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Nigeria inflation rises as Presidential elections loom

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, 

Repeated signs of rising inflationary pressures in Nigeria could fuel speculation over the Central Bank of Nigeria raising interest rates in a bid to tame consumer prices.

Nigeria’s inflation jumped to a seven-month high of 11.44% in December due to rising food prices. With inflation building momentum and seen accelerating further due to increased government spending ahead of the presidential elections, the Naira could be in trouble.

Markets mixed ahead of US earnings

The mood across financial markets was mixed today as concerns over China’s economic outlook, Brexit developments and a prolonged US government shutdown weighed on risk sentiment.

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Anticipation is set to mount as market players prepare for the US earnings season with numbers from Netflix expected this afternoon. Although earnings kicked off on a positive note as upbeat US bank earnings boosted investor confidence, it may be too early for any celebrations. It must be kept in mind that Apple has already issued Q1 profit warnings. Markets will be looking for signs of other multinational US companies impacted by trade tensions – namely in the technology and agriculture sector.

Sectors that could surprise markets are consumer staples, healthcare and utilities as they tend to perform well in times of uncertainty. Will this be a great earnings season? Confirmation is still needed from other key sectors to evaluate how consumers are behaving.

There is a strong possibility that the US government shutdown will negatively impact results and outlook for some companies. Corporations that obtain a significant portion of their revenue from government business could be punished by delays in payment and contracts. Although yesterday was somewhat positive for stocks, investors should remain diligent and alert. With the fundamental drivers weighing on global sentiment present, stock markets remain vulnerable to downside shocks. Geopolitical risk factors such as trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty, political risk in Europe and instability in Washington will continue draining investor confidence. Global growth fears and growing concerns over China’s economic outlook are likely to promote risk aversion – ultimately reducing appetite for global equities.

Sterling searches for next catalyst

The British Pound was clearly unfazed yesterday evening despite Theresa May narrowly surviving a vote of no-confidence.

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The anticlimactic price action suggests that this outcome was already heavily factored in. With Theresa May racing against the clock to present an alternative Brexit deal to Parliament, the Pound seems to be on standby mode. If May is unable to secure further concessions on the Irish border backstop from the European Union, expectations are poised to mount over a second referendum being in the cards. With Sterling’s outlook dictated by Brexit developments and political situation at home, traders should brace for volatility ahead.

Focusing on the technical picture, the GBPUSD’s direction remains influenced by Brexit newsflow. There needs to be a break above 1.2920 to open a path higher towards the psychological 1.3000 level.

Commodity markets – Gold

It has been a lackluster trading week for Gold thus far with the metal bouncing within a modest range. Price action suggests that the metal is searching for a fresh catalyst to make the next major move. Resistance can be found around $1,296 and support at $1,280. A breakout above $1,296 will open the gates towards the psychological $1,300 level and beyond. On the other hand, weakness below $1,280 is seen triggering a decline back towards $1,272

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FG Taps Indian, Chinese Technologies to Tackle $2.5Bn in Food Losses

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Federal government recently received a proposed protocol agreement from India that could pave the way for agricultural cooperation between the two countries.

FG Taps Indian, Chinese Technologies to Tackle $2.5Bn in Food Losses

Abishek Singh, India’s high commissioner to Nigeria, announced the proposal recently n Abuja during the India-Nigeria Business Forum on Agriculture and Allied Sectors.

New Delhi’s proposed cooperation would support Nigeria’s food security efforts, with the goal of reducing post-harvest losses by nearly 50% and expanding agricultural processing.

It would also cover technology transfers, mechanization, financing solutions and capacity building.

Abuja has opened similar discussions with China.

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Only recently, Mukhtar Muhammed, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology, said Nigeria wanted to deepen scientific and technological cooperation with Beijing in agriculture.

The discussions with China have focused on developing low-cost, solar-powered cold storage facilities and transferring food-processing technologies.

Nigeria, also wants to work with Chinese research institutes to develop infrastructure that can improve the preservation of perishable products.

Nigeria’s outreach to its Asian partners addresses a major problem for the agricultural sector.

The Bank of Agriculture (BoA) estimates that Africa’s most populous country loses 30 million to 40 million tons of food each year before it reaches consumers.

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Those losses are worth an average of about N3.5 trillion ($2.5 billion) annually, according to data the institution presented at a workshop in Kaduna in July 2026.

Perishable products are particularly vulnerable, according to local media reports, with fruits and vegetables accounting for an estimated 40% to 50% of total losses.

The government has already launched its own response to the problem.

