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FXTM: Sentiment Towards Nigerian Economy Bearish, But Traders Hopeful

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Depressed oil prices have punished the largest economy in Africa with ongoing concerns over a slowdown in domestic economic momentum weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

Unemployment in 2016 has skyrocketed to shocking levels while rising inflationary pressures continue to rock the nation’s stability.

Although there was some optimism over the signed 2016 budget, questions are repeatedly being asked if the current funding could oversee the changes needed to steer Nigeria away from being heavily export dependent.

The business environment is changing rapidly and events such as the removal of fuel oil subsidies coupled with speculations of a Naira devaluation could create explosive levels of volatility consequently providing an opportunity for traders to attack.

Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy remains bearish, and the government’s bold move to relinquish fuel subsidies may have exacerbated fears of an economic slowdown further.

The painful combination of renewed militancy that has sabotaged production, coupled with ongoing low oil prices has left the government in a position where it is unable to sustain granting subsidies.

Although since the start of the year Nigeria has spent a staggering $5 billion on fuel subsidies, questions have been raised if this has reduced the suffering of low income earners or even mitigated the fuel scarcity.

With foreign exchange shortages rife, fuel importers are turning to the black market exchange rate consequently spending more local currency to buy the dollar and the transferred costs are bruising consumers further.

For an extended period, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has followed a negative path sending prices crashing to as much as N1.73 trillion since May 2015. Although the declines in stocks were in line with faltering oil prices, the resurgence in Dollar strength from the heightened US rate expectations could have attributed to this selloff.

While the Dollar may not be the legal tender in Nigeria, it seems to have a strong grip with an ever appreciating Dollar causing the Naira to weaken considerably in 2016.

Even without discussing the topic of a devaluation, the rising optimism over the Fed taking action in 2016 could leave the Naira vulnerable to further losses on the black markets and this should provide an opportunity for traders to attack.

Financial heavy weights, such as the International Monetary fund, have repeatedly indicated their readiness to elevate Nigeria’s economy with credit liquidity on the basis of a Naira devaluation, but President Muhammad Buhari continues to discount this idea.

It should be kept in mind that Nigeria is a consuming nation which imports most of its goods and because the only major export is oil, the benefits of a devaluation in that dimension may be limited.

Although the Central Bank of Nigeria has displayed some flexibility with speculations mounting over a potential flexi rate exchange policy of N285, the ongoing fears that the nation could enter a technical recession, coupled with a slash in credit ratings have made it difficult to acquire funding.

With all paths potentially pointing back to the IMF, if GDP growth in Q2 fails to meet expectations then the pressure could force the CBN to devalue and accept a loan from the IMF in an attempt to restart economic growth while diversifying from a reliance on oil.

Although the Nigerian economy is currently under pressure from the combination of Naira vulnerability, declining GDP, and weak oil prices, there is still some optimism over the nation retaining stability in the future.

It must be understood that the basic steps have already been implemented to slowly diversify away from being heavily oil export-reliant, with the key investments in agriculture and manufacturing potentially paving a way for the economy to break away from the shackles of falling oil prices.

While sellers may exploit the bearish nature of the Naira and Nigerian Stock Exchange as fears heighten over a potential recession, the long run could still be bullish.

If Nigeria is able to overcome this harsh period and emerge as a self-reliant economy that is not affected by external shocks, the Naira could claw back losses against the Dollar while the NSE trades higher as risk appetite returns.

 


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E-Financial

Zenith Bank Gets Regulatory Approval for Full Takeover of Paramount Bank

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Zenith Bank, Nigeria’s second biggest lender by market value, has received approval from the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) to acquire 100 percent of Paramount Bank Limited, clearing a key regulatory hurdle in its East African expansion drive.

In a statement on Thursday, CAK said the transaction is “unlikely to lead to a substantial prevention or lessening of competition in the market for the provision of banking services in Kenya” and would strengthen Paramount’s financial position, helping it meet enhanced core capital requirements over the long term.

The Kenyan regulator noted that the deal poses no risk of reduced competition in the country’s banking sector. Zenith currently has no banking operations in Kenya, while Paramount is a Tier III lender with a modest 0.2 percent market share.

“The approval is based on the Authority’s determination that the transaction is unlikely to harm competition, while any negative public interest concerns regarding employment can be addressed through mitigating remedies,” CAK added.

Paramount met the Central Bank of Kenya’s KSh3.0 billion core capital requirement in November last year, reporting KSh3.118 billion after raising KSh332 million from shareholders, according to Mwango Capital, a Nairobi-based research firm.

The deal reflects a broader shift among banks in East Africa’s largest economy as lenders seek growth opportunities beyond increasingly saturated home markets marked by weak credit expansion, rising regulatory costs, and intense competition.

While several global banks — including Standard Chartered and HSBC — have scaled back African operations over the past decade, Zenith’s move signals confidence in selective regional expansion, particularly in East Africa, where economic growth and financial inclusion trends remain supportive.

The banking group is also widening its continental footprint. Last month, the lender disclosed plans to expand into Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, as it targets generating up to half of its profits outside Nigeria over the medium term.

Historically, Nigeria, the continent most populous nation contributed as much as 90 percent of the bank’s earnings, a dominance that is now gradually easing.

Data cited by The Africa Report show that profit contributions from foreign subsidiaries rose to 27 percent in the first nine months of 2025, up from 14 percent in 2024.

Nigeria’s banking recapitalisation drive is also pushing large lenders such as Zenith to deploy capital beyond their home market. In January 2025, Zenith — which holds an international banking licence — raised N350.4 billion ($242 million), lifting its paid-up capital to N614.6 billion ($425 million).

With higher capital buffers in place, banks are reassessing how best to deploy fresh funds as domestic earnings normalise following two years of windfall gains.

