E-Financial
Naira Tumbles, to Hit N350/Dollar Today as CBN Ends Peg

Pent-up demand for dollars may push Nigeria’s naira at least 20 percent weaker when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) allows the currency of Africa’s biggest economy to float freely on Monday, said analysts including Renaissance Capital Ltd. and Exotix Partners LLP.
Bloomberg reported that demand for foreign currency has built up to about $3 billion since capital controls were imposed 15 months ago to defend the currency’s peg of 197-199 per dollar, according to Chapel Hill Denham Securities Ltd.
Elsewhere, the Nation newspapers reported that the interbank market, which opens by 9.00am and closes at 2.00pm, will see the naira-dollar exchange rate in a volatile state.
The newspaper said that the local currency is likely to exchange around N340/N350 against the greenback.
But Bloomberg added that even as the naira weakens, local stocks may extend the best three-day rally since April 2015 in anticipation of a return by foreign investors and as the risk of exclusion from global indexes fades.
Banks may gain as the policy change allows them to profit from foreign-exchange volatility and boost trading income, analysts at Exotix said.
“We think the rate will be around 250 or 260 per dollar” when the naira starts trading on the interbank market, said Tajudeen Ibrahim, head of equity research at Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham.
The central bank will probably help clear demand by selling dollars, he said, moderating potential volatility.
Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele announced the end of the currency peg on June 15, surprising analysts who had expected the oil producer to turn to a two-tiered system with tighter controls on the exchange rate. Nigeria has held the peg since March 2015, spending about $2.7 billion — 9.3 percent of its foreign reserves — on the measure this year, even as other oil exporters devalued their currencies as crude prices slumped by more than half since 2014.
Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards jumped to a record 333 per dollar on June 15 after Emefiele announced the changes. On the black market, dollars changed hands for 350 naira on Friday, Lagos-based Everdon Bureau de Change said by e-mail.
The naira could start trading at 260 per dollar, potentially weakening to 390 by year-end, before retracing, Renaissance said in a June 16 note.
‘Never Imagined’
“We never imagined a free-floating naira,” Johannesburg-based analyst Yvonne Mhango said. “This will release a pressure valve for the economy. We see the economy beginning to thaw and green shoots emerge possibly as soon as a year from now. Before then, we believe the macro picture will deteriorate.”
The naira could initially weaken beyond 300 to the dollar, before reaching “fair value” of 280 to 290, said Alan Cameron, London-based economist at Exotix.
Investment into Nigeria has shriveled as foreigners are deterred by capital controls, while local businesses have struggled to import raw materials and equipment. International carriers including United Airlines and Iberia have halted operations in the West African country, saying they couldn’t move revenue out.
“We see a lot of volatility from high dollar demand, because as of today, if you get 10 percent of your request you’re lucky,’’ Olubunmi Asaolu, an analyst at Lagos-based FBN Quest said by phone. While the naira could stabilize at about 290 per dollar, any move toward 350 “will cause mayhem” and prompt the central bank to moderate the drop by supplying additional greenbacks.
The central bank will select a group of around 10 primary dealers through which the naira will be traded. There will only be one official exchange rate and the bank will intervene in the market to buy or sell foreign exchange “as the need arises,” Emefiele said as he unveiled the new policy.
Demand for dollars won’t be satisfied on Monday alone and may take more than a week to clear, said Ibrahim at Chapel Hill. It might also be a while before buyers from abroad feel confident enough to acquire Nigerian assets, he said.
“The new market will start off slowly as investors will initially be cautious as they try to understand it,” Ibrahim said. “We’re unlikely to see foreign investors coming back very quickly. They’ll take their time. It might be a couple of weeks before we see new foreign money being invested.”
Heineken NV, which controls Nigeria’s largest brewer, views a rate of 250 to 280 naira per euro and 283 to 316 per dollar as “not that bad,” said Chief Financial Officer Laurence Debroux. Not having access to hard currency has been an obstacle to operating in Nigeria and a return of liquidity in Africa’s most-populous nation would be “great,” he told a June 16 investor meeting.
Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards rose 1.6 percent to 320 per dollar on June 17, suggesting traders expect the Nigerian currency to trade around that level in the market. Stocks climbed 2.7 percent on June 17, capping an 8.2 percent three-day rally, the best since April 2015. The yield on Nigeria’s 2023 dollar bonds dropped 4 basis points to 7.2 percent, after debt gained the most since 2014 on June 15.
The turnabout in foreign-exchange policy came after gross domestic product contracted in the three months through March for the first time since 2004 and inflation accelerated to 15.6 percent in May. MSCI Inc. said June 15 — before the central bank’s announcement — it may drop Nigerian stocks from its Frontier Markets Index because of capital-mobility issues.
To help reduce currency volatility, the central bank will introduce over-the-counter naira futures trading, which would move non-urgent foreign-exchange demand from the spot to the derivatives market, Emefiele said. There will be no pre-determined spread on spot transactions, he said.
Investors may remain wary of buying naira assets given that Nigeria’s oil production, which accounts for the vast bulk of export earnings, has plummeted since February to an almost 30-year low because of an upsurge of militant attacks on crude and gas pipelines.
E-Financial
IMF Raises Concerns over N8.83 Trillion Unreported Spending in Nigeria’s Budgets

