E-Financial
Gold – The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Weak economies are more vulnerable to uncertainty, political extremes and populism, post-World-War Germany and Russia proved this beyond a doubt. The Gold price tracks economic uncertainty, and by that token, it also tracks the outer reaches of the populist pendulum.
The more uncertainty there is over the economy, the more extreme are the pendulum’s swings to the left or right, and the dollar-denominated Gold price reflects both these phenomena.
In 1973, the then-US president Nixon took the country off the Gold standard, and ever since, traders have seen the asset as a hedge against uncertainty (the good), as a clear signal of economic trouble (the bad) and as a benchmark for populism and political instability (the ugly).
An economy that can’t sustain jobs or its financial system risks heading towards mass unrest. Economic instability creates circumstances that are easily exploited by demagogues and populists, examples include men like Hitler or Stalin.
Political leaders on either side of the political spectrum can gain immensely strong, even authoritarian positions by fear mongering and seeming to offer the only way out of financial or political insecurity.
The realisation that populism can lead to extremism gave birth to the European Union, which is based on the concept that mutual economic interests lead to stronger economies and peaceful cooperation. In 2017, the EU will be 60 years old, but what are the dangers ahead? Much has been made of the recent rise of populism in the US, UK and EU, but we must be careful in choosing our comparisons because circumstances are very different to the first half of the 20th Century when war left these countries utterly devastated.
In addition, today’s mature economies are structured very differently to those in the first 50 years of the 20th Century when they were built mainly on monarchical systems and the value of physical assets.
Back to the recent present, the US narrowly avoided a serious depression after the sub-prime crisis by pumping billions of dollars into the financial system in 2007/8. In 2009, the Gold price hit a record high of $1000 per ounce, reflecting the trading market’s safe-haven buying instincts. That was just the beginning.
By September 2011, the Gold price had hit a record high of $1920 per ounce, and another record was set for the US government debt ceiling.
The US has spent the last two administrations stabilising the economy, but the Federal Reserve is still cautious about raising interest rates. The main sources of the central bank’s reservations are global and domestic growth, which are still slower than expected.
These economic circumstances favoured the more colourfully-populist candidate in the recent US elections, and Donald Trump won the election on a platform focused on popular dissatisfaction and fear over job losses, pinning his campaign on immigration control and protectionist economic policies.
Pre-election, the Gold price rose, but those who are pinning their hopes on US populism pushing the Gold price even higher may be disappointed. Since the US elections and the end of uncertainty around them, Gold has fallen to below $1190 per ounce, indicating that investors are partial to Trump’s economic policies – at least for the time being.
Meanwhile, the EU and UK are going through a period of relatively slow growth and still recovering from their own recessions. The ECB and Bank of England are spending heavily and pumping money into national assets like sovereign and corporate bonds while keeping interest rates low.
The low growth rates in the last eight years have led to higher unemployment and more social unrest in the UK which Brexit campaigners directed at the EU, blaming it for the immigrants seen as taking British jobs.
True to form, the Gold price spiked in July 2016 after the Brexit vote triggered risk-aversion and uncertainty amid the increasingly populist and nationalist campaigning from the Brexit camp.
The UK is not alone in this trend; in the Spring of 2017, France faces the choice of a far-right candidate or a national front candidate during presidential elections. Gold could heat up during this period, especially since UK Prime Minister Theresa May said she will trigger Article 50 in March 2017.
The expectations are rising that there will be a ‘hard’ Brexit, meaning that the UK would be left out of the Single Market and go back to the days of bilateral tax and visa treaties with individual EU states, restricting migration and trade.
In addition to the Brexit fears, Gold was driven higher in 2016 during the Federal Reserve’s monthly announcements and continuing hesitation over raising US interest rates. Investors have a love-hate relationship with Gold and the Federal Reserve, when they’re disappointed in the Fed, they love Gold and buy it passionately. The reverse is also true, when traders fall back in love with the Fed, Gold is spurned in favour of USD-denominated assets.
Have we reached the point of nationalism, economic devastation and populism that led to dictatorships in Europe and dragged the world into more war? By no means. The economic outlook is still far more stable than it was post-World War II, and provided the US economy keeps growing there is more chance of other mature economies following suit.
The Gold price can indicate what level populism reaches before it tips over into extremism, before slow growth tips into recession. What it’s telling us now is that economically-speaking, we’re not out of the woods yet.
The good scenario is Gold reaching pre-subprime crisis levels below $1000 per ounce. The bad scenario is a rise over $1300 per ounce, as seen during the Brexit shock. The ugly – at least in terms of uncertainty and instability – is a return to $1920 and over.
E-Financial
AI-Powered Loan Recovery Pilot Rakes in N69m for VeendHQ

VeendHQ has said that its AI-powered credit platform, Vida AI, helped recover N69 million from a N172.5 million portfolio of loans that were more than 90 days overdue, in a pilot that highlights the growing role of technology in loan recovery and portfolio management.

