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Nigerian Equity Markets Stabilize; Naira Steadies

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

The mood across equity markets in Nigeria has improved this week with the All-Share Index rising by roughly 0.14% yesterday. With the presidential elections over, investors are now redirecting their attention back towards Nigeria’s economy and what can be done to promote economic growth this year. Sentiment towards the Nigerian Naira also showed some improvement as the local currencies slightly gained against the Dollar on the parallel markets. This show of stability and recovery across Nigerian stock markets is likely to continue ahead of the parliamentary elections this weekend.

Markets on standby in absence of fresh catalyst

Asian stocks traded mixed this morning as investors adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach due to a lack of fresh catalysts.

With much of the hope of a US-China trade deal priced in and the risks of a no-deal Brexit by March 29 heavily priced out, a new theme needs to be brought to the table. Although geopolitical risks continue to linger in the background, they appear contained for now while ongoing concerns over global growth are slowly becoming old news.

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The movements across global equity markets are likely to be limited until investors are offered some real clarity on the progress of US-China trade talks. With a high degree of optimism over trade talks already baked into the markets, many will be left empty-handed if the final deal fails to mirror the heightened expectations. Such a development would impact appetite for riskier assets, consequently punishing equities across the globe.

While US equities have erased the losses seen since December, this year-to-date rally appears to be running on fumes. Are equity bulls running out of steam? Time will tell.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

It is shaping up to be another rough trading week for the British Pound thanks to growing concerns over Prime Minister Theresa May’s ability to pass her Brexit deal through Parliament by March 12.

Reports of the talks between European Union and British negotiators ending in an impasse worsened matters for the British Pound, with the GBPUSD trading around 1.3134 as of writing. While a lack of progress or clarity on Brexit talks will most likely punish the Pound this week, the downside will be limited by speculation over the government extending Article 50 to prevent a no-deal outcome. With uncertainty still a major theme when dealing with Brexit, the Pound’s medium to longer term outlook remains open to question.

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In regards to the technical picture, the GBPUSD is under pressure on the daily charts. The breakdown below 1.3200 at the start of the week has provided bears with enough ammunition to attack 1.3080. A breach below 1.3080 will open a path back towards the psychological 1.3000 level.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold prices edged higher this morning after rebounding from a more than five-week low yesterday thanks to a pause in the stock market rally.

The absence of a fresh market catalyst has the potential to send investors back towards Gold which tends to perform well in times of uncertainty. While the near-term outlook for the precious metal points to further downside amid Dollar strength and US-China trade optimism, the medium to longer term outlook remains in favour of bulls. With geopolitical risks, concerns over global growth, and expectations over the Fed taking a break on monetary tightening this year being dominant market themes, Gold still has upside potential. Focusing on the technical perspective, the yellow metal is seen depreciating towards $1278 as long as the psychological $1300 level proves to be a reliable resistance. A breakout back above this psychological level will bring bulls back into the game.

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E-Financial

CBN to Monitor Every Dollar with FXBT, Forex Tracker

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has launched a new digital platform to track every foreign exchange transaction involving Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators, marking a major step in its efforts to improve transparency and strengthen oversight of the country’s retail forex market.

CBN to Monitor Every Dollar with FXBT, Forex Tracker

In an operational guidance issued on July 15 to authorised dealer banks and licensed BDCs, the apex bank introduced the FX BDC Purchase Tracker (FXBT), a centralised electronic portal designed to monitor foreign exchange purchases by BDCs from the point of request through approval, settlement and eventual sale.

The CBN said the portal will require BDCs to upload real-time or same-day data on all FX purchases made through the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), giving the regulator transaction-level visibility across the retail FX market.

According to the bank, the platform is designed to prevent abuse by making it easier to detect operators attempting to exceed the weekly purchase limit of $150,000, obtain allocations from multiple banks or divert foreign exchange outside approved channels.

The launch of the tracker builds on the CBN’s February policy that restored direct access for licensed BDCs to purchase foreign exchange from authorised dealer banks through the NFEM. While that policy improved access to official FX, the new platform provides the digital infrastructure to monitor how the funds are used.

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Under the new framework, authorised dealer banks must conduct comprehensive Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and customer due diligence checks before selling foreign exchange to any BDC.

The new guideline also says banks must verify beneficial ownership information, retain incorporation documents and carry out enhanced due diligence for higher-risk operators.

Any BDC that fails these checks will not be allowed to access official foreign exchange.

The guidance also requires banks to acknowledge BDC purchase requests submitted through the FXBT portal within two business hours and immediately notify operators whether their requests have been approved or rejected.

To discourage speculation, the CBN directed that any forex purchased through the NFEM but left unused must be sold back into the market within 24 hours after the expiration of the utilisation period.

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BDCs are also required to disclose any previously unused balances when submitting fresh requests.

In addition, all foreign exchange transactions between banks, BDCs and customers must be settled through registered accounts with licensed financial institutions.

Third-party transactions are prohibited, and any transfer outside a BDC’s registered settlement account will be treated as a regulatory violation.

The apex bank also said all authorised dealer banks and licensed BDCs are expected to comply with the new regulatory guidance and operational procedures with immediate effect.

