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Will Oil Prices Help or Harm Nigeria’s Economy in Q3?

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

Global Oil prices looked tired, exhausted and ready for an early summer break during the second quarter of 2019 as global growth fears overshadowed supply disruptions and ongoing OPEC supply cuts. At the time of writing, Oil prices remain shaky and vulnerable despite OPEC+ latest decision to extend production cuts until March 2020.

The crucial question is whether Oil prices will ever recover and trade back towards the $70+ levels. That depends less on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and more on whether the US and China can reach a trade deal, settling disputes over tariffs and opening the door to continued global growth. In this case, it’s likely that Oil prices will be injected with a renewed sense of confidence on the back of boosted global growth expectations and demand for Oil. But what if the current circumstances persist and the US-China trade disputes continue throughout the second half of 2019?

Taking each scenario one-by-one, starting with the upside for Oil prices, Nigeria’s economy could benefit considerably if a US-China trade deal is reached and global growth expectations become brighter. The manufacturing sectors in the US and China are the Oil-gobbling engines which drive demand for international Oil suppliers. China is the world’s top crude Oil consumer, importing more than 50 percent of its consumption, part of which comes from Nigeria. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Nigeria exported N23.5 billion worth of crude Oil to China and remains a major trading partner to the Asian giant. It’s likely that if China’s economy roars back to life, Nigeria’s growth would see more long-term support, benefiting foreign exchange reserves and the Naira. Although unlikely, if a trade deal were to be announced early in the quarter, it’s possible the nation’s 2019 budget would also see ample support from increased Oil revenues from China. This argument doesn’t apply to the US which has considerably reduced its crude Oil imports from Nigeria as it heads towards energy independence, relying instead on domestic production to meet its own needs.  

If you take the negative outlook on Oil, it’s more likely the rise in Oil prices is a temporary result of supply shortage fears and the prevalent trend in Q3 will be downward pressure from concerns over a global recession. In this unfavorable scenario, the world’s two largest economies do not reach a trade deal in the third quarter and aggregate demand for Oil continues falling as it tracks economic weaknesses in China and the US. As demand for Oil is whittled away, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves may be negatively impacted, along with the Naira, the 2019 budget and most importantly GDP growth. In terms of the national budget sheet, expenses like the petrol subsidy may take the limelight as they drag on revenues, overshadowing growth and threatening fiscal stability.

There’s another factor we haven’t talked about so far but it’s significant in terms of Oil market economics. Oil sales are denominated in US Dollars. Recently, the currency has weakened against its rivals, meaning that Oil is more affordable and possibly giving traders an incentive to snap up contracts at current levels before they rise further. If the Dollar bears have their way and the currency keeps declining, Oil price benchmarks could see further support in the third quarter. The impact of a weaker USD might not be as strong as a US-China trade deal, but it could feed positively into Nigeria’s Oil revenues and go some way to counter possible losses from ongoing global recession fears.

To sum up, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, currency, growth and budget will face headwinds should trade disputes persist. However, provided the USD keeps weakening there’s scope for support from higher Oil prices based on bargain hunting. There’s always the possibility that the US and China could decide on a trade deal, if this happens sooner than later, Nigeria’s economy would benefit accordingly.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

EFCC Warns Fintech Firms over Rising Fraud, Ransom Payments

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Mr. Ola Olukoyede, chairman, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has called on financial technology companies in Nigeria to strengthen their systems and safeguard their platforms against exploitation by fraudsters and other criminal actors.

EFCC Warns Fintech Firms over Rising Fraud, Ransom Payments

Olukoyede made the call yesterday in Abuja during an industry engagement meeting with chief executive officers of fintech companies held at the EFCC headquarters.

He commended the fintech sector for driving financial inclusion and innovation in the country, noting that their platforms have expanded access to financial services.

However, he warned that the same digital space has increasingly been exploited by fraudsters.

According to him, continuous engagement between the EFCC and fintech operators is necessary to identify vulnerabilities and block loopholes being used for financial crimes.

“The opportunities you have created have also given criminals the opportunity to perpetrate crimes,” he said, adding that regular collaboration would help strengthen regulatory safeguards and protect legitimate business operations.

Olukoyede urged fintech operators to protect the integrity of their businesses, stressing that reputation remains a critical asset in the financial sector.

He warned that a single compromised transaction could damage years of trust-building.

He also advocated stronger intelligence sharing and cooperation between both parties, noting that such collaboration would enhance the EFCC’s mandate in tackling financial crimes.

On security concerns, the EFCC chairman raised alarm over the use of fintech and POS channels for ransom payments linked to terrorism financing.

He called for stricter compliance with Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements and improved monitoring of suspicious transactions.

“We have seen that criminals exploit your space, especially in areas involving ransom payments,” he said, urging the industry to work with regulators to close existing loopholes.

The meeting also featured discussions on regulatory and operational challenges in the fintech sector, with both sides exploring measures aimed at strengthening compliance and reducing fraud risks.


