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Smartphone Volumes Will Return to Growth in 2019 and Beyond- IDC

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The worldwide smartphone market is expected to contract again in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 and beyond, after declining 0.3% in 2017

According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are forecast to drop 0.2% in 2018 to 1.462 billion units, which is down from 1.465 billion in 2017 and 1.469 billion in 2016.

Looking further out, IDC expects the market is to grow roughly 3% annually from 2019 onwards with worldwide shipment volume reaching 1.654 billion in 2022 and a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%.

The biggest driver of the 2017 downturn was China, which saw its smartphone market decline 4.9% year over year.

Tough times are expected to continue in 2018 as IDC forecasts consumption in China to decline another 7.1% before flattening out in 2019.

The biggest upside in Asia/Pacific continues to be India with volumes expected to grow 14% and 16% in 2018 and 2019.

Chinese OEMs will continue their strategy of selling large volumes of low-end devices by shifting their focus from China to India.

So far most have been able to get around the recently introduced India import tariffs by doing final device assembly at local India manufacturing plants.

As for components, almost everything is still being sourced from China.

Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. said “With 2017 now behind us a lot of interesting market dynamics are unfolding,”

“Even though it declined 5% in 2017, China remains the focal point for many given that it consumes roughly 30% of the world’s smartphones.

“But plenty of pockets of growth can be found beyond China. India is now grabbing headlines and the market itself is going through some rapid transformation.

“Local India manufacturing continues to ramp up, despite still having a heavy dependence on China for components.

“The boom in India is likely to continue in the years to come, but the move toward building up local production has certainly caught the eye of many in the industry.”

Outside of Asia/Pacific, the biggest regions for growth will be the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

All three regions have relatively low penetration rates and plenty of upsides.

Economic challenges have been the main inhibitor over the past two years, but IDC expects consumer spending to rise throughout the forecast and smartphones to be a big benefactor.

The other catalyst to watch will be the introduction of 5G smartphones.

IDC predicts the first commercially ready 5G smartphones will appear in the second half of 2019 with a ramp up across most regions happening in 2020.

IDC projects 5G smartphone volumes to account for roughly 7% of all smartphones in 2020 or 212 million in total.

The share of 5G devices should grow to 18% of total volumes by 2022.

Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said “Although overall smartphone shipments will decline slightly in 2018, the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone will reach $345, up 10.3% from the $313 ASP in 2017.

“This year will continue to focus on the ultra-high-end segment of the market as we expect a surge of premium flagship devices to launch in developed markets in 2018.

“Devices featuring large AMOLED bezel-less displays, advanced camera functions, and an overall increase in speed and performance will be the driving factor in the increase of ASPs.

“Moving forward, we can expect this trend to continue as the ASP for a smartphone will continue to grow throughout the forecast period.

“In 2022, the final year of our forecast period, the average selling price for a smartphone will be $362, resulting in a 5-year CAGR of 2.9%.”

Platform Highlights show that Android’s share of total smartphones is expected to remain relatively stable at 85% of total shipments worldwide.

Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.5%, with shipments totaling 1.41 billion by 2022.

There is no question that Android is the OS of choice for the mass market and nothing leads us to believe this will change.

Given the large number of Chinese OEMs dependent on Google’s OS, as well as components from other U.S. companies like Qualcomm, it will be interesting to see how things develop with all the discussion about a US-China trade war.

Android OEMs continue to drive down the coast of new technology features at a rapid pace.

IDC estimates that 98% of Android phones will ship with screens larger than 5 inches by 2022, with 36% being 6 inches or larger.

While some of this will remain premium flagship models, the aggregate ASP of Android phones with a 6-inch screen or greater by 2022 is projected to be $414.

iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow 2.6% in 2018 to 221 million in total.

IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, reaching volumes of 242 million by 2022.

With rumors of some upcoming larger screen iOS smartphones, IDC has changed its screen size forecast for Apple by introducing volumes greater than 6 inches.

Products are likely to begin shipping in the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes ramping up and accounting for 36% of all iPhones shipped by 2022.

 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Study Shows Blocks in Telegram are Pushing the Underground Out

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Modern messengers, such as WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal and others, are often used for illicit purposes. Kaspersky Digital Footprint Intelligence has conducted an in-depth monitoring of over 800 blocked cybercriminal Telegram channels between 2021 and 2024.

While a range of illegal activities continues to be hosted on the platform, its environment has become noticeably more challenging for sustained underground operations.

Telegram’s bot framework and other built-in features make for a low-effort ecosystem for the underworld.

A single bot can simultaneously manage queries, process cryptocurrency payments, and instantly deliver stolen bank cards, info-stealer logs, phishing kits, or DDoS attacks to hundreds of buyers per day, often without operator involvement.

Unlimited, non-expiring file storage eliminates the need for external hosting when distributing multi-gigabyte database dumps or stolen corporate documents. This frictionless automation naturally favours high-volume, low-price, low-skill offerings, such as leaked bank cards or other data, hosting malware, etc.

High-value, trust-dependent deals (for instance, zero-day vulnerability information) still remain on reputation-gated dark-web forums.

Kaspersky researchers found two clear trends related to illegal activities on Telegram. The average lifespan of shadow channels has increased, with the proportion of channels surviving over nine months more than tripling in 2023-2024 compared to 2021–2022. At the same time, Telegram’s blocking activity has risen significantly.

