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Investors Scramble for Nigeria’s Bonds Despite Recession
Investors are lining up to buy dollar bonds Nigeria is expected to issue soon despite the country’s first recession in a quarter of a century, a currency crisis and budget shortfalls driven by low oil prices.
On the face of it, the $1 billion ($A1.3 billion) of bonds Nigeria hopes to sell by the end of March might seem unattractive, especially at a time sentiment towards African debt has soured after Mozambique missed a coupon payment.
But investors hungry for higher returns in a low interest rate environment reckon Nigeria’s benign debt levels, recovering foreign exchange reserves and a potential yield above seven per cent are reasons enough to look beyond the country’s economic woes.
“Nigeria’s starting position is one of low debt so if they price it attractively they will be able to get it done,” said Claudia Calich, who manages an emerging market bond fund at M&G Investments.
Nigeria’s Eurobond has been a long time coming. A year ago, Nigeria appeared to have shelved the idea in favour of a loan from China, but it embarked on an investor roadshow for the bond late last year in the United States and Britain.
Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and vies with Angola for the position of top oil producer, but that also means it is very exposed to fluctuations in the oil market.
The last time Nigeria issued dollar-denominated bonds in July 2013, oil was comfortably above $US100 a barrel but the slump in prices from $US115 in June 2014 to just $US28 a barrel by January 2016 has hurt the West African country’s economy.
Crude oil sales account for two-thirds of government revenue and about 90 per cent of foreign exchange earnings so the price slide, coupled with a resurgence in militant attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta, have had a severe impact.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s economy probably shrank 1.7 per cent in 2016, underperforming an average growth rate of 1.5 per cent across sub-Saharan Africa and way behind high-flying economies such as Ivory Coast.
Foreign investment has almost ground to a halt, hobbled by a slide in the naira currency – which trades on the black market at about 40 per cent below the official rate of 300 per dollar – and expectations the currency may have to be devalued again.
World Bank data shows net foreign direct investment tumbled to just over $US3 billion in 2015 from nearly $US9 billion in 2011 and the government needs to borrow $US3.5 billion internationally this year to balance a record 2017 budget.
International lenders such as the World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB) are also holding back on loans until Nigeria comes up with a plan to make its economy more resilient.
Yet, bond investors seem undeterred.
They argue that a Eurobond issued in dollars will shield them from currency risk and, compared to its African peers, Nigeria has a low ratio of public debt to annual economic output, implying that default is not a worry.
The ratio of Nigeria’s total public debt to gross domestic product is 22 per cent compared with 46 per cent in Gabon, 62 per cent in Ghana or 73 per cent in Angola, according to estimates by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
While businesses in Nigeria are having trouble getting hold of dollars, the country’s foreign exchange reserves are on the rise again. They hit an eight-month high of $US26.6 billion at the start of 2017 and have since climbed to $US28.9 billion.
“The government has access to hard currency even if they are restricting the access of other agents in the economy,” said Kieran Curtis, investment director at Standard Life Investments, who also plans to look at Nigeria’s upcoming bond issue.
Curtis reckons that Nigeria’s low debt ratios will allow it to borrow more cheaply than Ghana. Nigeria’s existing 2023 dollar bond yields about 6.7 per cent, or 170 basis points lower than Ghana’s 2023 bond.
Egypt, which has a credit rating of B-minus/B3/B from the main agencies, was marketing $US4 billion of Eurobonds in three tranches on Tuesday, offering a 10-year bond at 7.5 per cent. Nigeria is rated one to two notches higher at B/B1/B plus.
Nigeria’s last 10-year bond sold in July 2013 had a 6.375 per cent coupon but Exotix Partners head of fixed income research Stuart Culverhouse said a new issue would have to offer a yield of 7.0 per cent to 7.5 per cent.
“(Nigeria) might have to accept that people are charging more for them because of the situation. It could be a reality check,” he said.
If the country were to press ahead with reforms to alleviate pressure on the naira before issuing a bond, it could help lower the cost of borrowing, M&G’s Calich said.
“Then they could bring a new deal at tighter spreads. The big question is the currency regime.”
Although oil prices are now expected to stabilise above $US50 following OPEC’s decision to curb output, there are a few more clouds on the horizon.
The budget deficit for 2017 risks ballooning further as the government tries to boost the economy with record spending on roads and power.
Many also see the budget’s oil output projection of 2.2 million barrels per day as optimistic. Oil production, curbed by persistent attacks in the Niger Delta, was just 1.63 million barrels a day in the third quarter and was still below 1.8 million barrels per day in December.
Second, while emerging economies have been tapping the market in near-record numbers in January, sub-Saharan African borrowers have been absent and Mozambique’s coupon miss has not helped.
But Calich said there were no such fears for Nigeria.
“It will take a big shock to get into that kind of distress … we are far from that at this point.”
Xora Finance has announced it will no longer consider job applicants from Nigeria.
Xora Finance is a digital bank founded by Joren Lundgren, in February 2026 and allows users to deposit and earn interest on their XRP cryptocurrency.
Lundgren, founder, in an announcement on X (formerly Twitter), cited an ongoing pattern of misconduct, such as dishonesty and theft, from previous Nigerian hires as the reason for the decision.
This sudden blanket ban came just days after the company’s official career page was aggressively recruiting remote workers for marketing and content roles.
The announcement generated heavy backlash online, with many people upset that a blanket rule punishes honest job seekers.
Some lawyers have said that victims of Ponzi schemes have legal remedies, although recovering lost funds and prosecuting perpetrators remain major challenges.
A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new participants rather than from actual profits.
Operators lure victims by promising high returns with little to no risk.
The scheme inevitably collapses when the flow of new investors slows down.
