Telecom
Is MTN Being Shaken Down By Buhari’s Government?
Nigeria’s costly claims against the South African company raise questions about investment security in Africa’s largest economy, according to Peter Fabricius, a consultant with Institute for Security Studies (ISS)
ISS partners to build knowledge and skills that secure Africa’s future.
Fabricius said that there’s something suspicious about the two large and unexpected charges Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s government has just imposed on the largest cellphone operator in the country, South Africa’s MTN.
“Last month the Nigerian central bank ordered MTN to return US$8.1 billion in dividends it allegedly illegally transferred out the country between 2007 and 2015. The bank also slapped US$16 million in fines on several foreign banks for facilitating these transfers.
Then the attorney-general’s office demanded US$2 billion in back taxes from MTN, which vowed it was innocent of all the charges and would vigorously oppose them. The double whammy helped knock MTN’s share price by about a third, boosting shareholders’ losses to well over R100 billion since the start of 2018.
Coming on top of the US$5 billion fine – later negotiated down to US$1.7 billion – that Nigeria hit MTN with two years ago for failing to disconnect unregistered subscribers, this has raised questions about the motives of Buhari’s government.
He faces a difficult re-election campaign in February. A major part of his mandate from his first election in 2014 was to combat corruption and enforce financial regulations. So is clamping down on MTN a genuine attempt to improve governance? Or is it more about fleecing an easy target – a rich foreign company – when low oil prices and mismanagement of the economy have slashed revenue and badly depleted foreign reserves?
There are good reasons to be sceptical about the hit on MTN. For one thing, as Dobek Pater, director of business development at Africa Analysis, told Biznews, how was it that the Central Bank of Nigeria and the tax authority failed to detect both the allegedly illegal transfer of dividends and the failure to pay tax for so many years?
He said this suggested either a failure by the Nigerian authorities to do their job of monitoring such large financial movements, or a deliberate laxness. If the latter, why did they suddenly decide to enforce the regulations now? It also seems improbable, merely on face value, that after being hit with that huge fine two years ago, MTN would have flouted the regulations again so soon.
Pater noted that other mobile phone operators in Nigeria had not come under the same scrutiny as MTN, which was an ‘easy target’ because it was profitable and because its operations were transparent, unlike some other mobile phone operators in the country. Also, no doubt, because it’s foreign.
Vestact CEO Paul Theron told Bloomberg that Nigeria’s move was ‘pathetic, nationalistic and immature’ and could ‘severely weaken Nigeria’s economy in the years to come’. MTN has been among the most committed foreign investors in recent decades, the money manager said.
Nigeria’s move has also cast doubt on MTN’s plans to list on the Nigerian stock exchange which it promised to do after the fiasco two years ago. Pater told Biznews he thought it unlikely that MTN would want to list in Nigeria under the cloud of alleged flouting of regulations and with its share price at home so far down.
Alastair Jones, an analyst at the London-based New Street Research, told South Africa’s Business Times that if MTN failed to avoid the huge claims, the listing might never occur, as this would raise questions about MTN Nigeria as a going concern.
Pater told Biznews that perhaps the Nigerian government was trying to get its house in order, adding that ‘from history, MTN does not have a squeaky clean reputation, and there have been some transgressions in the past’.
But if indeed the Nigerian authorities were merely shaking down MTN to replenish the country’s foreign exchange coffers and plug the holes in the budget, as some were alleging, this could harm the country’s investment prospects in the long term.
MTN would probably not decide to exit Nigeria this time, as the country remained a big earner for it. It provides the largest number of subscribers – about 27% of the total in the 23 countries where it operates across Africa and the Middle East. Nigeria also earns MTN some 25% of its total revenue, second only to its earnings in South Africa.
And Pater pointed out that while the South African market was mature, Nigeria’s was still growing. Even so, if the company continued to be hit by such large penalties, it might eventually reconsider the viability of its Nigerian investment, he said.
It was likely that another large operator would then move in to take MTN’s place. Pater suggested though that Nigeria would be lucky to find another mobile phone operator with the same commitment to the country as MTN. And potential new investors with no existing commitments to Nigeria would be discouraged.
Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president who is running against Buhari for the main opposition People’s Democratic Party next year, told Bloomberg the way the central bank had targeted MTN would only serve to discourage foreign investors.
‘Even in a worst-case scenario where there were breaches of financial laws and regulations, there are much better ways to deal with it than by the public exposure that MTN has been subjected to,’ Abubakar said. ‘It is bound to send the wrong signal to foreign investors.’
The saga is already affecting investment prospects, it seems. Alan Pullinger, CEO of FirstRand, which is managing the Nigerian listing for MTN, told Business Times that MTN’s experience had made his group more cautious about doing an acquisition in Nigeria.
For some analysts and investors, MTN’s high-profile experience has only served to advertise the hazards of investment in Africa and reinforce an opinion – some would say a prejudice – that Africa as a whole is not a safe destination for one’s money.
