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Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil

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This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,

According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.

They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.

Here’s why.

U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.

That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.

Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.

At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.

U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.

Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.

For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.

On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.

Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.

Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.

That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.

Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.

With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.

Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.

While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.

Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.

At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.

So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.

 


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Nigeria CommunicationsWeek believes that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. So since 2007, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and how they affect lives.

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Leo Stan @ 70: Blessed and Bruised by Country, Eyes Next Disruption

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One a quiet Wednesday, February 22, 1956,  in Ubomiri, Mbaitoli, Imo State, the family of Chief and Lolo Ebenezer Ekeh leaped for joy at the birth of Leonard Stanley Nnamdi Ekeh- their second son.

Leo Stan @ 70: Blessed and Bruised by Country, Eyes Next Disruption

Leonard Stanley Nnamdi Ekeh

His birth was both cosmic, and disruptive as his journey down this 70 years on earth has proven.

Leonard Stanley Nnamdi Ekeh, popularly know as Leo Stan Ekeh or LSE is human by birth but profound, rare and has higher consciousness.

Imbued with deep intuition, intense creativity, and compassionate nature, Leo Stan possesses critical thinking ability.

He has relentless drive to succeed across multiple facets of life. This is a self-made construct driven by his deep spiritual and  purposeful living, rather than just mere survival.

Despite the recurring and abrupt reversal  of government policies, which leave companies including his hemorrhaging, Leo Stan has remained committed and actively participate in the development and nation-building of Nigeria.

Am one of the lucky people to have known him up close and personal for nearly 30 years.

He has endured lots of back biting and campaigns of calumny from competitors and even betrayals from least expected people.

But his tenacity makes him stand firm on his beliefs regardless of  feelings, or circumstances.

He has stumbled in businesses, failed in some ventures; but he always get right up.  At one point, he nearly lost his head selling international commodities.

LSE takes every loss with equanimity as a dogged fighter.

A serial entrepreneur and with eyes for great minds, Leo Stan does not just walk through life; he leaves a trail of light, lifting everyone around him with kindness and wisdom. And there are testimonials.

For me, he is a pillar of strength and a beacon of hope. My  benefactor.

He is also a benefactor to many. He has a way of making associates feel vital, loved, and valued.

Today is his Platinum Birthday but his roads have not always been paved with gold.

His early life was as ordinary as it can be, LSE attended Holy Ghost College, Owerri for his secondary education.

During his early years, he wanted to own the biggest transport company in Nigeria.

He later went to India for his university education, where he received a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics from Punjab University.

Leo Stan believes that studying in India was a great turning point in his life because he found the economy of India a realistic economy”.

He later also earned an MSc in Risk Management from the University of Nottingham.

At 70, he attained his height by trust in God, determination and CAN DO attitude.

Today, his  business opinions and advisory are  welcome around the world.

Leo Stan once told me “I saw myself from the beginning even when my parents were alive as an orphan. It drives me.”

He has three brothers and two sisters, His mother was a dietitian, and his father was a nurse

“I come from a lineage of people who served God dedicatedly. I am a miracle child and I remember my mother had always predicted that I would be great. I have siblings but I live my life as if I am the only child of my parents” he said

He believes that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world.

His solid prints in the business world is well documented. He has his hands in his hands in several businesses including ICT, e-commerce, broadcasting, oil and gas, media publishing and real estate.

Leo Stan is a man of many firsts: he pioneered a new world of digital economy at a time the country was deeply analogue both in the workplace and in schools.

The Nigerian media industry, from advertising to newspapers, owes him much gratitude for changing their operational processes and methodologies from mundane, medieval analogue to the robust and elegant digital platform.

Within 30 years, he has transformed a start-up that sprouted from a make-shift apartment that also doubled as his home into a digital conglomerate with incursions into oil and gas, entertainment and property.

Leo Stan started Zinox Technologies Limited in 2001 to manufacture computers.

He ensured that at launch Zinox Computers already had the WHQL certification, the first in sub-Saharan Africa, consolidated 5 years later with the attainment of the NIS ISO 2000: 9001 QMS Certification.

In October 2013, the company announced the production of its computer tablet line named Zipad

Task Systems, Technology Distributions Limited, Konga (Africa’s foremost truly composite e-commerce outpost combining offline-online mix in service delivery), Konga Radio, and TD Mobile, to name a few, complete the ensemble of businesses in his thriving conglomerate.

