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Smartphone Volumes Will Return to Growth in 2019 and Beyond- IDC

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The worldwide smartphone market is expected to contract again in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 and beyond, after declining 0.3% in 2017

According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are forecast to drop 0.2% in 2018 to 1.462 billion units, which is down from 1.465 billion in 2017 and 1.469 billion in 2016.

Looking further out, IDC expects the market is to grow roughly 3% annually from 2019 onwards with worldwide shipment volume reaching 1.654 billion in 2022 and a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%.

The biggest driver of the 2017 downturn was China, which saw its smartphone market decline 4.9% year over year.

Tough times are expected to continue in 2018 as IDC forecasts consumption in China to decline another 7.1% before flattening out in 2019.

The biggest upside in Asia/Pacific continues to be India with volumes expected to grow 14% and 16% in 2018 and 2019.

Chinese OEMs will continue their strategy of selling large volumes of low-end devices by shifting their focus from China to India.

So far most have been able to get around the recently introduced India import tariffs by doing final device assembly at local India manufacturing plants.

As for components, almost everything is still being sourced from China.

Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. said “With 2017 now behind us a lot of interesting market dynamics are unfolding,”

“Even though it declined 5% in 2017, China remains the focal point for many given that it consumes roughly 30% of the world’s smartphones.

“But plenty of pockets of growth can be found beyond China. India is now grabbing headlines and the market itself is going through some rapid transformation.

“Local India manufacturing continues to ramp up, despite still having a heavy dependence on China for components.

“The boom in India is likely to continue in the years to come, but the move toward building up local production has certainly caught the eye of many in the industry.”

Outside of Asia/Pacific, the biggest regions for growth will be the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

All three regions have relatively low penetration rates and plenty of upsides.

Economic challenges have been the main inhibitor over the past two years, but IDC expects consumer spending to rise throughout the forecast and smartphones to be a big benefactor.

The other catalyst to watch will be the introduction of 5G smartphones.

IDC predicts the first commercially ready 5G smartphones will appear in the second half of 2019 with a ramp up across most regions happening in 2020.

IDC projects 5G smartphone volumes to account for roughly 7% of all smartphones in 2020 or 212 million in total.

The share of 5G devices should grow to 18% of total volumes by 2022.

Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said “Although overall smartphone shipments will decline slightly in 2018, the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone will reach $345, up 10.3% from the $313 ASP in 2017.

“This year will continue to focus on the ultra-high-end segment of the market as we expect a surge of premium flagship devices to launch in developed markets in 2018.

“Devices featuring large AMOLED bezel-less displays, advanced camera functions, and an overall increase in speed and performance will be the driving factor in the increase of ASPs.

“Moving forward, we can expect this trend to continue as the ASP for a smartphone will continue to grow throughout the forecast period.

“In 2022, the final year of our forecast period, the average selling price for a smartphone will be $362, resulting in a 5-year CAGR of 2.9%.”

Platform Highlights show that Android’s share of total smartphones is expected to remain relatively stable at 85% of total shipments worldwide.

Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.5%, with shipments totaling 1.41 billion by 2022.

There is no question that Android is the OS of choice for the mass market and nothing leads us to believe this will change.

Given the large number of Chinese OEMs dependent on Google’s OS, as well as components from other U.S. companies like Qualcomm, it will be interesting to see how things develop with all the discussion about a US-China trade war.

Android OEMs continue to drive down the coast of new technology features at a rapid pace.

IDC estimates that 98% of Android phones will ship with screens larger than 5 inches by 2022, with 36% being 6 inches or larger.

While some of this will remain premium flagship models, the aggregate ASP of Android phones with a 6-inch screen or greater by 2022 is projected to be $414.

iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow 2.6% in 2018 to 221 million in total.

IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, reaching volumes of 242 million by 2022.

With rumors of some upcoming larger screen iOS smartphones, IDC has changed its screen size forecast for Apple by introducing volumes greater than 6 inches.

Products are likely to begin shipping in the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes ramping up and accounting for 36% of all iPhones shipped by 2022.

 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Zipline Achieves One Millionth Delivery Milestone

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Zipline, the leading force in drone logistics delivery, has reached a monumental achievement with its one-millionth delivery to customers, signifying a significant leap forward in the logistics delivery sector. This historic milestone was marked by the delivery of two bags of IV fluid from a Zipline distribution center in Ghana to a local health facility.

Renowned for its innovative approach to designing, building, and operating autonomous delivery drones, Zipline’s zero-emission technology has garnered acclaim, covering over 70 million commercial miles across four continents.

Backed by investments surpassing several millions of dollars from notable supporters like Sequoia Capital, a16z, and Google Ventures, Zipline has firmly established itself as a disruptive leader in the industry. CEO Keller Rinaudo emphasizes the company’s commitment to key markets such as healthcare, quick commerce, and food delivery, envisioning a future where Zipline achieves 1 million deliveries per day.

“The three areas where the incentive really makes the most sense today are health care, quick commerce, and food,” underscoring Zipline’s commitment to partnering with top brands and institutions to transform the future of logistics using autonomous drones –  Keller Rinaudo Cliffton.

