E-Financial
Market sentiment influenced by trade developments; Nigerian inflation rebounds in April

By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,
It is coincidental how Nigeria’s inflation rate accelerated in April, only a month after the central bank unexpectedly reduced interest rates for the first time in more than three years.
With the impacts of the rate cut in March having a delayed effect and unlikely to be reflected any time soon, the 13.7% rise in inflation was based around rising food prices. Should inflation return with a vengeance in the coming months, businesses and consumers may feel the heat – ultimately impacting economic growth. All in all, it remains too early to come to any meaningful conclusion over whether inflation is set to rise, given how this has been the first increase in three months.
The next major risk event for the Nigerian economy will be the GDP report for Q1 which should offer critical insight into the health of the nation during the first quarter of 2019. A figure that exceeds the 2.1% year-over-year expectations should boost confidence over the health of the Nigerian economy.
Markets influenced by ongoing trade tensions
Investor sentiment has swung back and forth this week due to the persistent uncertainty and ever-changing jigsaw puzzle that is being mapped out around global trade developments.
Stock markets were mostly mixed on Thursday amid the contrasting signals that are being delivered to investors in regards to US-China trade tensions. While there is hope on one side of the table that there will be a handshake between the US and Chinese authorities at the G20 next month to smoothen the recent escalation, this is being met with news that the US government will ban Huawei’s access to the US markets over national security concerns.
The conflicting signals over trade are likely to simply spark more uncertainty and confusion in the market, and investors will continue to scatter and reassess their appetite towards taking on risk as a result.
Market sentiment is poised to remain fragile over the next month in the lead-up to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit late June. Will the world’s two largest economies ever find a middle ground on trade or a tension destined to intensify further throughout the year? This is a question nobody has the answer for. And this is why investors are nervous, especially following the spectacular swerve that has occurred over the past two weeks.
Whatever the outcome of the hotly anticipated Xi-Trump meeting, it will certainly have a lasting impact on market sentiment for the second half of the year.
Euro unable to hang on to gains
Investors who were looking for a quick opportunity to push the Euro higher were given the thumbs up yesterday following reports that President Trump could delay auto tariffs by six months.
However, the Euro’s upside gains are limited with prices trading around the 1.12 level against the Dollar as of writing. Even though the first estimates on the Eurozone and Germany’s Q1 GDP prints met market expectations, the continent’s growth outlook is expected to remain challenged by external factors in the form of trade tensions.
With the outlook for the Euro fundamentally bearish amid growth concerns and the European Central Bank (ECB) adopting a cautious stance, the EURUSD is positioned for further downside. A solid weekly close below the 1.120 level is likely to signal a move towards 1.113 and 1.100, respectively.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Disappointing economic data from the United States and China added to the negative mood yesterday, which in turn was a welcome development for safe-haven assets.
Gold bulls remain supported by trade uncertainty and concerns over slowing economic growth and this continues to be reflected in the metal’s valuation. Prices have the potential to test the psychological $1300 level again in the coming days as market caution accelerates the flight to safety.
Focusing on the technical picture, the precious metal is bullish on the daily charts. A solid weekly close above $1300 should invite a move higher towards $1310 and $1324, respectively. With the catalysts that can significantly reverse the ongoing flight-to-safety in the near term being limited, Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat.
E-Financial
World Bank Okays New $1.25Bn Loan for Nigeria

The World Bank has approved a fresh $1.25 billion loan for Nigeria under its Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (NAIJA) programme.

