E-Financial
Recession, CBN and Naira in Focus
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
Africa’s largest economy has descended into its second recession in less than five years as oil production dropped to a four-year low.
Nigeria’s GDP shrank 3.62% in the three months through September from a year earlier, compared with the 6.1% contraction witnessed in the previous quarter.
As Oil production fell to 1.67 million barrels a day amid OPEC supply cuts and prices struggled to break away from the sticky $40 level, export earnings evaporated.
Although crude contributes to less than 10% of Nigeria’s GDP, it accounts for roughly 90% of foreign-exchange earnings and half of the government revenues.
Essentially, the collapse in oil prices in the wake of the pandemic has drained government coffers.
The economic picture remains clouded by external and domestic risks. While Dollar shortages continue to punish the private sector, rising inflationary pressures amid border closures and Covid-19 related disruptions have hit consumers.
Although the Central Bank of Nigeria has devalued the Naira by 20% in 2020 in an effort to unify its exchange rates, the Naira could be poised to decline further as falling reserves complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) efforts in defending the local currency.
All eyes will be on CBN interest rate decision on Tuesday which is expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 11.5%. It will be interesting to see whether the Apex bank enforces any unconventional monetary tools to stimulate economic growth.
In regards to the Naira, it is trading around N484 against the Dollar on the parallel markets. This is its weakest level in more than six weeks as the central bank’s intervention in the official window failed to meet demand.
Outside of Nigeria, global rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s both downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating further into junk on Friday evening.
Moody’s downgraded South Africa’s credit rating one notch to BA2 and maintained a negative outlook, while Fitch downgraded the country’s credit rating from BB to BB- with a negative outlook. Such an unfavourable development comes at a time where the country is dealing with rising government debt exacerbated by negative economic shocks. Given how the credit downgrades will most likely raise the cost of borrowing and constrain the fiscal framework, the outlook remains discouraging. It must be kept in mind that higher borrowing costs may impact social spending or result in higher taxes – developments that may not bode well for Africa’s most industrialised economy.
Outside of Africa, all eyes will remain on the tensions between the Fed and US Treasury, surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States, continued delay in the transition of power to President-elect Joe Biden and ongoing US fiscal stalemate.
The next currency crisis could accelerate the shift of the roughly $315 billion global stablecoin market into a digital-dollar alternative for citizens in emerging economies, notably in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
As local fiat currencies face devaluation and high inflation, citizens and businesses are increasingly utilizing smartphone-based stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) as hedges and primary mediums of exchange.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the rapid adoption of dollar-linked digital assets—particularly in countries heavily affected by inflation like Nigeria—poses significant risks to monetary sovereignty.
With up to 95% of surveyed individuals in some African markets preferring to receive payments in stablecoins over local fiat, the rising volume of these decentralized, cross-border channels weakens domestic currency demand and dilutes the effectiveness of local monetary policy.
IMF observed in a report titled “Stablecoins in Nigeria: A Growing Cross-Border Channel” noted that the widespread use of stablecoins poses risks to monetary sovereignty, particularly as more individuals and businesses turn to digital dollar-linked assets for savings and transactions.
Nodding in agreement is Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII Institute), a non-profit organisation run by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s main sovereign wealth fund.
FII Institute said that central banks face structural challenges.
And according to the institute, when citizens move savings out of national banks and into private digital wallets, conventional capital controls lose their grip.
Institutions like the Bank for International Settlements warn that interest-bearing stablecoins compete directly with domestic-currency deposits, complicating financial oversight and making smartphone-based transfers incredibly difficult for authorities to monitor.
In Nigeria, Naira depreciation has pushed users toward dollar-stablecoins, according to report by Gino Matos in cryptoslate.com.
A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a steady value by pegging its price to a reserve asset, such as a fiat currency (e.g., the U.S. dollar) or a commodity (e.g., gold).
They act as a bridge between traditional money and the digital asset world, providing the speed of crypto without the extreme price swings of assets like Bitcoin.
Federal government has reopened three federal government of Nigeria (FGN) bond issues valued at N1.2 trillion for subscription as part of efforts to raise long-term funds from the domestic debt market.
The Debt Management Office (DMO), which announced the offer on Tuesday, said the three reopened bond issues are each valued at N400 billion.
According to the DMO, the first offer is the January 2035 FGN Bond, a 10-year reopening, carrying an interest rate of 22.60 per cent per annum.
The second is the May 2028 FGN Bond, a 15-year reopening, with a coupon rate of 15.45 per cent per annum, while the third is the June 2037 FGN Bond, a 20-year reopening, also valued at N400 billion.
The office said the bond auction is scheduled for July 20, while successful subscriptions will be settled on July 22.
It explained that the bonds are offered at N1,000 per unit, with a minimum subscription of N50 million and additional investments in multiples of N1,000.
For the reopened bonds, the DMO said successful bidders would pay a price based on the yield-to-maturity that clears the auction, in addition to any accrued interest on the instruments.
Interest on the bonds will be paid every six months, while the principal will be repaid in full on the respective maturity dates.
The DMO reaffirmed that FGN bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government and constitute obligations chargeable on the general assets of the federation.
It added that the bonds qualify as trustee investment securities under the Trustee Investment Act and enjoy tax exemptions for eligible investors, including pension funds, under the Company Income Tax Act and Personal Income Tax Act.
The bonds are listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and FMDQ Securities Exchange and also qualify as liquid assets for banks in computing their liquidity ratios.
FGN bonds are long-term debt instruments through which investors lend money to the Federal Government in exchange for periodic interest payments and repayment of the principal at maturity.
Gigbanc, Nigerian fintech startup, has announced it is winding down operations, after three years, citing a tough fundraising climate.
Paul Omoregie Okundaye, and Babatope Oni, co-founders of Gigbanc
The company, which set out to build cross-border financial infrastructure for African freelancers, creators, entrepreneurs and businesses, confirmed the decision in a statement signed by its co-founders.
“After careful consideration, Gigbanc’s leadership has made the difficult decision to wind down operations,” the company said, adding that the move “reflects the broader funding environment affecting early stage startups in Africa, a challenge that has been widely documented across the ecosystem.”
Since its founding, Gigbanc grew a community of more than 150,000 people across multiple countries and processed over $7.28 million (N10 billion) in payment volume, helping thousands of users receive their first international payment.
The company also ran conferences, fellowships and community events aimed at connecting entrepreneurs and creators across the continent.
`Despite the shutdown, Gigbanc said it is not walking away emptyhanded.
The company disclosed that it is in active acquisition discussions with a prominent financial infrastructure firm, with further details to be shared once the process closes.
Paul Omoregie Okundaye, co-founder and CEO, and Babatope Oni, co-founder and CTO, framed the closure as the end of a chapter rather than the erasure of Gigbanc’s impact.
“While Gigbanc is winding down operations, we don’t see this as the end of what we built together. Instead, we see it as the completion of an important chapter,” the founders said. “The relationships, lessons, community, and impact we’ve created will continue to outlive the company itself.”
The founders thanked users for their trust throughout the company’s run, citing everything from transactions and feature requests to bug reports and criticism as forces that shaped the product
“We leave this journey incredibly proud. Proud of our team, who gave everything they had.
Proud of the community that rallied behind us,” they said.
Gigbanc’s exit adds to a growing list of African startups that have shut down or scaled back operations in recent years as venture funding on the continent has tightened, with founders increasingly citing capital scarcity as the primary driver behind closures and consolidations.
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