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FXTM Analysis: British Pound Continues to Fall Down The Charts

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The British Pound has continued to fall down the charts during trading on Wednesday as a result of the markets becoming concerned regarding the upcoming EU referendum and the significant risks that the UK economy would face if the United Kingdom did vote to leave the European Union in just over three weeks.

I think that investors were generally beginning to underprice the possibility of a UK exit as if it was a forgone conclusion that the United Kingdom would automatically vote to remain in the European Union later this month and as a result of the threat being underpriced, the British Pound is suffering steep losses and remains to appear under heavy selling pressure.

All of the risks for the British Pound are still pointing strongly to further weakness and there is limited upside strength potential for the currency even if the UK did vote to remain in the EU later this month.

What investors need to remember is that UK economic momentum is weakening and data has disappointed the markets throughout 2016, meaning buyers are not going to be heavily encouraged to price in longer-term strength for the currency regardless of the outcome later in June.

With Dollar demand currently looking very stable due to the renewed US interest rate optimism, it has become extremely difficult to construct an argument for the GBPUSD to trade any higher than 1.50 and this might be the limit for the Pound/Dollar throughout the second half of 2016.

This ultimately means that the trading strategy from investors will be to continue selling rallies in the GBPUSD.

Over the shorter term and if the markets continue to be alerted regarding the possibility that the upcoming referendum is not a foregone conclusion for a “remain” outcome, this means that the GBP will continue to remain under pressure against currencies such as the Euro and Japanese Yen.

The positive news for the GBP is that with the Dollar being revived due to renewed US interest rate optimism is that the majority of global currencies are going to be under pressure due to a strengthening USD, meaning that it is not just one-way traffic for further Pound losses against all currencies over the medium and longer-term.

WTI Oil slips lower as OPEC outcome awaits
After making yet another attempt to reach the ceiling at $50 during trading on Tuesday, WTI Oil has hit the wall and declined by nearly $2 to trade slightly above $48.21 on Wednesday. $50 is still seen as the psychological “top” for the commodity and we would need to close above this level as trading concludes for the week for WTI Oil to be able to trade above $50.

The general expectations are that there will be no changes to the outcome from the OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow, meaning that the oil markets could remain under pressure as a result.

The area between $47.20 – $47.40 is currently seen as the next area of support for WTI Oil but even if we fall below this level, the commodity would need to conclude weekly trading below the $44-$42 for worries to emerge that we could truly see the returns of heavy selling for the oil markets.

Aside from the OPEC meeting causing some short-term anxieties to investors, it is worth pointing out that both OPEC and the IEA released reports in May indicating that global inventories will suffer from a dramatic decline in reduction over the second half of 2016 and this would be very positive when it comes to the medium and longer-term outlook for the price of oil.

Japanese Yen strengthens despite sales tax delay
The Japanese Yen has appreciated against many of its currency partners today, despite Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcing a delay to a sales tax increase from 8% to 10% until at least late 2019.

This news should have really weakened the Japanese Yen because it would have been seen as another update to fiscal reforms that should have enticed further spending from consumers, which in turn would have increased inflation prospects that have long plagued the Japanese economy.

The best explanation to provide for the Japanese strength during trading today would likely be strictly correlated to the risk aversion we are seeing in the markets with equities coming under pressure and the USDJPY once again finding tough resistance at 111.

It is worth pointing out to technical traders that the last time the USDJPY met profit-taking at 111 that the currency pair suddenly fell off a cliff towards 106, and we have already nearly dropped from 111 to marginally above 109 over the past two trading sessions.

Jameel Ahmad isChief Market Analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

Crypto Exchanges Begin Delisting Naira from P2P Platforms- SEC

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Crypto exchanges have commenced delisting of the Naira from Peer-to-Peer (P2P) trading platforms, following directives of the Office of the National Security Adviser and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Crypto Exchanges Begin Delisting Naira from P2P Platforms- SEC

P2P trading in the realm of cryptos is a decentralized method that allows individuals to buy and sell digital assets directly with one another.

In this system, P2P trading platforms serve as intermediaries, facilitating secure and trust-based transactions.

SEC explained that its checks have indicated that the Naira has been removed as a fiat currency option for transactions on KuCoin platform and the exchange has already begun the necessary adjustments to its technology to accommodate the delisting of the Naira as soon as practicable.

It explained that the removal of the Naira from the platforms limits the ability to manipulate the exchange rates against the Nigerian currency which is expected to further strengthen the value of the naira.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, acting director general of SEC, reacting to the delisting by KuCoin, expressed delight that the crypto exchanges were heeding the directives of ONSA and SEC, describing it as a welcome development.

