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Foreign Investors Want More Naira Devaluation

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International investors, dismayed by Nigeria’s decision to delay a naira devaluation they see as long overdue, will hold back from its stock and bond markets, raising risks of a deeper crisis in Africa’s biggest economy.

Reuters reported that the afterglow from March, when an incumbent president handed over power after what was seen as Nigeria’s freest ever election, is dissipating as new leader Muhammadu Buhari shows little sign of following up on promises of economic reform.

Markets have moved sharply in the past week in particular after the central bank announced curbs on dollar funding for investors, as well as for importers of goods ranging from toothpicks to private jets.

The move, meant to conserve foreign exchange, has dashed widely-held expectations of a naira devaluation – the central reform that investors had been banking on.

Since then 10-year bond yields have jumped 1 percentage point to almost 15 percent, stocks have fallen and the naira’s value is plunging in the parallel market, down about 7 percent from early-June levels.

According to Reuters, a devaluation to restore the economy to competitiveness is a matter of time, fund managers still believe. In the meantime, they are unlikely to bring back cash they pulled out before the election.

“It will take a combination of weaker currency and higher interest rates to get us back to Nigeria,” said Kieran Curtis, a bond fund manager at Standard Life Investments.

“When we compare Nigeria to other oil exporters it hasn’t had enough of a currency adjustment.”

With oil exports providing 70 percent of budget revenues, Nigeria can certainly use a cheaper currency. Most had reckoned on a 10-15 percent devaluation at least and some such as Curtis estimate a 20-25 percent move is probably needed.

The naira fell 20 percent in the year to February. Even so its real exchange rate, against currencies of trade partners and adjusted for inflation, is up than 50 percent in the past decade. link.reuters.com/ben53w

In real terms, currencies of oil-exporting peers Russia and Colombia are 5 and 17 percent respectively below long-term averages. African oil producer Angola also recently devalued its kwanza, which is down 15 percent to the dollar this year

And the price for supporting the naira is high – the central bank has spent at least $3.4 billion since fixing the exchange rate in February and reserves have fallen below $30 billion for the first time since 2005. http:link.reuters.com/huf76v

Devaluation expectations continue to mount. Non-deliverable forwards, derivatives used to hedge against future exchange rate moves, reflect expectations of currency weakening: six-month NDFs price the naira at 225 per dollar, while a week ago the forward price was around 215.

“To me, (central bank measures) are doing more harm than good: you are putting off the inevitable and the reaction you are seeing on rates markets and the NDF shows that,” said Kevin Daly, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

“Effectively the bond market is starting to price in a much wider move on the currency.”

Curbing access to dollars may briefly stabilise reserves and constrict imports but pent-up demand for hard currency will eventually weaken the exchange rate and drains central bank coffers.

It may also stoke inflation if importers are forced to pay more for dollars. The naira trades at 230 per dollar in the black market, some 14 percent below the official rate.

With oil revenues down and borrowing costs rising, the 2015 budget is already 3.2 percent smaller than last year’s. By early May, the government had already exhausted half its borrowing allowance for the year.

Ten-year yields at almost 15 percent, 250 basis points above post-election lows, will raise borrowing costs for the government and the private sector.

“Ultimately (devaluation) will become more of a fiscal necessity than an external necessity. The longer they will take to do the adjustment, the bigger the adjustment would have to be,” said Antoon de Klerk, portfolio manager at Investec’s African Fixed Income Fund.

And crucially for investment flows, Nigeria’s place in the GBI-EM local currency debt index looks increasingly precarious.

JPMorgan warned in June it could eject Nigeria from its benchmark index by year-end unless it restores liquidity to currency markets in a way that allowed foreign investors to transact with minimal hurdles.

Nigeria has a 1.8 percent share in the $220 billion index, suggesting $4 billion in inflows, Morgan Stanley estimates, a major offset to its current account deficit.

“Were Nigeria to be removed from the index as a result of the dry-up in liquidity as forewarned by the index provider, upside risks to our naira forecast of 200-205 (per dollar) over the next 12 months could crystallise immediately, especially if one considers that its (annual) current account deficit could be up to … $10 billion,” Morgan Stanley said.