In all his companies, there is a growth pathway for every employee.

He deliberately creates a system that rewards every hardworking and dedicated employee.

From drivers sponsored to universities and returning to the conglomerate as degree holders to persons who joined the organisation as janitors working their way up the corporate ladder, he has brought his humanity to bear on people around him.

Making some lowly staff home-owners and sponsoring indigent students to universities at home and abroad comes to him as a routine.

Just a few days ago, ahead of his 70th birthday, he offered University scholarships to additional 1,000 Nigerian indigent wizkids to study Computer Science in Federal Universities. He is committing about N10 billion to the scholarship scheme.

This is so the country’s private and public sectors have a new generation of tech wizkids to support the economy’s growth.

Recall that his group has trained and retrained over 3000 Nigerians and donated tech centres to over 25 institutions nationwide just to mention a few.

The former alter boy  and chorister in his local community Catholic Church at Ubomiri, now a multi-billionaire, has stayed humble.

He  draws a distinct line between capitalism and welfarism.

Leo Stan is  great man, a leader with unparalleled integrity and a heart of gold.

He  has earned over 6o international and local awards over many years of incisive entrepreneurship, was equally singled out and honoured by former President Olusegun Obasanjo on the occasion of Nigeria’s Independence Anniversary on October 1, 2001 with an ICON OF HOPE award as a pride to modern Nigeria and as a model for Nigerian youths.

Again, President Obasanjo honoured him with another national award – the Order of the Federal Republic (OFR) in 2003.

A Fellow of the Nigeria Computer Society, the umbrella body of all computer associations in Nigeria, he was also awarded the pioneer ICT Personality of the Year by this professional body.

In November 2019, Ekeh was honoured by President Muhammadu Buhari with the National Productivity Order of Merit award for his sustained leadership in the area of Information and Communications Technology (ICT).

With over four Doctorate Degrees (Honorary) and fifteen fellowships from recognized institutions and as a former global advisor to Microsoft, as well as Forbes Best of Africa Leading Tech Icon Award his outstanding entrepreneurship.

Leo Stan is Ochiririozuo Ubomiri, Ebekuo Dike, Ideato and Iyi of Mbaitoli

Above all these, he prioritizes family well-being as a loving, responsible and dependable rock.
He nurtures a positive home, respects his partner- Chioma, and dedicates time to actively engage with his children.
For, Leo Stan is more than a mentor—he is a teacher, a guide, and an inspiration.
My immense gratitude  for your patience, kindness, and for empowering me to overcome challenges.
I am forever grateful for your investment in my personal and professional growth.
At this his blessed age, he is not showing signs of tiredness, he is planning of the next positive disruption. His eyes are set on the next big bang for the benefit of mankind.
Sir, i tap into your grace and take charge of my own life and leave behind negative influences.
Happy birthday sir, may the years head be greater.

 


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How JustMarkets Is Empowering African Traders with Global Market Access

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Africa’s trading community is rapidly growing, evolving, and showing increasing interest in financial markets. From Lagos to Nairobi, from Accra to Johannesburg, more and more people are exploring financial markets as a way to develop skills, earn income, and participate in the global economy. But the ability to trade isn’t enough; traders also need reliable technology, fair conditions, and tools that help them make informed decisions and trade effectively.

How JustMarkets Is Empowering African Traders with Global Market Access

JustMarkets

This is where trading platforms like JustMarkets make a significant contribution to the development and expansion of the trading community in the African region.

By combining global market access with a results-oriented trading environment, JustMarkets helps African traders compete head-to-head with those in the world’s largest financial centers, providing access to tight spreads, a wide range of analytical materials, and a variety of account types.

Breaking Barriers to Global Markets

For years, traders in emerging markets have faced limitations: slow platforms, a limited range of instruments, low liquidity, wide spreads, and infrastructure that hinders professional trading and effective analysis. Today, JustMarkets addresses this significant gap by providing African traders with access to a wide range of global financial instruments through a single, optimized online platform.

Now traders have the opportunity to test short-term strategies, long-term portfolio diversification, and learn how markets work. Traders can now explore opportunities in forex, commodities, indices, and stock markets without geographic barriers or technical difficulties.

