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Is Nigeria Exposed to the Emerging Market Chaos?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 

It has certainly been an explosively volatile trading quarter thus far as investors juggled with global trade tensions, Dollar strength and chaos across emerging markets.

The simmering trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies fuelled global risk aversion while a brutal sell-off in the EM space rattled investor confidence.

With fears mounting over a full-blown trade war triggering global instability and negatively impacting growth, emerging markets especially remain under extreme pressure.

Fears remain elevated over the turmoil in Turkey and Argentina spreading like a virus across developing and developed nations.

With the South African economy already descending into a recession, will Nigeria be the next economy to take a hit?

Throughout the third quarter of 2018, Nigeria has kept afloat with GDP expanding 1.5% during Q2 and inflation easing 11.14%. Although the nation’s external reserve dropped to the lowest since March to $45 billion, it still remains at manageable levels.

With oil prices somewhat supported by geopolitics and the Naira displaying a degree of stability against the Dollar, the outlook looks somewhat encouraging.

However, external risks in the form of an appreciating Dollar, prospects of higher interest rates and trade tensions could cripple Nigeria’s fragile recovery.

Contagion fears stemming from the EM selloff may force investors to scale back on investing in emerging markets, including Nigeria, while capital outflows could complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s effort to defend the Naira.

Although expectations were initially elevated over the CBN cutting interest rates in the second half of 2018 to stimulate growth, the current global and domestic economic landscape could force the central bank to maintain the status quo.

A CBN rate cut will widen the interest rate differential with the Federal Reserve, ultimately accelerating capital outflows and threaten price stability.

With inflation also expected to rebound thanks to election spending, some even feel the CBN may end up hiking rates instead.

Referring to price stability, the Naira, like most other emerging market currencies, remains impacted by external forces.

Although the local currency has barely budged against the Dollar, this is based on the CBN’s repeated intervention in the FX markets.

While this strategy could ensure the local currency remains supported in the short term, Nigeria’s external reserves are already feeling the pressure.

On the plus side, with Nigeria achieving a current account surplus, the Naira’s punishment may not be as severe as those currencies belonging to markets with a high account deficit.

Although Nigeria’s economic prospects remain tied to Oil prices, the upcoming presidential elections could play a leading role in determining if the nation is able to conclude this year on a firm footing.

The increased spending ahead of the February elections will most likely be a welcome development for economic growth.

If Oil prices remain at current levels and support both government revenue and consumption, this may stimulate the recovery further.

The largest economy in Africa still has the ability to shock the world stage this year.

While it is widely known that the cure to Nigeria’s illness – Oil dependency – can be found in economic diversification, the correct steps must be taken while the conditions are still accommodative.

As the third trading quarter of 2018 slowly comes to an end, global sentiment is likely to remain heavily influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions and the emerging market rout.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates this month, the CBN’s effort to defend the Naira may be obstructed.

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

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The IMF on Tuesday warned of risks surrounding Nigeria’s plan to borrow up to $5 billion through a derivatives agreement with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank, saying such transactions are often opaque and complex.

IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

Recall that the Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement, joining other Africa borrowers like Senegal and Angola who have tapped similar arrangements over the past year.

“Our view is that the transaction in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments ​across countries,” Christian Ebeke, IMF resident representative in Nigeria, told reporters.

Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

Nigeria intends to use proceeds from the total return swap, or TRS, to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

In its latest Article IV review, the Fund praised Nigeria’s sweeping reforms, saying they had strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, but warned that the benefits had ‌yet to reach millions of citizens and could be undermined by global shocks, including the Middle East conflict.

The reforms since 2023 under President Bola Tinubu – including fuel subsidy removal, tighter monetary policy and exchange rate liberalisation – had rebuilt buffers and improved macroeconomic management, the IMF said.

However, it cautioned that the reforms were also contributing to social strain, with poverty levels at 63% and millions facing food insecurity, underscoring a widening gap between macro gains and household realities.

The IMF said improved policy credibility and forex reforms had helped Nigeria regain access to international capital markets and attract portfolio inflows, while reducing risk premiums. The central bank says gross reserves are at $50 billion, the highest in 17 years.

But reliance on volatile foreign portfolio investment poses rollover risks, the IMF said, urging a shift towards more stable, long-term capital such as foreign direct investment.


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SSDC Warns Businesses against Cyber, Election-Related Risks

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Security Skills Development Company (SSDC) has released its 2026 Security Outlook, highlighting four major security challenges expected to shape Nigeria’s business and operating environment as the country moves closer to the 2027 general election.

SSDC Warns Businesses against Cyber, Election-Related Risks

The report, developed from a nationwide survey and expert contributions at the recently concluded Security Thought Leadership Roundtable, identifies internal security threats, protection of national assets, cyber risks and election-related instability as the most significant concerns facing organisations and institutions in the coming year.

According to SSDC, findings from the survey and stakeholder discussions reveal growing concern over the increasing complexity of security challenges and their potential impact on business continuity, economic stability and public confidence.

