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GEJ vs GMB: Winner is… The Cable’s Verdict

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General Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan:
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Predicting the outcome of an election has never been this difficult.  The reason, according to The Cable is not too complex though: this is the first time since 1999 that the opposition party has gathered enormous momentum going into an election.

What’s more: there seems to be a blossoming coalition between Muhammadu Buhari and the south.

All you need do is look at the crowds and supporters at his rallies in the south, compared to the years gone by.

However, no one dare rules out an incumbent president in a developing country, so President Goodluck Jonathan should not be considered down and out.

The Cable said that but he has had a lot of negative publicity in his first term — which puts him at a disadvantage, at least with many people.

The election is a referendum on his government, not on Buhari’s regime of three decades ago. There are good reasons for Buhari to be hopeful that he would win.

And there are good reasons for Jonathan to believe that he too would win. We try to highlight each candidate’s hopes.

The Cable taps Buhari to win based on five factors:
Bigger Base

In 2003, 2007 and 2011, Buhari was essentially a northern candidate with little support in the south. But he was clearly the darling of the “core north” and not the middle belt.
Either as candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) or the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Buhari never had any impact in the south and most of the middle belt.
Today, as candidate of the bigger All Progressives Congress (APC) — which has swallowed ANPP and CPC, in addition to the south-west party, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) — Buhari has a bigger and broader base.
He never won 25% in any southern state before; this time, expect him to hit that threshold in all southern states, except perhaps Bayelsa.

Bigger Purse
The formation of APC has not only given Buhari a bigger national platform, his war chest is now heavier.
In the past, his finances were highly limited. He could not afford all the necessary logistics, such as buying enough campaign vehicles and maintaining them. He could not afford expensive media advertising.
His supporters often taxed themselves to make expenses on his behalf. In 2015, the story has changed.
Buhari is all over the newspapers, radio, TV and the Internet. He has a deep pocket courtesy of the support of governors such as Rotimi Amaechi and Aliyu Wamakko as well as wealthy Nigerians like Bola Tinubu and former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar.
Buhari, from struggling to fuel his campaign vehicles long ago, now uses chartered flights.

Bigger Youth Support
Buhari was never the darling of the educated youth population until now. In 2011, Jonathan monopolised the market with his hold on the social media, where the youth are the most active.
Buhari never had a Facebook page or Twitter handle. However, since he won the presidential ticket of his party in December, the story has changed completely. Youths who used to criticise Jonathan regularly on the social media simply moved to Buhari’s camp and, at some stage, drowned out pro-Jonathan voices.
They have also been creative and proactive, criticising every move of Jonathan swiftly and generating a lot of viral messages against the president.

Better Image
Buhari used to be seen as a religious fundamentalist who was bent on Islamising Nigeria. He had also been credited with a couple of statements that seemed to paint him in that light.
Long ago, he reportedly said Muslims should only vote for Muslims — a statement he denied. Last year, he was quoted as blaming Jonathan for the war against Boko Haram, reportedly saying a northerner gave Niger Delta militants but a southerner was instead killing northerners.
All these reports painted him as a northern and Islamic champion. These impressions have since vanished, starting possibly from the moment he was attacked in Kaduna last year by suspected Boko Haram militants.

Critical Issues
For once, the electioneering relegated sectional issues substantially to the background. Gone are the days of “it is our turn” or “Nigeria will be ungovernable if we don’t have it”.
Jonathan, as the sitting president, has been confronted with issues of insecurity and corruption which his opponents have highlighted very well.
Indeed, the message resonates well with many Nigerians who, despite opposing Buhari in the past, are now saying they would rather have him than four more years of Jonathan.
Issues such as the kidnap of Chibok schoolgirls, the alleged $20 billion missing oil money, poor power supply and the menace of Boko Haram are uppermost on their minds. In a sense, the “change” campaign is more of an anti-Jonathan sentiment.

