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Nigerian Economy expands in 2018; Presidential elections loom

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By Jameel Ahmad, FXTM Global Head of Currency Strategy and Market Research,

Confidence over the health of the Nigerian economy was slightly elevated this morning after official reports showed that economic growth expanded in 2018.

Gross domestic product in Africa’s largest economy rose 1.93% last year, compared to the tepid 0.8% in 2017. With fourth quarter economic growth also printing stronger than expected at 2.38% in real terms YoY, Nigeria seems to be gaining economic momentum. However, with the nation’s fortunes still closely linked to Oil markets, growth could be threatened this year if Oil prices continue to depreciate.

It will be a monumental week for the Nigerian markets as presidential elections loom. Although the Naira was stable against the Dollar yesterday at N358 in the parallel markets, there could be some volatility this week due to election uncertainty.

USD rally takes investors by surprise; but will the winning streak be able to continue?

A key overhang for the Dollar may be clearing up after US lawmakers announced they have a deal in principle to avoid another US government shutdown this weekend. However, President Trump’s approval is still required before the spending bill can go through.

At the time of writing, the DXY is holding marginally close to 97, having posted gains over the last eight consecutive days – its longest winning streak since 2016. This recent run of form certainly goes against initial expectations for muted Dollar strength this year given the Federal Reserve’s recent U-turn on US monetary policy.

There is a likelihood that central bank policy in the form of the Federal Reserve is not the catalyst behind the USD rally. It probably doesn’t have anything to do with the U-turn from the Fed a few weeks ago either. Investors are possibly thinking that “no news” when it comes to the ongoing US-China trade talks is not necessarily an example of “no news is good news” for this environment of trade tensions. The threat can’t be understated that the United States will pull the trigger on extra trade tariffs on Chinese goods at the beginning of March. We saw throughout the second half of 2018 that market anxiety over trade tensions pushed the Dollar higher against its global counterparts, and it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if recent history repeats itself – if there is another escalation in the trade tariff world.  

According to the Bloomberg terminal, spot returns for G10 currencies against the stronger Dollar since January 30 have experienced a clear sea of red in favour of the USD. This is following the euphoria that was created when Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled the need for “patience” when it comes to the potential of hiking interest rates in the United States.

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(Source: Bloomberg Terminal)

What else is driving the Dollar train higher?

Another perspective on what could potentially be driving the USD higher is the lure towards the Greenback being amplified by ongoing praises for the US economy. At the same time, it has become a strain to market headlines that counterparts to the United States throughout a range of developed and emerging markets are highlighting downside risks to their respective economies.

Those who are fatigued from yo-yo trade headlines in the market might be inclined instead to align their mindset to the return of economic and central bank divergence between the United States, and pretty much everywhere else. This ultimately supports the prospects of a stronger Dollar. 

What data to look out for next and what could this mean to interest rate policy?

Markets will look to this week’s US January CPI reading as the next test of the Fed’s data dependence. Following that, attention will turn to next week’s release of the FOMC January 30 meeting minutes for potentially further clues on what could have encouraged the Fed’s recent pivot.

The current stance on US interest rate policy is expected to, in turn, allow other central banks to take a pause on tightening monetary policy. With central banks worldwide either standing pat or moving towards another round of a potential easing bias, investors may have less impetus to part with their current darling, the Dollar.

The dovish outlook on global monetary policy, coupled with further positive indicators of US economic strength, should support the Dollar’s attractiveness and this could mean DXY returning to its recent high of 97.54 achieved in November 2018.

Remember a positive conclusion to trade talks would be seen as Dollar-negative

However, this isn’t to say that demand for the Greenback will continue unabated in the near term. Traders should not be looking at the USD as one-way traffic going higher up the charts by any means.

While the US government shutdown may have been averted, markets are also having to contend with this week’s crucial talks in Beijing surrounding US-China trade tensions. Both countries are nearing the end of the 90-day truce and in the event that President Trump pushes through with hiking tariffs on Chinese goods come March 2, that will be seen as a potential trigger to give the US dollar another leg up.

Although given the political and economic pressures that are at risk of creating headwinds to the world’s two largest economies, markets are holding out hope that a deal would be struck sooner rather than later. This would be viewed in the market as a potentially Dollar-negative outcome.

Should key deals be approved in Washington (to fund the US government) and in Beijing (to avert a tariff hike), these will be viewed as the catalysts for risk-on sentiment to return to the fore. Meaning that this would be a significant driver behind potentially higher global equity markets, improved demand for emerging markets and commodities like Oil.

It would however be seen as a risk to the relentless Dollar rally that has taken place over February.

Where do Emerging Markets stand in the currency environment?

Yet amidst this winning streak against G10 currencies, the US dollar has seen mixed results against emerging-market currencies during the same period.

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(Source: Bloomberg Terminal)

Some of these EM currencies that posted gains against the Greenback are coming back from oversold positions last year, and are supported by factors such as resilient domestic economic fundamentals, foreign fund inflows, and rebounding commodity prices.