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal transparency, disclosing that about two per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated at N8.83 trillion, was omitted from recent official budget documents.

Bola Tinubu
Unreported public spending—also known as off-budget expenditure—happens when a government spends money on public projects or services without including those costs in official budget documents.
This practice hides the true size of the government’s deficit, hides debt accumulation, and distorts overall economic data.
The IMF said the unreported expenditure has created a significant gap between Nigeria’s reported fiscal deficit and its actual financing requirements, making government borrowing appear lower than it truly is.
Speaking at an industry event in Lagos, Christian Ebeke, resident representative of IMF in Nigeria, said the expenditure should have been reflected in the country’s fiscal accounts to present a more accurate picture of public finances.
“So far we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” Ebeke said.
The estimate translates to approximately N8.83 trillion, based on the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) latest nominal GDP figure of N441.5 trillion for 2025.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s nominal GDP increased from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025 following improved performance across both the oil and non-oil sectors.
Using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s average exchange rate of N1,436 to the dollar for 2025, the omitted expenditure amounts to about $6.15 billion.
Ebeke attributed the discrepancy largely to capital projects executed outside the formal budget framework, noting that the omission had distorted assessments of Nigeria’s fiscal position and public investment profile.
He explained that some government spending was neither captured in approved budget documents nor reflected in budget implementation reports, resulting in an understatement of the country’s actual fiscal deficit.
According to him, the lack of comprehensive reporting also complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers are left without a complete picture of government finances.
“The lack of full reporting can also complicate coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, as policymakers may not have a clear picture of the true deficit,” he said.
Ebeke warned that off-budget spending raises broader concerns about accountability, procurement processes and institutional oversight, stressing that improving fiscal transparency should remain a priority for the government.
“Improving transparency is critical,” he added, noting that expenditures outside the formal budget process undermine effective oversight and public accountability.
The IMF representative, however, acknowledged that the Federal Government has begun taking steps to address the problem through legislative reforms aimed at bringing previously unreported expenditures within the formal budget framework.
He said the authorities were working to amend existing budget laws to ensure greater disclosure of government spending but stressed that such reforms must be accompanied by timely and comprehensive budget implementation reports.
According to him, closing the reporting gap is essential to strengthening public financial management, improving transparency and restoring confidence in Nigeria’s fiscal framework.
The IMF’s latest observations come months after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased Nigeria’s economy, changing the GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, a revision that significantly increased the size of the country’s economy and, by implication, the value of expenditure estimates expressed as a percentage of GDP.
The concerns also follow the IMF’s recent Article IV Consultation on Nigeria, in which the Fund commended the Federal Government’s ongoing economic reforms for improving macroeconomic stability and boosting investor confidence, while cautioning that persistent structural weaknesses continue to limit the impact of the reforms on the broader population.
E-Financial
Visa Targets Nigeria, Others in Visa Pay Expansion Drive