A Trading Platform Built for Performance

Technology plays a critical role in modern trading. Market conditions can change in seconds, and execution speed often makes the difference between opportunity and missed entry. The JustMarkets leading trading platform is designed to support fast, confident decisions in real time.

  • Ultra-fast execution. Engineered for low-latency order processing, the app helps ensure trades are executed quickly and efficiently when markets move.

  • Full risk management. Stop-loss, take-profit, and position sizing can be managed directly from the chart, helping traders stay disciplined and protect capital.

  • Advanced charting. Interactive charts, multiple timeframes, drawing tools, and built-in indicators provide the analytical depth needed for informed trading decisions.

  • Real-time alerts. Instant notifications about price movements, order events, and key market developments help traders stay connected even when they’re away from the screen.

  • Secure authentication. Biometric login, encrypted data transmission, and advanced internal security protocols ensure that accounts and personal data remain protected.

This combination of speed, usability, and security makes professional-grade trading accessible from anywhere, even on the go with JustMarkets mobile trading app.

Trade a Wide Range of Global Markets

Access to diverse instruments allows traders to adapt to different market conditions and explore multiple strategies. JustMarkets provides African traders with the ability to participate in major asset classes worldwide.

  • Forex. Trade major, minor, and exotic currency pairs with competitive pricing and deep liquidity.

  • Gold & Metals. Access precious metals such as XAUUSD and XAGUSD, popular instruments for active traders and those seeking exposure to global macro trends with competitive spreads.

  • Indices. Engage with leading global stock indices including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, DAX, and FTSE – markets that reflect the performance of major economies.

  • Stocks. Trade shares of global companies and high-volume market leaders, opening opportunities to follow international corporate trends.

  • Energy. Speculate on key energy commodities such as WTI and Brent crude oil, instruments often influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic developments.

This broad market selection helps traders diversify and respond flexibly to changing global conditions.

Supporting Trader Development

Expanding technical, educational, and analytical capabilities extends beyond technology. JustMarkets also places a special emphasis on helping traders build knowledge and confidence. Access to educational materials, market analysis, and structured risk management tools fosters a more disciplined and informed approach to trading, including setting trading goals.

For many African traders, this means moving from random speculation and emotional trades to a more professional mindset, and most importantly, understanding that long-term success depends on strategy, risk management, continuous learning, and a cool head.

Connecting Africa to the Global Financial Ecosystem

Financial markets are becoming increasingly interconnected, with traders from all regions now participating in the same global capital flow. Offering advanced tools such as flexible leverage, fast order execution, and broad access to markets and trading assets, the JustMarkets online trading platform helps African traders become active participants in this ecosystem with full access to analytical and educational materials, as well as cutting-edge technological solutions for managing trades, accounts, and open positions. JustMarkets’ commitment to empowering traders, increasing financial literacy, and enabling people to engage with global markets on a level playing field. As the African trading community grows, online trading platforms like JustMarkets, which combine performance, accessibility, and security, will play a key role in this process. But pay attention that risk management still is a key to success as CFD trading involves risks.


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Court Freezes MCSN Copyright Levies amid Record Label Legal Battle

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Justice Ambrose Lewis-Allagoa of the Federal High Court, Lagos, has issued an interim Mareva injunction freezing copyright levy funds due to the Musical Copyright Society of Nigeria (MCSN).

Court Freezes MCSN Copyright Levies amid Record Label Legal Battle

The order prevents the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and at least 20 commercial banks from disbursing these funds until further court proceedings.

The injunction stems from Suit No. FHC/L/CS/207/2026, following an ex parte application filed on February 5, 2026, by the Record Label Proprietors’ Initiative on behalf of 11 major record labels and music companies.

Plaintiffs include industry heavyweights such as Mavin Records, Davido Music Worldwide, Chocolate City Music, Universal Music Group, Sony Music Africa, and Warner Music South Africa.

The plaintiffs, through their attorney, sought to restrain the CBN from releasing any copyright levy funds related to sound recordings earmarked for MCSN.

They also asked the court to bar MCSN and its agents from accessing, transferring, or using the funds, whether received directly from the CBN or routed through commercial banks.


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