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Smartphone Volumes Will Return to Growth in 2019 and Beyond- IDC

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The worldwide smartphone market is expected to contract again in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 and beyond, after declining 0.3% in 2017

According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are forecast to drop 0.2% in 2018 to 1.462 billion units, which is down from 1.465 billion in 2017 and 1.469 billion in 2016.

Looking further out, IDC expects the market is to grow roughly 3% annually from 2019 onwards with worldwide shipment volume reaching 1.654 billion in 2022 and a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%.

The biggest driver of the 2017 downturn was China, which saw its smartphone market decline 4.9% year over year.

Tough times are expected to continue in 2018 as IDC forecasts consumption in China to decline another 7.1% before flattening out in 2019.

The biggest upside in Asia/Pacific continues to be India with volumes expected to grow 14% and 16% in 2018 and 2019.

Chinese OEMs will continue their strategy of selling large volumes of low-end devices by shifting their focus from China to India.

So far most have been able to get around the recently introduced India import tariffs by doing final device assembly at local India manufacturing plants.

As for components, almost everything is still being sourced from China.

Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. said “With 2017 now behind us a lot of interesting market dynamics are unfolding,”

“Even though it declined 5% in 2017, China remains the focal point for many given that it consumes roughly 30% of the world’s smartphones.

“But plenty of pockets of growth can be found beyond China. India is now grabbing headlines and the market itself is going through some rapid transformation.

“Local India manufacturing continues to ramp up, despite still having a heavy dependence on China for components.

“The boom in India is likely to continue in the years to come, but the move toward building up local production has certainly caught the eye of many in the industry.”

Outside of Asia/Pacific, the biggest regions for growth will be the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

All three regions have relatively low penetration rates and plenty of upsides.

Economic challenges have been the main inhibitor over the past two years, but IDC expects consumer spending to rise throughout the forecast and smartphones to be a big benefactor.

The other catalyst to watch will be the introduction of 5G smartphones.

IDC predicts the first commercially ready 5G smartphones will appear in the second half of 2019 with a ramp up across most regions happening in 2020.

IDC projects 5G smartphone volumes to account for roughly 7% of all smartphones in 2020 or 212 million in total.

The share of 5G devices should grow to 18% of total volumes by 2022.

Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said “Although overall smartphone shipments will decline slightly in 2018, the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone will reach $345, up 10.3% from the $313 ASP in 2017.

“This year will continue to focus on the ultra-high-end segment of the market as we expect a surge of premium flagship devices to launch in developed markets in 2018.

“Devices featuring large AMOLED bezel-less displays, advanced camera functions, and an overall increase in speed and performance will be the driving factor in the increase of ASPs.

“Moving forward, we can expect this trend to continue as the ASP for a smartphone will continue to grow throughout the forecast period.

“In 2022, the final year of our forecast period, the average selling price for a smartphone will be $362, resulting in a 5-year CAGR of 2.9%.”

Platform Highlights show that Android’s share of total smartphones is expected to remain relatively stable at 85% of total shipments worldwide.

Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.5%, with shipments totaling 1.41 billion by 2022.

There is no question that Android is the OS of choice for the mass market and nothing leads us to believe this will change.

Given the large number of Chinese OEMs dependent on Google’s OS, as well as components from other U.S. companies like Qualcomm, it will be interesting to see how things develop with all the discussion about a US-China trade war.

Android OEMs continue to drive down the coast of new technology features at a rapid pace.

IDC estimates that 98% of Android phones will ship with screens larger than 5 inches by 2022, with 36% being 6 inches or larger.

While some of this will remain premium flagship models, the aggregate ASP of Android phones with a 6-inch screen or greater by 2022 is projected to be $414.

iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow 2.6% in 2018 to 221 million in total.

IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, reaching volumes of 242 million by 2022.

With rumors of some upcoming larger screen iOS smartphones, IDC has changed its screen size forecast for Apple by introducing volumes greater than 6 inches.

Products are likely to begin shipping in the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes ramping up and accounting for 36% of all iPhones shipped by 2022.

 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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NCC, CBN Unveil Refund Framework for Failed Airtime, Data Transactions

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Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have finalized a consumer protection framework to swiftly resolve complaints from failed airtime and data purchases caused by network outages, system errors, or user mistakes.

NCC, CBN Unveil Refund Framework for Failed Airtime, Data Transactions

NCC, CBN

Developed after months of consultations with Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), Value Added Service (VAS) providers, Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), and other stakeholders, the framework responds to surging reports of debits without service delivery and prolonged resolution delays.

