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FXTM Analysis: Markets Behaving Calmly as UK Election Aftermath Begins

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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the financial markets following the UK general election result.

All major headlines and attention are still surrounding the United Kingdom following the uncertain outcome to the UK election at the end of last week.

 The British Pound appears to have stabilized and is trying to maintain its footing around 1.27, after suffering a decline just above 2% at one point following it becoming clear that the UK was heading for a hung parliament.

There is a viewpoint that the Pound should remain supported over the near-term despite the uncertainty, due to the likelihood that the forming of a coalition government would encourage Theresa May to cool it down when it came to her previous hardline approach towards the European Union and the imminent Brexit negotiations.

The possibility that Theresa May will be left with no choice but to adopt a diplomatic approach towards Brexit is what has been seen as the most supportive factor for the Pound over the near-term. It’s not something that I am buying into however, and I think this might be a short-lived consolidation around 1.27.

I personally still see downside risks for the Sterling and see the potential for the market to become encouraged towards selling in the likelihood that the UK is set to begin negotiations next week and looks very unprepared for such complex negotiations.

The whole reason for the UK election in the first place was so that Theresa May would have more powers to influence the Brexit process, but not only has this play backfired, the UK looks more unprepared than ever to go head-to-head with the EU as it currently stands. I personally remain bearish on the Sterling.

What was noticeable when European trading commenced on Monday was that the FTSE dipped lower, which some could attribute to the uncertainty in the aftermath of the UK election. It is also worth pointing however that the FTSE looked under pressure around the same time that the Pound was at that point consolidating a little higher, which could be the inverse Sterling/FTSE relationship that we have talked about in the past.

There has been a trend over the past year where increased Sterling purchasing sentiment can encourage selling in the FTSE and selling momentum in the Sterling can support the FTSE, which we saw once again at the end of the UK election. It certainly is a strange correlation, but it is thought to be supported by the mindset that when corporations on the FTSE exchange their earnings back into Sterling they are left with more currency.

While the attention around the United Kingdom is by all accounts going to remain centred around the political uncertainty, there is also key economic data to come out over the week ahead. The latest inflation reading, employment data and BoE interest rate decision are all scheduled to be announced in the next few days.

When it comes to the jobs data and inflation numbers, the major headline will be whether further indications are provided that price pressures are increasing at a faster pace than wage growth. This is seen as a crucial factor in the possibility that consumer spending might be pressured over the upcoming months.

By most accounts the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged as they have been for nearly a year, but it will be interesting to see if Governor Carney comments on the current political instability and what it means to the monetary policy outlook for the United Kingdom.

Time For Another US Interest Rate Rise?
Away from the United Kingdom and the ongoing political uncertainty that is dominating attention, the Federal Reserve is largely expected to raise US interest rates on Wednesday evening.

Most of the expected US interest rate rise has already been priced into the Dollar, but the US currency might find support in the run up to the Federal Reserve decision.

Will the probable US interest rate rise direct the Dollar over the longer-term? Not really, and as soon as the Fed most likely pulls the trigger on another rate rise on Wednesday, attention will circle towards when the central bank will next raise interest rates as it’s expected that another one or two will be announced before the end of the year.

Any hesitance from the Federal Reserve when it comes to providing clarity on its future monetary policy outlook and interest rate circle will likely weigh on the Dollar as investors want clarity.

What About Emerging Market Currencies?
The likelihood that the Federal Reserve will be raising US interest rates this coming week might put a pause to the recent rally we have witnessed in emerging market currencies, like the Malaysian Ringgit and Chinese Yuan.

Whether the emerging market currencies can later brush away the probable US interest rate hike this Wednesday will depend on the timing of the next interest rate rise from the United States, which by most accounts knowing the previous language from the Federal Reserve, will not include precise timing for the next rate increase and later support the emerging currencies. By most accounts the Dollar topped a long time ago, and this means those emerging currencies that were heavily pressured in the six months following US election day can continue to push on and attract buyers.

Update on WTI Oil
After a pressured couple of weeks following the OPEC meeting, WTI Oil has found support at $45 and is expected to attempt a recovery from here.There is still a risk that US inventories/shale production will offset the efforts from OPEC Non-members when it comes to trimming the oversupply in the markets, however Oil looks oversold at $45 to my eye until we can see clear signs that there is increased inventories from the United States.   


