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Opinion: Is Nigeria poised for an Economic Rebound?

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It has certainly been a lively year for the Nigerian economy as it continues to diversify away from oil reliance while juggling with a currency crisis and Dollar shortages created by low oil prices.

Although the nation still remains exposed to external risks, there has been some optimism over the economic landscape stabilizing, with the improving macro fundamentals fueling speculations of an economic rebound by the end of 2017.

Early signs of recovery can already be seen across Gross Domestic Growth, falling inflation and foreign exchange rate stability.

Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who previously warned of a potential economic collapse back in March, has turned positive and projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow at a faster pace than South Africa’s in 2018.

The current speed of Nigeria’s recovery can be described as slow and steady, with the macro-fundamentals gradually stabilizing. Inflation has cooled for the fifth consecutive month in June at 16.1% illustrating further signs of price stability while manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities have both moved in a positive trajectory.

The Naira continues to display resilience against the US Dollar this year, with prices currently trading around 363 on the black market exchange. Although the repeated intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria has heavily attributed to the Naira’s recovery and stability, confidence over Nigeria’s economic recovery continues to play a leading role.

While the local currency may experience further stability in the coming months as the Central Bank of Nigeria intervenes, the multiple exchanges have left the foreign exchanges divided and continue to pose a risk to investment.

Rather than using the foreign exchange reserves to support the Naira, the CBN should work towards cleaning up the multiple exchanges, while allowing the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the Naira’s true equilibrium value.

Although I remain optimistic over Nigeria resurging from an economic meltdown and eventually breaking away from its dependence on oil as an engine for growth, there are still external risks which could present headwinds on the road to recovery.

The greatest threat to Nigeria’s current recovery in the medium to longer term, is depressed oil prices. Falling oil has the ability to directly impact the nation’s government revenues, external reserves, and stability of the nation’s foreign exchange market.

Another risk in the pipeline that could pressure Nigeria’s recovery is OPEC’s recent decision to cap the nation’s oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day, especially when the budget proposal is based on 2.2 million barrels per day at $44.50 per barrel. It should be kept in mind that restricting production not only poses a threat to the budget but also is seen as a disincentive for investment.

Investors should pay close attention to higher US interest rates which have the ability to boost the US Dollar ultimately pressuring emerging markets, with Nigeria fitting into the category. While the threat of capital outflows from a strengthening US Dollar may expose the Nigerian economy to downside shocks, it should also be kept in mind that a portion of the government revenues is recouped from oil which is priced in Dollar.

In the longer term, an appreciating Dollar from higher US rates will not only diminish the value of the government’s working revenue, but also enforce pressure on the nation’s black market exchange.

The Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to remain in the spotlight in the third quarter of 2017 as investors wait to see whether interest rates will be hiked or trimmed. Nigeria’s ongoing mission to diversify from oil reliance, as well as a sharp drop in oil which triggered a currency crisis, have encouraged the CBN to maintain its key interest rates at 14% in July. While the central bank is likely to remain on standby in the short term as Nigeria nurses its wounds, a rate cut could be on the cards in the medium to longer term if inflation continues to follow a negative trajectory and other forms of hard economic data improve.

Focusing on the fiscal side, this still remains a gray are with the nation’s long-running infrastructure problems compounding to its woes. With the overall projected fiscal deficit tagged at N2.36 trillion one can only hope that the approved budget offers a helping hand to the nation.

Nigeria is in urgent need for robust infrastructure as major roads are in poor condition; the power sector remains a cause for concern while health and education need to be revamped. Rectifying these issues has the ability to not only create jobs but also support economic growth and boost investor confidence.

As we head deeper into the third quarter of 2017, market players may closely observe hard domestic data at home to gauge the nation’s health and verify if an economic recovery really is on the cards for 2017. Nigeria’s mission to diversify away from oil reliance while recovering from an economic deceleration remains an ongoing quest and it will be interesting to see how far the nation has progressed by year end.


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E-Financial

Agama,  New SEC Boss Goes Tough on Illegal Trading

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has said that it will go all out to act decisively to uphold the integrity of the capital market and protect the interests of all investors.

