E-Financial
FXTM: Trump Bulls in the White House – Red Flags on US Debt

Donald Trump’s administration is bullish right out of the gate. He’s chosen a cabinet made up of oil business tycoons like former Exxon chairman Rex Tillerson, so the agenda is clear; boost US big business and jobs. It’s less clear what Trump plans to do about the national debt, currently just shy of 20 trillion USD and 103% of GDP.
The debt is a red flag challenge that has the bulls in the White House lowering their horns for battle.
In the 10 years since the real estate sub-prime and financial crises, US debt more than doubled. The 700 billion USD it cost to bail out the crippled financial sector in 2008 was just the beginning.
A costly but necessary QE programme supported US Treasuries throughout the recession and recovery. QE combined with low interest rates helped to restore investment confidence.
The Federal Reserve’s cautious monetary policy nursed the economy through the worst period. But government debt overheated dramatically, going from nine trillion in 2007 to nearly 20 trillion in 2017.
It’s likely that the national debt will skyrocket under Trump’s presidency. Trump swears he will make America great again through aggressive fiscal policies.
He has pledged to accelerate growth and create jobs and wasted no time rallying his network of mega business owners.
During his pre-inauguration conference, Donald Trump said he was proud that Ford had decided to expand its factory in Michigan instead of building one in Mexico. Also, he is pressing General Motors to build its factories in the US instead of abroad.
The president-elect promised that Big Pharma would be pressured into bidding for government contracts. He believes this would save billions of dollars over time. In short, Trump wants to run the federal government like a business, and make it more efficient. Trump wants to be the ‘greatest job creator’ ever seen.
The president-elect’s rhetoric is all very well. But common sense says that money – especially debt – talks louder.
Even with savings on government contracts, at some point soon, taxes on business and households would have to be increased so the Treasury can service and even reduce US debt. This is unlikely to appeal to the Republican agenda of low taxes and less red tape, which is why Trump wants to raise import taxes instead.
The alternative to reducing the national debt is even less appealing. There is a risk of the US losing investor confidence in its bonds. This could lead to a huge rise in the cost of financing the massive debt, and the threat of default. The end result would be another prolonged recession.
This scenario is highly likely if Trump goes ahead with high tariffs on imports from China. There are increasing risks linked to alienating China and other emerging countries which play a big role in lending to the US.
As it stands, import tariffs slapped on top of a strong USD will have a cost of its own. The strong USD and higher interest rates will start pricing US products out of the export markets, meaning lower export revenues.
Higher import costs due to increased taxes will heat up inflation. This would make goods less affordable for consumers, and reduce importers’ overall revenues. Higher import taxes might bring in money for the US Treasury.
But at the same time, reduced demand for exports would mean lower tax revenues from domestic exporters.
Nonetheless, it can’t be denied that there is an upside to protectionism for domestic energy companies. If there are increased taxes on imported commodities like crude oil, it would increase local demand and revenues for US suppliers. In that case, US companies like Exxon would theoretically be able to boost the number of jobs on their payroll.
On the markets side, Trump’s rhetoric has a motivating effect, as Wall Street picks up the bullish tone. Everyone wants to go back to a strong economy and away from the pain of the recent recession and struggle to recover. But a return to pre-2007 economic conditions may still be a long way off, especially if Trump’s gamble on protectionism backfires.
The bottom line for investors is that the USD crosses, US share prices, and commodity prices still face a period of uncertainty. Gold is likely to remain an attractive hedge, and a great deal depends on GDP performance in the US. The outlook isn’t earth-shakingly optimistic.
The World Bank forecasts a modest US economic growth of 2.2 percent in 2017. Equally modest is its global growth forecast of 2.8 percent in 2017. This is accompanied by downside risks in emerging and mature economies. Clearly, local and global supply and demand are still not as bullish as Donald Trump’s rhetoric.
The bulls in the White House are ready to do the kind of mega business that made America great, that much is clear.
But calibrating an entire economy is a challenge on a much larger scale, especially one that’s only just back on the road to growth. Until Trump deals with the question of the national debt, investors will have to see it as a significant risk to their portfolios.
E-Financial
Standard Bank Targets $15.4b SME Growth in Nigeria, Others with Trade Expansion Drive

Standard Bank Group has identified Nigeria and four other markets as strategic growth hubs as it seeks to tap into $15.4 billion revenue opportunity driven by expanding small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rising intra-African trade.

