E-Financial
FXTM Analysis: Global Markets In State of Shock Over UK Referendum Outcome

The financial markets and spectators across the globe are in a complete state of shock following the unexpected outcome to the EU referendum that the UK has voted to leave the European Union.
Markets were completely reliant in the final lead up to the vote on following the bookmakers, who heavily favoured a one-sided remain and as such, were simply positioned for only a remain outcome.
Investors were guilty of ignoring the consistent opinion polls that repeatedly pointed out that the vote was going to be close and as a result, the possibility of a UK exit had been severely under-priced throughout the financial markets.
Make no mistake, around this time last year the markets were in complete pandemonium over what implications a “Grexit” could have on the global markets and the ramifications of a “Brexit” will carry far more severe risks.
What happens next? ‘Sell the news’ is going to become the name of the game.
Despite all of this historic movement in the British Pound overnight, this eventual outcome has not been priced into the equity markets, and the open to both the European and US session later today is going to be under the watchful eye of the world.
The GBPUSD itself dropped from a cliff overnight, and has recorded historic losses from 1.50 to 1.32 in a matter of hours.
It is important to point out that the reason for the GBPUSD falling to such extraordinary levels is not just limited to the UK voting to exit the European Union, investors have been very quick to also price in the uncertainty over the future of UK Prime Minister David Cameron and also the likelihood that this shocking news possibly opens the doors for another Scottish Referendum down the road.
There are also many other unanswered questions such as would this impact the UK’s credit rating and how will the Bank of England (BoE) react to such a shock.
There has also been an expected correlated move in the Eurodollar overnight, which itself has declined from 1.14 to just above 1.09 as a result of questions now lingering over the future of the European Union as a whole.
Headlines have circulated over the past hour alone around political parties in both Italy and France possibly planning on campaigning for their own referendums in the future.
I would personally not see this as a major threat for the time-being, but it could be interesting to monitor the possible reaction to Denmark and Sweden following the news that the UK has voted to leave the European Union.
It must also be made clear that the unexpected shock overnight must have implications on the Federal Reserve and their intention towards raising US interest rates later in 2016.
With so much uncertainty set to surround the global economy, US interest rate expectations must be pushed back and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was very explicit in stating the risks a Brexit outcome could provide to the global economy.
This possible correlation has not quite yet been priced into the Dollar and if US futures point as sharply lower as what the European futures are currently suggesting, there is a threat of a knock-on effect on the Dollar.
We saw the USD plunge sharply lower following the events of Black Monday in August and it is possible history could repeat itself if US markets enter trading under such heavy pressure.
Gold has reached its highest level since March 2014 as a result of safe-haven demand following the United Kingdom voting to leave the EU.
After reaching levels beyond $1350 earlier in trading, Gold is now consolidating somewhere around the $1320 region. If risk aversion sweeps across the financial markets as expected following diminished risk appetite from investors, Gold could continue to see further support due to its status as a safe-haven asset.
Of course, this would be even more possible if US interest rate expectations do get pushed back as a result of such a shock overnight.
Due to limited attraction towards risk from investors, the oil markets have dropped as expected because concerns over the global economy would naturally make investors question demand for the commodity.
What does this mean to the Bank of Japan? A UK exit outcome represents their worst nightmare. With risk aversion now likely to be a theme in the markets for a prolonged period following such a shock overnight, there is quite simply nothing the central bank can do to prevent Yen demand from traders.
Can they intervene? Yes they can, but it would not be a wise idea to even consider this until this outcome has been priced in across the financial markets.
If the BoJ are not patient in allowing investors to adjust to the outcome of the referendum and the possible ramifications, the BoJ simply risks entering a game of cat-and mouse. In times of uncertainty the Japanese Yen becomes the best friend for traders and despite all of the unbelievable gains for the Yen throughout the first six months of 2016, the outcome to the overnight referendum has just encouragement towards the Yen towards new levels.
Quite simply put, the reaction to Gold, the Japanese Yen and how heavy equity markets are at threat to falling is the simplest reflection of how unprepared traders were for this outcome.
By Jameel Ahmad, VP of Market Research at FXTM
E-Financial
Court Asks CBN, NIBSS to Seek Settlement in N98.5Bn Patent Suit

Justice Deinde Dipeolu of the Federal High Court in Lagos has urged all parties in the N98.5 billion patent infringement lawsuit involving the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) to pursue an amicable settlement before trial begins.

