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Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil

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This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,

According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.

They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.

Here’s why.

U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.

That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.

Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.

At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.

U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.

Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.

For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.

On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.

Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.

Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.

That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.

Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.

With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.

Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.

While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.

Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.

At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.

So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.

 


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d.light Provides 10,000 Solar Home Systems to Refugees

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d.light, the global provider of transformational household products and affordable finance for low-income households, is providing 10,000 subsidized solar home systems to refugees who have fled conflict in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo and who are now living in refugee camps in Northern and Western Uganda.

The 10,000 units are part of a wider initiative to supply 23,000 solar home systems to Ugandan refugee communities.

The project is being funded by a USD$3.4M grant from Private Sector Foundation Uganda (PSFU), a body made up of business associations, companies and public sector agencies in Uganda: and Energising Development (EnDev), an international programme by the German, Dutch, Norwegian and Swiss governments to provide access to affordable, reliable, sustainable energy for delivering social, economic, and environmental change.

The project began in April and is scheduled to run for 12 months. Funds from the grant are subject to results based financing (RBF) and d.light will only receive funding for solar home systems that have been installed.

Each solar home system from d.light features three high-efficiency LED lights, an FM radio with MP3 playback, mobile phone charging capability, and a portable solar flashlight.

Commenting on the news, d.light’s Managing Director for Uganda Douglas Gavala said, “With this grant, we can expand the important work we’re doing to improve living conditions for underserved refugee communities from South Sudan, the DRC and elsewhere who are living in refugee camps in Uganda.

“A solar home system significantly improves the quality of life and wellbeing of a household – whether it’s providing entertainment or letting a family stay up to date on local and global news on the radio or enabling children to continue reading and studying after dark.

“As well as benefits at home, d.light products also bolster household income in Uganda’s refugee settlements by extending working hours for tradespeople and small businesses, and providing an income for residents who work as d.light salespeople in the settlements.

“By providing high-quality solar products at an affordable price, we are improving the quality of life for displaced people while simultaneously encouraging economic activity at a grassroots level.”

 


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DG NITDA Reiterates Needs for Safe and Inclusive Digital Environment

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To forge strategic partnerships and collaboration for the advancement of Nigeria’s digital transformation Agenda, the Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Kashifu Inuwa has reiterated the need for a safe and inclusive online environment responsible for human and Artificial Intelligence (AI) practices in country.

Inuwa made the statement while playing host to a team from TikTok who visited Agency’s Corporate Headquarters in Abuja to seek alliance towards bolstering the country, which aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu priority area of strengthening national security for peace and prosperity.

The DG stated that content moderation strategies will help in addressing online problems like hate speech, misinformation, and cyberbullying in relation to the protection of minors across the country.

“With the Code of practice for Interactive Computer Service Platforms/Internet Intermediaries in place, this has helped in ensuring digital safety in accordance with global best practice and content moderation to enhance security”, he said.

He further noted that “no organisation or institution can operate in silos, we need each other for the actualisation of our goals and objectives towards services delivery and for the advancement of the Nation.”

Highlighting some critical areas, Inuwa stated that leveraging on the platform will advance the country through Digital Literacy 4 All (DL4ALL), Capacity Building, knowledge sharing, trainings, and curbing misinformation, digital safety with the aim of creating a safer cyber space and empowering online environment for Nigerian users.

He added that the platform allows for creative expression through filters, stickers, and editing tools, entertainment and comedy are dominant themes, and informational videos on various topics are gaining traction which has become a launchpad for influencers and trends that can go viral.

Inuwa also explained that NITDA’s Strategic Roadmap and Action Plan 2.0 (SRAP 2024-2027) is structured around eight pillars which include; Fostering Digital Literacy and Cultivating Talents, Building a Robust Technology Research Ecosystem, Strengthening Policy Implementation and Legal Frameworks, Promoting Inclusive Access to Digital Infrastructure and Services, Enhancing Cybersecurity and Digital Trust, Nurturing an Innovative and Entrepreneurial Ecosystem, Forging Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations, and Cultivating a Vibrant organisational Culture with an Agile Workforce.

In her earlier remarks, the Head of Government Regulation and Public Policy TikTok Nigeria and West Africa, Mrs Tokunbo Ibrahim has revealed that NITDA is one of its biggest and critical stakeholders in Nigeria that has an outstanding strides and performance in advancing the digital economy sector.