The approval was announced this week as the World Bank unveiled a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria covering the 2026–2032 period.
According to the bank, the six-year framework is designed to support Nigeria’s development priorities by promoting private sector-led growth and creating more employment opportunities across the country.
“The World Bank Group has endorsed a new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria spanning 2026–2032, setting out a strategy to create more and better jobs at scale by unlocking private sector-led growth,” the statement read.
It added that the bank had “also approved the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration Development Policy Financing operation, which supports Nigeria’s transition toward a more inclusive growth model that spurs growth and creates jobs.”
The latest approval follows recent criticism after reports emerged that the Federal Government was seeking another $1.25 billion facility from the World Bank to finance economic reforms, improve competitiveness and stimulate job creation.
The move drew concerns from many Nigerians, who argued that increasing foreign loans had not translated into better living conditions.
The World Bank said its new partnership framework builds on the country’s recent macroeconomic reforms, which it believes have strengthened economic growth, improved government revenue, increased external reserves and boosted investor confidence.
As part of the programme, the bank plans to help expand electricity access to 32 million Nigerians, provide broadband connectivity to 58 million people, improve health and nutrition services for 40 million citizens and support about 9.5 million farmers.
The framework also targets improvements in human capital development, agricultural productivity, energy supply and digital infrastructure.
Mathew Verghis, country director for Nigeria, World Bank, said the institution’s support would focus on ensuring that recent economic reforms deliver tangible benefits for Nigerians.
“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth.
“The recent macroeconomic gains have been critical to help stabilise the economy. Translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation,” he said.
The bank said the $1.25 billion Development Policy Financing operation is expected to back reforms aimed at improving Nigeria’s business environment and strengthening long-term economic growth.
According to the statement, the planned reforms include expanding capital markets, updating regulations for the digital economy and e-governance, accelerating electricity sector reforms, reducing trade barriers in line with Nigeria’s commitments under the Economic Community of West African States and the African Continental Free Trade Area, improving access to quality agricultural seeds and increasing domestic revenue generation.
“The NAIJA DPF operation, which amounts to $1.25bn, supports a set of Government reforms to strengthen the foundations for growth and competitiveness.
“These include deepening capital markets, modernising the regulatory framework for the digital economy and e-governance, advancing power sector reforms to accelerate electrification, lowering trade barriers in line with Nigeria’s ECOWAS and AfCFTA commitments to help ease price pressures, improving access to quality agricultural seeds, and strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation.”
Dahlia Khalifa,divisional director for Nigeria, International Finance Corporation, said ongoing reforms had positioned the country to attract more private sector investment.
“Nigeria’s long-term growth potential will be shaped by the economy’s ability to attract investment, raise productivity, and unleash private sector job creation, building on the capital of a rapidly growing population,” she said.
Also speaking, Ed Mountfield, vice-president and chief financial officer, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, said although Nigeria’s reforms had created opportunities for investors, risks remained.
“Nigeria’s reform progress is creating important opportunities for private investment, but risks remain for investors. MIGA’s role is to help manage these risks—through guarantees and political risk insurance—so that investors can step in with confidence,” he said.
The newly approved facility is the second-largest single World Bank loan secured by Nigeria since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office, behind the $1.5 billion Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing approved in June 2024.
E-Financial
SEC Grants Approval to Luno, Other Crypto Firms under Regulatory Sandbox

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has admitted seven new companies into its Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme (ARIP), expanding the number of digital asset firms operating under its regulatory sandbox as Nigeria continues efforts to formalise oversight of the sector.

The Commission disclosed this in a statement issued on Friday, noting that the newly admitted firms would receive Approval-in-Principle (AIP), allowing them to operate within the defined scope of the programme, subject to regulatory and supervisory conditions.
The seven companies are Bitbarter Technologies Limited, Luno Fintech Nigeria Limited, GetEquity Limited, Koinkoin Global Network Limited, Wrapped CBDC Ltd, Trovotech Ltd, and Blockvault Custodian Ltd.
The latest approval follows the SEC’s admission of Quidax and Busha into its regulatory framework in August 2024, as the Commission continues efforts to formalise oversight of Nigeria’s digital asset industry.
According to the SEC, the Approval-in-Principle confirms that each company has satisfied the admission requirements for participation in the programme.
However, the regulator stressed that the approval does not amount to a final operating licence.
“An Approval-in-Principle confirms that an entity has satisfied the Commission’s admission requirements for the Programme. Please note that it is not a final licence and remains conditional on the entity’s continued compliance with all applicable regulatory, operational, and supervisory obligations,” the Commission said.
The SEC added that the latest admissions reflect its commitment to promoting responsible innovation while protecting investors and preserving market integrity.
Announcing the development in a separate statement, one of the approved companies, Luno, said the approval comes after an extensive engagement process with the SEC and marks another step in its regulatory journey in Nigeria.
The company, which began operations in Nigeria in 2015, said the approval provides a clearer regulatory pathway as it expands its operations in the country.
Luno Nigeria Chief Executive Officer, Ayotunde Alabi, described the approval as an important milestone for the business.
“This is an important milestone for Luno Nigeria and a strong validation of our commitment to building responsibly in one of Africa’s most important cryptocurrency markets,” Alabi said.
He added that the approval would strengthen the company’s engagement with customers and institutional partners while supporting its expansion into business-to-business (B2B) services.
Luno said regulatory clarity has become increasingly important as more financial institutions, fintechs, payment providers, asset managers, and corporate organisations explore digital asset services.
According to the company, it intends to expand offerings for institutional clients, including digital asset infrastructure, stablecoin applications, treasury solutions, and crypto-as-a-service products.
The Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme is the SEC’s regulatory sandbox designed to fast-track the onboarding of digital asset service providers and other investment service providers while allowing the Commission to supervise their operations under controlled conditions.
The framework enables the regulator to assess emerging technologies and business models while ensuring investor protection and market integrity before granting full operational licences.
The initiative forms part of the SEC’s broader efforts to establish a structured regulatory framework for virtual asset service providers in Nigeria following years of uncertainty surrounding the sector.
Nigeria remains one of Africa’s largest cryptocurrency markets, with growing adoption by retail users despite periods of regulatory uncertainty.
E-Financial
IMF Raises Concerns over N8.83 Trillion Unreported Spending in Nigeria’s Budgets