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E-Financial

Standard Bank Targets $15.4b SME Growth in Nigeria, Others with Trade Expansion Drive

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Standard Bank Group has identified Nigeria and four other markets as strategic growth hubs as it seeks to tap into $15.4 billion revenue opportunity driven by expanding small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rising intra-African trade.

The bank disclosed the plan through Bill Blackie, the Chief Executive Officer of its Business and Commercial Banking (Standard Bank Group) division, who outlined the lender’s growth strategy in an interview with Bloomberg.

Under the strategy, Standard Bank will deepen its presence in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania while consolidating its dominance in South Africa. The five markets account for about 85 per cent of the estimated revenue opportunity available to the group’s BCB operations.

The expansion forms part of the lender’s broader ambition to accelerate earnings growth through 2028, leveraging increasing demand for banking services among businesses across the continent.

According to Blackie, the BCB division has recorded robust growth over the past five years, supported by rising business activity and greater demand for financial services across Africa.

He said the division doubled both headline earnings and return on capital between 2020 and 2025, with return on capital increasing from 19 per cent to 38 per cent during the period.

Earnings from operations across the continent also expanded at an average annual rate of 30 per cent.

Building on this performance, the bank is targeting compound annual growth of between eight and nine per cent through 2028, although Blackie expressed confidence that growth could reach double-digit levels as the strategy gains traction.

A key pillar of Standard Bank’s growth strategy is expanding support for SMEs and mid-sized businesses, which account for most enterprises across Africa.

The bank is particularly positioning itself to benefit from opportunities created by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to accelerate economic integration and cross-border commerce across the continent.

According to the International Trade Centre, nearly half of Africa’s small businesses export to other African countries, compared with only 14 per cent of larger firms, underscoring the critical role of SMEs in driving regional commerce.

The lender is also leveraging its extensive African footprint and strategic partnership with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to attract businesses seeking access to international markets, particularly China.


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NAICOM’s 18 Months Management Spill @ African Alliance Ends

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has handed over the management of African Alliance Insurance Plc to a newly constituted board nominated by shareholders.

‎The move ends a regulatory intervention that rescued the troubled insurer from the brink of collapse.

The development marks a major milestone in the insurance industry’s efforts to strengthen policyholders’ protection and restore confidence in the sector, following months of intensive regulatory oversight aimed at stabilising the company.

NAICOM had stepped into the affairs of African Alliance Insurance in October 2024 after the insurer was hit by severe liquidity constraints, mounting annuity payment arrears, unresolved claims obligations, regulatory infractions and reputational challenges that threatened its survival and eroded public trust.

‎Speaking at the handover ceremony, Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Omosehin, said the intervention had achieved its primary objectives of restoring operational stability, settling outstanding liabilities and protecting the interests of shareholders and annuitants.

Omosehin said a successful turnaround demonstrates the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding the insurance industry while ensuring that policyholders do not bear the consequences of corporate distress.

He also highlighted the significance of the newly enacted Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, describing it as a game-changer for the sector.

The Commissioner observed that had the fund been in existence before the African Alliance’s crisis, it would have helped to cushion the impact on policyholders by facilitating the timely settlement of legitimate claims and annuity obligations.

He charged the new board to uphold high standards of corporate governance, transparency and regulatory compliance, while prioritising prompt claims settlement, sound solvency management and prudent business practices.

Industry stakeholders view the successful rehabilitation of African Alliance as a test case for regulatory intervention in Nigeria’s insurance sector, particularly at a time when operators are under pressure to strengthen their capital base, improve governance standards and rebuild public confidence.

During its tenure, the NAICOM appointed an interim board to restore liquidity through the recovery of trapped dividend funds and other inflows, settled a significant portion of annuity arrears and legacy claims, facilitated the transfer of the company’s annuity portfolio, completed forensic and actuarial reviews and addressed several regulatory and operational challenges. ‎


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How Fraudsters Stole N134Bn from Banks, Customers in 6 Years – CBN

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Banks and their customers lost a combined N134.48 billion after criminals using illegal stole from financial institutions and its depositors  between 2020 and 2025.