David Shapiro, deputy chairman of Sasfin Wealth, told Business Day that the news reinforced his ‘sceptical’ stance towards investments in Africa. Despite the continent’s potential, ‘you have governments, and I must include SA, that are largely unpredictable’.
For the short-term gain of re-election next year, it seems, Nigeria is risking ‘killing the geese that lay the golden eggs’, as Pater warned.”
Peter Fabricius, ISS Consultant
In an insightful assessment of governance standards across the continent, Mcebisi Jonas, chairman of MTN Group, has warned that Africa’s long-term economic redemption rests entirely on the independence and resilience of its core public institutions.
Speaking during the MTN’s The Y’ello Chair vodcast that debuted on August 2, 2026, the corporate titan asserted that fragile governance frameworks continue to destroy economic inclusion and starve the region of critical investments.
Jonas emphasised that building a sustainable economy requires deliberate structural effort rather than mere political promises.
According to him, Africa must consciously protect its public bodies from political interference if it ever hopes to build a globally competitive ecosystem.
Expressing deep worry over institutional decay, Jonas remarked, “You need to hardwire democracy, you need to hardwire economic growth, you need to hardwire economic inclusion. Institutions are central in that process… Once you rubbish your institutions, the country goes down the tube.”
Drawing on his own nation’s historical struggles, Jonas noted how South Africa narrowly averted a total systemic breakdown by protecting its judicial boundaries, though he cautioned that vigilance remains non-negotiable.
He observed that the ultimate test of any healthy democracy is whether a government can humbly submit to the rule of law. “There are few countries in the continent where [the] government goes to court and loses a case,” Jonas lamented, pinpointing judicial autonomy and impartial electoral commissions as the non-negotiable benchmarks of true institutional health.
Hard economic data strongly validates Jonas’s thesis. According to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Africa rebounded to $97 billion in 2024, raising the continent’s share of global inflows from 4% to 6%, driven largely by 36% of global pro-investment policy reforms originating from the continent.
However, experts stress that such capital flows remain highly volatile and tend to flee at the slightest sign of political instability or judicial compromise.
Tying institutional integrity directly to investor confidence, Jonas noted that capital is fundamentally cowardly – it flows only to destinations where credibility is guaranteed by law rather than whim.
As fiscal headwinds worsen across developing economies, Jonas warned African governments against taking shortcuts or manipulating tax policies at the expense of structural credibility, emphasising that a country’s economic survival depends on predictable, independent institutions.
The 12th edition of the eWorld Forum will hold on Thursday, September 24, 2026, at the Oriental Hotel, Victoria Island, Lagos, under the theme: “The GSM Digital Milestones: 25 Years On.”
Since its inauguration in 2010, the eWorld Forum has grown into one of Nigeria’s leading platforms for dialogue on information and communications technology (ICT), bringing together policymakers, regulators, telecommunications operators, technology companies, investors, academics and other industry stakeholders to discuss the future of the country’s digital economy.
The 2026 edition coincides with the 25th anniversary of Nigeria’s GSM revolution, which began with the commercial rollout of GSM services in August 2001. Over the past two and a half decades, mobile telecommunications have transformed virtually every sector of the economy, reshaping communication, commerce, banking, education, healthcare, governance, entertainment and social interaction while accelerating digital inclusion and economic growth.
The forum will provide an opportunity for stakeholders to reflect on the industry’s achievements over the last 25 years, examine current challenges, and chart the path forward in key areas such as broadband expansion, artificial intelligence, fintech, digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, spectrum management and Nigeria’s evolving digital economy.
A major highlight of the event will be the public launch of two books authored by veteran ICT journalist, Publisher of eWorldnews and Convener of the eWorld Forum, Aaron Ukodie.
The first book, Nigeria’s GSM Revolution at 25: The Hall of Digital Pioneers and Players, has been specially published to commemorate the silver jubilee of GSM in Nigeria. The publication chronicles the remarkable evolution of the nation’s telecommunications industry and documents the vision, policies, investments, innovations and contributions of the pioneers, regulators, operators, institutions, companies and individuals whose collective efforts transformed Nigeria into one of Africa’s largest telecommunications and digital markets.
The book serves as a follow-up to Ukodie’s earlier publication, Nigerian Drivers of Digital Prosperity: The Trajectory of the Digital Evolution, Sector Analysis and Players’ Contribution, further preserving the history of Nigeria’s digital transformation.
The second publication, The Pilgrim Trail, is a deeply personal memoir that recounts the author’s life journey, professional experiences, Christian faith and reflections on God’s sustaining grace. The memoir also documents Ukodie’s recovery from the stroke he suffered in 2023 and how, despite prolonged physiotherapy and physical limitations affecting his right hand and right leg, he successfully completed both books. The work stands as a powerful testimony of resilience, perseverance, hope and unwavering faith.
Speaking ahead of the event, Ukodie said: “I am grateful for the opportunity to document both the history of Nigeria’s GSM revolution and my personal journey in The Pilgrim Trail.
“These books preserve important history while bearing testimony to God’s grace and faithfulness in my life. I look forward to sharing them with the public at the forum.”
