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A Rough and Rocky Road Ahead for Nigeria’s Economy?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Africa’s largest economy commenced the final quarter by facing some of the biggest protests witnessed since military rule ended in 1999.

 

The protests boiled over during an already turbulent and rocky time not in the local but global economy. The cumulative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and other restrictions triggered a downturn together with a sharp increase in public debt. Given the resulting uncertainty from the protests, financial markets were spooked once again with the strong knock-on effects hitting Nigeria’s stock market and international bond while further clouding its economic outlook.

Before this development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a 4.3 percent contraction in GDP because of COVID-19. Depressed Oil prices enduring a prolonged lapse in demand has not helped matters with the aftermath of the protests projected to cost over N700-billion Naira in output – something that may drag on real GDP.

 

Inflation becoming a cause for concern

 

Nigeria has been scarred by three consecutive quarters of rising inflationary pressures, shaky economic fundamentals, Dollar scarcity and low Oil prices. A 24-hour curfew imposed on Lagos worsened the outlook for the already fragile economic landscape and local businesses which bore the marks of deep wounds from COVID-19. 

 

Inflation rose for 13 months straight, hitting 13.71 percent in September. Price increases were seen mainly in medical treatment, electricity, food supplies and passenger air travel but so far have not impacted the Oil industry. This is a welcome development given that Oil accounts for over 90 percent of export earnings and 70 percent of government revenues.

 

Banks clamp down on speculation

 

Focusing on the Naira, the banking system clamped down on speculation and limited foreign exchange transactions by individuals and corporations. The intention was to stabilise the currency which was at the centre of a perfect storm of low Oil prices, Dollar scarcity and a weaker economy.

 

The results of the foreign currency restrictions in the banking sector remain to be seen.

 

External pressures likely to influence outlook

 

Presidential elections in the US added to the uncertainty prevailing around Nigeria’s economic outlook, especially when it comes to Oil prices. According to national polls, Democrat challenger Joe Biden is leading the incumbent Donald Trump but electoral polls are the kind of forecast that can change last minute. Whatever the political race’s outcome, the result is critical for the US and global economy and may heavily influence the financial markets.

 

When it comes to Oil, Trump’s policy of backing the US Shale industry and ramping up US Oil production may fall by the wayside in the case that Biden wins the election. In turn, this could pressure global Oil prices and send them even lower. The downside scenario may weigh on Nigeria’s economy in spite of its efforts to diversify and reduce its reliance on the Oil industry.

 

A Trump win may increase confidence in the Oil markets in the short term but in the medium term, COVID-19 is still the main problem for Oil demand. OPEC forecasts lingering effects of COVID-19 on the Oil markets and in the long term, sees demand for the fossil fuel reduced by green and renewable energy sources like hydrogen.

 

Nonetheless, Oil will continue to have the largest share of the energy mix until 1945, according to OPEC.

In summary, Nigeria’s economy faces unprecedented headwinds in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of 2021. The challenge is to get through the storm of a weakened economy facing internal and external threats and reach a place where there is smoother sailing. Now more than ever, it is important to keep diversifying the economy and make provisions for a calmer future where Nigeria can recover from its recent trials.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

General News

Krishnan Exits Africa Data Centre to Embark of Professional Chapter

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Dr. Krishnan Ranganath, the hitherto Regional Executive – West Africa at Africa Data Centres (ADC), Africa’s largest network of interconnected, carrier- and cloud-neutral data centre facilities, has moved on from the company after half a decade of record growth.

This was confirmed in a LinkedIn post, where he noted that after more than five years of transformative leadership, he is signing off to embark on a new professional chapter.

Reflecting on his tenure, Dr. Ranganath noted that the journey was defined by resilience and a commitment to building infrastructure designed for the future.

“What started as a mission to navigate the complexities of a new market has evolved into a chapter of immense growth. We didn’t just build data centres; we built the foundation for West Africa’s digital future. I am immensely proud of the culture of operational excellence we’ve fostered and the milestones we have achieved together,” Dr. Ranganath said in a message to our inquiry.

Dr. Ranganath joined ADC during a pivotal era, tasked with establishing the brand as a formidable challenger in the competitive West African market. Under his guidance, the region evolved from a bold experiment into a definitive powerhouse of digital infrastructure, moving from the installation of its first rack to becoming a trusted, well-established partner in the colocation and cloud services space.

During his five-year leadership, Dr. Ranganath managed several key strategic pillars. He led market entry and expansion by navigating complex regulatory and environmental landscapes to turn regional challenges into competitive advantages. He also drove infrastructure excellence by scaling operations from foundational setups into a high-capacity, well-established powerhouse. Finally, he provided cultural leadership by building a high-performance team from the ground up that balanced strategic breakthrough with a collaborative, human-centric work environment.

In the emotionally-laced message, Dr. Ranganath extended his gratitude to the ADC team, describing them as the heartbeat of the company’s success in West Africa. “To my team and colleagues: thank you for the late nights and the strategic breakthroughs that fueled our progress. I leave with great memories and a sharp focus on what’s next.”

While Dr. Ranganath has not yet revealed his next destination, he encouraged his professional network and industry stakeholders to stay tuned for the announcement of his upcoming ventures.


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Galaxy Backbone Announces Expansion of GOVMAIL to Over 150,000 Accounts

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Galaxy Backbone Limited (GBB), Nigeria’s leading ICT infrastructure provider to the federal government, has announced the growth of the official GOVMAIL platform to over 150,000 active accounts used by workers across Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs).

