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IMF casts gloomy cloud over Nigeria’s economy

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

Market optimism over Nigeria’s economic recovery received a blow in September following an International Monetary Fund (IMF) statement that the nation was performing poorly.

Although at the start of the year the economic outlook looked incredibly encouraging with Nigeria coming out of a recession, the latest IMF report planted a seed of doubt over that recovery. The nation’s GDP rate in 2018 was revised downwards from 2.1% with tepid growth expected next year. While there could be some truth behind the IMF’s gloomy predictions, it is worth noting they were likely based on trade tensions and stress in emerging markets weighing heavily on global sentiment. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s projected economic growth may not be enough to create jobs for the country’s robust population while inflation is expected to rise to 13.5% in 2019. Although the weak GDP growth witnessed in Q2 added to the factors that have stimulated fears over the economy, there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.

Nigeria’s macro fundamentals were mostly mixed during the third trading quarter with inflation dipping to a 11.14% low before rebounding to 11.24% in August. While consumer prices continued to stabilize, the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory. With foreign exchange reserves hovering around the $46 billion level thanks to higher oil prices, there was noticeable stability in the Naira. The mixed data, external factors, and looming election risk resulted in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintaining status quo for the whole of Q3.

It will be interesting to see if the central bank is able to act during the final trading quarter of this year. Higher US interest rates have sparked capital outflows while global trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Although inflationary pressure has eased, pre-election spending could end up driving consumer prices higher, ultimately complicating the CBN effort to cut interest rates. While the idea behind a rate cut was to stimulate Nigeria’s economic growth, such a strategy may end up widening the interest rate differentials between the Fed and CBN – consequently accelerating capital outflows.

Outside of Nigeria, the bullish sentiment towards the US economy, prospects of higher US interest rates and safe-haven flows have boosted the Greenback. An appreciating Dollar remains very bad news for emerging markets, with Nigeria on the list. With the US firing on all cylinders and the Fed expected to raise interest rates in December and three more times in 2019, EMs remain threatened by capital outflows.

Looking at oil, the commodity had an explosive start in October, with Brent Crude accelerating past $86 and West Texas Intermediate doing its best to catch up but falling behind by roughly $10. Even with reports of the US considering waivers on Iran oil sanctions, the outlook points to further upside. With oil markets heavily supported by trade policy changes in the US and geopolitical risk factors, this is good news for oil-dependent nations. A steady appreciation in oil is likely to support Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government revenues.

As we head deeper into the final trading quarter of 2018, investors will be paying very close attention to domestic economic data, central bank policy, and GDP figures. With the IMF trimming Nigeria’s growth outlook this year and for 2019, this could be a wakeup call for the government to boost its efforts in diversifying the nation from oil reliance. There needs to be a stronger push on agriculture developments and reinforcing infrastructure to create a stable and sustainable macroeconomic environment. With the near-term outlook for oil prices bullish and the Naira witnessing stability against the Dollar, Q3 growth could offer markets a pleasant surprise. It will be interesting to see if positive growth during the third quarter is enough to encourage the CBN to cut interest rates before 2019.


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E-Financial

CBN Wins Central Bank of the Year Title @13th Global Awards

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been named Central Bank of the Year 2026 by an awards committee in London.

 CBN Wins Central Bank of the Year Title @13th Global Awards

The award recognises the bank’s major reforms that helped stabilise Nigeria’s economy and improve investor confidence.

The award is part of the 13th annual Central Banking Awards. It highlights how the CBN helped turn around Nigeria’s economy, which was close to crisis in 2023.

At that time, Nigeria faced serious problems such as high inflation, a weak currency, low foreign reserves, and about $7 billion in unpaid foreign exchange obligations.

There was also a big gap between official and black-market exchange rates.

After Olayemi Cardoso was appointed governor in October 2023 by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the CBN introduced strong reforms. These reforms focused on proper monetary policies, transparency, and market-based systems.

One major change was in the foreign exchange system.

The CBN removed multiple exchange rates and introduced a “willing-buyer, willing-seller” system. This made the market more transparent and reduced manipulation.

The bank also cleared old foreign exchange debts owed to sectors like aviation and manufacturing.

This helped restore trust in the economy. By late 2025, the gap between official and black-market exchange rates dropped to less than 2%.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves also improved, rising to $46.7 billion by November 2025  the highest level in almost seven years.

This was due to better foreign exchange inflows, stronger exports, and renewed investor confidence.

The International Monetary Fund praised these reforms, saying they improved the foreign exchange market and made pricing more reliable.

Inflation, which peaked at 34.8% in December 2024, dropped to 15.1% by January 2026. The CBN achieved this by raising interest rates and carefully managing the economy.

The bank also improved its internal operations. It stopped some programmes that were increasing money supply and causing inflation.

It strengthened its systems, improved compliance, and introduced digital tools, including artificial intelligence.

In the banking sector, the CBN introduced new rules requiring banks to increase their capital. This is expected to make the financial system stronger.