Monthly takedown figures recorded since October 2024 – even at their lowest – are comparable to the peak levels seen throughout 2023, and the overall pace continued to accelerate in 2025. This impedes malicious activities.

Other disadvantages of Telegram for cybercriminals include the lack of default end-to-end (E2E) encryption for chats, the inability to use their own servers for communication (due to the messenger’s centralised infrastructure), and closed server-side code, which makes it impossible to verify its functionality.

As a result, several established underground communities, including the nearly 9,000-member BFRepo group and the Angel Drainer malware-as-a-service operation, have already begun shifting primary activity to other platforms or proprietary messengers, citing repeated disruptions of their activities on Telegram.

“Fraudsters find Telegram a convenient tool for many malicious activities, but the risk-reward balance is clearly shifting. Channels are managing to stay online longer than a couple of years ago, yet the dramatically higher volume of blocks means operators can no longer count on long-term stability.

“When a storefront or service disappears overnight – and sometimes reappears only to be removed again weeks later – building a reliable business becomes much harder. We’re starting to see the early stages of migration as a direct consequence,” comments Vladislav Belousov, Digital Footprint Analyst at Kaspersky.


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Galaxy Backbone Marks Two Decades of Powering Nigeria’s Digital Evolution

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Galaxy Backbone Limited (GBB), the Federal Government’s leading ICT infrastructure and shared services provider, will mark its 20th anniversary in June 2026 with a grand celebration that reflects two decades of innovation, resilience, and national impact.

Since its inception in 2006, Galaxy Backbone has been at the heart of Nigeria’s digital transformation journey; building the technological foundation that supports modern government operations and public service delivery. What began as a bold vision to connect government has grown into a critical national platform that drives efficiency, transparency, collaboration and innovation across the public sector.

Over the last 20 years, GBB has helped redefine how government works. By providing secure connectivity, enterprise-grade data centre services, cloud platforms, and digital collaboration tools, Galaxy Backbone has enabled Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to move from fragmented, paper-based processes to more integrated, technology-driven systems.

This transformation has improved government-to-government coordination, strengthened engagement with businesses, and enhanced the delivery of services to citizens. Today, the digital infrastructure powered by Galaxy Backbone supports thousands of government users, hundreds of institutions, and critical national platforms that Nigerians rely on daily.

A key part of this journey has been the Federal Government of Nigeria’s investment, managed by GBB in robust national infrastructure, high-capacity and world class data centres, fibre-optic connectivity across multiple states, secure hosting services, and shared platforms that have helped government operate more efficiently and responsively. These contributions have played a pivotal role in Nigeria’s progress toward a more digital, agile and citizen-centered public service.

Galaxy Backbone’s impact has earned both national and global recognition. In 2025, the organisation was ranked first overall in the Federal Government Website Performance Scorecard, reflecting its commitment to excellence in digital service delivery. Internationally, GBB, a couple of years ago, received the prestigious United Nations Public Service Award, a testament to its leadership in promoting a whole-of-government approach to digital transformation.

As GBB celebrates two decades of service, this milestone is more than an organisational anniversary; it is a celebration of Nigeria’s digital evolution. It is an opportunity to appreciate how collaboration between government, industry partners, technology providers, and dedicated public servants has helped build a stronger, more connected nation.

The June 2026 anniversary celebration will bring together stakeholders from across the public and private sectors to reflect on the journey so far, acknowledge the partnerships that have shaped this success, and chart an ambitious course for the future. It will highlight how collective effort, shared vision, and innovation have positioned Galaxy Backbone as a strategic national asset.

Looking ahead, Galaxy Backbone remains committed to deepening digital transformation across the country; expanding infrastructure, strengthening cybersecurity, enhancing service delivery, and supporting the Federal Government’s drive for a smarter, more efficient and digitally empowered Nigeria.

At 20 years, Galaxy Backbone stands proud of its past, confident in its present, and inspired by the limitless possibilities ahead.

 


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Galaxy Backbone Marks 20 Years, Tops FG Website Scorecard

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Galaxy Backbone Limited (GBB), Nigeria’s leading federal ICT infrastructure provider, has announced its 20th-anniversary celebration for June 2026, marking two decades since unifying government’s fragmented digital landscape into a secure national platform.

Galaxy Backbone Marks 20 Years, Tops FG Website Scorecard

Galaxy Backbone

The announcement by Head of Media and Corporate Communications Chidi Okpala follows GBB’s top ranking in the 2025 Federal Government Website Performance Scorecard by the Bureau of Public Service Reforms, cementing its leadership in digital service delivery and transparency.

Managing Director Professor Ibrahim Adepoju Adeyanju described the milestone as celebrating Nigeria’s shift from paper-based silos to a cloud-first, integrated government. Achievements include the UN Public Service Award for 1-GOV.net, high-speed fiber deployment for G2G and G2B interactions, IPPIS payroll rollout, and pandemic-era digital support.

The June event will gather public-private stakeholders, global tech partners, and policymakers to unveil GBB’s next-decade roadmap emphasising cybersecurity, AI in public service, and rural connectivity.

GBB positions itself at the forefront of Nigeria’s 2030 digital nation drive, with 20 years of innovation signaling a smarter, connected future.


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