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Nigeria Economic Outlook Threatened by Coronavirus Outbreak

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

The dramatic and fast-moving consequences of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak threaten an otherwise resilient outlook for Nigeria’s economy, following GDP results for Q4 showing an expansion of 2.55 percent. The growth was the highest seen since 2015 and above the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2.1 percent forecast.

The economy is supported by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) policies to boost credit growth like hiking the loan-to-deposit ratio and other monetary policy tools. On top of that, Oil production increased to two million barrels per day amid recovering global Oil prices versus 1.0 million bpd in Q3.

However, since then, risks to the economy have multiplied.

Like many other economies at the time of writing, Nigeria is vulnerable to the spread of the COVID-19 virus in economic and health terms because one of its main trading partners is the epidemic’s epicenter China. For the time being, the sizable manufacturing sector in China has been slowed by large-scale workforce disruptions and it is expected that GDP growth for the quarter will be pressured amid a fall in business confidence.

While it is too early to tell the precise extent of the slowdown, the impact on the supply chain and trading with China’s trading partners is already evident. Nigeria’s crude Oil exports to China fell in February amid weaker Oil prices as the outlook for global Oil demand weakens.

Nigeria’s Q1 GDP remains exposed to external uncertainties in the form of weaker Oil prices, the coronavirus COVID-10 outbreak, slowing growth in China and the global economy.

Focusing on the global coronavirus outbreak, so far there are over 83,000 confirmed cases with over 2800 deaths. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified Nigeria as one of its top 13 priority countries because of the direct links and travel volume to-and-from China. It is positive that Nigeria’s authorities are taking measures to stop the virus spreading, but the risks remain.

Since the onset of the virus outbreak early in the year, Oil prices have slipped over 15 percent amid demand-side concerns, the USD has appreciated against G10 and emerging market currencies against a background of risk aversion and Gold has jumped to fresh seven-year highs.

If it continues to spread, the virus outbreak and subsequent slump in demand from China present major risks to the Nigerian economy. Crude Oil revenues account for less than 10 percent of GDP but remain the biggest source of foreign exchange for the nation, 90 percent of export sales over 50 percent of government revenues.

Falling Oil prices would reduce foreign exchange reserves and ultimately complicate the CBN’s efforts to defend the Naira, meaning potentially heightened pressures on inflation and consumption with an eventual impact on growth. Lower Oil prices also impact the 2020 budget which was based on 2.18 million bpd at an Oil price benchmark of $57 per barrel.

Moreover, China is one of Nigeria’s biggest trading partners with total trade flows in Q3 2019 worth over $3.2 billion. It is important for the economy for the virus outbreak to be brought under control because if trade flows decline on the back of slowing growth in China, the impacts are likely to be felt in Nigeria.

The situation may prompt a greater focus on monetary and fiscal policy to shield the economy from external risks. The CBN meet in March but the economy remains under inflationary pressure so it is unlikely we’ll see an interest rate cut. Instead, the central bank may implement more unconventional tools to stimulate the economy.

Finally, it is even more clear that diversification is the key to reducing Nigeria’s reliance on Oil revenues and reducing the risks to growth. On the upside, there is still a possibility that the virus outbreak will be brought under control, meaning a return to full power for China and Asia and a relief to health authorities and policy makers in Nigeria and other countries.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Anti Graft Agencies Raise Alarm over Rising Crypto-Linked Financial Crimes

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Ola Olukoyede, chairman, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has raised concerns over the growing threat of cryptocurrency-related crimes in the country.

Anti Graft Agencies Raise Alarm over Rising Crypto-Linked Financial Crimes

Olukoyede made this known at the inauguration of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Country Programme for Nigeria 2026–2030, on Friday in Abuja.

The EFCC boss revealed that the world lost more than 160 billion dollars to illicit transactions involving digital currencies in 2025.

Olukoyede highlighted the risks posed by cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

He noted that criminal networks were increasingly exploiting technological advancements, global financial systems, and governance gaps to facilitate illicit activities.

“Last year, the world lost over 160 billion dollars to illicit transactions in cryptocurrencies.

”Tackling these challenges requires coordinated national responses, strong institutions and sustained intelligence-driven strategies,” he said.

He said that the UNODC programme came at a time when Nigeria and the global community were grappling with evolving threats from transnational organised crime, financial crimes, illicit financial flows, and cyber-enabled offences.

