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Market sentiment influenced by trade developments; Nigerian inflation rebounds in April

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

It is coincidental how Nigeria’s inflation rate accelerated in April, only a month after the central bank unexpectedly reduced interest rates for the first time in more than three years.

With the impacts of the rate cut in March having a delayed effect and unlikely to be reflected any time soon, the 13.7% rise in inflation was based around rising food prices. Should inflation return with a vengeance in the coming months, businesses and consumers may feel the heat – ultimately impacting economic growth. All in all, it remains too early to come to any meaningful conclusion over whether inflation is set to rise, given how this has been the first increase in three months.

The next major risk event for the Nigerian economy will be the GDP report for Q1 which should offer critical insight into the health of the nation during the first quarter of 2019. A figure that exceeds the 2.1% year-over-year expectations should boost confidence over the health of the Nigerian economy.

Markets influenced by ongoing trade tensions

Investor sentiment has swung back and forth this week due to the persistent uncertainty and ever-changing jigsaw puzzle that is being mapped out around global trade developments.

Stock markets were mostly mixed on Thursday amid the contrasting signals that are being delivered to investors in regards to US-China trade tensions. While there is hope on one side of the table that there will be a handshake between the US and Chinese authorities at the G20 next month to smoothen the recent escalation, this is being met with news that the US government will ban Huawei’s access to the US markets over national security concerns.

The conflicting signals over trade are likely to simply spark more uncertainty and confusion in the market, and investors will continue to scatter and reassess their appetite towards taking on risk as a result.

Market sentiment is poised to remain fragile over the next month in the lead-up to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit late June. Will the world’s two largest economies ever find a middle ground on trade or a tension destined to intensify further throughout the year? This is a question nobody has the answer for. And this is why investors are nervous, especially following the spectacular swerve that has occurred over the past two weeks.

Whatever the outcome of the hotly anticipated Xi-Trump meeting, it will certainly have a lasting impact on market sentiment for the second half of the year.

Euro unable to hang on to gains

Investors who were looking for a quick opportunity to push the Euro higher were given the thumbs up yesterday following reports that President Trump could delay auto tariffs by six months.

However, the Euro’s upside gains are limited with prices trading around the 1.12 level against the Dollar as of writing. Even though the first estimates on the Eurozone and Germany’s Q1 GDP prints met market expectations, the continent’s growth outlook is expected to remain challenged by external factors in the form of trade tensions.

With the outlook for the Euro fundamentally bearish amid growth concerns and the European Central Bank (ECB) adopting a cautious stance, the EURUSD is positioned for further downside. A solid weekly close below the 1.120 level is likely to signal a move towards 1.113 and 1.100, respectively.

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Commodity spotlight – Gold

Disappointing economic data from the United States and China added to the negative mood yesterday, which in turn was a welcome development for safe-haven assets.

Gold bulls remain supported by trade uncertainty and concerns over slowing economic growth and this continues to be reflected in the metal’s valuation. Prices have the potential to test the psychological $1300 level again in the coming days as market caution accelerates the flight to safety.

Focusing on the technical picture, the precious metal is bullish on the daily charts. A solid weekly close above $1300 should invite a move higher towards $1310 and $1324, respectively. With the catalysts that can significantly reverse the ongoing flight-to-safety in the near term being limited, Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat.

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E-Financial

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

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First City Monument Bank (FCMB) has introduced a set of new features on its mobile app, led by a reward points system that turns everyday transactions into tangible benefits for customers.

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

With this update, FCMB shifts the focus from routine banking to value creation, giving customers a stronger reason to engage, transact, and stay within its digital ecosystem.

At the centre of the upgrade is the Reward Points feature, which allows customers to earn and redeem points on transactions made in the app. The more customers use the platform, the more value they unlock, creating a direct link between daily banking activity and real-life rewards.

Beyond the rewards, the enhanced app introduces a Regal Premium Lifestyle Subscription that offers users access to curated lifestyle benefits across travel, dining, and entertainment, plus a three-month free transfer for new-to-bank customers.

Customers can now access mutual fund investments directly within the app, helping them grow wealth without multiple platforms. This feature reinforces FCMB’s commitment to empowering customers with accessible financial tools.

To improve customer experience, the app now includes “Chat with Temi”, an intelligent in-app support feature that delivers instant assistance and quicker issue resolution.

