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Recession, CBN and Naira in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, 

Africa’s largest economy has descended into its second recession in less than five years as oil production dropped to a four-year low.

Nigeria’s GDP shrank 3.62% in the three months through September from a year earlier, compared with the 6.1% contraction witnessed in the previous quarter.

As Oil production fell to 1.67 million barrels a day amid OPEC supply cuts and prices struggled to break away from the sticky $40 level, export earnings evaporated.

Although crude contributes to less than 10% of Nigeria’s GDP, it accounts for roughly 90% of foreign-exchange earnings and half of the government revenues.

Essentially, the collapse in oil prices in the wake of the pandemic has drained government coffers.

The economic picture remains clouded by external and domestic risks. While Dollar shortages continue to punish the private sector, rising inflationary pressures amid border closures and Covid-19 related disruptions have hit consumers.

Although the Central Bank of Nigeria has devalued the Naira by 20% in 2020 in an effort to unify its exchange rates, the Naira could be poised to decline further as falling reserves complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) efforts in defending the local currency.

All eyes will be on CBN interest rate decision on Tuesday which is expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 11.5%. It will be interesting to see whether the Apex bank enforces any unconventional monetary tools to stimulate economic growth.

In regards to the Naira, it is trading around N484 against the Dollar on the parallel markets. This is its weakest level in more than six weeks as the central bank’s intervention in the official window failed to meet demand.

Outside of Nigeria, global rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s both downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating further into junk on Friday evening.

Moody’s downgraded South Africa’s credit rating one notch to BA2 and maintained a negative outlook, while Fitch downgraded the country’s credit rating from BB to BB- with a negative outlook. Such an unfavourable development comes at a time where the country is dealing with rising government debt exacerbated by negative economic shocks. Given how the credit downgrades will most likely raise the cost of borrowing and constrain the fiscal framework, the outlook remains discouraging. It must be kept in mind that higher borrowing costs may impact social spending or result in higher taxes – developments that may not bode well for Africa’s most industrialised economy.

Outside of Africa, all eyes will remain on the tensions between the Fed and US Treasury, surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States, continued delay in the transition of power to President-elect Joe Biden and ongoing US fiscal stalemate.


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E-Financial

IMF Raises Concerns over N8.83 Trillion Unreported Spending in Nigeria’s Budgets

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal transparency, disclosing that about two per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated at N8.83 trillion, was omitted from recent official budget documents.

IMF Raises Concerns over N8.83 Trillion Unreported Spending in Nigeria’s Budgets

Bola Tinubu

Unreported public spending—also known as off-budget expenditure—happens when a government spends money on public projects or services without including those costs in official budget documents.

This practice hides the true size of the government’s deficit, hides debt accumulation, and distorts overall economic data.

The IMF said the unreported expenditure has created a significant gap between Nigeria’s reported fiscal deficit and its actual financing requirements, making government borrowing appear lower than it truly is.

Speaking at an industry event in Lagos, Christian Ebeke, resident representative of IMF in Nigeria,  said the expenditure should have been reflected in the country’s fiscal accounts to present a more accurate picture of public finances.

“So far we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” Ebeke said.

The estimate translates to approximately N8.83 trillion, based on the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) latest nominal GDP figure of N441.5 trillion for 2025.

According to the NBS, Nigeria’s nominal GDP increased from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025 following improved performance across both the oil and non-oil sectors.

Using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s average exchange rate of N1,436 to the dollar for 2025, the omitted expenditure amounts to about $6.15 billion.

Ebeke attributed the discrepancy largely to capital projects executed outside the formal budget framework, noting that the omission had distorted assessments of Nigeria’s fiscal position and public investment profile.

He explained that some government spending was neither captured in approved budget documents nor reflected in budget implementation reports, resulting in an understatement of the country’s actual fiscal deficit.

According to him, the lack of comprehensive reporting also complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers are left without a complete picture of government finances.

“The lack of full reporting can also complicate coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, as policymakers may not have a clear picture of the true deficit,” he said.

Ebeke warned that off-budget spending raises broader concerns about accountability, procurement processes and institutional oversight, stressing that improving fiscal transparency should remain a priority for the government.

“Improving transparency is critical,” he added, noting that expenditures outside the formal budget process undermine effective oversight and public accountability.

The IMF representative, however, acknowledged that the Federal Government has begun taking steps to address the problem through legislative reforms aimed at bringing previously unreported expenditures within the formal budget framework.