In Africa, Zipline has made a profound impact, forging significant partnerships across the continent. In Ghana alone, which accounts for about 54% of the one-millionth delivery milestone, Zipline’s collaboration with the government and health ministry has been pivotal. Since its inception, Zipline has completed over 540,000 drone delivery flights across Ghana, encompassing the delivery of crucial supplies, including 3,566,500 units of vaccines, 2,825,210 units of medical products, 14,807 units of blood products, and 18,289 units of animal health products. These deliveries have directly impacted the lives of over 17 million Ghanaians across 13 regions, saving 6,014 lives through emergency deliveries, including blood products and snake antivenom since 2019.

Beyond mere statistics, the company has facilitated the delivery of 12.2 million vaccine doses, including 2.8 million Covid-19 vaccines, leading to a 21% increase in vaccination coverage and a 44% reduction in missed opportunities to vaccinate in Ghana. These efforts have potentially saved 727 lives due to increased vaccination coverage. Additionally, Zipline’s infrastructure expansion in Ghana, with six distribution centers strategically located across the country, has enabled swift and efficient on-demand drone delivery services.

Not only this, the technology has facilitated the vaccination of 104,000 cattle against Anthrax in northern Ghana, safeguarding both human and animal lives. Such interventions have also extended to the agricultural sector, where 10.4 million doses of poultry vaccines have been delivered to poultry farmers nationwide, combating diseases such as Newcastle disease, Fowl pox, and Gumboro.

But Zipline’s impact in Africa extends far beyond Ghana’s borders. Operating in Rwanda, Kenya, Côte D’Ivoire, and Nigeria, the company has become a beacon of hope for healthcare accessibility and disease prevention. In Rwanda, Zipline serves as a lifeline, delivering 75% of the country’s blood supply outside of Kigali, drastically reducing maternal mortality rates due to postpartum hemorrhage by 88%. Additionally, the company’s deliveries of agricultural products have elevated farmers’ fertility rates by 10% compared to the national average.

In Kenya, Zipline’s collaborations with the Elton John AIDS Foundation have facilitated the delivery of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment products, empowering individuals to manage their health effectively. Similarly, in Nigeria, Zipline’s expansive coverage encompasses over 500 health facilities in Kaduna, more than 350 in Cross River State, and 200 in Bayelsa. Teaming up with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Zipline focuses on reaching children in remote regions, ensuring equitable access to life-saving immunizations.

Zipline’s adaptive approach and tailored delivery services reflect its commitment to meeting the diverse needs of populations and sectors. The achievement of the one millionth delivery milestone underscores its dedication to enhancing healthcare outcomes and addressing societal needs across Africa. As Zipline continues to innovate and expand its reach, it is poised to shape the future of healthcare delivery on the continent and beyond.

 

 

 


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Telcos Record N27Bn Loss from Damaged Fibre Cables

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Repairs and revenue losses from damaged cables are estimated to have cost Nigeria’s telecom industry almost N27bn ($23m) in 2023, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg.

Telcos Record N27Bn Loss from Damaged Fibre Cables

MTN Nigeria, the biggest wireless operator in Africa’s most-populous nation, and Airtel Africa Plc bore the brunt of the costs, the documents show.

MTN suffered more than 6,000 cuts on its fiber cable last year, the documents show.

On Feb. 28, a cut in its network in three different locations by a road construction firm, an oil serving company, and someone burning rubbish in a manhole meant customers faced more than five hours of data and voice outages.

The operator relocated 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles) of vulnerable fiber cables between 2022 and 2023, at a cost of more than N11bn —enough to build 870 kilometers of new fiber lines in areas without coverage.

Broadband fibre optic cables form the backbone of modern communication infrastructure, enabling the high-speed data transmission that underpins a wide range of personal, business, and societal activities.

On several occasions, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the industry regulator, has acknowledged this challenge and expressed willingness to work on measures to address it.

These measures include stricter regulations to deter vandalism and improved collaboration between telcos and government agencies responsible for construction activities.

According to the NCC, the telecom sector will make up more than a fifth of the country’s gross domestic product by the end of 2027, up from 13.5 per cent in the third quarter of last year.


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NCAIR Relaunch: Pantami, Tijani Fight for Credit

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Isa Pantami, former minister of Communications and Digital Economy, has voiced his discontent over the relaunch of the National Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (NCAIR) by Bosun Tijani, his successor.

Isa Pantami, former minister of Communications and Digital Economy,

Tijani announced the revitalization of NCAIR, highlighting enhancements in its capacity and partnerships with global tech firm Cisco.

However, Pantami took to social media to assert that NCAIR was already established during his tenure in November 2020, dubbing it “the first of its kind in Africa” and emphasizing its effectiveness in training numerous Nigerians.

Tijani responded by detailing the new initiatives accompanying the relaunch, including increased computing infrastructure, dedicated research labs, and remote connectivity for AI hubs across the country. He also unveiled outcomes from the Ministry’s National AI Workshop, such as the country’s first Multilingual Large Language Model and partnerships aimed at accelerating AI development projects of national significance.

The exchange between Pantami and Tijani underscores ongoing efforts to advance AI research and application in Nigeria while navigating questions of continuity and leadership transition within the Ministry.

 


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