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FXTM Analysis: Markets Behaving Calmly as UK Election Aftermath Begins

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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the financial markets following the UK general election result.

All major headlines and attention are still surrounding the United Kingdom following the uncertain outcome to the UK election at the end of last week.

 The British Pound appears to have stabilized and is trying to maintain its footing around 1.27, after suffering a decline just above 2% at one point following it becoming clear that the UK was heading for a hung parliament.

There is a viewpoint that the Pound should remain supported over the near-term despite the uncertainty, due to the likelihood that the forming of a coalition government would encourage Theresa May to cool it down when it came to her previous hardline approach towards the European Union and the imminent Brexit negotiations.

The possibility that Theresa May will be left with no choice but to adopt a diplomatic approach towards Brexit is what has been seen as the most supportive factor for the Pound over the near-term. It’s not something that I am buying into however, and I think this might be a short-lived consolidation around 1.27.

I personally still see downside risks for the Sterling and see the potential for the market to become encouraged towards selling in the likelihood that the UK is set to begin negotiations next week and looks very unprepared for such complex negotiations.

The whole reason for the UK election in the first place was so that Theresa May would have more powers to influence the Brexit process, but not only has this play backfired, the UK looks more unprepared than ever to go head-to-head with the EU as it currently stands. I personally remain bearish on the Sterling.

What was noticeable when European trading commenced on Monday was that the FTSE dipped lower, which some could attribute to the uncertainty in the aftermath of the UK election. It is also worth pointing however that the FTSE looked under pressure around the same time that the Pound was at that point consolidating a little higher, which could be the inverse Sterling/FTSE relationship that we have talked about in the past.

There has been a trend over the past year where increased Sterling purchasing sentiment can encourage selling in the FTSE and selling momentum in the Sterling can support the FTSE, which we saw once again at the end of the UK election. It certainly is a strange correlation, but it is thought to be supported by the mindset that when corporations on the FTSE exchange their earnings back into Sterling they are left with more currency.

While the attention around the United Kingdom is by all accounts going to remain centred around the political uncertainty, there is also key economic data to come out over the week ahead. The latest inflation reading, employment data and BoE interest rate decision are all scheduled to be announced in the next few days.

When it comes to the jobs data and inflation numbers, the major headline will be whether further indications are provided that price pressures are increasing at a faster pace than wage growth. This is seen as a crucial factor in the possibility that consumer spending might be pressured over the upcoming months.

By most accounts the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged as they have been for nearly a year, but it will be interesting to see if Governor Carney comments on the current political instability and what it means to the monetary policy outlook for the United Kingdom.

Time For Another US Interest Rate Rise?
Away from the United Kingdom and the ongoing political uncertainty that is dominating attention, the Federal Reserve is largely expected to raise US interest rates on Wednesday evening.

Most of the expected US interest rate rise has already been priced into the Dollar, but the US currency might find support in the run up to the Federal Reserve decision.

Will the probable US interest rate rise direct the Dollar over the longer-term? Not really, and as soon as the Fed most likely pulls the trigger on another rate rise on Wednesday, attention will circle towards when the central bank will next raise interest rates as it’s expected that another one or two will be announced before the end of the year.

Any hesitance from the Federal Reserve when it comes to providing clarity on its future monetary policy outlook and interest rate circle will likely weigh on the Dollar as investors want clarity.

What About Emerging Market Currencies?
The likelihood that the Federal Reserve will be raising US interest rates this coming week might put a pause to the recent rally we have witnessed in emerging market currencies, like the Malaysian Ringgit and Chinese Yuan.

Whether the emerging market currencies can later brush away the probable US interest rate hike this Wednesday will depend on the timing of the next interest rate rise from the United States, which by most accounts knowing the previous language from the Federal Reserve, will not include precise timing for the next rate increase and later support the emerging currencies. By most accounts the Dollar topped a long time ago, and this means those emerging currencies that were heavily pressured in the six months following US election day can continue to push on and attract buyers.

Update on WTI Oil
After a pressured couple of weeks following the OPEC meeting, WTI Oil has found support at $45 and is expected to attempt a recovery from here.There is still a risk that US inventories/shale production will offset the efforts from OPEC Non-members when it comes to trimming the oversupply in the markets, however Oil looks oversold at $45 to my eye until we can see clear signs that there is increased inventories from the United States.   


