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IMF Warnings Renew Market Jitters

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Sentiment towards the global economy was dealt a numbing blow during trading on Tuesday following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) gloomy outlook on global growth which consequently dented risk appetite.

These meek outlooks come at a time when the violent combination of stubbornly low commodity price and ongoing China woes has persistently exposed other nations to major downside risks.

With the horrible cocktail of ongoing global instabilities potentially sabotaging any real recovery in global growth and blurring economic outlooks, it seems likely that the IMF will slash growth forecasts once again at the next meeting in Washington.
 
The logical steps to mitigating the headwinds of slowing global growth in a normal market environment may be to unleash further accommodative monetary policy, but recent market reactions from central bank intervention have almost exacerbated the situation.

We live in a period of negative rate policies where unorthodox central bank interventions have severely warped the financial markets, only leaving investors more anxious.

Confidence towards the global economy was already low and with the IMF’s fears adding to the mixture of falling oil prices, Brexit fears, China concerns and emerging market weakness, investors may be encouraged to scatter from riskier assets.
 
Stock markets were left vulnerable on Tuesday and concluded surrendering to the bears as depressed oil prices chipped away at risk appetite.

Europe, Asia and American markets descended into the red territory following the IMF’s timid outlook on global growth that renewed a sharp wave of risk aversion.

With anxiety mounting ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday forcing investors to flee from riskier assets, stock could be poised to decline further with Asia leading the selloff as risk aversion boosts appetite for the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
 
FOMC Minutes in Focus‎
Investors may direct their attention towards the heavily anticipated FOMC minutes on Wednesday which could offer additional clarity on interest rate hike timings in 2016. In recent weeks sentiment towards the US economy was ripped in various directions following the clash of stances between hawkish Fed officials and the dovish Janet Yellen and today may offer some light as to why. 

Although data from the States continues to display signs of recovery, it seems clear that global developments dictate when or if the Fed will be raising US rates in 2016.

Sentiment is bearish towards the Dollar and with the latest comments from the IMF eroding any expectations over the Fed taking action in Q2, bearish investors have been provided a platform to attack.

The Dollar Index remains bearish on the daily timeframe and may be set to depreciate further if the FOMC minutes hint at a dovish tone or even fail to provide any direction on US rate hikes.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support at 95.50 may transform into a dynamic resistance which could trigger a further decline towards 94.00.
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WTI Crude Challenges $35
WTI experienced a technical bounce during trading on Tuesday which had nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the heavily oversupplied commodity.

The lingering impact of Saudi Arabia’s unexpected comments on the success of an output freeze deal on Iran’s unlikely participation has left prices vulnerable to further losses.

With Iran remaining defiant on any talks of a production freeze, while currently boosting output to 4mbpd, any real recovery in prices could be curbed.

The sentiment is bearish towards WTI and with expectations mounting that the Doha meeting may conclude unsuccessful amid the conflict of interests, sellers could exploit this opportunity to send prices lower.
 
From a technical standpoint, WTI is bearish as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA and the breakdown below $35 has opened a path towards $30.
 
China in The Picture
China Caixin Services PMI exceeded expectations earlier this morning, but sentiment remains bearish towards the Chinese economy regardless with an increasing focus on its ability to maintaining the 6.5% GDP target for 2016.

Investors should keep in mind that in March data from Beijing followed a negative trajectory, while the elevated fears of a faster deceleration in economic momentum ensured the China markets remained depressed.

Although the nation is currently engaged in a mission to transform into an economy that prospers on global demand, China export-reliant countries continue to feel the pain.

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

GCR Affirms Afreximbank’s International Scale Ratings of A, A2

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GCR Ratings (GCR) has affirmed African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) international scale long and short-term issuer ratings of A and A2 respectively. The outlook was revised to “Stable” from “Rating Watch Evolving”.

GCR has also affirmed the international scale long term programme rating on the $5 billion Global Medium Term Note (GMTN) Programme of A.

The improved rating reflects GCR’s assessment of a “robust counter-cyclical mandate, underpinned by a strong track record and ongoing preferential creditor treatment (PCT) from shareholders.”

South Africa became the latest country to affirm the Bank’s Establishment Treaty and Preferred Creditor Status when it recently signed the Instrument of Accession to become a full sovereign member of the Bank.

The report continued: “The Bank’s solid capitalisation and diversified funding profile provide significant buffers against emerging credit risks.” The report also acknowledged the Bank’s diverse shareholding base.

The outlook change from “Rating Watch Evolving” to “Stable”, according to GCR, indicates that there is immaterial downside risk related to sovereign debt restructurings.

Commenting on the Rating action, Chandi Mwenebungu, Managing Director and Group Treasurer, Treasury and Markets at Afreximbank said: “We are delighted that GCR has affirmed its credit rating on the Bank and resolved the outlook to ‘stable’, particularly in the light of recent positive credit developments.

“We continue to assert that the Bank’s preferred creditor treatment is enshrined in the Bank’s Establishment Agreement, ratified by all member states. It is not a matter of opinion or convention; it is fact”.

Mwenebungu continued, “It is also pleasing to note that GCR acknowledges the Afreximbank’s strong liquidity and capitalisation, and resilient risk profile. This is testament to the Bank’s financial and operational strength and that it has been able to demonstrate firm resolve in the face of continued macro-economic pressures and a challenging environment.”