Visa is expanding access to Visa Pay for additional issuers across Africa through a software development kit (SDK) that enables banks, mobile money operators, and fintechs embed Visa Pay capabilities into their existing mobile applications and to launch virtual cards and payment experiences quickly and securely.

According to a statement from the company, the solution is an interoperable and secure way for banked and unbanked consumers to transact and move money across participating banks, fintechs and mobile networks.
Issuers adopting Visa Pay’s SDK span multiple markets across the continent including Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Comoros, Mauritius, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania, and Sierra Leone.
With integrated issuer processing capabilities, built-in customer experience, tokenisation readiness and Visa-certified security and compliance components, SDK helps accelerate and simplify the deployment of Visa Pay, particularly in markets where infrastructure constraints can slow digital transformation.
Looking ahead, Visa Pay will continue to evolve with new capabilities designed to further simplify everyday payments. Among the features expected to launch soon is Tap to Pay, which will enable consumers to make secure contactless payments by simply tapping their phone at a contactless-enabled checkout terminal, said the firm.
“Visa Pay is designed to help issuers meet a wide range of market needs, from secure e-commerce and remittances to mobile money-linked virtual cards, humanitarian disbursements, person-to-person payments and future contactless experiences,” said Godfrey Sullivan, senior vice president and head of products and solutions for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at Visa.
“The adoption of Visa Pay represents an important step in strengthening our digital payments capabilities and supporting our broader digital transformation agenda. At a time when Sudan’s current challenges have increased the need for resilient and accessible financial services, we believe digital payment solutions play a critical role in enhancing customer convenience, supporting business continuity, and promoting financial inclusion” commented Yousif Eltinay, CEO of United Capital Bank, Sudan.
According to Jesse Jackson, chief digital and innovation officer for Tanzania Commercial Bank, from a business perspective, Visa Pay will enable it accelerate digital adoption among both consumers and merchants, increase transaction activity within its ecosystem, expand merchant acceptance and strengthen customer engagement.
“It also supports our broader goal of driving financial inclusion by bringing more individuals and businesses into the digital economy.”
E-Financial
NDIC Warns Against Transactions with 46 Closed Microfinance Banks

Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has warned members of the public against carrying out any transactions with the 46 microfinance banks whose operating licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

NDIC
The corporation issued the warning on Thursday following the revocation of the licences by the CBN on July 1, 2026.
In a statement, the NDIC said it had been appointed the official liquidator of the failed banks pursuant to Section 12(2) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 and Sections 55(1) and 55(2) of the NDIC Act 2023.
It stated that the affected microfinance banks were no longer authorised to carry out banking business in Nigeria following the withdrawal of their licences.
The corporation cautioned members of the public against engaging in any unauthorised transactions with the closed banks or attempting to tamper with their assets and records.
It warned that any attempt by individuals to remove, conceal, retain or interfere with the assets, records or properties of the failed institutions would constitute a violation of the law and could attract appropriate legal sanctions.
According to the NDIC, it has commenced the process of an orderly closure of the banks through their immediate takeover, verification of depositors and payment of insured deposits to eligible customers.
The corporation assured depositors that the liquidation process would be conducted in accordance with relevant laws and regulations.
It added that depositors and the general public would be kept informed on further steps regarding the liquidation exercise, including the verification process and payment of insured sums to eligible depositors.
The NDIC urged customers of the affected banks to remain calm, assuring them of its commitment to protecting insured deposits and ensuring an orderly resolution of the failed financial institutions.
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