Agama,  New SEC Boss Goes Tough on Illegal Trading

This is in a bid to rid the capital market space of illegal trading activities.

This was stated by Dr Emomotimi Agama, acting director general of the SEC, during a virtual meeting with the Blockchain Industry Coordinating Committee of Nigeria (BICCoN), the umbrella body of all major blockchain and cryptocurrency Associations in Nigeria.

Agama stated that the SEC Nigeria will not hesitate to utilize all the powers within its mandate to handle issues that are negative and pose a threat to national interest saying that the Commission has come as a partner to seek collaboration in making sure that the capital market community is respected globally for decency and fair play.

The SEC boss said the recent concerns regarding crypto P2P traders and their perceived impact on the exchange rate of the Naira has underscored the need for collective action and dialogue within the financial market ecosystem.

He said “There are basic practices as enshrined in the Investments and Securities Act 2007 and we expect that everyone will abide by those rules. Some may say no rules to play by, but do not forget that we have the Investments and Securities Act 2007 that some actions by participants today may be violating, hence the law is the law irrespective of the technology used.

 

“However, for specific Digital Asset regulatory regime that many have been calling for, we want to assure you that we are working tirelessly to establish an accommodating regulatory guideline for digital assets. The SEC as your regulator is desirous to work with you by providing a level of assurance that is needed by all that are operating within the rules of the market”.

The DG stated that the proposed regulatory guidelines which are currently being fine-tuned with suggestions by various stakeholders, will encompass various activities within the cryptocurrency ecosystem ranging from Wallet providers, digital asset custodians and fund managers, Cryptocurrency Crowdfunding, Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), Security Token Offerings (STOs), Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs), Cryptocurrency Exchange platform providers, Virtual Asset brokerage services etc., ensuring that every Nigerian playing within the industry with the potential to contribute to economic progress is included, supported and properly regulated.

“I am poised for an innovative digital asset regulatory regime that will sustain Nigeria as Africa’s Digital Asset Powerhouse with diverse solutions like Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) that will drive wealth and catalyse our capital market. We must explore innovative solutions to this problem and strike the right balance between encouraging innovation and safeguarding our national economic interests. This we will do in afriendly and firm manner, to enable us to achieve the desired result”.

“We have a great market ahead of us and we have the talents and the people to make the market great.  Mr President is concerned about the teeming youths involved in this space and would encourage them to do the right thing and develop an ecosystem that we all will be proud of. It becomes necessary that we do what is right. Manipulations and all forms of activities that undermine our national interest would not be acceptable. It is therefore very important that we know that the SEC by Section 13 of the ISA speaks to the regulation of all capital market activities.”

Agama expressed his gratitude to the leadership of the Blockchain Industry Coordinating Committee of Nigeria (Biccon) the umbrella body of all major blockchain and cryptocurrency Associations in Nigeria, and assured them of the commission’s readiness to work closely with all stakeholders in the cryptocurrency ecosystem to create a better country for all of us.

“With our deep understanding of this industry and the cryptocurrency sub-sector, we recognize the importance of collaboration and cooperation in addressing the challenges we face; hence your insights and suggestions are invaluable as we seek to navigate these complexities together. We need your support as much as you need ours.

“On that note, I want to emphasize that we are working on different fronts to sustain decent practices within our market, however, we are here to meet ourselves to know those playing within the sector decently and are open to hearing your suggestions on how we can effectively manage all obscure cryptocurrency trading activities within our jurisdiction p2p inclusive irrespective of the challenge we all know that p2p trading posses.

We must explore innovative solutions to this problem and strike the right balance between encouraging innovation and safeguarding our national economic interests. This we will do in a friendly and firm manner, to enable us to achieve the desired result.

Agama stated that one of the things that need to be done is delisting the naira from the P2P space to avoid the level of manipulation that is currently happening enjoining participants in the crypto space to be patriotic enough to name and shame those that are involved in disrupting the markets negatively.

“I want to seek your co-operation in dealing with this as we roll out in the coming days the regulations that would take control of these areas. We want to ensure that this management will ensure that people or institutions that require registration with the SEC are quickly licenced. We assure you that we will give guidance when necessary and do well to streamline the processes to make it less difficult.