NO, IT’S JONATHAN FOR SURE…
Incumbency Factor
In African politics, or the politics of underdeveloped countries for that matter, incumbents are hard to unseat.
Incumbents have been defeated in some nearby countries — such as Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal — but these deviations are not the rule.
In Nigeria’s history, incumbents have always returned: Tafawa Balewa (1960 and 1964, as prime minister), Shehu Shagari (1979 and 1983) and Olusegun Obasanjo (1999 and 2003).
Their returns were always controversial. So either steal, beg or borrow, Jonathan may use the advantage of incumbency to return to power.
The postponement of the election, for instance, is seen as a demonstration of incumbency power and it is believed that it has allowed Jonathan to re-strategise for victory.

The Nicodemus Factor
Although Buhari is dominating the airwaves, it could well be that those who are working for Jonathan are afraid of being “mobbed” and have decided to support him Nicodemusly (that means “secretly”, in case you are not familiar with the Bible story).
In some parts of the country, those known to be supporting Jonathan have been attacked in the past.
People lost their lives and property in 2011 for supporting Jonathan. There are various reports, mostly unconfirmed, that the northern elite are not well disposed to Buhari because of fear of vengeance.
Some traditional rulers are also thought to be apprehensive about a scarcity of goodies under an anti-corruption icon like Buhari.

Southern/Middle Belt emotion
Although Buhari now has a larger and broader base, there are those who will not vote for him simply because they think the north has a “born to rule” mentality.
No matter their misgivings with a Jonathan government, they will be happy not to have another northerner as president “so soon”.
Some southerners still refer to the past when the north ruled Nigeria from 1960 to 1999, minus the four combined years of Obasanjo and Ernest Shonekan.
This sentiment is still strong in some areas in the south, where some socio-cultural groups and elders are still talking about the “northern oligarchy”. The minorities in the north, meanwhile, seem to identify with the south in this aspect.

Stomach Infrastructure
There is a language that is often spoken among Nigerians voters: stomach infrastructure. A bag of rice, a bottle of vegetable oil, a bundle of clothing or a few wads of naira could win their votes.
It is a common factor in places where they do not have any serious interest in the candidates. When it comes to stomach infrastructure, then, Jonathan has a bigger storehouse than Buhari.
Although Buhari has a deeper pocket this time around, his funders also have other battles they are waging.
For instance, Tinubu and Amaechi are battling to install their governorship candidates, making the presidential election a bit of a distraction.
More so, the postponement of the election appears to have depleted opposition’s resources, while PDP’s pocket seems bottomless.

South-west? Which south-west?
Buhari’s hope of unseating Jonathan seems to rest so much on the belief that the APC is in control of the south-west.
Having scored 10 million votes less than Jonathan in 2011, the Buhari camp seemed to have finally accepted the fact that he needs southern votes to become president.
Since 2003. he had consistently won 12 million votes in the north without much presence in the south.
Nevertheless, the south-west may not be there for the taking in 2015. Out of the six states, Ondo and Ekiti are controlled by PDP governors.
Then Oyo and Ogun are very shaky for APC, with the ascendancy of pro-Jonathan politicians in those states and the fracturing of the opposition’s structure.
Meanwhile, Lagos and Osun should be seriously contested from all indications.


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Interswitch Advocates Trust-Driven Infrastructure as Cornerstones of Africa’s Cross-Border Capital Future

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Interswitch Group, one of Africa’s leading integrated payments and digital commerce companies, has reaffirmed its commitment to advancing a seamless and inclusive financial ecosystem across the continent at the recently concluded Inclusive Fintech Forum 2026, which held at the Kigali Convention Centre, in Rwanda from 10 -12 March 2026.

Speaking during a high-level session themed “Financial Centres & the Future of Cross-Border Capital” Akeem Lawal, Managing Director, Payments Processing & Switching (Interswitch Purepay), highlighted the critical factors shaping the next phase of financial integration across Africa.

He noted that while rapid advancements in digital technology have made it possible for capital to move across borders at unprecedented speed, the ultimate destination and impact of such capital flows are determined by trust, robust infrastructure, and strategic collaboration.