 

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Fake Agency: ICPC Indicts NITDA, Others over Inadequate Due Diligence

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Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) indicted the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) and other ministries over administrative lapses that allowed the fictitious Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council (PFIPC) to operate.

Fake Agency: ICPC Indicts NITDA, Others over Inadequate Due Diligence

Musa Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, stated that NITDA, alongside the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (OSGF), the Budget Office, and other bodies, failed to carry out adequate due diligence and standard operating procedures.

ICPC said however,  clarified that the findings pointed to severe internal control weaknesses and administrative negligence rather than active official complicity by NITDA and the other affected agencies.

The briefing followed a 30-day investigation ordered by the president on July 7 into allegations surrounding the purported presidential council.

The commission also cleared the presidency and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of any wrongdoing but blamed institutional lapses in several ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs).

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Aliyu said investigators established that Adeniyi Adeyemi, the director-general, was never appointed by the federal government and that the PFIPC had no legal existence.

“As you may recall, on the 7th of July, Mr. President directed the ICPC to conduct an investigation into the fake Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council and submit a report within 30 days,” he said.

“Today, exactly within the stipulated period, we have submitted an interim report based on our interactions with all stakeholders involved.”

According to Aliyu, Tinubu directed the commission to make its findings public in the interest of transparency and accountability.

He said the investigation found that Adeyemi’s purported appointment letter was forged.

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“It has been established that Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was never appointed by the Federal Government or any authority whatsoever,” he said.

“The Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council, which sometimes they called the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council, was never established by any law, executive order or any valid instrument of government.

“The appointment letter presented by Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was completely forged alongside similar documents used to perpetuate the illegal activities of the fake agency.”

Aliyu stated that a purported government gazette used to legitimise the organisation was also fabricated.

“If you recall, there was a gazette which he used to support the fake agency. That gazette is an illegal document that never passed through the processes prescribed by law,” he stated.

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“Our investigation found that the office used by the fake agency was the office of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council. The office was broken into and access was gained illegally. That was how he was able to operate from there.”

Aliyu also revealed that investigators uncovered two additional fictitious government agencies allegedly created by the suspect — the FCT Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) and the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency/Public-Private Partnership (FIPA-PPP).

According to him, fake legislative instruments were used to create the agencies and open bank accounts.

Despite the elaborate scheme, the ICPC chairman said the investigation found no evidence that federal government funds were disbursed to the fake council.

“Our investigation found that no funds of the federal government were approved or disbursed to the fake PFIPC,” he said.

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“We also discovered no weaknesses in the systems of the State House or the Central Bank of Nigeria during our investigation. The fake appointment letter did not originate from the presidency.

“Our investigation found that some public officers failed to carry out due diligence and failed to comply with standard operating procedures in their ministries and departments. That gave him the opportunity to carry out these illegal acts.”

 

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Tax Reform Built on Taxing Prosperity, Not Poverty– Adedeji

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Nigeria tax system is build on taxing prosperity not poverty, according to Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

Tax Reform Built on Taxing Prosperity, Not Poverty– Adedeji

Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service

Adedeji, also  dismissed the insinuation that the government’s tax reform is aimed at extracting money from Nigerians .

He said the essence of reform is creating an economic environment where individuals and businesses can prosper.

Dr. Adedeji made the clarifications on Sunday night while appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today, where he defended the administration’s tax reforms and addressed concerns over rising government revenue amid the economic hardship facing Nigerians.

According to him, the government’s objective is to tax the fruits of investment rather than the investment itself.

“For us at Nigeria Tax, we are not there to extract. Our focus is not revenue. I don’t want to tax poverty. I’m to tax the fruit, not the seed, and I’m to tax the return, not investment.”

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Adedeji explained that the government would generate more revenue as businesses became more profitable, without necessarily increasing the tax burden on individuals and companies.

He said a company that made N100 in profit could generate N30 in tax revenue for the government, but if its profit increased to N200 or N300, government revenue would rise accordingly.

“So, if I want to make more, I must work for you to make more. And that is why it is in the best interest of us in Nigeria Revenue Service that businesses are doing well, individuals are doing well,” he said.

He said the approach was consistent with President Bola Tinubu’s economic agenda, which seeks to remove barriers to investment and create a more conducive environment for businesses to operate and expand.

Adedeji cited reforms in the electricity sector as part of the government’s efforts to stimulate economic activity.

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He noted that the Electricity Act had devolved powers to state governments to generate, transmit and distribute electricity, arguing that improved power supply would boost production and productivity across the economy.

 

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