In a statement by Chidi Okpala, Head of Corporate Communications, GBB described GOVMAIL as a secure, centralized email system launched by the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation to modernize public service workflows and cut reliance on paper and external emails.

Okpala said the platform supports professional, auditable communication across government arms, aligning with the digital transformation agenda.

Head of the Civil Service, Mrs. Didi Esther Walson-Jack, highlighted GOVMAIL’s role in late 2025, noting over 100,000 accounts created under a paperless policy to shift from traditional correspondence to secure digital channels.

GBB emphasized that GOVMAIL operates on sovereign local infrastructure with enterprise-grade cybersecurity, centralized identity management, and compliance with national data protection standards for enhanced accountability and efficiency.

The platform complements GBB’s infrastructure, including Tier III and IV Data Centres, National Fibre Backbone, Security Operations Centre (SOC), and Network Operations Centre (NOC), all supporting the government’s digital economy strategy.

To boost adoption, GBB is partnering with MDAs to onboard remaining staff quickly, ensuring all public servants have access to these tools for efficient inter-agency communication.

“Galaxy Backbone remains committed to sustaining this progress and providing support to advance Nigeria’s digital public service ecosystem,” the statement added.


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Leo Stan Ekeh at 70; thanks Tinubu, Obasanjo, Nigerians, Global Tech Community

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Leo Stan Ekeh, Chairman of Zinox Group and Africa’s foremost digital disruptor, has expressed gratitude to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and former President and African statesman, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, for their goodwill messages and prayers on his birthday.

Leo Stan Ekeh at 70; thanks Tinubu, Obasanjo, Nigerians, Global Tech Community

Ekeh, who turned 70 on Sunday, February 22, also extended gratitude to governors; former governors, including Babatunde Raji Fashola, former governor of Lagos state; National Assembly members; captains of industries, members of the global tech community, some of whom sent delegations to his house aside virtual goodwill messages sent from across the globe; royal fathers and the media.

In a post-birthday prayer and thanksgiving meeting with some members of the ICT media in his Ikoyi residence at the weekend, Ekeh said he was overwhelmed by the deluge of good wishes from Nigerians of all tribes and tongues.

Ekeh reflected on his relationship with President Tinubu over the past decades, describing Tinubu as a trustworthy and loyal friend who does not hesitate to make sacrifices for the good of the people he leads.

“President Tinubu has been my supporter long before I launched Zinox. He has always shown brotherly love,” he recalled.

He mentioned Mr. Sam Amuka, publisher of Vanguard newspapers; Lt. General T.Y Danjuma (retd), Founder, South Atlantic Petroleum; and Pa Obafemi Awolowo’s family as some of the many Nigerians with established companies who “experienced me and trusted me in the early days of my business life, and I didn’t disappoint”.

Recounting how Nigerians celebrated him on his birthday, he said: “In all my years, I have never seen such a show of love from Nigerians via different communications channels, from calls to social media. I was deeply touched by the kindred spirit of Nigerians. It tells me one thing: Nigerians are caring and loving people, and they appreciate quality and value-driven impact.

“I want to use this medium to say ‘thank you’ to those who sent me messages of goodwill, prayers through different communication platforms that I could not immediately acknowledge. I appreciate you all,” he said.

It will be recalled that President Tinubu while celebrating Ekeh on his birthday described him as one of “Nigeria’s pioneering innovators in the information technology sector.”

The President also commended Ekeh for his “commitment to promoting the Nigerian brand and creating opportunities for young Nigerians,” amongst his other achievements in the tech sector.

President Obasanjo, accompanied by his wife, Chief (Mrs.) Bola Obasanjo, who visited Ekeh to pray for him, described Ekeh as a “very kind man and an achiever who inspired many youths at a critical point in Nigeria’s information technology history.” He also prayed for the Zinox Group boss to live for 100 years and beyond.

As a sitting President, Obasanjo honoured Ekeh as an Icon of Hope and a role model for Nigerian youths on October 1st, 2001, and subsequently with the national honour of the Officer of the Federal Republic (OFR).

Others who joined Obasanjo in honouring Ekeh were former Lagos state governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola and his wife, former INEC Chairman, Professor Maurice Iwu and his wife, Chairman of MTN, Dr. Ernest Ndukwe and his wife; Mr. Atedo Peterside, Founder of Stanbic IBTC Bank and his wife; Chairman of Fidelity Bank, Mrs. Amaka Onwughalu and her husband; Managing Director Fidelity Bank, Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe; Mr. Udoma Udo-Udoma, Chairman Seplat Energy and his wife; Mr. Sam Amuka; Prof Anya O. Anya; Mr. Chris Uwaje, tech policy expert and his wife; Mr. John Momoh, Chairman of Channels Media Group and his wife; Mr and Mrs Walter, CEO of Providus bank, Mr. Roosevelt Ogbonna, group CEO of Access bank, Mrs. Victoria Ajayi, CEO of TVC  Communications and her husband; Mrs. Nkeiru Anumudu, CEO of Globe Motors, secondary school mates of Ekeh including Charles Oputa (Charly Boy) who came with his wife; Leo Stan’s elder brother HRM Eze George Ekeh (aka Saint George), the traditional ruler Ishi Ubomiri Autonomous Community in Imo state;  representatives of multinationals with whom  he has partnered all through the years;  among


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