “More than 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity, even though our continent possesses exceptional solar, wind, hydro and geothermal resources. Yet Africa continues to receive only a very small share of global clean-energy investment.”
Represented by Dr George Manful, AGN Senior Advisor, Amoah, said: “This imbalance must be corrected if the transition is to support Africa’s development rather than reproduce existing patterns of dependence, extraction and inequality.
“For the African Group of Negotiators, a just transition cannot be measured solely by installed megawatts, emissions reductions or new electricity connections. It must also be measured by the quality of jobs created, affordability of energy, protection of workers, participation of women and young people, development of local industries, and the capacity of African countries to retain value from their natural resources.
“Initiatives such as Mission 300 must therefore go beyond expanding access. They must strengthen public institutions, mobilise affordable and debt-sensitive finance, support local manufacturing and skills development, and guarantee that no worker, community or vulnerable group is left behind.
“Africa’s critical minerals must similarly become a foundation for green industrialisation—not another chapter of raw-material extraction. Our policies must promote local processing, technology transfer, decent work, environmental integrity and equitable participation in global value chains.”
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