Some lawyers who spoke to News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) separate interviews with on Sunday, said that victims could pursue civil actions to recover their money.
Mr Chibuikem Opara, a lawyer at Justification Chambers, Ikeja,said many Nigerians continued to fall victim to Ponzi schemes in spite of repeated warnings.
Opara said it was wrong to attribute participation in Ponzi schemes to a lack of investment opportunities, noting that promoters often exploit investors’ greed through promises of unrealistic returns.
“What you cannot take away is the fact that many Nigerians have fallen and continue to fall victim to these schemes every time,” he said.
According to him, victims may individually or collectively institute civil actions against the beneficiary company for breach of contract or refund arising from failure of consideration.
Opara said victims could also unite to seek an order from the Federal High Court to wind up the beneficiary company.
He, however, noted that such efforts might yield little benefit if perpetrators had already siphoned the funds and left behind an empty shell.
The lawyer said available remedies largely depended on the actions of relevant authorities, adding that recipient accounts could be frozen to facilitate fund recovery and support winding-up proceedings.
Opara said regulators and law enforcement agencies often became aware of Ponzi schemes only after substantial losses had occurred.
According to him, victims frequently failed to report suspicious schemes early enough to enable timely intervention.
He added that funds are sometimes moved outside the country before authorities become aware of the fraud.
Opara also cited inadequate information and the deceptive nature of the schemes as major obstacles to investigation and prosecution.
“Most times, everything about the schemes is made to appear elusive, just like the profits promised to victims,” he said.
Also speaking, Mr Vincent Aminu of A.F. Aminu and Co. advised that victims of investment scams should report such cases to appropriate law enforcement agencies on time.
Aminu said victims could petition the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) or file reports with the police.
He said that after investigation, prosecutors could bring charges against suspects under relevant fraud-related laws, including provisions of the Criminal Code and the Advance Fee Fraud and Other Fraud Related Offences Act.
Beyond criminal prosecution, Aminu said .victims could pursue civil actions to recover their money
According to him, such actions may be based on breach of contract, unjust enrichment, or fraudulent misrepresentation, depending on the circumstances.
He added that victims could petition the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which could investigate illegal operators, shut down unauthorised platforms, and freeze assets.
He identified the anonymity of online fraudsters as one of the biggest challenges confronting investigators.
According to him, many operators concealed their identities through fake digital profiles and technologies that made tracking them difficult.
Aminu also noted that victims who delayed taking legal action risked losing opportunities for redress.
He added that prolonged court proceedings often delayed justice for victims.
“Many fraud-related cases take years before the court reaches a verdict, thereby delaying justice for victims,” he said.
Also, Mr Chris Ayiyi of Ayiyi Chambers, Apapa, described Ponzi schemes as a gamble that benefited early participants at the expense of later investors.
Ayiyi said some early entrants received returns on their investments, thereby encouraging others to join the schemes.
He said the schemes eventually collapsed, leaving late investors to bear the losses
The lawyer called for a complete ban on Ponzi schemes or sustained public enlightenment campaigns against them.
He urged the National Assembly to enact laws that would strengthen regulation and provide greater protection for investors.
According to him, stronger legal safeguards are necessary in a country operating a capital-based economy.
PalmPay Group (“PalmPay”), a multinational fintech company providing digital financial services across high-growth emerging markets, is pleased to appoint Samuel Oluyemi as Chief Operating Officer (“COO”) of its Nigeria practice, effective immediately.
The appointment comes at a pivotal moment for PalmPay as it looks to reach more underserved communities and continuously strengthen the reliability and security of its services. It also comes as Nigeria’s broader financial services sector continues to modernize, bring millions more Nigerians into the formal financial system, and strengthen the cybersecurity and fraud-prevention standards that underpin public confidence in digital payments.
As COO of PalmPay Nigeria, Mr. Oluyemi will oversee PalmPay’s Nigerian operations — where the company provides a full suite of digital financial services to individuals and businesses — and communicate with regulators to ensure the company’s growth happens harmoniously with the country’s financial, digital, and social inclusion goals.
Mr. Oluyemi brings more than two decades of experience at the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (“NIBSS”). During his tenure as the Business Development Lead, he championed the development of key national payment services — including the Digital Validation of Nigerian International Passport (e-Passport Validation), Electronic Dividend Mandate Management System (“e-DMMS”), and the Electronic Pensions Contribution Collection System (“EPCCOS”) — and played a pivotal role in introducing and driving early adoption of NIBSS Instant Payment (“NIP”), Nigeria’s first online, real-time, inter-bank transfer system in 2011 and its subsequent extension to the Other Financial Institutions (“OFI”) segment of the Nigeria Payments System.
He holds an MSc in Monetary Economics from the University of Ibadan with extensive local and international professional training.
“Samuel joins PalmPay at an important stage in our journey to strengthen the foundations that will support our long-term goal of driving financial inclusion,” said Chika Nwosu, Managing Director of PalmPay Nigeria. “His extensive experience makes him well positioned to help us scale sustainably while maintaining the operational discipline, governance and customer-first culture that define PalmPay.”
“PalmPay has established itself as one of the most impactful fintech companies in emerging markets by making financial services more accessible and affordable for millions of people,” said Mr. Oluyemi.
“I am excited to join the company and look forward to working alongside an exceptional team to strengthen operational excellence and support PalmPay’s vision of building a leading digital financial services platform. Together, we will continue delivering secure, reliable, and customer-focused financial solutions while contributing to the continued evolution of Nigeria’s digital financial ecosystem.”
As Nigeria’s digital financial services sector continues to mature, this appointment reflects a broader commitment guiding PalmPay across all markets it serves: building financial services that are secure, reliable, and effective enough to earn a permanent place in people’s everyday lives.
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