E-Financial
Naira Tumbles, to Hit N350/Dollar Today as CBN Ends Peg

Pent-up demand for dollars may push Nigeria’s naira at least 20 percent weaker when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) allows the currency of Africa’s biggest economy to float freely on Monday, said analysts including Renaissance Capital Ltd. and Exotix Partners LLP.
Bloomberg reported that demand for foreign currency has built up to about $3 billion since capital controls were imposed 15 months ago to defend the currency’s peg of 197-199 per dollar, according to Chapel Hill Denham Securities Ltd.
Elsewhere, the Nation newspapers reported that the interbank market, which opens by 9.00am and closes at 2.00pm, will see the naira-dollar exchange rate in a volatile state.
The newspaper said that the local currency is likely to exchange around N340/N350 against the greenback.
But Bloomberg added that even as the naira weakens, local stocks may extend the best three-day rally since April 2015 in anticipation of a return by foreign investors and as the risk of exclusion from global indexes fades.
Banks may gain as the policy change allows them to profit from foreign-exchange volatility and boost trading income, analysts at Exotix said.
“We think the rate will be around 250 or 260 per dollar” when the naira starts trading on the interbank market, said Tajudeen Ibrahim, head of equity research at Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham.
The central bank will probably help clear demand by selling dollars, he said, moderating potential volatility.
Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele announced the end of the currency peg on June 15, surprising analysts who had expected the oil producer to turn to a two-tiered system with tighter controls on the exchange rate. Nigeria has held the peg since March 2015, spending about $2.7 billion — 9.3 percent of its foreign reserves — on the measure this year, even as other oil exporters devalued their currencies as crude prices slumped by more than half since 2014.
Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards jumped to a record 333 per dollar on June 15 after Emefiele announced the changes. On the black market, dollars changed hands for 350 naira on Friday, Lagos-based Everdon Bureau de Change said by e-mail.
The naira could start trading at 260 per dollar, potentially weakening to 390 by year-end, before retracing, Renaissance said in a June 16 note.
‘Never Imagined’
“We never imagined a free-floating naira,” Johannesburg-based analyst Yvonne Mhango said. “This will release a pressure valve for the economy. We see the economy beginning to thaw and green shoots emerge possibly as soon as a year from now. Before then, we believe the macro picture will deteriorate.”
The naira could initially weaken beyond 300 to the dollar, before reaching “fair value” of 280 to 290, said Alan Cameron, London-based economist at Exotix.
Investment into Nigeria has shriveled as foreigners are deterred by capital controls, while local businesses have struggled to import raw materials and equipment. International carriers including United Airlines and Iberia have halted operations in the West African country, saying they couldn’t move revenue out.
“We see a lot of volatility from high dollar demand, because as of today, if you get 10 percent of your request you’re lucky,’’ Olubunmi Asaolu, an analyst at Lagos-based FBN Quest said by phone. While the naira could stabilize at about 290 per dollar, any move toward 350 “will cause mayhem” and prompt the central bank to moderate the drop by supplying additional greenbacks.
The central bank will select a group of around 10 primary dealers through which the naira will be traded. There will only be one official exchange rate and the bank will intervene in the market to buy or sell foreign exchange “as the need arises,” Emefiele said as he unveiled the new policy.
Demand for dollars won’t be satisfied on Monday alone and may take more than a week to clear, said Ibrahim at Chapel Hill. It might also be a while before buyers from abroad feel confident enough to acquire Nigerian assets, he said.
“The new market will start off slowly as investors will initially be cautious as they try to understand it,” Ibrahim said. “We’re unlikely to see foreign investors coming back very quickly. They’ll take their time. It might be a couple of weeks before we see new foreign money being invested.”
Heineken NV, which controls Nigeria’s largest brewer, views a rate of 250 to 280 naira per euro and 283 to 316 per dollar as “not that bad,” said Chief Financial Officer Laurence Debroux. Not having access to hard currency has been an obstacle to operating in Nigeria and a return of liquidity in Africa’s most-populous nation would be “great,” he told a June 16 investor meeting.
Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards rose 1.6 percent to 320 per dollar on June 17, suggesting traders expect the Nigerian currency to trade around that level in the market. Stocks climbed 2.7 percent on June 17, capping an 8.2 percent three-day rally, the best since April 2015. The yield on Nigeria’s 2023 dollar bonds dropped 4 basis points to 7.2 percent, after debt gained the most since 2014 on June 15.
The turnabout in foreign-exchange policy came after gross domestic product contracted in the three months through March for the first time since 2004 and inflation accelerated to 15.6 percent in May. MSCI Inc. said June 15 — before the central bank’s announcement — it may drop Nigerian stocks from its Frontier Markets Index because of capital-mobility issues.
To help reduce currency volatility, the central bank will introduce over-the-counter naira futures trading, which would move non-urgent foreign-exchange demand from the spot to the derivatives market, Emefiele said. There will be no pre-determined spread on spot transactions, he said.
Investors may remain wary of buying naira assets given that Nigeria’s oil production, which accounts for the vast bulk of export earnings, has plummeted since February to an almost 30-year low because of an upsurge of militant attacks on crude and gas pipelines.
E-Financial
FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), in collaboration with the Joint Revenue Board (JRB), has announced the implementation of a nationwide Taxpayer Identification (Tax ID) system, mandating all taxable persons in the country to obtain a unified tax identity.