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal transparency, disclosing that about two per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated at N8.83 trillion, was omitted from recent official budget documents.

Bola Tinubu
Unreported public spending—also known as off-budget expenditure—happens when a government spends money on public projects or services without including those costs in official budget documents.
This practice hides the true size of the government’s deficit, hides debt accumulation, and distorts overall economic data.
The IMF said the unreported expenditure has created a significant gap between Nigeria’s reported fiscal deficit and its actual financing requirements, making government borrowing appear lower than it truly is.
Speaking at an industry event in Lagos, Christian Ebeke, resident representative of IMF in Nigeria, said the expenditure should have been reflected in the country’s fiscal accounts to present a more accurate picture of public finances.
“So far we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” Ebeke said.
The estimate translates to approximately N8.83 trillion, based on the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) latest nominal GDP figure of N441.5 trillion for 2025.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s nominal GDP increased from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025 following improved performance across both the oil and non-oil sectors.
Using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s average exchange rate of N1,436 to the dollar for 2025, the omitted expenditure amounts to about $6.15 billion.
Ebeke attributed the discrepancy largely to capital projects executed outside the formal budget framework, noting that the omission had distorted assessments of Nigeria’s fiscal position and public investment profile.
He explained that some government spending was neither captured in approved budget documents nor reflected in budget implementation reports, resulting in an understatement of the country’s actual fiscal deficit.
According to him, the lack of comprehensive reporting also complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers are left without a complete picture of government finances.
“The lack of full reporting can also complicate coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, as policymakers may not have a clear picture of the true deficit,” he said.
Ebeke warned that off-budget spending raises broader concerns about accountability, procurement processes and institutional oversight, stressing that improving fiscal transparency should remain a priority for the government.
“Improving transparency is critical,” he added, noting that expenditures outside the formal budget process undermine effective oversight and public accountability.
The IMF representative, however, acknowledged that the Federal Government has begun taking steps to address the problem through legislative reforms aimed at bringing previously unreported expenditures within the formal budget framework.
He said the authorities were working to amend existing budget laws to ensure greater disclosure of government spending but stressed that such reforms must be accompanied by timely and comprehensive budget implementation reports.
According to him, closing the reporting gap is essential to strengthening public financial management, improving transparency and restoring confidence in Nigeria’s fiscal framework.
The IMF’s latest observations come months after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased Nigeria’s economy, changing the GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, a revision that significantly increased the size of the country’s economy and, by implication, the value of expenditure estimates expressed as a percentage of GDP.
The concerns also follow the IMF’s recent Article IV Consultation on Nigeria, in which the Fund commended the Federal Government’s ongoing economic reforms for improving macroeconomic stability and boosting investor confidence, while cautioning that persistent structural weaknesses continue to limit the impact of the reforms on the broader population.
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