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E-Financial

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

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Nigerians have more trust in Bitcoin-based systems than in traditional alternatives such as banks and government, a new report by Elastos, an open-source blockchain website, has stated.

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

According to its inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust), emerging markets are driving the adoption of Bitcoin, with Nigeria and the UAE leading the charge.

The report revealed that 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil had more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives like banks or national governments, compared to just 16 per cent in Germany and 21 per cent in the UK.

The survey also revealed that 20 per cent of Nigerian consumers use Bitcoin to conduct transactions at least once a day, while 67 per cent would have more trust in Bitcoin to protect their life savings than traditional services like banks, local governments, and cash.

According to the platform, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, the UAE, the UK, and the US.

It stated that the interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company, between March 30 and April 4, 2024.

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin compared to alternatives,” it indicated.

According to the report, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent of Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives, such as banks or national governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Hargreaves,  Elastos’ global head, Business Development & ESG, described the BIT Index’s inaugural findings as indicative of the role the ‘global south’ was playing in the adoption of decentralised currencies such as Bitcoin.

“The BIT Index offers a fascinating and sobering insight into the industry. The fact that over two-thirds of Nigerian consumers and a third of their counterparts from the UAE and Brazil would feel more confident entrusting their life savings to Bitcoin rather than traditional financial instruments speaks volumes about the protagonism these regions are already playing.

“In many instances, the driving factor is the absence of viable, accessible alternatives to, for instance, conduct cross-border transactions or mitigate the impact of inflation,” he said.

According to Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency research firm, Nigeria’s crypto transaction volume grew year-over-year to $56.7bn in 2023.

It stated that the country’s crypto economy continued to grow despite market turmoil in the space.

On the contrary, the government has been taking strong measures to restrict and clamp down on cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms operating in the country.

 

 


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CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has awarded the country’s second Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) license to Unified Payments, Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, following a rigorous and transparent process,

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

The move is targeted at enforcing existing requirement that all transactions from point-of-sale channels in Nigeria must go through a licensed Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA).

The CBN is enforcing the laws to clamp down on financial crimes and other market misconducts and it aligns with the CBN’s objectives to fully track all electronic transactions in Nigeria, given the propensity of using such transactions to fund insecurity, violent crimes, banditry, kidnapping as well as other vices.

According to one analyst, “By awarding a second PTSA license, the apex bank has proactively responded to industry operators who had expressed serious concerns about channelling all transactions through a single aggregator, the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System PLC (NIBBS), as has been the case for some years.

“With the new policy direction, payments service providers would henceforth route all transactions through either of the two licensed Companies.”

Other financial analysts and industry players have commended the Central Bank, affirming that “the move can be a massive step in the right direction. They also commended the open, transparent, and inclusive manner via which the selection process was managed, and the license awarded.

“The selection process, which lasted for months, began with an invitation for qualified organisations within the payment industry to submit an Expression of Interest document, alongside other requisite documentation and additional capital requirement of N1 billion.”

 

The new management of CBN decided not to give the license out without going through an open process – and for the first time in licensing a payment service provider – the apex bank went through a public bid process outlined in its publication of Friday, January 5, 2024, in different national newspapers. At the end of the process, Unified Payments emerged as the most preferred service provider.

Unified Payment Services Limited, also called Unified Payments or UP, is a shared service provider within Nigeria’s financial technology sector owned by a consortium of Nigerian banks. For over 26 years, the firm has provided payment technology to banks and other industry operators. The first and only non-bank entity that is a principal member and licensed acquirer of all of American Express, Mastercard, Visa, UnionPay and Payattitude. Unified Payments facilitates both local and international transactions.

Formerly known as ValuCard Nigeria Plc, Unified Payments led the way to introduce POS payments in Nigeria under its card scheme known as ValuCard which is the first payment card to be issued in Nigeria. The company later transformed into a scheme-neutral and option-neutral service provider enabling transactions under different schemes.

The company has continued to provide leading payment technologies and services, enabling different operators to leverage its capabilities and licenses, enabling prompt and seamless transactions.

Among the shareholders of Unified Payments are First Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank and Fidelity Bank. Other shareholders are Citibank Nigeria Limited, Ecobank of Nigeria Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Ltd, Polaris Bank Ltd, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and Wema Bank Plc.


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CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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