“We ask that those involved in sharp practices that undermine national interest should cease. It is in our interest as a people to protect what belongs to us. We encourage you to reach out to us by naming and shaming the bad actors. Together, I am confident that we can weed out bad actors and harness the immense potential of this progressive technology for the benefit of all Nigerians in tandem with this government’s renewed hope agenda” he added.

In his remarks, Dr Babatunde Oghenobruche Obrimah, chairman of the Fintech Association of Nigeria  commended the director general for his bold steps and the relationship with the ecosystem and pledged their commitment to work with the DG  and granted him all the support that will help him succeed in sanitizing the virtual ecosystem.

On their part, BICCoN requested the setting up of a working group to tackle the various challenges facing the crypto space in a bid to move the market forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 


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CBN Invites Bidders to Upgrade ICT Facilities

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is planning to upgrade its information and communication technology (ICT) facilities at the Dealing Room in Abuja.

CBN Invites Bidders to Upgrade ICT Facilities

This announcement was made through a statement titled “Request for Proposal for the Upgrade of the ICT Facilities at the Central Bank of Nigeria Dealing Room, Abuja,” posted on its website on Friday.

A dealing room is a place where shares, currencies, or commodities are bought and sold.

The Dealing Room plays a critical role in managing the nation’s foreign exchange and government securities, this upgrade is crucial for the stability and security of the financial system.

Part of its statement read, “To enable both departments to carry out their responsibilities efficiently and effectively, the bank established a world-class dealing room at the headquarters and equipped it with ICT facilities in 2015. The ICT facilities have, however, attained end-of-life or end-of-support status and have resulted in suboptimal performance.’’

It stated that interested contractors must submit bids by June 14, 2024. Requirements include evidence of similar project experience and a minimum turnover of N500m in the last three years.

According to CBN, proposals from a single vendor or multiple vendors working together as a team will both be considered.

The Central Bank stated that it reserves the right to reject bids that do not meet requirements and to terminate the procurement process at any time, without incurring any liabilities.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is searching for certified vendors with verifiable capacity and experience in implementing the required solution, including experience in the public sector.

 


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CBN Orders Banks to Charge 0.5 Percent Cybersecurity Levy

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has ordered banks operating in the country to start charging a cybersecurity levy on transactions.

A circular from the apex bank on Monday disclosed that the implementation of the levy would start two weeks from yesterday.

The circular was directed to all commercial, merchant, non-interest and payment service banks, among others.

The circular revealed that it was a follow-up on an earlier letter dated June 25, 2018 (Ref: BPS/DIR/GEN/CIR/05/008) and October 5, 2018 (Ref: BSD/DIR/GEN/LAB/11/023), respectively, on compliance with the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, Etc.) Act 2015.

The recent public engagements by the Office of the National Security Adviser on the above subject, also refers.

Following the enactment of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (amendment) Act 2024 and under the provision of Section 44 (2)(a) of the Act, a levy of 0.5 per cent (0.005) equivalent to a half per cent of all electronic transactions value by the business specified in the Second Schedule of the Act, is to be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund which shall be administered by the Office of the National Security Adviser.

The CBN said that all banks, other financial institutions and payment service providers are now required to implement the directive, saying, “The levy shall be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination, then deducted and remitted by the financial institution. The deducted amount shall be reflected in the customer’s account with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’.

“Deductions shall commence within two weeks from the date of this circular for all financial institutions and the monthly remittance of the levies collected in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month.”

Exempted from the levy include loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.

Also exempted from the levy were inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, ⁠Letters of Credits, ⁠Banks’ recapitalisation-related funding only bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments, among others.

The CBN, in recent times, has been making an effort to sanitise the financial sector. It recently issued a directive which barred fintechs from onboarding new customers.

The fintechs have in turn warned their customers against engaging in crypto transactions on their platforms.

This also comes barely a week after the Federal Government had directed Deposit Money Banks to immediately begin the deduction of 0.375 per cent stamp duty charge on all mortgaged-backed loans and bonds.


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