However, EM currencies are still exposed to major events that can sway global risk sentiment, such as US-China trade tensions, Brexit uncertainties, and slowing global growth. China’s moderating economic conditions remain a major overhang for the global growth narrative, and the slowdown may be felt in many emerging economies via the trade and FX channels.

Ultimately, EM currencies will likely be dictated primarily by the broader US dollar theme, and whether the Greenback can build on its one percent climb so far in 2019.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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E-Financial

SEC Bars Dangote Refinery IPO Adverts

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has banned the marketing and promotion of a purported initial public offering (IPO) by Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE,.

SEC Bars Dangote Refinery IPO Adverts

It further warned that no application for such offer has been filed with or approved by the regulator.

In a public notice issued on Tuesday, the Commission said it had become aware of advertisements, flyers, digital banners and targeted electronic mails circulating on social media platforms and investment channels concerning a supposed securities offering by the refinery.

The SEC expressed concern over the involvement of some Registered Capital Market Operators (CMOs) in what it described as an “unwholesome and manipulative exercise” of actively soliciting advance subscriptions for an offering that has not been presented to the Commission.

According to the regulator, “No application for the registration of an IPO or public offer of shares of the Refinery has been filed with or approved by the Commission.”

The Commission added that the ongoing pre-marketing activities were “capable of misleading investors, distorting market expectations, creating information asymmetry and generally undermining the integrity of the capital market.”

It further stated that the marketing campaign and invitations to “create accounts”, “pre-fund,” or “secure guaranteed allocations” amounted to market manipulation and constituted “serious violation of the Investments and Securities Act.”

Consequently, the Commission directed all Registered Capital Market Operators, particularly stockbrokers and digital platform promoters, to immediately stop all promotional activities.

The SEC ordered them to “cease with immediate effect from publishing, reposting, or distributing any promotional material, flyer, or commentary relating to the acquisition or allocation of shares in the Refinery.”

It also directed operators to “remove or take down all such unauthorized marketing materials from websites, social media handles (including X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook etc.), and messaging groups within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”

The regulator further instructed operators to desist from accepting deposits, commitments, account openings or expressions of interest from investors for the purported public offering and to “reverse and refund all funds already collected in connection with this purported offering to clients within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”

The Commission warned that defaulters would face sanctions as non-compliance would attract penalties under the Investments and Securities Act, 2025 and the SEC Rules and Regulations.

Advising investors to exercise caution, the SEC said members of the public should “rely only on formal, official pronouncements issued directly by the Commission through its official channels.”

It warned that “all such high-pressure marketing tactics, or transfer of funds to any operator for ‘pre-IPO’ placement should be ignored as they did not receive the Commission’s approval.”

The Commission assured that if it eventually receives and clears an application for a public offering by the refinery, an approved prospectus would be made available to investors in line with the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.


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Fidelity Bank Trains Exporters on AfCFTA Opportunities, Non-oil Export Growth

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Fidelity Bank Plc has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic diversification agenda through capacity building and export development, as it hosted the 19th edition of its Export Management Programme (EMP) at the Lagos Business School (LBS), Ajah, Lagos recently.

Fidelity Bank Trains Exporters on AfCFTA Opportunities, Non-oil Export Growth

L-R: Relationship Manager, Fidelity Bank Plc, Murtala Muhammed Road Branch, Kano, Victor Ngwu; Export Management Programme (EMP 19) participant, Abayomi Adewuyi; Facilitator, Gemma Ejiofor; Senior Fellow and Head, Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Mgt., Lagos Business School (LBS), Dr. Uche Attoh; Director, Export Management Programme, LBS, Prof. Frank Ojadi; and Team Lead, Export & Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Emmanuel Nwalor, during the closing ceremony of the 19th edition of the Fidelity Bank Export Management Programme (EMP 19) held recently at Lagos Business School, Lagos.

Tagged EMP 19, the programme is an intense hands-on export management workshop, organized as a partnership between Fidelity Bank, Lagos Business School and Nigerian Export Promotion Council, brought together entrepreneurs, professionals, regulators and aspiring exporters for intensive training designed to equip participants with the knowledge, skills and networks required to compete successfully in international markets.

Speaking at the closing ceremony, Divisional Head, Export and Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Isaiah Ndukwe, said the bank remains focused on empowering Nigerian businesses to leverage emerging opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and expand the country’s non-oil export base.

“At Fidelity Bank, we recognize that capacity building is critical to unlocking Nigeria’s export potential. Through the Export Management Programme, we are equipping businesses with practical knowledge, market intelligence and strategic insights required to compete successfully in regional and global markets,” Ndukwe said.

“As AfCFTA continues to open new frontiers for trade across Africa, our goal is to ensure that Nigerian exporters are adequately prepared to seize these opportunities and contribute meaningfully to the country’s economic diversification agenda,” he added.

Nwalor further noted that the bank remains committed to providing exporters with the financial solutions, advisory support and strategic partnerships necessary to expand their businesses beyond Nigeria’s borders.

Also speaking, Director of the Export Management Programme at Lagos Business School, Professor Frank Ojadi, highlighted the need for continuous capacity development as international trade continues to evolve.