The bank disclosed the plan through Bill Blackie, the Chief Executive Officer of its Business and Commercial Banking (Standard Bank Group) division, who outlined the lender’s growth strategy in an interview with Bloomberg.
Under the strategy, Standard Bank will deepen its presence in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania while consolidating its dominance in South Africa. The five markets account for about 85 per cent of the estimated revenue opportunity available to the group’s BCB operations.
The expansion forms part of the lender’s broader ambition to accelerate earnings growth through 2028, leveraging increasing demand for banking services among businesses across the continent.
According to Blackie, the BCB division has recorded robust growth over the past five years, supported by rising business activity and greater demand for financial services across Africa.
He said the division doubled both headline earnings and return on capital between 2020 and 2025, with return on capital increasing from 19 per cent to 38 per cent during the period.
Earnings from operations across the continent also expanded at an average annual rate of 30 per cent.
Building on this performance, the bank is targeting compound annual growth of between eight and nine per cent through 2028, although Blackie expressed confidence that growth could reach double-digit levels as the strategy gains traction.
A key pillar of Standard Bank’s growth strategy is expanding support for SMEs and mid-sized businesses, which account for most enterprises across Africa.
The bank is particularly positioning itself to benefit from opportunities created by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to accelerate economic integration and cross-border commerce across the continent.
According to the International Trade Centre, nearly half of Africa’s small businesses export to other African countries, compared with only 14 per cent of larger firms, underscoring the critical role of SMEs in driving regional commerce.
The lender is also leveraging its extensive African footprint and strategic partnership with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to attract businesses seeking access to international markets, particularly China.
E-Financial
NAICOM’s 18 Months Management Spill @ African Alliance Ends

The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has handed over the management of African Alliance Insurance Plc to a newly constituted board nominated by shareholders.

The move ends a regulatory intervention that rescued the troubled insurer from the brink of collapse.
The development marks a major milestone in the insurance industry’s efforts to strengthen policyholders’ protection and restore confidence in the sector, following months of intensive regulatory oversight aimed at stabilising the company.
NAICOM had stepped into the affairs of African Alliance Insurance in October 2024 after the insurer was hit by severe liquidity constraints, mounting annuity payment arrears, unresolved claims obligations, regulatory infractions and reputational challenges that threatened its survival and eroded public trust.
Speaking at the handover ceremony, Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Omosehin, said the intervention had achieved its primary objectives of restoring operational stability, settling outstanding liabilities and protecting the interests of shareholders and annuitants.
Omosehin said a successful turnaround demonstrates the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding the insurance industry while ensuring that policyholders do not bear the consequences of corporate distress.
He also highlighted the significance of the newly enacted Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, describing it as a game-changer for the sector.
The Commissioner observed that had the fund been in existence before the African Alliance’s crisis, it would have helped to cushion the impact on policyholders by facilitating the timely settlement of legitimate claims and annuity obligations.
He charged the new board to uphold high standards of corporate governance, transparency and regulatory compliance, while prioritising prompt claims settlement, sound solvency management and prudent business practices.
Industry stakeholders view the successful rehabilitation of African Alliance as a test case for regulatory intervention in Nigeria’s insurance sector, particularly at a time when operators are under pressure to strengthen their capital base, improve governance standards and rebuild public confidence.
During its tenure, the NAICOM appointed an interim board to restore liquidity through the recovery of trapped dividend funds and other inflows, settled a significant portion of annuity arrears and legacy claims, facilitated the transfer of the company’s annuity portfolio, completed forensic and actuarial reviews and addressed several regulatory and operational challenges.
E-Financial
How Fraudsters Stole N134Bn from Banks, Customers in 6 Years – CBN

Banks and their customers lost a combined N134.48 billion after criminals using illegal stole from financial institutions and its depositors between 2020 and 2025.