How Fraudsters Stole N134Bn from Banks, Customers in 6 Years – CBN

Attempted fraud across the banking and payments ecosystem amounted to N187.79 billion during the six-year period, while actual losses stood at N134.48 billion, according to data contained in Nigeria Payments System Vision 2028 document, issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The losses were recorded across multiple payment channels, including over-the-counter transactions, Automated Teller Machines, cheques, e-commerce platforms, Internet banking, mobile banking, Point of Sale terminals, web channels and other electronic payment platforms, highlighting the growing challenge of safeguarding Nigeria’s increasingly digital financial system.

An analysis of the data showed that fraud losses increased steadily from N11.61billionin 2020 to N12.77 billion in 2021 and N14.32 billion in 2022.

The figure rose further to N17.67 billion in 2023 before surging dramatically to N52.26 billion in 2024, the highest annual loss recorded within the six-year period.

The 2024 figure alone accounted for nearly 39 per cent of the total N134.48 billion lost between 2020 and 2025, showing the scale of the fraud challenge faced by banks, payment service providers and customers.

Similarly, attempted fraud climbed from N13.26bn in 2020 to N14.48 billion in 2021, N16.41 billion in 2022 and N19.72 billion in 2023 before jumping to N86.36 billion in 2024.

However, both attempted fraud and actual losses declined in 2025, falling to N37.57 billion and N25.85 billion, respectively.

The report attributed the sharp rise in fraud losses in 2024 largely to a major internal fraud case involving N30 billion.

According to the document, “Fraud amounts in Internet Banking, Mobile, and POS channels declined, yet overall losses rose by 196 per cent, primarily due to a major internal case involving N30bn. Web fraud incidents also increased by 169 per cent.”

The apex bank noted that the trend demonstrated how a single large-scale fraud incident could significantly distort industry-wide loss figures despite improvements in several digital payment channels.

Before the 2024 spike, the report showed that fraud patterns had evolved across different payment platforms.

In 2021, web-based fraud declined by 43 per cent, but losses still increased because of a 276 per cent rise in Point of Sale fraud incidents.

In 2022, fraud losses rose by 12 per cent, driven largely by major fraud incidents affecting corporate accounts, while ATM fraud surged by more than 2,000 per cent despite declines in mobile, POS and web channels.

The report further revealed that fraud losses in 2023 increased by 23 per cent, largely due to an explosion in e-commerce-related fraud cases. “Fraud losses rose by 23 per cent, largely due to a spike in e-Commerce incidents, which escalated by 1,961 per cent. Mobile, POS, and Web channels recorded moderate increases,” the CBN stated.

Despite the persistent fraud threat, the regulator said the industry recorded a notable improvement in 2025 following stricter controls and enhanced collaboration among stakeholders.

The document stated, “In 2025, electronic payment fraud declined by 51 per cent, demonstrating the success of stricter regulations, increased industry cooperation, enhanced prevention strategies, and improved monitoring.”

It added that the Central Bank of Nigeria, working alongside industry stakeholders, had strengthened oversight and introduced collaborative safeguards aimed at reducing vulnerabilities across payment platforms.

The findings come as Nigeria experiences an unprecedented shift towards electronic payments, with instant transfers, mobile banking, fintech applications and digital wallets becoming central to daily commercial activities.

In the foreword to the Payments System Vision 2028 document, Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said Nigeria’s payments ecosystem had evolved into one of the most dynamic and innovative in the world over the past decade, driven by real-time payments, digital adoption and fintech-led transformation.

Cardoso said the country had recorded significant growth in electronic payments and digital financial services under the previous Payments System Vision 2025 framework but stressed that the next phase would require stronger resilience and coordination as the system continued to expand.

The CBN acknowledged that while digitalisation has improved financial inclusion and lowered transaction costs, it has also created new risks that require stronger cybersecurity measures, consumer protection mechanisms and fraud-monitoring systems.

Under the new Payments System Vision 2028, the regulator plans to prioritise security, trust, innovation, interoperability, inclusion and collaboration as guiding principles for the next stage of payments system development.

The framework also seeks to strengthen regulatory oversight, improve cyber resilience and deploy emerging technologies to combat increasingly sophisticated fraud threats.

 

 


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