Speaking on the update, Oladipo Alabede, divisional head, Payments and Solutions, said: “At FCMB, we are constantly innovating to meet the evolving needs of our customers. These features are designed to provide convenience, reward loyalty, and empower our customers to do more with their finances, right from their mobile devices.”

In line with its financial inclusion drive, FCMB has simplified account upgrades from Tier 1 to Tier 2, allowing customers to access enhanced banking services without visiting a branch.

Additionally, the introduction of instant virtual card request and activation ensures customers can immediately create and use secure digital cards for online transactions.

Adetunji Lamidi, divisional head, Personal Banking, emphasised the Bank’s digital transformation journey: “These upgrades reflect our technology-driven strategy to build a smarter, more intuitive banking platform. By integrating intelligent support systems like Temi and enabling instant services such as virtual card activation, we are redefining convenience and accessibility in banking.”

This comprehensive upgrade reflects FCMB’s ongoing commitment to innovation, customer focus, and digital excellence, positioning the mobile app as a one-stop platform for seamless, rewarding, and future-ready banking.

Customers are encouraged to update or download the FCMB Mobile App today from their app store to use these new features and take full control of their financial journey.

 


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E-Financial

Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

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Nigeria has accessed the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), drawing about $1.5 billion under the deal approved by the national assembly in March.

Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

This is despite caution by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  against proceeding with the proposed $5 billion structured Total Return Swap (TRS) financing program with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

IMF said that the complex derivative-based financing agreements are often opaque and carry hidden financial risks.

According to Bloomberg on Friday however, the federal government received the funds in the past two weeks through a structured total return swap (TRS) transaction with the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender, citing people familiar with the matter.

On March 31, the national assembly approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to secure up to $6 billion in external borrowing.

The borrowing plan comprised two facilities from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United Kingdom, including a structured TRS financing programme of up to $5 billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank.

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Tinubu had said the proposed borrowing would increase Nigeria’s public debt stock, which stood at $110.3 billion (about N159.2 trillion) as of December 31, 2025.

The drawdown comes despite concerns raised by Fitch Ratings over the financing arrangement.

Fitch warned that while such transactions can provide liquidity, diversify funding sources and lower borrowing costs, they often fall outside conventional debt-reporting frameworks and could weaken transparency and legislative oversight.

The rating agency also said the structure could expose Nigeria to additional foreign exchange risks if domestic bond yields rise or the naira depreciates.

Also, the International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the derivative-based financing arrangements are often opaque and complex, making it difficult to assess the full extent of governments’ debt obligations.


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E-Financial

Paystack Unveils AI-powered Payments Tools

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Paystack has launched Paystack Index, an experimental AI-powered payments tool, enabling users in Nigeria to complete everyday transactions through AI assistants such as ChatGPT and Claude.

The product allows users to buy airtime, send money via Zap by Paystack and order food from Chowdeck using simple text prompts. Instead of switching between multiple apps, users can instruct an AI assistant to execute transactions directly.

Paystack Index acts as a bridge between AI agents, merchants and Paystack’s payments infrastructure, while ensuring users retain control of authorised transactions.

The company said it does not store sensitive financial information such as card details, PINs or bank account credentials.

Developed with support from TSG Labs, Paystack’s innovation arm, the product builds on Paystack Checkout and Zap and forms part of the company’s broader work on AI-enabled commerce.

It is initially available to selected Zap users in Nigeria through an early-access beta programme and currently supports airtime and data purchases, wallet funding, money transfers and food orders.

Paystack said the launch reflects its belief that AI agents are emerging as a new interface for commerce, enabling users to move from prompts to real-world transactions.

Announced by co-founder and chief executive officer Shola Akinlade, the product positions AI assistants as execution layers for payments and commerce, rather than just tools for information and recommendations.

The launch comes amid rising AI adoption in Nigeria. According to a Google-Ipsos survey, 88% of Nigerians surveyed said they had used generative AI in the past year, while 62% said they used it for everyday tasks such as planning trips, meals or workouts.

The launch also follows Paystack’s recent restructuring under The Stack Group (TSG), which created dedicated business units for merchant payments, consumer transactions, banking services and emerging technologies.

Paystack plans to expand Paystack Index to more merchants, services and African markets, including Ghana, Kenya and South Africa, as it evaluates user behaviour and AI-powered checkout experiences.


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