Although both books will be officially launched during the forum, The Pilgrim Trail is already available for pre-launch orders.
According to the organisers, eWorld Forum 2026 is expected to be a landmark gathering that will celebrate one of Nigeria’s greatest technological success stories while preserving the history of the country’s digital transformation for future generations.
The forum will also honour the institutions, organisations and individuals whose pioneering efforts laid the foundation for Nigeria’s GSM revolution and continue to drive innovation across the nation’s digital ecosystem.
By Justice Winner
Nigeria’s startup ecosystem has entered a new era. Venture capital is no longer chasing bold ideas alone; investors are increasingly looking for businesses that combine innovation with sound governance, operational discipline, and long-term sustainability. As Nigeria reclaims its position as Africa’s leading destination for venture capital, founders must recognise that fundraising is no longer driven solely by product-market fit or revenue growth. Strategic communication has become a competitive advantage.
The collapse of once-promising startups despite raising millions of dollars demonstrates an important lesson: funding can accelerate growth, but reputation, trust, and transparency determine longevity. Investors now evaluate leadership credibility, governance standards, regulatory preparedness, and market positioning alongside financial performance.
Here are five strategic communication moves every startup should implement to improve investor confidence and strengthen enterprise value.
1. Build Trust Before You Need Capital
Investor relationships begin long before a fundraising round. Startups that consistently communicate their vision, milestones, customer impact, and business progress build familiarity and confidence within the investment community.
Rather than disappearing between funding announcements, founders should establish a regular cadence of updates through media engagements, company announcements, newsletters, and thought leadership. Consistent visibility demonstrates momentum, reduces uncertainty, and helps investors understand the long-term trajectory of the business.
Trust compounds over time, making fundraising conversations significantly easier when capital is eventually required.
2. Position Founders as Industry Thought Leaders
Increasingly, investors back founders as much as they back products.
Founders who contribute meaningfully to conversations around regulation, technology, financial inclusion, climate innovation, healthcare, or digital infrastructure establish themselves as credible industry leaders rather than startup operators chasing funding.
Strategic media interviews, opinion articles, conference speaking engagements, podcasts, and executive profiling help build authority. This visibility often places founders on the radar of venture capital firms long before formal introductions are made.
Strong executive visibility also reassures investors that company leadership can effectively represent the business during partnerships, regulatory engagements, and future expansion.
3. Communicate Governance as Clearly as Growth
One of the biggest lessons from recent startup failures is that rapid growth without strong governance creates significant investor risk.
Strategic communication should extend beyond customer acquisition and product launches. Founders should proactively communicate governance improvements, compliance initiatives, board appointments, internal controls, cybersecurity measures, and risk management practices.
Institutional investors increasingly evaluate operational maturity before deploying capital. Demonstrating transparency around governance signals that the company is built for sustainable growth rather than short-term expansion.
Clear governance messaging transforms compliance from a back-office function into an investor confidence strategy.
4. Own Your Narrative Before Others Do
Every startup has a story. The question is whether the company tells it first.
Without deliberate communication, external stakeholders—including competitors, critics, or market speculation—often define public perception. During periods of economic uncertainty, this can significantly influence customer confidence and investor sentiment.
A strategic communications plan should clearly articulate what problem the startup solves, why it matters, how the business creates measurable impact, and what differentiates it within the market.
Narrative ownership also becomes essential during difficult periods. Whether facing product challenges, regulatory changes, fundraising delays, or broader market volatility, startups that communicate openly and consistently are far more likely to preserve stakeholder trust than those that remain silent.
5. Showcase Impact, Not Just Investment
Funding announcements generate headlines, but sustained investor interest comes from demonstrating measurable impact.
Startups should regularly communicate meaningful business metrics, customer success stories, operational milestones, employment generation, market expansion, technology innovation, and contributions to national development.
Nigeria’s most attractive ventures increasingly solve structural challenges—from financial inclusion and agricultural distribution to clean energy and logistics. Communicating this broader economic impact positions startups as long-term infrastructure builders rather than short-term technology companies.
Investors increasingly seek businesses capable of generating sustainable value while contributing to broader economic transformation. The stronger the evidence of impact, the stronger the investment case.
Nigeria’s venture capital ecosystem continues to mature despite global economic headwinds. Improved foreign exchange stability, progressive policies such as the Nigerian Startup Act, increasing sector diversification, and stronger institutional participation have reinforced the country’s position as Africa’s leading innovation hub. However, capital is becoming more selective.
For today’s founders, strategic communication is no longer a marketing exercise—it is a business function that directly influences investor confidence, corporate reputation, partnerships, customer trust, and ultimately valuation. Companies that invest early in building credibility, communicating transparently, and positioning themselves as trusted market leaders will be better equipped to attract long-term capital and navigate future market cycles.
In an increasingly competitive investment landscape, startups that communicate strategically will not simply raise capital—they will command stronger valuations, build more resilient brands, and shape the next chapter of Nigeria’s innovation economy.
By Justice Winner, Senior Account Manager, IVI PR
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