It unites telecom and financial sectors by pinpointing root causes—like debits without service credits—and enforces a Service Level Agreement (SLA) defining roles for all parties in transactions and refunds.

Key provisions include refunds within 30 seconds for debited but undelivered airtime or data (extendable to 24 hours for pending cases), mandatory SMS notifications on transaction status, and remedies for errors such as recharges to ported numbers, wrong purchases, or misdirected transactions.

NCC Consumer Affairs Director, Mrs. Freda Bruce-Bennett, highlighted a new Central Monitoring Dashboard, co-hosted by NCC and CBN, for real-time tracking of failures, culprits, refunds, and SLA violations.

“Failed top-ups are among the top three consumer complaints. True to our mandate, we prioritized a rapid solution,” she stated.

Bruce-Bennett thanked stakeholders, especially CBN leadership, noting that MNOs and banks have already refunded over N10 billion pending formal approval.

Implementation begins March 1, 2026, following regulator approvals and technical integrations by MNOs, VAS providers, and DMBs.


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NASENI Launches Inter-Agency Innovation Competition for MDAs

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National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) has announced the launch of an Inter-Agency Innovation Competition and Awards to stimulate creativity and technological advancement among Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of the Federal Government.

NASENI Launches Inter-Agency Innovation Competition for MDAs

NASENI

In a statement issued on Wednesday in Abuja, NASENI said the initiative was designed to harness innovative ideas from public servants that can drive indigenous industrialization, job creation and national progress.

According to the agency, the competition will provide a platform for MDAs to propose solutions in critical sectors such as health, agriculture, education and infrastructure, leveraging science and technology to improve public service delivery and enhance the quality of life for Nigerians.

“The competition seeks to promote collaboration and creativity among MDAs while addressing pressing national challenges through innovation,” the statement said.

NASENI urged interested MDAs to submit their entries through its innovation portal at naseni.gov.ng/innovation.

The agency reiterated its statutory mission “to develop and maintain a dynamic infrastructure to drive Nigeria’s indigenous industrialization, job creation and national progress,” adding that the competition would further strengthen efforts to unlock the nation’s potential through science and technology.


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Mandatory Biometric Verification for Starlink Users in Nigeria Begins

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Users of satellite internet service provider Starlink in Nigeria are being required to complete a biometric Know Your Customer (KYC) process as a precondition to continue enjoying their services, according to .biometricupdate.

Mandatory Biometric Verification for Starlink Users in Nigeria Begins

According to local reports, more than 66,000 Starlink subscribers in the country had a December 31 ultimatum from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to complete the biometric verification or have their connection discontinued.

The process essentially entails linking a Starlkink account with the subscriber’s national digital ID.

The NCC, which is Nigeria’s telecoms industry regulator, is said to have first issued the directive in August last year, setting a three-month deadline which was to elapse on November 19, TechCabal reports.

The body however later extended it to December 31 after consultations with industry stakeholders. The internet account-NIN linkage, the NCC said, is to enhance identity verification and strengthen security within the country’s telecoms space.

Just a few days to the December 31 deadline, Starlink’s Nigeria office sent an email to its subscribers reminding them of the KYC requirement, and warned that all those who fail to comply would be disconnected.

And that once disconnected, reconnection would depend on network capacity in the concerned area.

The service provider said in its email that the process takes less than two minutes and users can complete it by logging in to their account via an app.

One user, quoted by TechCabal, said one needs to upload their selfie biometrics, provide their national identification number (NIN) and then give their consent for the account to be linked to their ID information.

Starlink’s internet service is present in about 155 countries with nine million users, as of 2025. Its growth in Nigeria is said to be rapid, making it the second largest internet service provider in the country, according to The Traffic.

Biometric identification for Starlink subscribers could become a continent-wide trend given that some countries have expressed reservations in opening up their internet space to the company over security concerns.

There’ve been fears that jihadists in countries like Mali and Nigeria may have exploited Starlink terminals to coordinate terror operations, and cybersecurity experts have also warned of risks related to weak regulation, digital sovereignty and data breaches.

The requirement for Starlink internet users to have their accounts linked with the NIN is similar to the SIM-NIN linkage policy which the Nigerian government battled to implement for many years, with many deadline extensions.

In October last year, the NCC, which is was at the forefront of the policy implementation, announced that all active SIM cards across all network providers had complied with the directive which was issued in 2020.

The idea, the federal government argued, was to strengthen security and curb criminality such as kidnappings which are aided and abetted by improperly identified mobile phone numbers.


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