The result comes at a time when lenders are under increasing pressure to improve recovery outcomes while managing the cost, reputational risk, and operational burden associated with overdue loans.
For many credit providers, the challenge is no longer only how quickly loans can be approved, but how effectively repayment can be monitored and delinquent loans can be recovered after disbursement.
According to VeendHQ, the pilot delivered a 40 percent recovery rate on the overdue loan portfolio.
The company said the result significantly outperformed traditional recovery benchmarks, where a five percent recovery rate on a similar loan book would amount to about N8.6 million.
VeendHQ said the pilot demonstrates how Vida AI can support lenders beyond credit assessment, extending into repayment monitoring, collections, and recovery.
“Credit access is only one side of lending. The bigger challenge for many lenders is what happens after disbursement,” said Olufemi Olanipekun, co-founder and CEO of VeendHQ.
“Vida AI helps lenders make smarter decisions across the credit lifecycle, from approval to repayment and recovery.”
VeendHQ, a Nigerian fintech company building digital credit infrastructure, developed Vida AI as an artificial intelligence-powered platform for lenders, merchants, and financial institutions.
The platform supports credit assessment, identity verification, repayment collections, and loan management workflows.
With the recovery pilot, the company is positioning Vida AI beyond loan origination, as a tool for lenders seeking to improve repayment performance and manage overdue portfolios more efficiently.
Delinquent loans remain a major cash-flow challenge for lenders.
Once loans exceed 60 to 90 days past due, recovery becomes more difficult, expensive, and unpredictable. Traditional approaches such as manual calls, recovery agents, and legal escalation often increase costs without significantly improving recovery rates.
VeendHQ said Vida AI’s recovery workflow enables lenders to upload overdue loan records, verify borrower information, assess repayment capacity, and trigger automated recovery actions.
This gives lenders better visibility after disbursement and allows recovery teams to prioritize overdue portfolios more effectively.
“If lenders cannot recover efficiently, they become more conservative with lending. That affects consumers, small businesses, and the wider credit market,” Olanipekun said.
“Better recovery infrastructure gives lenders more confidence to lend, manage risk, and keep credit flowing.”
The company said the recovery use case is especially relevant for banks, microfinance institutions, digital lenders, cooperatives, and merchants managing loans that are 60 to 180 days past due.
It added that it plans to deepen Vida AI’s recovery capabilities for credit providers seeking to improve recovery performance without relying solely on manual methods.
“As lending expands across Nigeria and Africa, recovery infrastructure is becoming as critical as origination,” Olanipekun said. “Tools that improve both will define which lenders can scale sustainably.”
The pilot, VeendHQ says, points to a broader shift in the credit market: approval speed alone is no longer enough. Increasingly, lenders will be defined by how effectively they monitor repayment, recover overdue loans, and manage portfolio risk over time.
E-Financial
CBN Orders Banks, Fintechs to Host Payment Data Locally

The Central Bank of Nigeria has directed banks, fintech firms, and other payment service providers to store payment transaction data generated within the country on local servers from January 1, 2027, as part of new measures to strengthen oversight of the fast-growing digital payments ecosystem.

