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Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil

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This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,

According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.

They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.

Here’s why.

U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.

That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.

Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.

At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.

U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.

Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.

For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.

On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.

Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.

Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.

That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.

Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.

With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.

Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.

While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.

Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.

At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.

So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.

 


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Dufil Prima Foods Brings Relief to Indigent Families in Abeokuta

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Dufil Prima Foods, makers of Indomie instant noodles, in partnership with the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society, extended its goodwill to the shores of Abeokuta, Ogun state, at a product distribution event on Tuesday 24 April, where cartons of Indomie noodles were distributed to the underprivileged, as part of its ongoing efforts to support families worst hit by the ongoing economic hardship.

The event which saw a thousand vulnerable families go home with a carton of Indomie each, individuals present were also provided with cooked noodles to help relieve their immediate hunger.

The outreach had in attendance members of the disabled community, orphans, widows, the elderly, pregnant women, and vulnerable families.

The outreach is in alignment with the brand’s goal to feed two million consumers across various cities and communities in Nigeria, by collaborating closely with recognized NGOs to ensure that only the most vulnerable persons in the various cities and communities are invited and given a carton of Indomie and a fresh bowl of the nourishing tasty noodles.

The event was graced with the presence of notable dignitaries including the representative of the Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development in Ogun State, Mrs. Wonuola Kassim; the Ogun State Chapter Chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Comrade Hammeed-Bello Aderinola; a representative of the Sector Commander of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Superintendent Adeoye Adejoke Asake; the Chairman of the Ogun State Police Community Relations Committee (PCRC), Venerable (Dr.) Samson Kunle Popoola, Chairman of the Peace Initiative Network, Dr. Femi Sodipo , and Trace PRO, CDR. Babatunde Akinbiyi, amongst others.

Mrs. Wonuola Kassim in her keynote address, commended the efforts of Dufil Prima Foods Ltd, and acknowledged that this was not the company’s first CSR initiative as she recalled that it had embarked on a similar venture in 2020.

“This program cannot be more timely than a time like this, when to feed becomes very difficult for most people. This is the kind of gesture which would linger for ages in the hearts of the beneficiaries. The objective of the palliative distribution is to alleviate the hardship faced by the citizens due to the recent removal of fuel subsidy by the Federal Government”, she said.

Speaking in the same vein, Popoola of the PCRC said: “We believe in PCRC that food security and eradication of hunger will go a long way in reducing the level of criminality in our society. What we have seen today is a conscious effort on the part of the organisers to see to the eradication of poverty, eradication of hunger and to support the food security initiative of the Government”.

Other dignitaries present also expressed their gratitude for Indomie and the organisers of the event, the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society. They commended their efforts for taking the right steps to ensure that families across the country are catered for in these challenging times.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains steadfast in its quest to provide satisfaction and put smiles on the faces of families across Nigeria.


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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