He stated: “We are happy that they have started complying with the directives by the ONSA.  We ask that those involved in sharp practices that undermine national interest should cease and desist. It is in our interest as a people to protect what belongs to us.  Anyone that disobeys directives should be ready to face the full weight of the law”.

Agama added that as the apex regulator of the capital market, “SEC is co-operating  with the Office of the National Security Adviser, the  Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and other relevant agencies to achieve the national objective of making sure that illegality is not allowed to thrive”.

 

 

 


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Court Backs Banks to Collect Customers’ Social Media Handles

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A federal high court in Lagos has struck out a case against the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over its directive requiring banks to collect and verify social media handles as part of their know-your-customer (KYC) requirement.

Court Backs Banks to Collect Customers’ Social Media Handles

In June 2023, the apex bank issued the directive, saying the aim is to prevent financial crime, and terrorism, as well as boost the precision and thoroughness of customer identification.

Chris Eke, the applicant and a customer, represented by Olubunmi Abayomi-Olukunle, a lawyer, had filed suit number FHC/L/CS/1281/2023 in July 2023, arguing the CBN’s directive infringed upon constitutional rights, particularly section 37 of the 1999 constitution.

Nnamdi Dimgba, presiding judge, struck out the suit filed by Eke, which sought a declaration that the regulation as contained in section 6(a)(iv) of the CBN (customer due diligence) Regulations, 2023, is “undemocratic, unconstitutional, null and void”.

The CBN, in its response to the suit, filed a notice of preliminary objection, challenging the competence of the suit and disagreeing with the claim of interference with the applicant’s private life.

In his judgment, Dimgba held that the notice of preliminary objection had merit, subsequently striking out the suit.

The judge ruled that providing a social media handle is equivalent to providing email and phone numbers for potential customers, and therefore, it does not violate the right to privacy.

“First, the applicant claims that the requirements on the CBN regulations for financial institutions to request and collect the social media handle of its customers as part of KYC infringes on his right to privacy,” the judge said.

“This claim is very ambitious and amounts to a very far throw. The said regulations are directed to and apply to financial institutions.  It does not apply to private individuals such as the applicant.

“Even if, as appears to be argued, that the regulations itself would inevitably affect the applicant, this claim is speculative for the simple reason that in nowhere in the affidavit in support was it stated that the applicant operates an account with a financial institution and that the said institution had demanded his social media handle.”

Consequently, the judge said the suggestion that he would be negatively affected by the regulation is very “speculative and at large”.

He said there is a lack of evidence suggesting financial institutions have implemented the regulation, and it is causing disruptions and inconvenience.

Furthermore, Dimgba said if the applicant is “irritated by the requirement of the regulation”, he has a choice to “refuse to do business with any bank insisting on the information as part of its social media handle, but to seek other alternatives”.

PROVISION OF SOCIAL MEDIA HANDLES TO BANKS DO NOT TRANSLATE TO BREACH’

Dimgba said banks asking customers or potential clients to provide their social media handles is not a breach of privacy.

He said the essence of having a social media account was for one to be publicly visible communication-wise.

According to the judge, a social media handle, being in the public space, can be accessed by everyone whether or not consent was obtained.

As a result, he said it would be unreasonable to hold the respondent in breach of privacy.

“The apprehension of the Applicant of his social interactions being monitored is manifestly speculative in itself and rather incredulous to believe that the financial institutions have the luxury of time to concern itself with such frivolities,” the judge said.

 

 


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CBN Grants Approval to 14 New IMTOs  to Spur Liquidity

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that it has granted 14 new International Money Transfer Operators, IMTOs Approval-in-Principle (AIP) to double foreign-currency remittance inflows through formal channels amid foreign currency crisis.

CBN Grants Approval to 14 New IMTOs  to Spur Liquidity

Hakama Sidi Ali, acting director of Corporate Communications, CBN, disclosed this in a statement that the he initiative will help increase the sustained supply of foreign exchange in the official market by promoting greater competition and innovation amongst IMTOs, lowering the cost of remittance transactions and boosting financial inclusion.

CBN’s thinking is that increasing formal remittance flows, which are one of the major sources of foreign exchange and account for over 6 per cent of gross domestic product, would help ease the historical volatility in Nigeria’s exchange rate caused by external factors, such as fluctuations in foreign investment and oil export proceeds.

This will spur liquidity in Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), augmenting price discovery to enable a market-driven fair value for the naira,” Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN Governor, recently disclosed the apex bank’s target to double remittance flows into Nigeria within a year, which he firmly believed was possible.

On Wednesday, the Naira recorded its first N61 gain against the dollar at the foreign exchange market for the first time after weeks of decline.

 

 


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