As part of the approval, Zenith has been required to retain Paramount’s 78 employees for at least 12 months after the transaction is completed.

The bank is listed on the Nigerian and London stock exchanges and operates across corporate, commercial, retail, and investment banking. Its international subsidiaries span the United Kingdom, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Gambia, the UAE, and China.

 


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Court Jails Ogiemwonyi, Stockbroker for Theft of $80,000, N953m Shares Proceeds

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Victor Ogiemwonyi, a Lagos stockbroker, and Partnership Securities Limited, his company, have been convicted for allegedly stealing shares worth N953 million and $80,000 belonging to one Mr. Arnold Onyekwere Ekpe, a former managing director of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI).

Court Jails Ogiemwonyi, Stockbroker for Theft of $80,000, N953m Shares Proceeds

Ogiemwonyi was convicted after he was found guilty of two-count charges bordering on stealing, contrary to Section 285(1), (9) (b) and (c) of the Criminal Law of Lagos State, 2011 slammed on him by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Ekpe, through Messrs Margaret Onyema, his counsel, has sometimes in October 2016 in a petition to the EFCC alleged that he instructed the defendants to sell his 96,077,872 units of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) shares, which were sold at the rate of N1,296,885,311.02.

But he said out of the proceeds of the sale, the stock broker paid only N300,000,000.00 to him while he dishonestly diverted the balance for personal use.

Following investigations, the defendants were charged with two counts of stealing.

Count one reads:

”Victor Ogiemwonyi and Partnership Securities Limited between the months of June, 2016 and September, 2016 at Lagos within the jurisdiction of this honourable court dishonestly stole the sum of N953, 535,861.57 (Nine Hundred and Fifty Three Million, Five Hundred and Thirty Five Thousand, Eight Hundred and Sixty one Naira Fifty Seven Kobo) being part of the proceeds of sale of 96, 077, 872 Ecobank Transnational Incorporated Shares, property of Mr. Arnold Onyekwere Ekpe”.

Count Two reads:

“Victor Qgiemwonyi and Partnership Securities Limited sometime between June, 2016 and July, 2016 at Lagos within the jurisdiction of this honourable court dishonestly stole the sum of USD$80,000.00 (Eighty Thousand United States of America Dollars) which formed part of the accrued dividends on 96, 077,872 Ecobank Transnational incorporated Shares, property of Mr. Anold Onyekwere Ekpe”.

At trial, the prosecution, led by Ola Sesan, called five witnesses and tendered 67 exhibits, all of which were admitted and marked by the court.

The defence, on its part, called three witnesses, including the first defendant.

Delivering judgment on Wednesday, Justice Modupe Nicole-Clay of the Lagos State High Court sitting in Ikeja, Lagos convicted Ogiemwonyi and his company, Partnership Securities Limited, guilty on all counts.

The court sentenced the first convict to pay a fine of N10 million, while the second convict was ordered to pay a fine of N20 million.

Also, the court directed the convicts to pay back the entire money stolen from the petitioner, both in naira and dollars.

Recall that Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, had in 2017 banned Victor Ogiemwonyi, from operating in the capital market for life over alleged unprofessional conduct in the Nigerian capital market.

He was also banned for life from holding directorship position in any public company in Nigeria.

He was also ordered to pay a penalty of N100,000.

SEC said Ogiemwonyi was banned after he was found guilty of breaching Rule 1(iii) of the Code of Conduct for Capital Market Operators and Their Employees as contained in its Rules and Regulations made pursuant to the Investments and Securities Act 2007.

The ban also followed petition by EFCC to SEC accusing Ogiewonyi of misappropriation of about N1.24 billion, $80,000.00, stealing and dishonest conversion of proceeds of share sale belonging to an investor.

It was alleged that he used his company to dupe over 300 investors over N4.8 billion with Arnold Ekpe a former Managing Director of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, ETI, being one of his victims.


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FCCPC Delists Non-Compliant Digital Lenders Post-January 5 Deadline

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Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has commenced enforcement actions against Digital Money Lending (DML) operators that failed to regularise their operations under the Digital, Electronic, Online and Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations, 2025 (DEON Regulations).

FCCPC Delists Non-Compliant Digital Lenders Post-January 5 Deadline

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The commission withdrew the conditionally approved status of non-compliant DML firms and removed them from its official register of approved digital lenders, effective immediately after the January 5 compliance deadline.

FCCPC Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr Tunji Bello, announced the measures on Wednesday, emphasising their role in upholding regulatory standards and ensuring certainty in Nigeria’s digital lending sector.

Mr Bello stated that the compliance window provided under the DEON Regulations, which took effect on July 21, 2025, had closed, paving the way for fair, orderly and due process-driven enforcement.

He noted that the actions target persistent issues such as exploitative loan recovery tactics, data privacy breaches, harassment of borrowers and anti-competitive practices that have plagued the sector.

The DEON Regulations, issued on September 3, 2025, under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act 2018, mandate all non-bank digital lenders to register, adhere to fair interest rates, ethical debt recovery and robust data protection measures.

Non-compliance now attracts severe penalties, including fines up to N100 million or one per cent of annual turnover, operational restrictions, app store delistings and potential director disqualifications for up to five years.

As of late 2025, the FCCPC had granted full approval to 438 digital lending companies, with recent data indicating over 521 firms now under regulatory scrutiny post-deadline.

The commission’s phased crackdown involves collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria, Google and Apple for account freezes and global app removals targeting unregistered platforms.

Industry watchers described the enforcement as a landmark move to sanitise Nigeria’s fast-expanding digital credit market, which has seen rising borrower complaints despite earlier 2022 interim guidelines.

The FCCPC reiterated its commitment to balancing innovation with consumer protection, urging affected operators to swiftly meet requirements for reinstatement.


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