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Coronavirus – Is the Worst over for Nigeria or Just the Tip of the Iceberg?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Africa’s largest economy expanded by 1.87 percent in the first quarter of 2020, bucking the global trend of recessions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. For comparison’s sake, the performance represented a contraction by 0.68 percent compared to the 2.55 percent growth rate recorded in the Q4 2019 and 0.23 percent, when compared to 2.10 percent growth witnessed in Q1 2019.
What does this performance mean?
Nigeria rolled with a succession of devastating punches in the first quarter. The country’s resilience against tumbling Oil prices and the negative impacts of COVID-19 not only beats expectations, it wins a round during which other larger and developed economies lost growth and confidence on a massive scale. 
The US economy contracted by minus 5.0 percent while GDP in the UK shrank by two percent. In the Eurozone, the economy declined by minus 3.8 percent. Tragically, all those regions had high infection and mortality rates along with forced and extensive lockdowns.

While Nigeria has not escaped the spread of coronavirus, at 8,915 infected and 259 deaths at the time of writing, the virus’ economic impacts were constrained relative to other regions.  

Could the worst be over for Nigeria as global Oil prices recover and economies relax lockdown measures amid gigantic stimulus from central banks? As the worldwide economy slowly gets back on its feet, Nigeria could be strongly positioned for a quicker-than-expected recovery, at least on the basis of Q1 data.  

On the downside, uncertainty abounds. The negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, low Oil prices and slowing global growth may be felt across the economy for the rest of the year. 

The Naira remains exposed to negative shocks, foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $33.4 billion and inflation has jumped to 12.34 percent in April 2020, the highest since April 2018, meaning the Central Bank of Nigeria may have little room for maneuver.

Concerns over a coronavirus driven economic recession has prompted the CBN to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 12.5 per cent, from 13.5 per cent in May. Although lower rates may promote economic growth, this may come at the expense of rising inflationary pressures. Given the current uncertainty around Oil prices, the priority may be to boost consumption and continue diversifying the economy.

Oil prices going sub-zero earlier this year should be another major wakeup call about the importance of diversifying away from Oil dependence to other sustainable sources of growth. 

Economic data over the coming weeks will be critical in assessing whether Nigeria was able to weather the tornado of domestic and external risks in Q1. I’m watching for data from the banking sector on credit reports in June. Inflation and labour force numbers are also set for release and are significant benchmarks of economic health. Any serious deterioration or unexpected strengths in these numbers could set the tone for the second half of the year. 

The country’s outlook will also be affected by developments around the 2020 state budget which was already revised down to 10.52 trillion Naira. 

It’s important for investors to avoid either irrational euphoria or unreasonable negativity under the circumstances. While the Q1 GDP data may offer some semblance of hope, especially in comparison to other major economies, Nigeria is certainly not out of the woods yet. 

Fears around a second wave of coronavirus rattling the global economy may put Oil prices underwater again, rekindling recession fears. Then again, as the virus curves flatten in key economies, growth and recovery are just around the corner. 

In conclusion, one thing is for sure; any recovery scenario would be supported by Nigeria’s resilience and growing economic diversification.
 

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E-Financial

CBN bars large‑ticket loan defaulters from banking services in tough new crackdown

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has restricted banking services for large‑ticket loan defaulters as part of a broader push to enforce credit discipline and protect the stability of the financial system.

CBN bars large‑ticket loan defaulters from banking services in tough new crackdown

CBN

The directive, issued on Wednesday, March 26, 2026, follows public remarks by CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso at the 4th Annual IMF/AFRITAC West High‑Level Executive Forum in Abuja, where he declared that the era of leniency toward delinquent borrowers is over.

Cardoso said the apex bank is tightening corporate governance measures to safeguard the N4.61 trillion recently injected into the Nigerian banking sector and warned that there would be zero tolerance for violations.

“Our stance on corporate governance is unequivocal: zero tolerance for violations. By ending years of regulatory forbearance, we have reinforced accountability, tightened supervision, and elevated compliance standards across the sector,” he stated.

The new directive targets “large‑ticket obligors,” defined as individuals or entities with significant outstanding debts classified as non‑performing in the Credit Risk Management System.

Under the rules, these defaulters will be barred from accessing fresh credit as well as essential contingent liabilities and trade instruments, effectively cutting off their ability to obtain new loans or trade‑related banking facilities.

The CBN said the restriction is aimed at curbing “credit jumping,” a practice where borrowers move from one financial institution to another to secure additional loans despite existing non‑performing debts.

“We have implemented a restriction of banking services to non‑performing large‑ticket obligors. This decisive step underscores our commitment to credit discipline, financial integrity, and accountability,” the regulator stated.

The policy is intended to instil a long‑absent “culture of repayment,” protect depositors’ funds and reinforce the overall stability of the financial system.

Cardoso added that the CBN remains committed to orthodox monetary policy, focused on restoring price stability, strengthening policy credibility and anchoring expectations through discipline and consistency.


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E-Financial

NDIC Insures 99 Percent of Bank Customers

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has reaffirmed its commitment to protecting depositors and sustaining confidence in the nation’s banking system, declaring that its insurance framework currently safeguards about 99 per cent of customers across Nigerian banks.