Nigeria also improved its fight against financial crimes. In 2025, the country was removed from a global watchlist for money laundering after improving its monitoring systems.

These reforms boosted Nigeria’s global image. Credit rating agencies upgraded the country’s outlook, and investor interest increased. Nigeria’s 2025 Eurobond attracted more than five times the expected subscriptions.

Although progress has been made, the CBN says challenges still remain, such as maintaining low inflation and completing banking reforms.

Overall, the award shows that Nigeria is regaining its position in the global financial system, thanks to strong policies and reforms by the CBN.


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Providus Bank Fully Meets CBN Capital Requirement, Sets Record Straight

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Providus Bank Limited has dispelled media reports over its compliance with regulatory capital requirements, confirming that it has successfully met and exceeded the recapitalisation threshold set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In a statement, the bank clarified that under the CBN’s recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are mandated to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion, stating unequivocally that it achieved this benchmark as far back as January 2025 and has since strengthened its financial standing.

According to the bank, its current paid-up capital stands at N65 billion, significantly above the regulatory minimum, underscoring its resilience and commitment to sound financial management.

The bank noted that this strong capital position places it in good stead to support its growth strategy and continue delivering value to customers and stakeholders.

Providus Bank emphasied that any suggestion implying non-compliance with the CBN’s recapitalisation requirement was inaccurate and does not reflect its current regulatory status.

The bank reiterated its dedication to maintaining robust governance standards and aligning with all prudential guidelines set by the apex regulator.

It explained: Providus Bank Limited notes recent media reports regarding the recapitalisation status of certain banks and considers it important to provide factual clarification as it relates to the Bank. Under the CBN recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are required to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion.

“Providus Bank confirms that it had met its capital requirement since January 2025 and currently has a capital base of N65 billiom which is in excess of its capital requirement.

Accordingly, any suggestion that Providus Bank has not met the applicable recapitalisation threshold is not consistent with its current regulatory standing.”

The Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had, on March 28, 2024, announced a two-year bank recapitalisation exercise which commenced on April 1, 2024.

The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. The upward capital revision is expected to ensure that Nigerian banks have the capacity to take on bigger risks and stay afloat amid both domestic and external shocks.

Specifically, the recapitalisation exercise requires a minimum capital of N500 billion, N200 billion, and N50 billion for commercial banks with international, national, and regional licences, respectively.


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UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80Bn Trade Finance Gap

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United Bank for Africa (UK) Limited (“UBA UK”) and British International Investment plc (“BII”), the UK’s development finance institution and impact investor, today announced that they have signed a letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities. The proposed initiative aims to expand access to trade and working capital facilities for businesses operating across Africa.

UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80bn Trade Finance Gap

L-r: West Africa Director and Head of Office Africa Coverage, BII West Africa, Benson Adenuga; Managing Director and Head of Africa, BII, Chris Chijiutomi; Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, Loknath Mishra; Group Managing Director, United Bank for Africa (Plc) during the signing of letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities.

Access to trade finance remains one of the most significant structural constraints on African trade. Businesses – particularly small and medium-sized enterprises – are frequently unable to secure letters of credit, guarantees, and supply chain finance on commercially viable terms, limiting their capacity to export and import competitively. This trade finance gap is estimated by the African Development Bank to be over USD 80 billion annually.

To help close this gap, UBA UK, the London subsidiary of UBA Group, Africa’s Global Bank, will leverage its deep relationships across the Group’s 20-country African network to originate and structure trade finance transactions. While BII, with a mandate to support productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth across Africa, can support transactions that might otherwise fall outside conventional commercial appetite.

Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, said: “The signing of this letter with BII represents a landmark moment for UBA UK and for the UBA Group’s global ambitions. As the Group’s hub for Trade Operations, UBA UK is uniquely positioned to connect African businesses with the international financial system.

“Working alongside BII, we can extend that capability further — mobilising capital where it matters most and helping to close the trade finance gap that holds back so much African potential.”

Chris Chijiuitomi, Managing Director and Head of Africa, said: “British International Investment is committed to catalysing private sector growth across Africa, and trade finance is a critical enabler of that growth.

“We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with UBA Group, whose pan-African network and deep institutional relationships can help advance our ambition to expand access to trade and working capital finance, particularly in frontier markets.”

The announcement builds on growing momentum around intra-African trade facilitated by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which entered into force in 2021 and represents one of the world’s most ignificant trade integration initiatives.

Both institutions have identified the operationalisation of AfCFTA as a priority catalyst for a trade finance facility, with UBA UK’s network across major AfCFTA economies offering a basis for supporting businesses navigating the emerging continental market.

This also complements the UK Government’s broader engagement with African economic development, including commitments made at the UK-Africa Investment Summit, and reinforces the City of London’s role as a leading international finance centre for Africa-focused capital mobilisation.

Future cooperation remains subject to further assessment, due diligence and the completion of internal approvals by both parties.


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