The judge issued the directive on Tuesday after noting that CBN, Avanage Nigeria Limited, and the Registrar of Patents and Designs had no legal representation in court.
Justice Dipeolu declined to start the hearing and ordered that hearing notices be served on the absent defendants.
The suit was filed by Enterprise Logistics Speciale Limited and Samuel Kolajo, its managing director.
They are claiming N98.5 billion in damages for alleged infringement of patented cash management technology, breach of a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA), and financial losses from the non-deployment of their PillarSalt solution on Nigeria’s national payment infrastructure.
At the hearing, Tayo Oyetibo, SAN, appeared for the plaintiffs, while Olaoluwa Ale-Daniel represented NIBSS.
The CBN was not represented.
Oyetibo told the court the plaintiffs’ witness was ready to testify, but Justice Dipeolu held that the trial could not commence without all parties present.
The judge cited the Federal High Court Act, which encourages alternative dispute resolution, and directed both sides to engage in meaningful settlement talks.
NIBSS counsel argued that the company operates under CBN’s regulatory oversight and cannot act unilaterally. He also said NIBSS opposes creating a monopoly, which he claimed is central to the dispute.
Oyetibo countered that the plaintiffs invested heavily in developing patented innovations now allegedly being infringed. He said the PillarSalt Cash Management Solution would improve Nigeria’s cash handling system and boost the economy if deployed.
He blamed what he termed the selfish interests of some officials for blocking the technology but confirmed the plaintiffs are open to negotiation.
The case was adjourned to October 15 and 16, 2026, for trial if settlement talks fail.
In its claim before the court, Enterprise Logistics Speciale revealed that it developed several cash management technologies from 2011, including Mobile Smart Deposit, Mobile Cash Sorting and Processing Device, PillarSalt Cash Supply Chain, and Terminal Management System.
The firm stated that the innovations are covered by three patent certificates under the Patents and Designs Act.
The plaintiffs alleged that after sharing details with the defendants, the CBN issued Guidelines for Bank Neutral Cash Hubs (BNCH) that replicate their patented processes without consent.
They also accused the CBN of commercialising their inventions and failing to protect their rights as a regulator.
Accordingly, the plaintiffs are asking the judge to declare them exclusive owners of the patented technologies, restrain the defendants from using the inventions without written consent, compel NIBSS to activate PillarSalt on the Nigeria Central Switch within 30 days, nullify CBN’s BNCH Guidelines, and award N500 million for patent infringement, N200 million for breach of NDA, and N97.8 billion for losses since 2016.
In its amended defence, NIBSS denied liability. It said it did not infringe any patent or breach the NDA, and did not refuse to integrate the solution.
NIBSS argued that the plaintiffs seek exclusive rights that would create a monopoly and block other operators from the national payment infrastructure.
It added that integration decisions require regulatory and board approval.
E-Financial
World Bank Approves Fresh $1.25Bn Loan for Nigeria

The World Bank has approved a $1.25 billion Development Policy Financing loan for Nigeria despite widespread public criticism over the country’s rising debt profile, as it unveiled a new six-year partnership strategy aimed at accelerating private sector-led growth and job creation.