Attempted fraud across the banking and payments ecosystem amounted to N187.79 billion during the six-year period, while actual losses stood at N134.48 billion, according to data contained in Nigeria Payments System Vision 2028 document, issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The losses were recorded across multiple payment channels, including over-the-counter transactions, Automated Teller Machines, cheques, e-commerce platforms, Internet banking, mobile banking, Point of Sale terminals, web channels and other electronic payment platforms, highlighting the growing challenge of safeguarding Nigeria’s increasingly digital financial system.
An analysis of the data showed that fraud losses increased steadily from N11.61billionin 2020 to N12.77 billion in 2021 and N14.32 billion in 2022.
The figure rose further to N17.67 billion in 2023 before surging dramatically to N52.26 billion in 2024, the highest annual loss recorded within the six-year period.
The 2024 figure alone accounted for nearly 39 per cent of the total N134.48 billion lost between 2020 and 2025, showing the scale of the fraud challenge faced by banks, payment service providers and customers.
Similarly, attempted fraud climbed from N13.26bn in 2020 to N14.48 billion in 2021, N16.41 billion in 2022 and N19.72 billion in 2023 before jumping to N86.36 billion in 2024.
However, both attempted fraud and actual losses declined in 2025, falling to N37.57 billion and N25.85 billion, respectively.
The report attributed the sharp rise in fraud losses in 2024 largely to a major internal fraud case involving N30 billion.
According to the document, “Fraud amounts in Internet Banking, Mobile, and POS channels declined, yet overall losses rose by 196 per cent, primarily due to a major internal case involving N30bn. Web fraud incidents also increased by 169 per cent.”
The apex bank noted that the trend demonstrated how a single large-scale fraud incident could significantly distort industry-wide loss figures despite improvements in several digital payment channels.
Before the 2024 spike, the report showed that fraud patterns had evolved across different payment platforms.
In 2021, web-based fraud declined by 43 per cent, but losses still increased because of a 276 per cent rise in Point of Sale fraud incidents.
In 2022, fraud losses rose by 12 per cent, driven largely by major fraud incidents affecting corporate accounts, while ATM fraud surged by more than 2,000 per cent despite declines in mobile, POS and web channels.
The report further revealed that fraud losses in 2023 increased by 23 per cent, largely due to an explosion in e-commerce-related fraud cases. “Fraud losses rose by 23 per cent, largely due to a spike in e-Commerce incidents, which escalated by 1,961 per cent. Mobile, POS, and Web channels recorded moderate increases,” the CBN stated.
Despite the persistent fraud threat, the regulator said the industry recorded a notable improvement in 2025 following stricter controls and enhanced collaboration among stakeholders.
The document stated, “In 2025, electronic payment fraud declined by 51 per cent, demonstrating the success of stricter regulations, increased industry cooperation, enhanced prevention strategies, and improved monitoring.”
It added that the Central Bank of Nigeria, working alongside industry stakeholders, had strengthened oversight and introduced collaborative safeguards aimed at reducing vulnerabilities across payment platforms.
The findings come as Nigeria experiences an unprecedented shift towards electronic payments, with instant transfers, mobile banking, fintech applications and digital wallets becoming central to daily commercial activities.
In the foreword to the Payments System Vision 2028 document, Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said Nigeria’s payments ecosystem had evolved into one of the most dynamic and innovative in the world over the past decade, driven by real-time payments, digital adoption and fintech-led transformation.
Cardoso said the country had recorded significant growth in electronic payments and digital financial services under the previous Payments System Vision 2025 framework but stressed that the next phase would require stronger resilience and coordination as the system continued to expand.
The CBN acknowledged that while digitalisation has improved financial inclusion and lowered transaction costs, it has also created new risks that require stronger cybersecurity measures, consumer protection mechanisms and fraud-monitoring systems.
Under the new Payments System Vision 2028, the regulator plans to prioritise security, trust, innovation, interoperability, inclusion and collaboration as guiding principles for the next stage of payments system development.
The framework also seeks to strengthen regulatory oversight, improve cyber resilience and deploy emerging technologies to combat increasingly sophisticated fraud threats.
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