Olukoyede said the programme represented a strategic foundation for collective efforts to strengthen the rule of law.

This, he said, included enhancing the criminal justice system and protecting institutions and communities from violence, crime, and financial corruption.

He noted that the programme’s focus on combating corruption and illicit financial flows was particularly significant to the EFCC, given the enormous economic and social costs of such crimes on Nigeria.

“The imperative of sustained action to turn the tide cannot be overstated,” he said.

The EFCC chairman expressed pride in the commission’s longstanding partnership with UNODC, stating that the collaboration had strengthened institutional capacity and improved Nigeria’s response to economic and financial crimes.

He said the partnership had supported reforms and operational frameworks that enhanced the agency’s effectiveness in tackling corruption and related offences.

Olukoyede expressed optimism that the programme would further improve national security and safeguard the future of Nigerians through strengthened collaboration and shared operational experiences.

He stressed the need to continuously refine frameworks and ensure that Nigeria’s institutions and citizens remain at the centre of all collaborative efforts.

The EFCC boss commended UNODC for initiating the programme and reaffirmed the commission’s commitment to supporting its implementation to achieve measurable outcomes for Nigeria and the wider region.

Dr Musa Aliyu, SAN, chairman, Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC),  in his remarks, called for stronger collaboration among institutions to address Nigeria’s growing security and corruption challenges.

Aliyu said Nigerian society was currently grappling with multiple social ills, stressing that no single agency could effectively tackle the challenges alone.

According to him, the country faces complex and interconnected threats, including violent extremism, organised crime, illicit financial flows, smuggling, and other serious offences.

“There is a common point of truth, Nigerian society is entangled with many ills, and no agency can fight them alone,” he said.

The ICPC boss noted that these challenges also posed significant threats to the nation’s criminal justice system, warning that no society could remain secure under such conditions.

He, however, expressed optimism that through strategic partnerships and collective efforts, Nigeria could overcome the challenges.

Aliyu described the UNODC Country Programme as timely and appropriate, given the scale and urgency of the issues confronting the nation.

He emphasised the importance of international support, noting that Nigeria’s progress in tackling crime and corruption had been strengthened by its collaboration with global partners, particularly the United Nations.

The ICPC chairman said the partnership between the commission and UNODC had been beneficial to Nigerian society, contributing to efforts aimed at strengthening institutions and improving governance.

He congratulated UNODC on what he described as a significant milestone and a “grand stride” in supporting Nigeria’s fight against crime and corruption.

Aliyu reaffirmed ICPC’s commitment to continued collaboration, assuring stakeholders of the commission’s readiness to work with UNODC and other partners toward national development.

“I assure you of our continued support and willingness to work together for the growth and betterment of Nigeria,” he said.


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NCC to Curb SIM Fraud, Strengthen Digital Security with New Platform

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Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has unveiled plans to introduce a Telecoms Identity Risk Management System (TIRMS) platform to tackle SIM-related fraud, strengthen digital security and boost confidence in Nigeria’s digital economy.

NCC to Curb SIM Fraud, Strengthen Digital Security with New Platform

Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman of the commission, disclosed this on Thursday in Abuja at a stakeholders’ consultative forum on the proposed platform and planned regulatory changes.

Maida, represented by Rimini Makama, executive commissioner, Stakeholder Management, said the Mobile Station International Subscriber Directory Number (MSISDN), commonly known as SIM or mobile phone number, had become central to financial transactions, digital identity and access to services, but warned that its widespread use had also created vulnerabilities.

He noted that fraudulent activities linked to recycled, swapped, churned and barred SIMs had emerged as a major channel for identity theft and financial crimes, weakening trust in digital platforms.

He said, “The Mobile Station International Subscriber Directory Number commonly known as the SIM or mobile phone number has evolved into a critical identifier underpinning financial transactions, digital authentication, and access to essential services across all sectors of our economy.

“This evolution, however, has created new and challenging vulnerabilities. The fraudulent use of churned, recycled, swapped, and barred MISISDN’s has become a significant vector for financial fraud and identity theft, eroding public trust in our digital platforms and undermining the identity of systems we have worked hard to build.

“It is in direct response to these challenges that the Commission has initiated the Telecoms Identity Risk Management System Platform.”

According to him, the platform will enable service providers to verify mobile numbers flagged for suspicious or fraudulent activities before granting access, a move expected to reduce exposure to fraud and improve accountability.