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E-Financial

FG Moves to Crack Down on Crypto Fraud with Virtual Assets Executive Order

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President Bola Tinubu has signed the Presidential Executive Order on Virtual Assets Coordination, 2026, introducing a coordinated framework to regulate Nigeria’s fast-growing virtual assets sector, combat fraud and strengthen oversight without creating a new regulatory agency.

The Executive Order, which took immediate effect, establishes a Virtual Asset Council to harmonise the activities of financial, revenue and capital market regulators while promoting responsible innovation in the digital economy.

According to a statement issued on Friday by the President’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the order was signed pursuant to Section 5 of the 1999 Constitution to address growing regulatory gaps as virtual assets increasingly blur the boundaries between currencies, commodities, securities and payment systems.

The Presidency said the fragmented regulatory landscape had exposed Nigeria to risks including money laundering, terrorism financing, cybercrime, data privacy breaches, fraud and significant revenue losses, with fraudulent operators exploiting loopholes to defraud unsuspecting investors.

Under the new framework, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will chair the Virtual Asset Council, while the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will serve as vice-chairmen. Other members include the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) and the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA).

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The Council will coordinate policy, strengthen collaboration among regulators and work with the Attorney-General of the Federation to develop a harmonised legal framework that aligns virtual asset regulation with Nigeria’s economic, security and social priorities.

The Executive Order also establishes a Virtual Asset Office, domiciled at the CBN, to serve as the Council’s operational secretariat. The office will coordinate information sharing, applications and reporting among participating agencies through an integrated supervisory technology platform while allowing each institution to retain control over its data.

The Presidency stressed that the order does not establish a new regulator or transfer statutory powers from existing agencies. Instead, it creates a coordination mechanism under which regulatory responsibilities will depend on the nature of the virtual asset or activity involved.

Under the arrangement, the SEC will continue to regulate virtual assets classified as securities, while the CBN will oversee payment, settlement, custody and other non-security virtual asset services. The Council will resolve jurisdictional disputes where responsibilities overlap.

As part of the reforms, the CBN will launch a regulatory sandbox that will allow eligible firms to test virtual asset products and blockchain-based solutions under close regulatory supervision before they are introduced into the wider market.

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Similarly, the Nigeria Revenue Service will issue a dedicated tax policy for the virtual assets sector to clarify tax obligations, improve voluntary compliance and ensure the rapidly expanding industry contributes fairly to government revenue.

The Federal Government is also finalising a comprehensive Virtual Assets White Paper, which will outline Nigeria’s long-term policy direction for the sector.

President Tinubu directed the newly established Council to produce a Harmonised Implementation Framework within 30 days to facilitate the immediate implementation of the Executive Order and strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s digital economy.

 

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World Bank Says 79 Percent of Nigerians Still Trapped in Poverty despite Reforms

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World Bank has said that despite nearly three years of economic reforms by the federal government, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty.

World Bank Says 79 Percent of Nigerians Still Trapped in Poverty despite Reforms

The bank stated this in its newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria, covering 2026 to 2032, and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic.

The report which highlighted the country’s deepening social and economic challenges, indicated that while recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence, the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians.

The World Bank noted that the seven-year strategy seeks to support Nigeria’s ambition to create more and better jobs through private-sector-led growth while accelerating poverty reduction.

According to the Streamlined Country Diagnostic document, “Thirty-three per cent of its population is ultra-poor (food insecure by age-weighted caloric intake), 61 per cent is below the poverty line, and 79 per cent is near poor (below the poverty line or vulnerable to falling back into poverty).”

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The World Bank pointed out that Nigeria’s economic performance over the past decade had been constrained by structural rigidities, policy missteps, dependence on crude oil, and repeated external shocks, leaving millions trapped in poverty.

It stated that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country.

The report also noted that more than 86 million Nigerians remain without electricity, while three to four million young people enter the labour market every year with limited employment opportunities.

It added that sustaining macro-fiscal and structural reforms would be critical to reducing inflation, expanding fiscal space and ensuring that recent economic stabilisation translates into improved living standards.

According to the report, the reforms have begun to improve macroeconomic indicators.

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Economic growth increased from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, foreign reserves exceeded $42bn, fiscal deficits narrowed, and investor confidence strengthened.

However, it warned that high inflation continues to undermine household incomes. The report stated, “High inflation, though declining, continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the poor. Social protection efforts to support the most vulnerable have been slow and uneven in their rollout.”

The World Bank added that although the reforms helped Nigeria avoid a more severe economic crisis, institutional weaknesses, weak policy coordination, and inadequate budget transparency continue to pose significant risks.

It warned that sustained reform implementation, backed by deeper structural measures, would be required to improve Nigeria’s medium-term economic outlook.

Under the new Country Partnership Framework, the World Bank said job creation would serve as the primary pathway for reducing poverty.

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The report explained that international experience from countries such as India, Indonesia, and China shows that moving people into productive employment remains the most effective tool for reducing poverty.

To achieve this, the framework will prioritise labour-intensive sectors, particularly agriculture and micro, small and medium enterprises, while addressing structural deficiencies in electricity, digital infrastructure, education and healthcare.

 

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