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Nigeria Seeks Alliance with Sweden to Strengthen Digital Economy

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Nigeria is eager to deepen its links with Sweden in order to grow its digital economy. Dr. Bosun Tijani, Nigeria’s Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, recently returned from a tour of Sweden.

The main meeting in Stockholm was with the Minister of International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade, with additional meetings with the private sector.

Tijani stated that Nigeria’s position as Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest trading partner influenced efforts to strengthen ICT ties.

The Nigerian minister stated that Sweden has the world’s second highest concentration of unicorns (after the United States) and a rich history of innovation.

“So, there is a lot of opportunity for collaboration and support for our initiatives in innovation, research, connectivity and digital technology as we work to accelerate the growth of Nigeria’s digital economy,” Tijani said.

The present administration of president Bola Tinubu, which has been in power since 2023, has developed a strategic plan outlining a vision for Nigeria that leverages the transformative power of digital technology and innovation to diversify its economy.


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Digital Transformation Can Unlock Nigeria’s Prosperity -NIGCOMSAT Boss

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Mrs. Jane Egerton-Idehen, managing director, Nigerian Satellite Communications Limited (NIGCOMSAT), has said that the time has come to unlock Nigeria’s true potential, by embracing digital transformation and fostering a culture of innovation as a way to further enhance other sectors like Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Trade; Agriculture (Crop production); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Construction; and Real Estate, among others.

Digital Transformation Can Unlock Nigeria’s Prosperity -NIGCOMSAT Boss

She said that over-reliance on the oil sector has created a vulnerable economy in Nigeria.

Egerton-Idehen said this in Nsukka on Saturday while delivering the 20th Herbert Macaulay Memorial Lecture themed, “Harnessing Practical Engineering Solutions for Sustainable Economic Development” held at the Princess Alexandra Auditorium Hall, University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN).

Egerton-Idehen who spoke on the topic “Championing Innovation: Digital Transformation and Economic Diversification in Nigeria,” said that Nigeria has heavily relied on oil production for many years which has not augured well for the country’s economy.

She said that digital transformation is the process of using digital technologies like Robotics, Mobile Internet, Artificial Internet, to radically transform existing traditional and non-digital business processes and services.

According to her “The largest contributor to the nation’s GDP post-1970s was crude oil.  With the oil boom in 1973-74,  it was in the double digits at its highest; it was 40% of GDP until  post-2010 when sectors like Agriculture and ICT started to redistribute that balance.

“Currently, oil contribution to GDP has returned to a single digit — pre-1970 figures, it sits at 6% of GDP today. The oil sector still provides for 95% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and 80% of its budgetary revenues.

“Nigeria, as we know, is a nation brimming with talent and potential, stands at a crossroads. While blessed with abundant natural resources, particularly oil, our economy remained heavily reliant on a single sector for over five decades.

“The price per barrel of oil needed for Nigeria to balance our budgets is– $139, Saudi Arabia $83.8, and UAE $67 (Kullab & Abdul-Zahra, 2020). Current global conditions make this untenable. Oil prices have crashed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, among other reasons (Alia Alzubair, 2021),” she said.

NIGCOMSAT Boss said further that the vulnerability to fluctuating oil prices exposes Nigeria to external shocks and hinders sustainable growth.

“There are many ways we can frame our road to diversification and non-dependence in the oil sector.

“With our experience with ICT, we can safely assume we could reform, and impact various sectors driving economic growth through digital transformation.

“This could be done by addressing the challenges and harnessing the opportunities, Nigeria can leverage digital transformation as a powerful tool for economic diversification, job creation, and shared prosperity.

In a remark, Prof Charles Igwe, vice-chancellor of UNN said that was one of the first Nigerian nationalists and his opposition to many colonial policies paved the way for the Independence of Nigeria

“Together with Nnamdi Azikiwe he co-founded the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroon (NCNC) and became its president.

The VC noted that the Faculty of Engineering initiated the biennial lecture series in order to achieve the following goals; Highlight the faces of a man who has been described as the father of Nigerian Nationalism, Encourage present da engineers, surveyors, architects, and other professional to learn from his professional lifestyles and make every effort to leave good footprints on the sand of time.