He said the authorities were working to amend existing budget laws to ensure greater disclosure of government spending but stressed that such reforms must be accompanied by timely and comprehensive budget implementation reports.

According to him, closing the reporting gap is essential to strengthening public financial management, improving transparency and restoring confidence in Nigeria’s fiscal framework.

The IMF’s latest observations come months after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased Nigeria’s economy, changing the GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, a revision that significantly increased the size of the country’s economy and, by implication, the value of expenditure estimates expressed as a percentage of GDP.

The concerns also follow the IMF’s recent Article IV Consultation on Nigeria, in which the Fund commended the Federal Government’s ongoing economic reforms for improving macroeconomic stability and boosting investor confidence, while cautioning that persistent structural weaknesses continue to limit the impact of the reforms on the broader population.


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E-Financial

Visa Targets Nigeria, Others in Visa Pay Expansion Drive

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Visa is expanding access to Visa Pay for additional issuers across Africa through a software development kit (SDK) that enables banks, mobile money operators, and fintechs embed Visa Pay capabilities into their existing mobile applications and to launch virtual cards and payment experiences quickly and securely.

According to a statement from the company, the solution is an interoperable and secure way for banked and unbanked consumers to transact and move money across participating banks, fintechs and mobile networks.

Issuers adopting Visa Pay’s SDK span multiple markets across the continent including Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Comoros, Mauritius, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania, and Sierra Leone.

With integrated issuer processing capabilities, built-in customer experience, tokenisation readiness and Visa-certified security and compliance components, SDK helps accelerate and simplify the deployment of Visa Pay, particularly in markets where infrastructure constraints can slow digital transformation.

Looking ahead, Visa Pay will continue to evolve with new capabilities designed to further simplify everyday payments. Among the features expected to launch soon is Tap to Pay, which will enable consumers to make secure contactless payments by simply tapping their phone at a contactless-enabled checkout terminal, said the firm.

“Visa Pay is designed to help issuers meet a wide range of market needs, from secure e-commerce and remittances to mobile money-linked virtual cards, humanitarian disbursements, person-to-person payments and future contactless experiences,” said Godfrey Sullivan, senior vice president and head of products and solutions for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at Visa.

“The adoption of Visa Pay represents an important step in strengthening our digital payments capabilities and supporting our broader digital transformation agenda. At a time when Sudan’s current challenges have increased the need for resilient and accessible financial services, we believe digital payment solutions play a critical role in enhancing customer convenience, supporting business continuity, and promoting financial inclusion” commented Yousif Eltinay, CEO of United Capital Bank, Sudan.

According to Jesse Jackson, chief digital and innovation officer for Tanzania Commercial Bank, from a business perspective, Visa Pay will enable it accelerate digital adoption among both consumers and merchants, increase transaction activity within its ecosystem, expand merchant acceptance and strengthen customer engagement.

“It also supports our broader goal of driving financial inclusion by bringing more individuals and businesses into the digital economy.”

 


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NDIC Warns Against Transactions with 46 Closed Microfinance Banks

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has warned members of the public against carrying out any transactions with the 46 microfinance banks whose operating licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

NDIC Warns Against Transactions with 46 Closed Microfinance Banks

NDIC

The corporation issued the warning on Thursday following the revocation of the licences by the CBN on July 1, 2026.

In a statement, the NDIC said it had been appointed the official liquidator of the failed banks pursuant to Section 12(2) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 and Sections 55(1) and 55(2) of the NDIC Act 2023.

It stated that the affected microfinance banks were no longer authorised to carry out banking business in Nigeria following the withdrawal of their licences.

The corporation cautioned members of the public against engaging in any unauthorised transactions with the closed banks or attempting to tamper with their assets and records.

It warned that any attempt by individuals to remove, conceal, retain or interfere with the assets, records or properties of the failed institutions would constitute a violation of the law and could attract appropriate legal sanctions.

According to the NDIC, it has commenced the process of an orderly closure of the banks through their immediate takeover, verification of depositors and payment of insured deposits to eligible customers.

The corporation assured depositors that the liquidation process would be conducted in accordance with relevant laws and regulations.

It added that depositors and the general public would be kept informed on further steps regarding the liquidation exercise, including the verification process and payment of insured sums to eligible depositors.

The NDIC urged customers of the affected banks to remain calm, assuring them of its commitment to protecting insured deposits and ensuring an orderly resolution of the failed financial institutions.


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