“The export market is always evolving. There are changes in policies, improvements in processes and increasing interest from businesses. These developments make it necessary to build the capabilities of our people to compete effectively in export markets,” Ojadi said.

According to him, this year’s programme placed significant emphasis on AfCFTA, exposing participants to both the fundamentals and practical aspects of leveraging the continental trade agreement for business growth.

“Many businesses are still learning how to take advantage of AfCFTA. Through this programme, participants gained practical insights that will help them navigate opportunities across African markets and beyond,” he added.

In his remarks, Senior Fellow and Head of the Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Management at Lagos Business School, Dr. Uche Attoh, emphasized the importance of negotiation and dispute resolution skills in international trade.

“It is negotiation that enables businesses to establish deals, while arbitration helps resolve disputes when they arise. Once participants understand the principles, they can apply them in any business environment, whether in Africa, Europe or America,” Attoh said.

Participants described the programme as impactful and transformative. Assistant Director at the Nigerian Shippers’ Council, Obinna Oforum, said the training strengthened his resolve to become an “export champion”.

Similarly, Chief Superintendent of Customs, Orji Samuel, praised Fidelity Bank and Lagos Business School for subsidizing the programme and creating an enabling platform for practical learning, noting that the knowledge gained would help participants navigate export challenges and unlock new business opportunities.

The Export Management Programme is Fidelity Bank’s flagship capacity-building initiative aimed at developing export-ready businesses and professionals capable of driving Nigeria’s non-oil export growth. Through strategic partnerships and targeted interventions, the Bank continues to play a leading role in supporting businesses, facilitating trade and creating pathways for sustainable economic development.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving more than 10 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.

The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international awards, including the 2025 Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) Innovation Award for MSME support; Best Retail and SME Bank Award from Independent Newspapers; Best Bank for Export & Trade Finance and Most Innovative Bank of the Year at the 2025 BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; and Nigeria’s Best Private Bank at the 2025 Euromoney Awards. The Bank also received the inaugural Most Improved Commercial Bank of the Year award by Nairametrics, the SME Bank of the Year award by NewsDirect, and the Straight-Through Processing (STP) Excellence Award by Citi Group, in addition to recognition by Global Brands Magazine for Excellence in Community Empowerment.


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FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

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Federal government has engaged the banking community in Abuja to deepen understanding of the Revenue Optimisation Assurance Platform (RevOp), a digital platform designed to improve revenue generation, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability.

FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

Mr Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, told RevOp sensitisation workshop, organised by the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) in Abuja, that RevOp is a centralised digital revenue collection and monitoring system designed to modernise Nigeria’s public finance operations.

Oyedele, who was represented by Mr Mohammed Danjuma, permanent secretary, Special Duties, explained that the platform provides a real-time, automated framework for all federal agencies to raise, collect, and report revenues, replacing fragmented manual processes that have plagued revenue collection for decades.

He reiterated the government’s commitment to improving revenue generation, enhancing transparency, strengthening accountability, and leveraging technology to drive efficiency across public financial management processes.

“RevOp serves as a critical tool in the government’s drive to improve revenue administration, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability,” he said.

According to him, a lot had been achieved since the inception and implementation of the platform and that the successes were not without challenges.

He identified one of the challenges as limited awareness among some banking channels and frontline officers.

The minister explained that some banking channels are not familiar with RevOp, its purpose, or the procedural requirements to support transaction processes through the platform.

“These challenges, though operational in nature, have significant impacts on the overall customer experience and effectiveness of the initiative. This is precisely why we are here today,” he said.

The minister said that the success of RevOp would not be achieved by government alone, adding that it required strong collaboration among all stakeholders, particularly banking institutions, which serve as critical collection and service channels.

He explained that the banking institutions’ role extends beyond merely collecting or processing payments to ensuring that government revenue collection processes are efficient and user-friendly.

“Today’s sensitisation session has, therefore, been organised to deepen understanding of the platform, clarify operational processes, address concerns, and establish stronger communication channels between the project team and participating financial institutions.

“We expect that the knowledge shared here will cascade throughout your respective organisations, especially to branch operations, customer service personnel, and tellers who interact directly with customers on a daily basis,” he said.

Oyedele said the ministry remained committed to working closely with all stakeholders to address identified challenges and continuously improve the platform.

In his speech, Dr. Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, accountant general of the Federation, said that the revenue optimisation portal had been adopted as a strategic platform for improving revenue collection, reconciliation, monitoring, and reporting.

Ogunjimi, represented by Mr Felix Ogundairo, his chief of staff, explained that the platform was designed to provide greater visibility into government revenue, eliminate leakages, improve compliance, and support informed decision-making through real-time data and analytics.

“This engagement, therefore, provides an opportunity for us to discuss implementation challenges, align expectations, clarify operational issues, and strengthen the partnership necessary for the success of the application,” he said.

In his remarks, Mr. Idris Dosunmu, RevOp Product Manager, explained that the platform unifies billing, payment and settlement under one platform and that every transaction passes through secure connections, ensuring complete transparency from bill creation to treasury receipt.

“This will ensure that every penny due to the federal government goes into the coffers of the government,” Dosunmu said.


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