The directive was contained in a circular issued by the Payments System Supervision Department of the CBN on Monday and addressed to deposit money banks, microfinance banks, mobile money operators, switching and processing companies, payment terminal service providers, payment solution service providers, super agents and other licensed operators in the payments industry.
The circular, signed by the Director of the Payments System Supervision Department, Rakiya Yusuf, also introduced new market structure rules, beneficial ownership disclosure requirements and systemic oversight measures for payment service operators.
According to the apex bank, the reforms became necessary following the rapid expansion of electronic payments and digital financial services across the country.
The CBN said it had observed “significant structural developments within the Nigerian Payments ecosystem, characterised by rapid growth in electronic payments, increasing adoption of digital financial services, and the emergence of operators with substantial market presence across key payment activities.”
It noted that while the growth had improved innovation, efficiency and financial inclusion, it had also created concerns around market concentration, operational dependence, ownership transparency and the storage of critical payments data.
To address these concerns, the regulator ordered all financial institutions facilitating payments in Nigeria to ensure that transaction data generated within the country are stored domestically.
The circular stated, “All Financial Institutions and participants facilitating payments within Nigeria shall ensure that payments transaction data generated within Nigeria are stored and managed in Nigeria in accordance with data protection laws and regulations applicable in Nigeria.”
It added that “all affected Financial Institutions shall fully comply with this requirement effective January 1, 2027.”
The move is expected to strengthen regulatory oversight, enhance data sovereignty and ensure that sensitive payment information remains within Nigeria’s jurisdiction.
It also aligns with broader efforts by regulators globally to localise critical financial data and reduce reliance on offshore infrastructure.
Beyond data localisation, the CBN ordered banks, payment service providers and other financial institutions with digital payment operations to disclose the ultimate beneficial ownership of significant shareholders.
According to the circular, institutions must maintain accurate and up-to-date records of their ultimate beneficial owners and make such information available to the apex bank upon request.
The regulator said the disclosure requirement must comply with existing anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing regulations.
The directive builds on previous CBN efforts to strengthen beneficial ownership transparency as part of wider measures to combat money laundering and illicit financial flows in the financial system.
The central bank also introduced fresh competition rules aimed at limiting excessive market dominance in the payments industry.
Under the new framework, any financial institution that controls more than 25 per cent of the card-issuing market in a rolling 12-month period will not be allowed to hold more than 15 per cent of the merchant-acquiring market during the same period.
Similarly, operators with more than 25 per cent market share in merchant acquiring activities will be restricted to a maximum of 15 per cent market share in card issuing activities.
Merchant acquiring refers to processing card payments on behalf of merchants, while card issuing involves providing payment cards to customers.
The CBN said all regulated entities would be required to submit monthly market share returns based on prescribed templates and timelines.
It further directed affected institutions to take the necessary measures to achieve full compliance with the market structure requirements by December 31, 2026.
The apex bank said the new measures were designed to “improve transparency through beneficial ownership disclosure, address concentration risk, promote a fair, competitive, and resilient payments ecosystem.”
According to the regulator, the reforms are also intended to “safeguard the integrity of the Nigerian payments system and ensure the localisation of payments transaction data within Nigeria.”
The CBN warned that it would closely monitor compliance and impose sanctions where necessary.
“The CBN shall monitor compliance with the provisions of this Circular and may, where necessary, impose supervisory sanctions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and guidelines,” the circular stated.
The latest directive comes amid a rapid expansion of Nigeria’s digital payments industry, with electronic transactions reaching record levels and regulators increasing oversight of banks, fintech firms and other payment operators to address operational, cybersecurity and systemic risks.
E-Financial
Analysts Warn of Growing “Crowded Trade” in Foreign Exchange Markets

Foreign exchange markets are entering a phase where how traders are positioned may matter as much as the economic fundamentals driving those positions, according to a new market analysis from JustMarkets.

JustMarkets
The brokerage’s latest commentary points to a build-up in trades tied to the US dollar and to carry strategies, bets that exploit interest rate differentials between currencies, as a growing source of risk heading into the coming weeks.
The dollar has been supported by elevated US interest rates and pushed-back expectations for rate cuts, conditions that have encouraged more traders to pile into similar carry positions. While the macro case behind these trades remains intact for now, JustMarkets cautions that when positioning becomes this lopsided, even sound trades can become vulnerable to sudden, sharp reversals.
A “crowded trade” isn’t inherently a red flag, the analysis notes, it can simply reflect a widely shared, fundamentally sound view. The danger emerges when too many participants are leaning the same way and conditions shift: traders rush to exit together, stop-loss orders cluster around similar price levels, and liquidity can evaporate just as prices move fastest. The combination, JustMarkets says, often produces a cascade effect that accelerates price moves in the opposite direction.
Notably, the analysis argues that reversals in crowded trades rarely require a major shock. Instead, minor developments, a softer-than-expected economic print, a subtle shift in central bank language, or fresh geopolitical headlines, can be enough to make traders question whether their positions still make sense. Once that doubt spreads, unwinding tends to happen in unison, amplifying both the speed and scale of the move.
Carry trades are singled out as particularly exposed in this environment. They tend to perform well during calmer periods but can unravel quickly once markets shift from “risk-on” to “risk-off,” triggering rapid liquidations and sharp corrections in carry positions.
JustMarkets argues that the current backdrop, marked by elevated geopolitical tension, persistent inflation, and lingering uncertainty over the path of monetary policy, leaves markets more exposed to positioning-driven swings than in previous cycles. Trader sentiment, the analysis suggests, is playing an outsized role alongside the usual response to economic data and headlines.
With crowded conditions raising the odds of fast, disorderly moves, the quality of trade execution becomes more consequential, the analysis notes, citing slippage, wider spreads, and order delays as factors that can compound losses during volatile swings.
On managing risk, JustMarkets’ analysts recommend that traders: Avoid overexposure to the dominant macro narrative of the moment, pay closer attention to positioning and sentiment indicators, maintain disciplined stop-loss orders ahead of potential downturn and pPrepare for higher volatility and faster price action than usual.
Markets become crowded periodically, and when they do, the risk of a sharp, sudden reversal rises with them. For now, JustMarkets’ broader message to traders is one of caution: with positioning levels elevated across USD and carry trades, vigilance on execution and risk management will likely matter more than usual in the weeks ahead.
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