The directive, unveiled in a public notice issued on Monday, is anchored in sections 6, 7, and 8 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025.
The provisions require every individual and entity liable to tax in Nigeria to register for a Tax ID as part of broader reforms aimed at strengthening tax administration.
According to the notice, the Tax ID will function as a single, consolidated identifier for taxpayers, enabling seamless interaction with tax authorities across federal, state, and local levels.
The authorities said the system is designed to eliminate duplication of records, improve data integrity, and enhance the overall efficiency of tax-related processes.
The initiative forms part of ongoing efforts by regulators to deepen transparency, boost compliance, and curb revenue leakages within the tax ecosystem.
By harmonising taxpayer data across all tiers of government, officials expect improved accountability and more accurate tracking of tax obligations.
Under the new framework, the Tax ID will replace the existing Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) validation system currently in use. Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), financial institutions, and other organisations relying on the TIN Validation API have been directed to transition to the new Tax ID infrastructure.
The NRS and JRB also advised organisations requiring system integration or validation services to engage with designated departments within both agencies for access to the Tax ID Application Programming Interface (API) and related technical guidelines.
Authorities say the reform will simplify registration, filing, and payment processes for taxpayers, while providing the government with a more robust mechanism for revenue assurance and fiscal planning.
The rollout signals a significant step in Nigeria’s ongoing tax modernisation agenda, as policymakers seek to expand the tax base and improve non-oil revenue mobilisation amid evolving economic pressures.
E-Financial
SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.

T+1 settlement is a financial rule requiring that securities trades (like stocks, bonds, and ETFs) be finalized and ownership transferred just one business day after the trade is executed. It replaces the older T+2 system, giving investors faster access to their funds and reducing overall market risk.
This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.
In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”
Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.
The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.
“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.
It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”
SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.
“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.
The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.
E-Financial
Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

Nigeria’s banking sector is losing an estimated N2.5 trillion in annual earnings due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s high Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) policy, according to a new report by Chapel Hill Denham.

The investment banking and research firm said the policy continues to impose significant constraints on bank profitability by requiring lenders to keep a large portion of customer deposits with the Central Bank without earning returns on them, effectively locking away funds that could otherwise support lending and income generation.
In its report titled “The Nigerian Banking Paradox: High Returns, Deep Discounts,” Chapel Hill Denham noted that although Nigerian banks rank among the highest return-on-equity performers in Africa, they remain undervalued compared to peers, largely due to regulatory constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The firm identified the CRR regime as a key structural factor limiting the sector’s earnings potential, arguing that it reduces balance sheet efficiency and restricts credit creation to the real economy.
According to the report, banks are still required to pay interest on deposits while a significant portion of those funds remains sterilised at the apex bank.
Chapel Hill Denham stated that the current policy framework, which evolved in response to past financial sector instability and exchange rate pressures, may now be exerting a heavier drag on growth and profitability than originally intended.
“Our analysis reveals that Nigerian banks operate under a uniquely restrictive regulatory perimeter,” the report said, adding that the structure suppresses reported returns despite underlying profitability strength.
The report also compared Nigeria’s reserve requirements with other jurisdictions, noting that the country’s CRR remains significantly higher than several African and emerging markets.
While South Africa operates a 2.5 per cent CRR, Kenya maintains 4.25 per cent, Ghana 15 per cent, and Egypt 16 per cent, with Morocco reported to have reduced its reserve ratio to zero.
Analysts at the firm said a moderation of Nigeria’s CRR from 50 per cent to 30 per cent could release up to N8 trillion into the banking system and potentially boost annual pre-tax profits by about N800 billion.
They added that investors currently price Nigerian banks on the assumption that the tight monetary stance will persist, limiting valuation upside despite strong earnings performance.
At its February 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria retained the CRR for Deposit Money Banks at 45 per cent, while Merchant Banks remained at 16 per cent, and public sector deposits outside the Treasury Single Account framework at 75 per cent, as part of efforts to sustain tight monetary conditions and manage liquidity pressures.
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