According to Lawal, as Africa’s economies continue to digitize and integrate, stakeholders must prioritize building resilient payment systems and fostering partnerships that enhance transparency, interoperability, and shared prosperity.

He emphasized that sustainable growth in cross-border financial flows will depend not only on technological innovation but also on the collective ability of institutions to inspire confidence and enable seamless transactions at scale.

Throughout the forum’s engagements, Interswitch, as one of Africa’s leading and pioneering digital technology enablers reiterated its long-standing vision of fostering a prosperous and interconnected Africa. The company continues to champion the development of a secure, technologically advanced digital payments ecosystem designed to connect and empower individuals, businesses, governments, and communities across the continent.

Participation at the Inclusive Fintech Forum underscores Interswitch’s strategic focus on driving thought leadership, strengthening regional collaboration, and supporting initiatives that accelerate financial inclusion and economic resilience.

As Africa navigates the evolving landscape of digital finance and cross-border commerce, Interswitch remains committed to delivering innovative solutions and partnerships that unlock opportunities for growth and shared value creation.


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FCCPC Launches Fuel Price Surveillance, Probes Airline Price Gouging, Resolves N10bn Complaints

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In a robust move to shield consumers from opportunistic profiteering, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has rolled out comprehensive nationwide monitoring of fuel prices, zeroing in on petrol marketers amid escalating global hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran that threaten to jolt Nigeria’s volatile petroleum market.

FCCPC Launches Fuel Price Surveillance, Probes Airline Price Gouging, Resolves N10bn Complaints

FCCPC

Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tunji Bello unveiled this proactive strategy during Thursday’s riveting March edition of the Meet the Press briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, underscoring the profound, cascading implications of any petrol price uptick on everyday essentials from transportation to foodstuffs.

“We are presently monitoring the situation now, the effect of the US, Israeli, Iran war as it affects prices in Nigeria. Petrol has far-reaching effects on some of the things we eat or take daily,” Bello articulated, revealing the deployment of dedicated monitors empowered to interrogate stark pricing anomalies—such as when competitors slash rates by ₦100 or ₦200 per litre, yet outliers stubbornly hold at ₦1,100 to ₦1,500—and seamless collaboration with the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) to enforce accountability and deter exploitation.

Turning to the aviation sector, Bello disclosed that FCCPC’s exhaustive probe into yuletide price gouging has pinpointed five to six domestic airlines for collusion, inflating fares from a baseline of ₦145,000-₦150,000 to exorbitant ₦500,000-₦700,000 during the Christmas rush.

“We investigated the airlines during the Christmas period because what we found was that they colluded to fix prices at that time,” he affirmed, confirming the issuance of an investigative report with stern penalties in the offing and directives for refunds of exploited excesses to aggrieved passengers. While withholding names pending finalisation, Bello signalled imminent public disclosure to restore market fairness.

Consumer grievances span critical sectors, with energy topping the list—electricity users railing against persistent metering deficits, inflated estimated billing, and unreliable Band A tariffs promising up to 20 hours daily yet delivering far less—prompting FCCPC to rigorously enforce service-tariff proportionality on distribution companies.

Fintech woes, particularly in online transactions and predatory loan apps, alongside telecom billing disputes, also proliferate, reflecting Nigeria’s deepening digital economy pains.

Bello highlighted FCCPC’s stellar track record, resolving over 9,000 complaints between March and August 2025 and clawing back more than ₦10 billion for victims. “Nigerians sometimes grumble more than they complain. Once you complain, the system generates a code for the complaint, and we can begin to act on it,” he urged, championing formal channels for swift intervention.

The Commission recommitted to dynamic partnerships with consumers, trade associations, and sister regulators, fortifying defences against anti-competitive conduct and embedding consumer rights as the bedrock of Nigeria’s evolving market ecosystem.

This multi-pronged offensive arrives at a pivotal juncture, as geopolitical flux and domestic inflation test regulatory mettle.


