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Coronavirus – Is the Worst over for Nigeria or Just the Tip of the Iceberg?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Africa’s largest economy expanded by 1.87 percent in the first quarter of 2020, bucking the global trend of recessions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. For comparison’s sake, the performance represented a contraction by 0.68 percent compared to the 2.55 percent growth rate recorded in the Q4 2019 and 0.23 percent, when compared to 2.10 percent growth witnessed in Q1 2019.
What does this performance mean?
Nigeria rolled with a succession of devastating punches in the first quarter. The country’s resilience against tumbling Oil prices and the negative impacts of COVID-19 not only beats expectations, it wins a round during which other larger and developed economies lost growth and confidence on a massive scale. 
The US economy contracted by minus 5.0 percent while GDP in the UK shrank by two percent. In the Eurozone, the economy declined by minus 3.8 percent. Tragically, all those regions had high infection and mortality rates along with forced and extensive lockdowns.

While Nigeria has not escaped the spread of coronavirus, at 8,915 infected and 259 deaths at the time of writing, the virus’ economic impacts were constrained relative to other regions.  

Could the worst be over for Nigeria as global Oil prices recover and economies relax lockdown measures amid gigantic stimulus from central banks? As the worldwide economy slowly gets back on its feet, Nigeria could be strongly positioned for a quicker-than-expected recovery, at least on the basis of Q1 data.  

On the downside, uncertainty abounds. The negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, low Oil prices and slowing global growth may be felt across the economy for the rest of the year. 

The Naira remains exposed to negative shocks, foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $33.4 billion and inflation has jumped to 12.34 percent in April 2020, the highest since April 2018, meaning the Central Bank of Nigeria may have little room for maneuver.

Concerns over a coronavirus driven economic recession has prompted the CBN to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 12.5 per cent, from 13.5 per cent in May. Although lower rates may promote economic growth, this may come at the expense of rising inflationary pressures. Given the current uncertainty around Oil prices, the priority may be to boost consumption and continue diversifying the economy.

Oil prices going sub-zero earlier this year should be another major wakeup call about the importance of diversifying away from Oil dependence to other sustainable sources of growth. 

Economic data over the coming weeks will be critical in assessing whether Nigeria was able to weather the tornado of domestic and external risks in Q1. I’m watching for data from the banking sector on credit reports in June. Inflation and labour force numbers are also set for release and are significant benchmarks of economic health. Any serious deterioration or unexpected strengths in these numbers could set the tone for the second half of the year. 

The country’s outlook will also be affected by developments around the 2020 state budget which was already revised down to 10.52 trillion Naira. 

It’s important for investors to avoid either irrational euphoria or unreasonable negativity under the circumstances. While the Q1 GDP data may offer some semblance of hope, especially in comparison to other major economies, Nigeria is certainly not out of the woods yet. 

Fears around a second wave of coronavirus rattling the global economy may put Oil prices underwater again, rekindling recession fears. Then again, as the virus curves flatten in key economies, growth and recovery are just around the corner. 

In conclusion, one thing is for sure; any recovery scenario would be supported by Nigeria’s resilience and growing economic diversification.
 

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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

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Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), in collaboration with the Joint Revenue Board (JRB), has announced the implementation of a nationwide Taxpayer Identification (Tax ID) system, mandating all taxable persons in the country to obtain a unified tax identity.

FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

The directive, unveiled in a public notice issued on Monday, is anchored in sections 6, 7, and 8 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025.

The provisions require every individual and entity liable to tax in Nigeria to register for a Tax ID as part of broader reforms aimed at strengthening tax administration.

According to the notice, the Tax ID will function as a single, consolidated identifier for taxpayers, enabling seamless interaction with tax authorities across federal, state, and local levels.

The authorities said the system is designed to eliminate duplication of records, improve data integrity, and enhance the overall efficiency of tax-related processes.

The initiative forms part of ongoing efforts by regulators to deepen transparency, boost compliance, and curb revenue leakages within the tax ecosystem.

By harmonising taxpayer data across all tiers of government, officials expect improved accountability and more accurate tracking of tax obligations.

Under the new framework, the Tax ID will replace the existing Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) validation system currently in use. Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), financial institutions, and other organisations relying on the TIN Validation API have been directed to transition to the new Tax ID infrastructure.

The NRS and JRB also advised organisations requiring system integration or validation services to engage with designated departments within both agencies for access to the Tax ID Application Programming Interface (API) and related technical guidelines.

Authorities say the reform will simplify registration, filing, and payment processes for taxpayers, while providing the government with a more robust mechanism for revenue assurance and fiscal planning.

The rollout signals a significant step in Nigeria’s ongoing tax modernisation agenda, as policymakers seek to expand the tax base and improve non-oil revenue mobilisation amid evolving economic pressures.

 

 


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E-Financial

SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.

SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

T+1 settlement is a financial rule requiring that securities trades (like stocks, bonds, and ETFs) be finalized and ownership transferred just one business day after the trade is executed. It replaces the older T+2 system, giving investors faster access to their funds and reducing overall market risk.

This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.

In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”

Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.

The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.

“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.

It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”

SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.

“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.

The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.

 


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Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

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Nigeria’s banking sector is losing an estimated N2.5 trillion in annual earnings due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s high Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) policy, according to a new report by Chapel Hill Denham.

Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

The investment banking and research firm said the policy continues to impose significant constraints on bank profitability by requiring lenders to keep a large portion of customer deposits with the Central Bank without earning returns on them, effectively locking away funds that could otherwise support lending and income generation.

In its report titled “The Nigerian Banking Paradox: High Returns, Deep Discounts,” Chapel Hill Denham noted that although Nigerian banks rank among the highest return-on-equity performers in Africa, they remain undervalued compared to peers, largely due to regulatory constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The firm identified the CRR regime as a key structural factor limiting the sector’s earnings potential, arguing that it reduces balance sheet efficiency and restricts credit creation to the real economy.

According to the report, banks are still required to pay interest on deposits while a significant portion of those funds remains sterilised at the apex bank.

Chapel Hill Denham stated that the current policy framework, which evolved in response to past financial sector instability and exchange rate pressures, may now be exerting a heavier drag on growth and profitability than originally intended.

“Our analysis reveals that Nigerian banks operate under a uniquely restrictive regulatory perimeter,” the report said, adding that the structure suppresses reported returns despite underlying profitability strength.

The report also compared Nigeria’s reserve requirements with other jurisdictions, noting that the country’s CRR remains significantly higher than several African and emerging markets.

While South Africa operates a 2.5 per cent CRR, Kenya maintains 4.25 per cent, Ghana 15 per cent, and Egypt 16 per cent, with Morocco reported to have reduced its reserve ratio to zero.

Analysts at the firm said a moderation of Nigeria’s CRR from 50 per cent to 30 per cent could release up to N8 trillion into the banking system and potentially boost annual pre-tax profits by about N800 billion.

They added that investors currently price Nigerian banks on the assumption that the tight monetary stance will persist, limiting valuation upside despite strong earnings performance.

At its February 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria retained the CRR for Deposit Money Banks at 45 per cent, while Merchant Banks remained at 16 per cent, and public sector deposits outside the Treasury Single Account framework at 75 per cent, as part of efforts to sustain tight monetary conditions and manage liquidity pressures.


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