The lender announced on Wednesday that its Board had approved the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration Development Policy Financing operation as part of a broader Country Partnership Framework covering 2026 to 2032.
The approval comes days after a number of Nigerians criticised the proposed facility on social media, questioning the country’s growing reliance on external borrowing and demanding greater accountability over previous World Bank loans.
The statement read, “The World Bank Group has endorsed a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria spanning 2026–2032, setting out a strategy to create more and better jobs at scale by unlocking private sector–led growth. As part of this broader support, the World Bank has also approved the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (NAIJA) Development Policy Financing (DPF) operation, which supports Nigeria’s transition toward a more inclusive growth model that spurs growth and create jobs.”
According to the World Bank, the $1.25 billion facility will support reforms designed to strengthen the foundations for economic growth, improve competitiveness and stimulate private sector investment.
The statement noted, “The NAIJA DPF operation, which amounts to $1.25 billion, supports a set of Government reforms to strengthen the foundations for growth and competitiveness.”
The lender said the operation would back reforms to deepen Nigeria’s capital markets, modernise regulations for the digital economy and e-governance, advance power sector reforms, reduce trade barriers under the country’s commitments to the Economic Community of West African States and the African Continental Free Trade Area, improve access to quality agricultural seeds and strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation.
The financing forms part of the World Bank Group’s wider support package for Nigeria, combining policy-based lending with investments in energy, digital infrastructure, agriculture, private sector development and social protection.
The bank said the package is intended to help create jobs, strengthen economic resilience and reduce poverty by encouraging greater private sector participation in the economy.
E-Financial
S&P Sees Increased Loan Losses for Nigerian, African Banks Amid Global Risks

Nigerian banks are expected to contend with elevated loan losses through 2026 as high interest rates, persistent inflation and the withdrawal of regulatory forbearance continue to weigh on the quality of their loan books, S&P Global Ratings has said.

The outlook reflected a broader trend across Africa’s largest banking markets, with lenders in Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt forecast to face rising credit losses as geopolitical tensions, tighter global financial conditions and stubborn inflation increase pressure on businesses and households.
The projections are contained in S&P Global Ratings’ ‘Global Banking Outlook 2026 Midyear Update: Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA),’ release.
The ratings agency said banking systems across emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa remain broadly resilient, but warned that operating conditions are becoming more challenging.
“We expect many banking sectors in emerging EMEA, despite general resilience, will face increasing credit losses, as rising inflation weighs on household disposable income and corporate profitability,” the report stated.
S&P said a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could further worsen banks’ asset quality across the region.
“If the instability in the Middle East continues for a prolonged period, asset quality deterioration and the related increase in credit losses could be significant,” it said.
The report also identified uncertainty over the United States Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path and weaker investor confidence in emerging markets as additional risks that could tighten financing conditions across emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
For Nigeria, however, S&P said the country is less vulnerable to the direct spillover effects of the Middle East conflict because it is a net oil exporter and an emerging producer of refined fuels.
“As a net oil exporter and an emerging producer of refined fuels, Nigeria is less exposed to the spillover effects from the Middle East war,” the report noted.
Even so, S&P expects domestic economic conditions to remain a challenge for the banking sector, with inflation, unemployment and poverty projected to stay elevated. It added that high interest rates and the removal of regulatory forbearance would continue to put pressure on banks’ asset quality.
“Additionally, the removal of regulatory forbearance and high interest rates will continue to weigh on banks’ asset quality,” the report said.
Against that backdrop, S&P expects Nigeria’s non-performing loan ratio to stabilise at between six and seven per cent in 2026, while credit losses remain elevated at between two and 2.5 per cent.
Despite those pressures, the agency said Nigerian banks are expected to generate sufficient earnings to absorb higher provisioning costs.
“We expect most banks will be able to absorb the incremental provisioning requirements thanks to their strong profitability, even as average return on equity normalises at about 20 per cent to 23 per cent in 2026, compared with an estimated 25 per cent in 2025,” it stated.
In Egypt, S&P said banks’ creditworthiness remains closely tied to that of the sovereign because exposure to the public sector accounted for about 61 per cent of total banking assets as of December 31, 2025.
It expects the Middle East conflict to slow economic growth and weaken private sector credit demand in the country. Combined with tighter monetary policy, average credit losses are projected to increase to about 150 basis points in 2026 and 2027 from about 130 basis points in 2025.
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