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Court Freezes Bank Accounts of Petrocam, Founder over Alleged N9Bn Zenith Bank Debt

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Federal High Court sitting in Lagos has ordered the freezing of bank accounts belonging to Petrocam Trading Nigeria Limited and Patrick Ilo, its founder, over an alleged N9.05 billion debt.

Court Freezes Bank Accounts of Petrocam, Founder over Alleged N9Bn Zenith Bank Debt

Patrick Ilo and Petrocam Filling station

Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke of the court granted the interim orders in Suit No: FHC/L/CS/393/2026 which was an ex parte application filed by Zenith Bank to preserve funds allegedly owed by the defendants as of May 31, 2025.

It was gathered that the ex parte motion was argued by Chief A.A. Aribisala (SAN) on behalf of Zenith Bank.

While delivering the ruling on Wednesday, the court restrained the defendants, whether acting by themselves or through agents, privies, or assigns, from withdrawing, transferring, dissipating, or otherwise dealing with funds up to the sum of ₦9,057,511,855.63, pending the hearing and determination of the motion on notice.

“An interim order is hereby granted restraining the defendants/respondents, Petrocam Trading Nigeria Limited and Patrick Ilo, whether by themselves, their agents, privies or assigns, from withdrawing, transferring, dissipating or otherwise dealing with any funds up to the sum of ₦9,057,511,855.63 pending the hearing and determination of the motion on notice,” Justice Aneke ruled.

The court further ordered the freezing of all accounts linked to Bank Verification Number (BVN) 22141926401, which the bank alleged is being used by Ilo to operate Petrocam’s accounts.

In addition, Justice Aneke directed all financial institutions within the jurisdiction of the court to immediately place a lien or “Post-No-Debit” restriction on all accounts associated with the BVN.

According to the order, “All financial institutions within the jurisdiction of this honourable court are hereby directed to place a lien or post-no-debit restriction on all accounts linked to BVN 22141926401 pending further orders of the court.”

The order extends beyond traditional banks to key operators within Nigeria’s electronic payment ecosystem. Among those joined as respondents in the matter are the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System, Interswitch Limited, and Interswitch Financial Inclusion Services Limited.

The court also directed the institutions to disclose the details of all accounts linked to the BVN. Justice Aneke ordered the respondents to file an affidavit of return within seven days, revealing all accounts connected to the BVN, their balances, and the transaction history covering the preceding six months.

Court documents filed in support of the application showed that the credit facility at the centre of the dispute was subject to several pre-disbursement conditions imposed by Zenith Bank.

According to the filings, Petrocam was required to formally accept the facility through its authorised signatories, provide a board resolution approving the loan, and disclose any existing indebtedness to other lenders, including facility limits, outstanding balances, and collateral pledged.

Other conditions included the domiciliation of sales proceeds and Sovereign Debt Note subsidy payments from Oando Plc and Total Nigeria Plc into Petrocam’s account with Zenith Bank.

The company was also required to submit relevant contract agreements for the bank’s approval and provide a five percent counterpart contribution for each transaction, while all required security documentation had to be executed before the facility could be disbursed.

The bank further stated that Petrocam was expected to submit quarterly management accounts within 60 days after the end of each quarter and audited annual financial statements within 120 days.

In addition, Petrocam was required to route all import duty payments and Letters of Credit through its account with Zenith Bank, establish Letters of Credit for petroleum imports, and obtain comprehensive marine insurance naming Zenith Bank as the first loss payee.

Court filings also revealed that General Marine and Oil Services Ltd had been appointed by the bank to monitor petroleum product warehousing at Petrocam’s expense.

The facility agreement further imposed foreign exchange obligations, authorising Zenith Bank to settle maturing Usance obligations at 12 percent interest if Petrocam failed to provide the necessary funds.

The bank maintained that in the event of default, Petrocam would be responsible for all legal, recovery, and ancillary costs arising from enforcement of the facility.

The court also granted Zenith Bank leave to serve the defendants through substituted means.

Justice Aneke ruled that the defendants may be served at their last known address in Victoria Island, Lagos.

The matter has been adjourned to March 17, 2026, for mention.


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