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New CBN’s BVN Rules Starts Today

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will from today start enforcing the new Bank Verification Number (BVN) regulations, in a major move aimed at tightening banking security and reducing rising cases of fraud across the financial system.

New CBN’s BVN Rules Starts Today

Key changes include restricting phone number changes to once in a lifetime, limiting banking apps to one device, and capping transactions on new devices to \(\text{₦}20,000\) for the first 24 hours.

Bank customers need to know these:

One of the major highlights of the policy is the restriction on updating BVN-linked phone numbers.

Customers will now be allowed to change the phone number attached to their BVN only once in their lifetime.

Fraudsters often take over accounts by changing phone numbers through SIM swap tricks. Limiting changes helps reduce that risk.

Make sure the BVN number you use is one you plan to keep for a long time. If you ever need to change it, do so carefully because you won’t get another chance.

Your account can be temporarily restricted for checks

Banks are now authorised to place suspicious BVNs on a 24-hour watchlist.

During this period, affected accounts may be temporarily restricted while investigations and identity verification are carried out.

If your bank notices unusual activity, your account may be flagged.

Transactions could be delayed or restricted while the bank confirms that you are the one making them.

BVN registration is now strictly for adults

Another key update is the introduction of an age restriction.

Only individuals aged 18 and above can independently register for a BVN.

Minors will no longer be able to obtain standalone BVNs, except through structured, guardian-linked arrangements approved by financial institutions.

You can only use your banking app on one device

The apex bank has also introduced a one-device-per-app rule.

This means customers can only use their banking app on one device at a time.

Logging in on a new phone will automatically log out the previous device.

If you switch to a new device, your transactions will be limited to ₦20,000 for the first 24 hours.

The policy is designed to reduce unauthorised access and improve identity verification, making it harder for fraudsters to operate using cloned devices or stolen login details.

BVN services are now limited to authorised channels

Access to BVN-related services is now more controlled.

Only CBN-approved banks and financial institutions can handle BVN updates or issues.

Avoid using third-party apps or unofficial agents. Always go through your bank for any BVN-related request.

 


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Fidelity Bank “Basking in Approval” under Onyeali-Ikpe, CEO

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Fidelity Bank Plc is basking in endless and stakeholders are happy.

Fidelity Bank "Basking in Approval" under Onyeali-Ikpe, CEO

Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, managing director and chief executive officer, Fidelity Bank Plc

With nearly 10 million customers, Fidelity Bank is demonstrating excellent market traction.

This a crucial evidence for investors that the bank is solution driven.

For instance, at the capital market, the bank was the toast of investors as  its market value surged amid bargain hunting on the Nigerian Exchange, with investors gaining more than 11 percent after few days of tradings last week only.

Fidelity Bank’s share price increased to N22.30 at the close of the market last Friday, as 11.227 million units valued at N251.523 million.

Investors are simply reacting positively to strong earnings, technology-driven growth, and strategic expansions.

Fidelity Bank, emerged a more robust financial institution after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and  the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ordered massive banking recapitalization exercise.

Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, managing director and chief executive officer, Fidelity Bank Plc, is being credited for driving these exceptional shareholder value, operational performance, and sustainable growth.

Despite the immense responsibility and intense pressure, especially during turbulent times,  Onyeali-Ikpe, has been strutting her stuff by strategic vision and exemplary leadership.

Onyeali-Ikpe has built Fidelity Bank as beacon in the banking industry underpinning the bank with trust, innovative technology, strategic growth, and strong leadership as well as  reputation.

She has broken every glass ceilings delivering milestones and solid imprints in the annals of banking.

The bank only recently completed CBN-verified share allotment, hitting N532 billion capital.

This heavy chest now guarantees the bank long-term stability, and enabling it operate with speed.

Since appointment on January 1, 2021, Onyeali-Ikpe, has-anchored the bank on bespoke digital, financial, and technology-driven tools designed to enhance customer experience.

By integrating AI, automation, and advanced data analytics, Fidelity Bank is today delivering solution banking.

Under Onyeali-Ikpe’s leadership, the bank has significantly improved brand equity.

Fidelity Bank also announced the completion of the acquisition of a 100 per cent stake in Union Bank UK, under the CEO.

A recent Brand Finance report ranked Fidelity Bank as the fastest-growing Nigerian brand, with its brand value more than tripling.

Onyeali-Ikpe was also named among the 2024 Most Influential Global Top 100 Export and International Trade Leaders, recognizing her contribution to expanding Nigeria’s trade and export financing capabilities.

Under her, Fidelity Bank has received multiple awards, including Export Finance Bank of the Year (2023 BAFI Awards), Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023, and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 (Global Banking and Finance Awards).

The bank was also recognized by Euromoney for Best Bank for SMEs (2023) and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria (2023).

Onyeali-Ikpe will be leaving as head of the bank this year but her record of placing the institution  upward trajectory will be indelible.

She may be leaving “big shoes to fill” because of her high-energy, infectious positivity which made her successful in everything she does.

 

 

 

 


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