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Monetary Policy Committee Holds Meeting

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 10th and 11th May, 2010 to review domestic economic conditions during the first four months of 2010 and the challenges facing the Nigerian economy against the backdrop of developments in the international economic and financial environments in order to reassess the course for monetary policy for the remainder of the year.
According to a communiqué from the CBN, the Committee noted that the recovery in global economic activity, which started in the second half of 2009, has evolved better than expected although large fiscal deficits continue to pose a threat.
The recovery, which was driven largely by the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimuli undertaken in both the developed and emerging market economies in response to the global economic slowdown, was progressing at varying degrees across the different regions.
“Across the globe, real and financial activities have been mutually supportive in their recovery. Although the money markets have stabilized, and corporate bond and equity markets have rebounded, access to credit remained difficult for some sectors, especially small firms and households that lack access to the capital markets. Although, the tightening of bank lending standards and the credit crisis appear to be bottoming out, the
resumption of credit growth in many emerging and developing countries has been weak.”
The MPC observed that the domestic financial markets have recovered remarkably faster than expected, though still fragile, and urged greater efforts in accelerating the reforms in the different segment of the financial system to promote financial sector stability which is critical to economic growth. In particular, deep and liquid capital markets and strong and effective insurance companies, pension funds and other institutional investors are critical for establishing the balance required for the attainment of financial system stability.
While noting that financial market inefficiencies and supervisory and regulatory failures were at the root of the current crisis, it welcomed the relative stability that has been achieved in most segments of the market in response to the various measures taken by the regulatory authorities and emphasized the need for its sustenance.
The MPC also noted the continuing rebound in commodity prices, particularly crude oil prices, which is helping to support growth in commodity producing regions, including Nigeria. However, the inflation risk of the rebound in energy prices appears to be mitigated by the subsisting low levels of capacity utilization, weak private demand and well-anchored inflation expectations.
The MPC noted with satisfaction that, overall, the bank has achieved its mandate of price and financial stability, as reflected in relatively stable exchange rates, interest rates and moderating inflation. By the time the AMCON Bill is harmonized and finally passed by the National Assembly and implemented, the repair of banks’ balance sheets would unlock the flow of credits to the real economy.
In this regard, the MPC enjoins other stakeholders to undertake complementary measures to enable economic agents translate the stable macroeconomic environment into economic growth and development.
The Committee observed that the robust output growth recorded in 2009 continued in 2010. Provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.68 per cent in the first quarter of 2010, down from 7.44 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, but up from the 4.50 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2009. NBS also projected that the GDP is expected to grow by 7.24, 7.36 and 8.51 per cent in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2010, respectively.
Overall GDP growth for 2010 was projected at 7.53 per cent which is higher than the revised estimate of 6.66 per cent recorded in 2009. The non-oil sector is expected to remain the main driver of overall growth, with agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, and services contributing 2.61, 2.09 and 2.14 per cent, respectively. The Committee noted that the impressive growth forecasts reflect prospects for moderate rainfall in 2010, which is expected to support the production of major crops across the country, and the sustained peace in the Niger-Delta, which would boost crude oil and natural gas production. The MPC, however, noted that at a mere 4 percent share of GDP, the manufacturing sector needed revamping to enhance its role in boosting growth and employment generation. In this context, it called for appropriate sector-specific policies to drive growth.
The Committee also realized that there is a need to maintain and extend the focus on stability and avoid decision that may cause disruption. In view of the inflation outlook in the short-term it was felt that the reversal of accommodative monetary stance at this time is premature. The Committee however, noted that in the next quarter monetary expansion may be driven by increased government spending, the purchase of toxic assets by the AMCON and recapitalization of distressed banks. These expansions may translate into the risk of higher inflation, asset price bubbles or pressure on exchange rate and foreign reserves.
The Committee identified key concerns for policy in this era of global recovery as ensuring that the growing risk of fiscal deficit accumulated in the wake of the abating global financial and economic crises does not endanger the stability of financial markets; monitoring imbalances in capital flows across industrial and emerging markets resulting in different rates of recovery. This is to ensure that inflows of capital into the country are sustainable and avoid formation of asset price bubbles and continuing global credit crunch despite unprecedented measures taken by central banks to inject liquidity in troubled financial institutions/markets. This underscores the need for focus on both supply side (monetary) and demand side (fiscal factor) in unlocking the credit markets.
At the end of the day, the MPC decided to leave the MPR unchanged at 6.0 per cent, retain the asymmetric corridor of interest rates at 200 basis points above the MPR and 500 basis points below the MPR for the Standing Lending Facility and Standing Deposit Facility, respectively.
The committee also decided to extend the CBN guarantee for all interbank transactions and foreign credit lines as well as pension funds’ placements with banks up till June 30, 2011, to provide ample time for the conclusion of the banking sector resolution and the publication of audited accounts for the period up to December 2010. It is expected that by June 2011 all creditors and investors will have sufficient information to take an independent view of the risk of individual counterparties.

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Dufil Prima Foods Brings Relief to Indigent Families in Abeokuta

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Dufil Prima Foods, makers of Indomie instant noodles, in partnership with the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society, extended its goodwill to the shores of Abeokuta, Ogun state, at a product distribution event on Tuesday 24 April, where cartons of Indomie noodles were distributed to the underprivileged, as part of its ongoing efforts to support families worst hit by the ongoing economic hardship.

The event which saw a thousand vulnerable families go home with a carton of Indomie each, individuals present were also provided with cooked noodles to help relieve their immediate hunger.

The outreach had in attendance members of the disabled community, orphans, widows, the elderly, pregnant women, and vulnerable families.

The outreach is in alignment with the brand’s goal to feed two million consumers across various cities and communities in Nigeria, by collaborating closely with recognized NGOs to ensure that only the most vulnerable persons in the various cities and communities are invited and given a carton of Indomie and a fresh bowl of the nourishing tasty noodles.

The event was graced with the presence of notable dignitaries including the representative of the Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development in Ogun State, Mrs. Wonuola Kassim; the Ogun State Chapter Chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Comrade Hammeed-Bello Aderinola; a representative of the Sector Commander of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Superintendent Adeoye Adejoke Asake; the Chairman of the Ogun State Police Community Relations Committee (PCRC), Venerable (Dr.) Samson Kunle Popoola, Chairman of the Peace Initiative Network, Dr. Femi Sodipo , and Trace PRO, CDR. Babatunde Akinbiyi, amongst others.

Mrs. Wonuola Kassim in her keynote address, commended the efforts of Dufil Prima Foods Ltd, and acknowledged that this was not the company’s first CSR initiative as she recalled that it had embarked on a similar venture in 2020.

“This program cannot be more timely than a time like this, when to feed becomes very difficult for most people. This is the kind of gesture which would linger for ages in the hearts of the beneficiaries. The objective of the palliative distribution is to alleviate the hardship faced by the citizens due to the recent removal of fuel subsidy by the Federal Government”, she said.

Speaking in the same vein, Popoola of the PCRC said: “We believe in PCRC that food security and eradication of hunger will go a long way in reducing the level of criminality in our society. What we have seen today is a conscious effort on the part of the organisers to see to the eradication of poverty, eradication of hunger and to support the food security initiative of the Government”.

Other dignitaries present also expressed their gratitude for Indomie and the organisers of the event, the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society. They commended their efforts for taking the right steps to ensure that families across the country are catered for in these challenging times.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains steadfast in its quest to provide satisfaction and put smiles on the faces of families across Nigeria.


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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