 


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SmartCash Launches ‘No Be Cho Cho Cho’ Campaign to Boost Digital Banking in Nigeria

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Smartcash Payment Service Bank (PSB), the Airtel-owned digital financial services platform, has unveiled a nationwide marketing campaign titled “No Be Cho Cho Cho”, signalling a strategic shift toward proof-led messaging in Nigeria’s fast-evolving fintech sector.

Launched at a media event in Lagos, the campaign represents a new chapter for Smartcash, following its earlier “Money Matter Na Sense” positioning, reflecting the company’s rapid growth and increasing role in Nigeria’s digital financial ecosystem. The platform now serves nearly three million active wallets, with users spanning students, traders, households and small businesses across the country.

The phrase “Cho Cho Cho,” a popular expression in Nigerian street parlance meaning “talking without action,” is used deliberately by the company to challenge the hype-driven marketing culture that has often characterised the fintech sector. Instead, Smartcash says the campaign will focus on demonstrable performance and measurable value for customers, which means “Smartcash dey show workings”.

The initiative centres on the three pillars of reliability, transparency and demonstrable service delivery and addresses what the company describes as a widening trust gap in Nigeria’s digital payments market.

Speaking at the launch, Ayotunde Kuponiyi, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Smartcash PSB, outlined the strategic philosophy behind the campaign, linking the company’s mission to broader global and national economic priorities.

“Financial inclusion is a critical pillar of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and with the launch of ‘No Be Cho Cho Cho’, we are proving our commitment to this vision,” Kuponiyi said.

“We have built an accessible banking service that breaks barriers for everyone, from corporate executives to the previously unbanked, pulling them from the sidelines to centre stage. Through our flagship zero-charge service, we promise no fees on P2P transfers or bill payments. Furthermore, our savings account offers 15 percent per annum compounded interest, paid daily without penalties. Unlike conventional banks, we charge you nothing, ensuring your money truly works for you.”

Smartcash’s zero-charge model, which eliminates fees on transfers and bill payments, has become one of the platform’s defining features., alongside instant transfers and everyday payments for utilities, airtime, data and cable TV.

Kuponiyi noted that the campaign reflects a broader philosophy of accountability in digital finance.

“Nigerians have experienced inconsistency and unclear charges across various platforms in the past,” he said. “With No Be Cho Cho Cho, we are saying clearly: don’t just listen to what we say; experience the proof.”

Smartcash operates as a Payment Service Bank licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria and is wholly owned by Airtel Nigeria, a part of the Airtel Africa Group, which operates across 14 countries. This backbone allows the platform to serve customers through both smartphone applications and USSD channels, enabling access for users without smartphones or traditional bank accounts.

Beyond consumer banking, the platform is also expanding its footprint through a nationwide network of agents that facilitate transactions and financial services in underserved communities.

Providing further insight into the bank’s financial architecture and long-term roadmap, Kuponiyi, emphasised that the campaign reflects the strength of the institution’s operational foundation.

“At Smartcash, we have matched our ambitious growth targets with disciplined investment in secure, high-volume processing capabilities. The No Be Cho Cho Cho initiative is a testament to our financial health and our unwavering focus on driving financial inclusion through sustainable incentives that provide real value to the Nigerian economy,” he said.

As part of the rollout, the No Be Cho Cho Cho” campaign will run nationwide across television, radio, outdoor advertising and digital platforms, targeting young, mobile-first consumers while also reaching traders and small businesses through agent networks and USSD channels.

For Smartcash, the campaign marks more than a marketing refresh; it signals an attempt to redefine how financial technology companies communicate with Nigerian consumers in an increasingly competitive sector.

As Kuponiyi concluded at the launch: “The evidence is plenty. Nigerians can see it for themselves.”


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Senate Targets Fintech Overreach, Vows Ponzi Crackdown After ₦1.3trn CBEX Scam

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Nigerian Senate has launched a public hearing to amend the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 while investigating rampant ponzi schemes, spotlighting the Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) collapse that defrauded 1,200 victims of ₦1.3 trillion.

Senate Targets Fintech Overreach, Vows Ponzi Crackdown After ₦1.3trn CBEX Scam

Senate President Godswill Akpabio, represented by Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele, opened Tuesday’s session jointly organised by committees on Banking, ICT/Cybersecurity, Capital Market, and Anti-Corruption. The bill (SB959) aims to bolster Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) oversight of fintechs and systemically important digital institutions without creating a duplicate regulator.

Akpabio stressed: “Enhanced supervision is not a constraint on growth; it is a safeguard for sustainable growth,” rejecting a standalone fintech commission to avoid fragmented oversight. Crypto licensing falls under SEC, but transaction stability remains CBN’s domain.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mukhail Abiru highlighted a national registry for transparency and risk-based fintech supervision, backed by CBN Deputy Governor Philip Ikeazor, who noted some fintechs rival mid-sized banks in volume.

The probe targets regulatory gaps exposed by CBEX’s unrealistic returns amid economic hardship. EFCC’s Dein Whyte reported asset seizures from operators, with forfeiture proceedings underway.

CBN’s Orekia Opemi-Yusuf warned separate regulators could stunt Nigeria’s expanding fintech sector, while FCCPC’s Ondaje Ijagwu urged clear lines between prudential rules and consumer protection. The reforms seek to restore trust in a digital economy battered by fraud.


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