News
FG Lacks Ideas to Turnaround Economy, Gloom Ahead- Bloomberg
Bloomberg, the very authoritative new source has reported that President Muhammadu Buhari’s government lacks ideas on how to reverse Nigeria’s economic conundrum and warned that the country’s economy could shrink this year.
Analysts including Yvonne Mhango of Renaissance Capital Ltd, told Bloomberg that Buhari’s vision to diversify the economy of Nigeria, which relies on oil for more than 70 percent of revenue, has not translated into big investments, and infrastructure to support local manufacturers doesn’t exist yet.
Last month, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) allowed the naira to devalue after a 15-month currency peg curbed investment and contributed to a 0.4 percent contraction in the economy in the three months through March.
With inflation at a six-year high, the Monetary Policy Committee will probably raise borrowing costs by 400 basis points by the end of 2016, according to Standard Chartered.
The four-month delay in passing the record 6.1 trillion naira ($21.6 billion) budget, which was meant to stimulate growth in Africa’s largest economy by spending on roads, ports and electricity generation, will reduce its efficiency, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“That’s the missing link and we haven’t heard enough on how they are going to improve and make the business environment more conducive,” Mhango said by phone from Johannesburg on July 12. “There has been little colour on fiscal policies to drive the growth agenda.” said Renaissance’s Mhango.
Nigeria is facing a revenue squeeze as earnings from oil fall due to lower prices and a resurgence of militant activity destroyed installations in the crude-producing Niger River delta, slashing output to an almost three-decade low.
The naira peg at 197-199 per dollar, compared with an unofficial exchange rate of 340 per dollar just before the currency was allowed to float, caused fuel shortages for months as businesses struggled to access foreign currency to place orders. Restrictions on the use of dollars to import goods ranging from steel products to rice still apply.
The naira strengthened 0.18 percent to 282.37 per dollar by 4:03 p.m. in Lagos. It traded at 360 on the black market according to Aminu Gwadabe, president of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria.
“It is not sufficient to focus on going from a de facto peg to a flexible regime,” Gene Leon, the IMF’s resident representative in Nigeria, said in an interview in the capital, Abuja, on July 8. “The authorities need to be announcing at the same time how the change affects fiscal policy, how is it impacting inflation, balance sheets of corporates, balance sheets of the banks, and how the increased fiscal receipts allows the undertaking of development.”
Leon said the economy will probably contract this year, even as the IMF still forecast growth of 2.3 percent in its April Regional Economic Outlook.
Renaissance Capital projects the economy will shrink 0.5 percent in 2016 and London-based Capital Economics Ltd. forecasts a contraction of 1 percent. Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele said in May the economy is likely to fall into recession.
Inflation probably accelerated to 16.2 percent last month, from 15.6 percent in May, according to the median of seven economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Price growth and the need to support the naira and attract inflows could force policy makers to increase the benchmark interest rate by as much as 400 basis points to 16 percent this year, according to Standard Chartered head of Africa macro research Razia Khan. Raising rates to fight inflation will mean “squeezing the little life out of growth,” the IMF’s Leon said.
Nigeria urgently needs to boost electricity generation to improve its economic outlook, according to Alan Cameron, London-based economist at Exotix.
The nation generated an average of 2,464 megawatts of electricity on June 6, according to information from the power ministry, less than half of the installed capacity of 5,000 megawatts for a population of 180 million people. It compares to power-generating capacity of more than 40,000 megawatts in South Africa, which has a population a third of the size.
“A lot of what has gone wrong in the economy –- notably fuel shortages and oil output disruptions –- happened in the second quarter rather than the first quarter. So things are likely to get quite a bit worse before they get better,” John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics, said in an e-mailed response to questions.
“This year is going to be terrible for the economy no matter what they do. The goal of policy now is damage limitation rather than sustained growth.”
Accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) adoption could increase Africa’s GDP by up to 4% over the next decade, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In a report released on Tuesday, titled Africa Can Grow Faster With AI—If It Moves Now, economists from the IMF’s Africa Department say current levels of AI adoption and utilisation are expected to contribute just 0.2% to the region’s GDP over the next 10 years.
However, the report says stronger adoption, supported by the right infrastructure and policies, could raise the economic impact to about 4% by extending AI beyond today’s digitally connected firms.
Martin Schindler and other IMF economists say: “AI adoption in sub-Saharan Africa currently lags well behind every other region. If richer economies race ahead while African firms and governments lag, the productivity gap between the region and the rest of the world will only widen.”
Early signs of AI adoption are emerging across Africa, with countries including Zimbabwe, Kenya, Egypt and Nigeria developing AI strategies.