He added that the system would enhance coordination among regulators, financial institutions and security agencies to build a more resilient digital ecosystem.

To support the rollout, the commission has proposed amendments to its Quality of Service Business Rules and the Registration of Communications Subscribers framework.

The proposed changes will require telecom operators to notify subscribers at least 14 days before recycling their lines and to upload details of churned numbers to the platform within seven days.

The amendments also introduce stricter provisions for blocking fraudulently registered or misused SIMs, aimed at improving transparency and protecting consumers.

Maida said the initiative reflects the commission’s commitment to collaboration and a whole-of-government approach to addressing digital risks, urging stakeholders to actively contribute to shaping the framework.

Also speaking, Olatokunbo Oyeleye, director of Cybersecurity and Internet Governance at the commission, emphasised the importance of trust in the digital economy.

“As rightly noted, digital trust is the operating licence of modern economy. Without it, nothing scales and with it everything accelerates. For our sector, this trust must be embedded across the entire value chain,” she said.

It was reported earlier that the NCC proposed that telecom operators must give subscribers a minimum of 14 days’ notice before deactivating their SIM cards over inactivity or post-paid churn.

The proposal was contained in a consultation paper titled Stakeholders Consultation Process for the Telecoms Identity Risks Management Platform, dated February 2026 and published on the Commission’s website.

Under the proposed amendments to the Quality-of-Service Business Rules, the NCC stated that “prior to churning of a post-paid line, the Operator shall send a notification to the affected subscriber through an alternative line or an email on the pending churning of his line.”

It added, “This notification shall be sent at least 14 days before the final date for the churn of the number.”

A similar provision was proposed for prepaid subscribers. The commission said, “prior to churning of a pre-paid line, the Operator shall send a notification to the affected subscriber through an alternative line or an email on the pending churning of his line,” stressing again that the notice “shall be sent at least 14 days before the final date for the churn of the number.”


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Kidnappers Now Use Banks to Collect Ransoms — Expert

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Dr. Kabir Adamu, a security expert, has raised concern that kidnappers in Nigeria are now using banks to collect ransom payments.

Kidnappers Now Use Banks to Collect Ransoms — Expert

Pix… CNBC

Adamu explained that in the past, kidnappers typically demanded cash payments for ransom.

However, there has been a noticeable shift to using mainstream banks for transactions.

Speaking on Arise News, Adamu, who is the CEO of Beacon Security and Intelligence Ltd, said this trend is worrying. In the past, kidnappers usually demanded cash, but now they are asking victims’ families to pay money through bank accounts.

He revealed that his team has tracked cases where ransom money was paid into bank accounts and successfully withdrawn.

Although he did not mention the banks involved, he said some progress is being made to address the issue.

Adamu explained that criminals previously used fintech platforms, but have now moved to traditional banks. This shift raises serious concerns about how well banks are monitoring transactions and following regulations.

He said Nigeria has improved its financial intelligence systems, especially after being removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) gray list.

However, he noted that there are still weaknesses in how rules are enforced.

According to him, “A lot has been done in terms of policy, but there are still major gaps in operations and compliance.”

“We’ve monitored kidnapping for ransom cases where the ransom is being collected by formal banks,” Adamu said.

“My team and I were shocked when the ransom demand was made in a formal bank. It was paid and collected. I don’t want to mention the names of the two banks that were extremely guilty, but even for those two, progress is being made,” he said.

The security expert noted that although fintech platforms had previously been linked to ransom payments, criminals have now shifted their operations to traditional banking channels, raising significant concerns about compliance and oversight in the banking industry.

Adamu emphasized that this shift in tactics underscores the urgent need for stronger accountability measures and compliance standards within Nigeria’s financial institutions.

He also pointed out the challenges faced by regulatory bodies in fully addressing the issue, despite recent advancements in financial intelligence efforts.

“From the point of view of policy, a lot has been done, but from the point of view of operations, there is still a lot that remains to be done,” Adamu stated.

According to a report by SBM Intelligence, Nigeria’s kidnap-for-ransom crisis generated at least N2.57 billion for criminal groups between July 2024 and June 2025.

The report, titled “The Year Ahead at an Inflexion Point,” highlighted that despite kidnappers’ demands totaling N48 billion during the year, they only received N2.57 billion in actual payments.

 


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