NDIC Insures 99 Percent of Bank Customers

Speaking during the NDIC Special Day at the 37th Enugu International Trade Fair, Thompson Oludare, managing director and chief executive, highlighted the Corporation’s role as a critical stabiliser in the financial sector, particularly in times of economic uncertainty.

Addressing participants on the theme, “Empowering MSMEs for global competitiveness”, Oludare said the NDIC remains a dependable backbone for small businesses by protecting their funds against bank failures.

He disclosed that the Corporation reviewed and increased its insurance coverage in 2024 in line with prevailing economic realities. Under the revised structure, depositors in Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), Mobile Money Operators, and Non-Interest Banks are insured up to ₦5,000,000, while those in Microfinance Banks and Primary Mortgage Institutions are covered up to ₦2,000,000.

Explaining the operational mechanism behind depositor protection, Oludare noted that the NDIC does not depend on government funding to reimburse customers of failed banks.

Rather, it draws from the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), which is financed through premiums contributed by licensed financial institutions.

He described the process as efficient and sustainable, enabling the Corporation to meet its obligations promptly without placing pressure on public finances.

Highlighting recent technological advancements, the NDIC boss revealed that the use of the Bank Verification Number (BVN) has significantly improved the speed of payments to affected depositors.

According to him, the BVN system allows the Corporation to trace alternative bank accounts of customers and process reimbursements within days of a bank’s closure, eliminating the delays previously associated with manual claims.

For depositors with balances above the insured limits, Oludare reassured that recovery efforts remain ongoing through liquidation processes.

“This is a continuous process,” he stated. “Additional dividend payments are made in tranches as more funds are recovered. We have demonstrated this successfully with the liquidation of Union Homes, Aso Savings and Loans, and the more recent Heritage Bank Limited, where multiple tranches of dividends have already been disbursed.”

He also cautioned Nigerians against falling victim to fraudulent financial schemes, popularly known as “wonder banks”, urging them to verify the credibility of financial institutions before investing.

On his part, Nnanyelugo Onyemelukwe, president of the Enugu Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (ECCIMA), described the Corporation as a dependable safeguard for depositors.

According to him, the NDIC remains “a beacon of hope for depositors”, providing a “great confidence backup” in situations where banks fail due to mismanagement or distress.

Onyemelukwe also called for stronger regulatory oversight by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to further reduce the risk of bank failures and sustain public trust in the financial system.

 


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CBN Bars Chronic Loan Defaulters from Accessing Loans

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has officially restricted banking services for “chronic defaulters” and large-ticket obligors with non-performing loans.

CBN Bars Chronic Loan Defaulters from Accessing Loans

In a sweeping move to enforce credit discipline and safeguard the nation’s financial system, the apex bank issued a policy statement on Wednesday following remarks by Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, at the 4th Annual IMF/AFRITAC West 2 High-Level Executive Forum in Abuja.

The Governor made it clear that the era of regulatory forbearance for delinquent borrowers is over.

He emphasised that the bank is shifting toward a more aggressive stance on corporate governance to ensure that the N4.61tn in new capital recently attracted by the banking sector is protected from systemic abuse.

“Our stance on corporate governance is unequivocal: zero tolerance for violations. By ending years of regulatory forbearance, we have reinforced accountability, tightened supervision, and elevated compliance standards across the sector,” the Governor stated.

The new directive specifically targets “large-ticket obligors”, individuals or entities with significant outstanding debts classified as non-performing in the Credit Risk Management System. Under the new rules, these defaulters will be barred from accessing not only fresh credit but also essential contingent liabilities and trade instruments.

“We have implemented a restriction of banking services to non-performing large-ticket obligors. This decisive step underscores our commitment to credit discipline, financial integrity, and accountability,” the statement read.

According to the CBN, the move is designed to instil a “culture of repayment” that has historically been lacking among high-profile borrowers. By cutting off access to instruments such as letters of credit and performance bonds, the regulator aims to prevent “credit jumping”, a practice where defaulters migrate between banks to accumulate more debt.

“By curbing access to banking services for chronic defaulters, we are reinforcing the culture of repayment, protecting depositors, and safeguarding the stability of the financial system,” the apex bank added.

Beyond the crackdown on debtors, Cardoso reaffirmed that the CBN remains firmly committed to orthodox monetary policy. This approach prioritises price stability and the use of traditional tools to anchor inflation expectations, moving away from unconventional interventions to restore confidence in the naira.

“The CBN remains firmly anchored in orthodox monetary policy, focused on restoring price stability, strengthening policy credibility, and anchoring expectations through discipline and consistency,” the statement concluded.

For years, the Nigerian banking sector has struggled with “chronic defaulters”, wealthy individuals or massive corporations that borrow billions and fail to repay.

These are often referred to as “large-ticket obligors”. When these loans go bad, they threaten the liquidity of banks and the safety of ordinary citizens’ deposits.

Under the leadership of Cardoso, the CBN is pivoting toward “Orthodox Monetary Policy”. This means moving away from the era of massive development interventions and direct lending to sectors like agriculture and focusing instead on its core mandate: price stability and financial system regulation.


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