A substantial number of respondents identified internal threats within organisations as an emerging risk, pointing to the need for stronger corporate governance, workforce integrity measures and structured risk management systems.

Security experts at the roundtable noted that weaknesses in critical public infrastructure and national assets could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and national development if not adequately addressed.

The report also highlights cybercrime as a persistent and evolving threat to both public and private sector institutions.

Participants stressed the importance of strengthening cyber resilience through proactive monitoring, investment in technology-driven safeguards and improved security awareness.

Another key concern raised in the outlook is what SSDC described as the “2027 Election Shadow.” Many respondents expressed concerns about the possibility of heightened political tension as the election season approaches, warning that uncertainty and security disruptions could affect business operations, investment decisions and overall economic confidence.

Speaking on the report’s findings, Mike Igbodipe, managing director, SSDC, called for a more strategic approach to security management across both public and private sectors.

He said organisations must move beyond reactive security measures and integrate security considerations into their broader strategic planning and decision-making processes. He also advocated the development of a gold-standard, locally certified training programme for security professionals tailored to Nigeria’s unique security environment.

SSDC, a security training and consulting firm focused on advancing professional standards in Nigeria’s security sector and strengthening industrial resilience through capacity building and strategic expertise, said the Security Outlook forms part of its ongoing thought leadership initiative aimed at promoting informed dialogue on national security, institutional resilience and risk management.

The company reaffirmed its commitment to supporting stakeholders through research, training and strategic advisory services designed to improve preparedness and response to emerging security challenges.

 

 

 


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Moniepoint DreamDevs Bootcamp Graduates Second Cohort to Strengthen Homegrown Talent Pipeline

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L-r: Co-Founder/Chief Operating Officer, Semicolon, Ashley Immanuel; Employer Brand Manager, Moniepoint, Celestina Dike; Head of Engineering, Moniepoint, John Ojetunde and Head, Talent Acquisition, Moniepoint, Perpetual Ibe at the Moniepoint DreamDevs Demo Day presentation which held in Lagos.
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Moniepoint Inc., Africa’s leading digital financial services provider, has officially graduated the second cohort of its flagship DreamDevs Bootcamp, marking a significant milestone in the company’s ongoing effort to build world-class engineering talent from the ground up.

The graduation was celebrated at a Demo Day event held in Lagos, themed “Training Done! Demo Up!”, where participants presented capstone projects built to real-world engineering standards.

The graduation comes at a crucial time for Africa’s tech ecosystem. Although Nigeria’s tech talent is growing, it isn’t sufficient, especially at the mid-to-senior engineering level, where demand far exceeds supply. By 2030, the global shortage of software developers could reach 85 million, leading to economic losses of $5.5 trillion. For a continent developing its digital infrastructure, this is critical. Moniepoint’s DreamDevs Bootcamp is a strategic response to these challenges.

The nine-week curriculum, created by Moniepoint’s Engineering Unit in partnership with Semicolon, covered Java Object-Oriented Programming, Data Structures and Algorithms, Software Testing, MySQL, Spring Boot APIs, System Design, Docker, Messaging Queues, Frontend UI, and Cloud Infrastructure. Participants received programme stipends and mentorship from experienced Moniepoint software engineers, gaining valuable exposure to the production environment of one of Africa’s fastest-growing fintech firms.

During the Demo Day presentation, the participants paired into 9 teams were excited to showcase how they have deployed knowledge and skills gained during the course of the bootcamp  into real and useful  solutions in real estate, hospital management, event management, food and agriculture.

Commenting, Felix Ike, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Moniepoint, said, “DreamDevs is a structural investment in Nigeria’s digital economy, not a recruitment exercise, not a pipeline built solely to serve Moniepoint’s hiring needs. That said, we are proud that some graduates from our first cohort are already active members of our engineering team, proof that when young African engineers are given the right training and the right environment, they can compete at the highest level”.

Felix added that “Engineering excellence is not a naturally occurring phenomenon. It is a curated and intentionally built process that requires the right systems, the right resources, and sufficient time to take hold. Building that process and making it accessible to the brightest young engineers on this continent is a responsibility we have chosen to own.

Africa’s digital economy is attracting significant global capital, yet the talent infrastructure required to sustain that growth remains underdeveloped. The DreamDevs Bootcamp and our other capacity-building initiatives across some of Nigeria’s public universities demonstrate Moniepoint’s commitment to this responsibility.

The initiative also aligns with Nigeria’s broader national agenda on technology skills development. Moniepoint serves as a key sponsor of the Federal Government’s 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme, which focuses on mass technical skills training across the country. While 3MTT addresses the scale challenge, DreamDevs provides depth, offering a specialised, end-to-end pathway from foundational training through to employment within Moniepoint’s complete development ecosystem.

As Nigerian fintechs deepen their infrastructure ambitions, the ability to grow engineering capacity that feeds these aspirations requires an urgent industry intervention, as Moniepoint is demonstrating to address Africa’s engineering talent challenge.


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