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Risk Appetite Flickers to Life on Vaccine Hopes, Nigeria Inflation in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

 

Investors across the globe have been injected with a renewed dose of confidence towards risk as governments relax lockdown measures and first human trial results raise hopes for a coronavirus vaccine.

The mood across financial markets is quite encouraging and this positive vibe should support global stocks and emerging markets in the week ahead. However, questions should be raised over the return in risk sentiment given how US-China trade tensions have made an unwelcome return. Concerns remain elevated over slowing global growth despite countries easing lockdown measures while fears mount around a second wave of coronavirus infections.

In Nigeria, the All-Share Index (ASI) also rose by 0.29% to close at 23,941.75 points on Monday and could mirror similar gains on Tuesday amid the positive vibe. While global equity bulls may be in the driving seat for now, bears are lurking in the corner waiting for another opportunity to pounce.

Nigeria Inflation in focus but major risk event remains GDP report

Repeated signs of rising inflationary pressures in Nigeria have squashed hopes over the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

The annual inflation rate in Africa’s largest economy rose for the seventh straight month to 12.26% in March amid border closures and the new VAT tax rate. Given the Naira’s weakness over the past few weeks amid severely depressed oil prices, inflation is forecast to hit 12.9% in April. Such a figure may place the CBN in a tight spot, especially if first quarter GDP figures scheduled for release next week confirm that Nigeria experienced an economic contraction last quarter.

King Dollar to maintain grip on iron throne

The mighty Dollar should reign supreme this week despite the semblance of stability enveloping financial markets.

Although investors are clearly hopeful over economies re-opening after an extended lockdown period, global macroeconomic conditions remain depressing while renewed trade tensions are bound to hit sentiment. As risk aversion makes a return and market players rush towards safety, one of the first destinations is likely to be the Dollar.

Another day, same old story for Pound

The path ahead for the British Pound is filled with many obstacles and dead ends as fears over a no-deal Brexit return to the scene.

One can’t help but feel a familiar sense of déjà vu as the UK government prepares for its final round of talks scheduled in June to try and avert a no-deal Brexit outcome.  To rub salt into the wound, economic data from the United Kingdom remains discouraging with the number of people claiming unemployment benefits soaring to 2.097 million in April.

With the fundamentals not in favour of the Pound, it may be only a matter of time till the technical paint a similar picture. The GBPUSD is under pressure on the daily charts and may trend lower if prices break below 1.2200. Sustained weakness below this level could open the doors towards 1.2000.

 

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Euro eyes 1.10 but upside capped by fundamentals

Where the Euro concludes this week will be heavily influenced by the pending Purchasing Managers Index data scheduled for release over the coming days.

A disappointing set of economic data may put an end to the current rally with 1.1000 acting as a ceiling. Looking at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains a wide range on the daily charts with support at 1.0770 and resistance 1.1000. Expect the currency pair to find comfort within these levels until a decisive breakout is achieved.

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Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold should remain in fashion despite stock markets rising and economies easing lockdown measures.

The precious metal remains supported by global growth fears, lower interest rates across the globe and fears around a second wave of coronavirus outbreak. Gold is trading at levels not seen in more than 7 years above $1430 and has gained over 14% year-to-date. A solid daily close above $1430 may pave the way back towards $1765 and $1770. Alternatively, sustained weakness below $1720 could open the doors back towards $1700.

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E-Financial

SEC Hikes Minimum Capital Requirements for Market Operators After a Decade

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revised the minimum capital applicable to all categories of regulated capital market entities after 10 years.

The minimum capital review, according to the SEC, is informed by the need to strengthen market resilience, enhance investor protection, align capital adequacy with the evolving risk profile of market activities, and ensure that regulated entities possess sufficient financial capacity to discharge their obligations in a sustainable manner.

“The revised Minimum Capital framework seeks to: enhance the financial soundness and operational resilience of market operators; align capital requirements with the scope, complexity, and risk exposure of regulated activities; promote market stability and systemic risk mitigation; and support innovation and orderly development of new market segments, including digital assets and commodities markets,” SEC said in a January 16 circular to market operators.

The SEC circular was sent to all entities regulated by the Commission, including but not limited to core and non-core capital market operators; market infrastructure institutions; capital market consultants; financial technology (FinTech) operators; Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs); and Commodity market intermediaries.

All affected entities are required to comply with the revised Minimum Capital Requirements on or before June 30, 2027, the circular said.

“Entities that fail to meet the prescribed requirements within the stipulated timeline shall be subject to appropriate regulatory sanctions, including suspension or withdrawal of registration, as may be determined by the Commission,” SEC said.

Tier-1 Portfolio Managers (Full Scope) involved in the management of Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) and Alternative Investment Funds (Private Equity, Venture Capital, Infrastructure Funds etc) above N20 billion Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and Non-Discretionary Private Portfolio Management Services above N20 billion Assets under Management (AuM), or exposure to foreign instruments up to 40 percent of the NAV are now required to have a minimum capital of N5 billion as against N150 million.

“Any Fund and Portfolio Manager with NAV/AuM of more than N100billion should have a minimum of 10 percent of the NAV/AuM as capital,” SEC added.

For the Tier-2 fund/portfolio managers (Limited Scope) who are in the business of management of Collective Investment Schemes with limited pooled fund creation of not more than 10 times the required capital (N20 billion) on Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and non-discretionary private portfolio management services of not more than N20 billion, or those exposure to foreign instruments of not more than 20 percent of the NAV, now require N2 billion as minimum capital as against low of N150 million.