Telecommunications operators, including Vodacom, Econet, Africell and MTN, are also integrating AI into their operations and networks.
Other examples include chatbots supporting teaching and learning in Nigeria and the South African Revenue Service’s use of data analytics for targeted tax audits.
However, the IMF says AI adoption must extend beyond these early use cases to deliver meaningful economic benefits.
“For the region, AI’s main promise is not about replacing office workers, but boosting productivity across the economy—helping informal firms manage inventory, enabling farmers to increase yields, and supporting mid-sized firms to transition to formality and export readiness,” the report reads.
The IMF is urging governments to prioritise investment in reliable electricity, affordable broadband, data infrastructure and digital skills to support wider AI adoption.
Many African countries, including Zimbabwe, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon, continue to face electricity shortages, while broadband services remain costly and coverage is uneven.
The Fund believes stronger investment in power, connectivity, regional data infrastructure and digital skills would help unlock AI’s economic potential.
National Population Commission (NPC) has commenced the nationwide digital registration of births and deaths under the Electronic Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (E-CRVS) system to strengthen legal identity management and improve demographic data.
Speaking at a press briefing in Lokoja on Tuesday, Mr Afolabi Yori, federal commissioner representing Kogi, said the initiative became operational nationwide on July 1, through the VitalReg platform.
Yori described the development as a landmark in Nigeria’s civil registration system, noting that it would modernise birth and death registration through a technology-driven platform that meets international standards.
He said the digital platform would improve service delivery, strengthen data integrity and ensure that every birth and death occurring in Nigeria was accurately documented and securely stored.
According to him, civil registration is more than an administrative process, as it provides reliable statistics that support public policy formulation, resource allocation and national development planning.
“Nigeria records an estimated five million births annually, yet millions of births and deaths remain unregistered.
“Birth registration coverage currently stands at about 57 per cent nationwide, while death registration remains below 20 per cent,” he said.
The commissioner said that the commission had established 4,011 functional registration centres across the country’s 774 local government areas and was working to expand the number to about 8,000.
He added that the commission was strengthening collaboration with stakeholders to improve the capacity of registration personnel and ensure prompt documentation of vital events through the VitalReg platform.
Yori said the platform would provide faster registration services, 24-hour online access, digital certificate issuance where applicable, and reduce paperwork, waiting time and unnecessary travel.
He disclosed that the platform was being operated under a Public-Private Partnership with Barnks-forte Technologies Ltd. as the commission’s technical partner to ensure system availability, cybersecurity and continuous technological improvement.
He called on parents, healthcare institutions, traditional and religious leaders, civil society organisations, development partners and the media to support the initiative by encouraging the prompt registration of births and deaths.
Earlier, Samuel Omonakpeme, director in Kogi, NPC State, described the commencement of the digital registration system as another milestone in efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s Civil Registration and Vital Statistics system.
Omonakpeme stated that the initiative aligns with the Federal Government’s digital transformation agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 16.9, which seeks to provide legal identity for all.
He appreciated the Federal Government, the leadership of the commission, UNICEF and other development partners for supporting the implementation of the initiative.
The state director also urged parents, guardians, health institutions, community leaders, religious organisations and the media to mobilise public support for the timely registration of all births and deaths.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reported that ICT personnel of the commission, led by Ehimoni Kolawole, conducted a live demonstration of the digital birth registration process using the VitalReg platform.
The demonstration showed that the registration process captures the biodata of both parents, while at least one parent must possess a valid National Identification Number (NIN) to complete the registration of a newborn.
Yola Electricity Distribution Company (YEDC) has alerted its customers to a fraudulent message circulating on social media, falsely claiming that electricity consumers can receive an additional 20 per cent bonus units when recharging their prepaid meters through unofficial channels.
In a statement issued by the company’s management on Monday, YEDC described the claim as false and urged customers to disregard the misleading information, stressing that it did not originate from the company.
According to the statement, YEDC does not offer bonus electricity units through individuals, agents, personal bank accounts, phone numbers, or social media contacts.
The company advised customers to purchase electricity tokens only through approved cashless payment platforms, including the YEDC Pay App, OPay, Interswitch, and other authorised vending channels, or to visit the nearest YEDC office for assistance.
YEDC also cautioned customers against sharing their meter details or personal information, or making payments to unauthorised persons claiming to represent the company.
The company further urged customers to rely exclusively on information disseminated through its official communication channels to avoid falling victim to fraud.
The management thanked customers for their continued cooperation and reaffirmed its commitment to serving them.
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