Other targets of the HMML series are; To map out strategies and mobilize resources to improve the teaching, learning, and research environment within the Faculty of Engineering and the university at large,, and to identify major National issues of engineering importance, and through the learned discourse proffer engineering solutions to them.

“The theme of this HMML, ‘ Harnessing Practical Engineering Solutions doe Sustainable Economic Development’ is very apt for Nigeria and the world over where sustainability is the current jingle for every developmental solution, and I am happy that very distinguished professionals have gathered here for the discourse,” he said.

Igwe challenged the Dean of the Faculty of Engineering and other staff of the faculty to proffer immediate solutions to the energy crisis in the University and its environs.

Also in a remark, Prof. Emenike Ejiogu, dean, Faculty of Engineering, UNN said that the HMML series is one of the longest-running academic lecture series in any Nigeria university, noting that the faculty had instituted the lecture series in honour of Herbert Heelas Macaulay.

“The Faculty of Engineering Board resolved on October 5, 1978, to establish a Memorial Lecture series to be known as HMML, to honour Macaulay; the father of Nigerian nationalism, who trained and practiced as an engineer, architect, and surveyor.

“The first lecture was held in 1980 and has since continued every two years with many distinguished lecturers doing justice to the selected theme that the faculty board carefully selected according to the needs of time.

“This year’s (20th edition) HMML lecturer, Mrs. Egerton-Idehen is the first ever female to feature as an HMML lecturer, and she has chosen a very timely and appealing title for her lecture,” he said.

Ejiogu, who is also director, Africa Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Power and Energy Development (ACE-SPED) UNN, commended Prof. Igwe, UNN- VC and his management team for their support and encouragement in all the endeavours of the faculty.

He also commended other lead paper presenters, relevant stakeholders and the general public who attended and contributed the the success of the 20th HMML.

The occasion was chaired by Prof. Paul Eke, a professor of Digital Technology and System Engineering, Royal Academy of Engineering, University of Leeds, United Kingdom.

The highlights of the 20th HMML include; Gown Meets Town, a Technical Exhibition of practical projects of staff and students of the faculty of Engineering and interested private and public sector companies and organizations, with products and services relevant to sustainable economic growth, Technical Symposium and Panel Discussion, Alumni Homecoming Events, Unveiling and Handover of Agbebi Alumni Class of ’85 Building, among others.

 


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NAEC to Deploy Nuclear Science for Power Generation

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Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission (NAEC), in collaboration with the Centre for Energy Research and Training (CERT) at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria is set to leverage nuclear science and technology to enhance electric power generation in Nigeria.

NAEC to Deploy Nuclear Science for Power Generation

Prof Yusuf-Aminu Ahmed, chairman of NAEC, made this known during the 20th Anniversary Symposium of Nigeria’s first Nuclear Research Reactor-1 (NNR-1) in Zaria.

Prof Ahmed emphasised the accumulated expertise in nuclear power at the center, asserting Nigeria’s readiness to advance to the next stage of power generation through nuclear reactors. “We have utilised the reactor for research and development extensively, and now we are poised to employ it for electricity generation,” Mr Ahmed stated.

He further disclosed that President Bola Tinubu has tasked the commission with contributing to Nigeria’s clean energy initiatives, with the nuclear energy programme set to play a significant role, and noted the signing of intergovernmental agreements with some vendors.

Sen. George Akume, secretary to the government of the federation, lauded the 20 years of safe operation of the nuclear research reactor as a testament to Nigeria’s commitment to the safe application of nuclear energy.

He underscored that the successful operation of the nuclear research reactor paved the way for considering a nuclear reactor for electricity generation, echoing President Tinubu’s advocacy for nuclear energy in Nigeria’s power sources.

In his remarks, Prof Sunday Jonah, director of the center, highlighted the event’s purpose of celebrating two decades of safe operation, maintenance, and utilisation of the NNR-1.

However, amidst the achievements celebrated, Prof Jonah expressed concern over a purported attempt by NAEC to wrest control of the center from the university through the proposed NAEC Bill 2022 and cautioned that such a move would contradict the original vision of the center’s establishment within universities, designed to foster a culture of research and development.

 

 

 

 

 


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