Likewise, broker-dealers whose services include: client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services no longer require N300 million minimum capital to operate but N2 billion.

The SEC said the minimum capital review from 2015 low is in line with its mandate under the Investments and Securities Act 2025 to regulate and develop the Nigerian capital market.

Also, Tier 1 issuing houses who do non-interest finance services, advisory & arrangement services but no underwriting now require N2 billion as against N200 million; while Tier 2 –issuing houses with underwriting and offers a ‘one-stop-shop’ for issuers, provides underwriting services, and renders advisory and product development services require N7 billion minimum capital for this business as against N200 million.

Also, the minimum capital requirement for brokers (client execution only) has been jacked up from N200 million to N600 million, while that of dealers (proprietary trading only) has been moved from N100 million to N1 billion.

Broker-Dealers’ (client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services) has been raised from N300 million to N2 billion, while Sub-Brokers’ (Digital) from N10million to N100million; Sub-Broker (Corporate) has been increased from N10million to N50 million. Also, sub-brokers’ (Individual) now need N10 million minimum capital for the business as against N2 million while inter-dealer brokers require N2 billion as against N50 million.


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E-Financial

SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Police Force have forged an alliance against illegal scheme operators, investment frauds, and cryptocurrency frauds in a bid to protect the hard-earned savings and the financial dreams of the Nigerian people.

SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

Dr Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the SEC, stated this during a meeting with Kayode Egbetokun, Inspector General of Police, held in Abuja.

Agama said the SEC, as the sentinel at the gate of Nigeria’s formal capital markets, had the mandate to protect investors, maintain fair, efficient, and transparent markets, and promote the growth of a vibrant economy built on trust, which is done by setting rules, licensing operators and market surveillance.

He, however, stated that the Commission faced adversaries who operate in the shadows, outside regulated gates by exploiting the trust of people and promising miraculous returns such as 200 per cent in 30 days.

“Currently, there is a gap, a seam between identification and enforcement that these scammers exploit. Today, we aim to close that gap permanently. Therefore, we propose a robust, institutionalised collaboration with the following pillars: Joint Intelligence and Operations Task Force: Capacity Building and Knowledge Transfer; Streamlined Processes for Enforcement and National Public Awareness Campaign,” he stated.

The SEC DG advocated, “the establishment of a dedicated SEC-NPF team that combines market intelligence, forensic accounting, and understanding of complex financial schemes with investigative and intelligence-gathering capabilities. This team will be the rapid-response unit to new frauds.”

Agama also sought the permission of the IGP to go into a Memorandum of Understanding with the Cyber Security Unit of the Police Force in a bid to ensure that cyberspace is safe for all Nigerians

In his response, the IGP Kayode Egbetokun assured the SEC team that the Nigerian police Force is ready to collaborate with the Commission, strengthen partnership in all the ways possible, and ensure that the Commission achieves its aims.

He said, “Your role in the Securities and Exchange Commission is very crucial to the Nigerian Economy, and with our supervision and support from the government, we will ensure economic recovery and growth. If the police unit in SEC is strengthened, it is going to make such an impact on your enforcement drive. What you said speaks so much to your determination to ensure effective drive in the Capital market, and when we can achieve effective enforcement, it comes with so many benefits.

Egbetokun also congratulated the Commission on the recent achievement of the N100 trillion market capitalisation mark, adding that it will aid economic growth and development.


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E-Financial

Paystack Expands Beyond Payments into Banking

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Nigerian fintech giant, Paystack has taken its boldest step yet beyond payments, acquiring Ladder Microfinance Bank. The fintech giant has quickly rebranded its new acquisition as Paystack Microfinance Bank (MFB) in a strategic shift that could reshape how African businesses access credit, deposits, and embedded financial services.

After nearly a decade building the backbone of online payments in Nigeria, the deal gives Paystack regulatory cover to hold deposits, lend directly to businesses and offer banking-as-a-service products.

More importantly, Paystack’s chief operating officer, Amandine Lobelle, highlighted that it allows the company to exert greater control over the trillions of naira that already flow through its platform every month, turning transaction data into a powerful engine for credit and treasury products.

“After 10 years of building payment infrastructure and going deep, we realised that businesses needed more than just getting paid to grow. We wanted to leverage the expertise that we have built over the last decade to continue to address some of the pain points that businesses have,” said Lobelle.

Paystack MFB will operate as a sister company to its payments business, initially focusing on working capital loans, merchant cash advances, overdrafts and term loans for small and medium-sized enterprises.

By using real-time payment data to underwrite loans, Paystack believes it can offer faster approvals and more accurate risk pricing than traditional lenders, directly tackling Nigeria’s estimated $32 billion small business financing gap.

For Paystack, founded in 2016 and acquired by Stripe in 2020, the move marks a strategic evolution from being just a payments processor to becoming a core part of the financial operating system for African businesses.

Today, Paystack supports more than 300,000 businesses across Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa and has become one of Africa’s most trusted fintech infrastructure providers.

The banking licence is a game-changer as payments, once Paystack’s main growth engine, are increasingly commoditised across Africa. Lending, deposits and treasury services offer deeper margins, stickier relationships and long-term sustainability.

By layering banking services on top of payments, Paystack is betting that infrastructure depth will outperform flashy consumer scale.

However, the move also throws the Nigerian-born fintech giant into fierce competition with digital -first lenders and neobanks such as Moniepoint, Kuda, OPay and PalmPay, which already operate at massive scale. Still, Paystack’s strength lies in its merchant-first focus and developer-friendly APIs.

 


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