Ibrahim commended NITDA for its various initiatives, programmes, and policies set in place and aligns with that of TikTok, providing the opportunity were Nigerians use the platform to market, sell and export their products and services as well as talents to the outside world and make a living out of it.
She pointed out that there are projects and programmes that TikTok platform has forge ties of collaboration with, like the Africa creator hub where they do campaigns for tech creator, support, empower, and educate them on how to create contents and explore other sections of the platform, changing their narrative and adding values to what they are doing.

Ibrahim also added that TikTok platform considers online safety as one of its critical areas to secure the cyber space by providing an avenue for users to thrive and be productive in their various activities.

TikTok is currently running African mall to push the narrative of Africa to the world and creators are being equipped with information that they can create contents for products and services in Nigeria, thus can be exported to other countries of the world attracting investments


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Dr. Adesina, AfDB Group President Calls for Media Transformation to Uplift Africa’s Global Narrative

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Dr Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank Group, delivered an impassioned plea for more balanced media coverage of Africa and its development, noting it was critical for changing false narratives.

Adesina said this on Thursday in a keynote speech to the All Africa’s Media summit in Nairobi, attended by nearly 300 participants from across the continent. He praised the crucial role the media plays in strengthening democracy and advancing inclusivity.

The Bank Group president said there were many positive developments in Africa yet the continent continues to suffer misrepresentations which undermine its economic progress and investment potential.

“Despite the significant progress within our continent, the prevailing media narrative often focuses on negative stereotypes, overlooking the substantial advancements and resilience Africa demonstrates,” he added.

Adesina said there was plenty of positive news to report about and highlighted the continent’s economic resilience regional and amid global challenges. He said that in 2023, Africa’s growth rate surpassed the global average, with 11 African nations ranked among the world’s fastest-growing economies.

Adesina referenced a 2021 Africa No Filter Report, which revealed significant adherence to outdated and negative clichés in media reports about Africa. “It’s time for change,” he declared. “We must reshape the narrative about Africa to reflect its true spirit and potential.”

He emphasised the critical nature of information and its ability to have a profound negative impact on development and investor perceptions even though an in-depth investigation by Moody’s Analytics had shown the continent was much less of a risk than many other continents.

“We must promote a balanced view that highlights both the challenges and the many successes of Africa. It’s about changing perceptions and showcasing Africa as a continent rich with opportunity and innovation.”

The Bank Group President also spoke about the challenges and transformations within the media sector, highlighting the impact of digital technology.

“The media landscape has dramatically shifted with the rise of the internet and mobile technology, leading to a proliferation of digital platforms,” Adesina declared.

“While this has democratised information, it has also complicated issues, the distinction between fact and fiction can become blurred.”

To counter unfair and unbalanced narratives, Adesina urged the creation of a powerful, globally respected African media and proposed strategic collaborations among regional financial institutions to support this cause, emphasising the need for media to act as a catalyst for development.

“We need to celebrate and promote the continent’s successes, turning the tide against the longstanding stereotypes that have clouded the global view of Africa… What you call yourself, is the name others will subscribe to you.”

“For as long as we continually denigrate ourselves and play into the hands of those who control the narrative about Africa, we will be stuck with a label that does not belong to us,” he concluded.

He highlighted the African Development Bank’s own successes which included maintaining a AAA credit rating and launching groundbreaking financial initiatives that have earned it respect as an innovative and successful multilateral development bank.

“We have proven that Africa can lead with innovation and strength in the global financial landscape,” the President remarked. “Yet, these achievements receive minimal attention compared to the persistent focus on Africa’s challenges.”

Adesina added that just one month ago, the Bank launched a landmark $750 million hybrid capital instrument, again with a Triple A rating, which was oversubscribed eight times. He described this as a huge “testament to the confidence and trust in Africa’s burgeoning financial capabilities.”

He pledged that the African Development Bank remained committed to supporting initiatives that would help the media present a more balanced and progressive portrayal of Africa and support its economic development.

In a discussion with Julie Gichuru of the Mastercard Foundation after his address, Adesina said Africa was blessed with energy sources, but millions remained without electricity. “This must change,” he said.

“We cannot industrialise in the dark, we cannot develop in the dark. Our children cannot be competitive in a world of darkness,” he concluded.


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