E-Financial
US, Eurozone Exhibit Pool of Mixed Data- ForexTime
ForexTime in its weekly report released on Monday said that the US proclaimed mixed economic news during the course of last week, some areas of the economy showing an onward and upward move and some lagging slightly behind.
According to data released on Tuesday, September 24th, the Consumer Confidence for September fell to 79.7 from August’s figure of 81.8, revealing that US consumers are not entirely confident about the progress of the economy and still have some doubts and reservations.
The release of Durable Goods Orders followed on the 25th, ForexTime continues, with a minute yet encouraging increase of 0.1%, backed by growing vehicle orders. The particular figure came under scrutiny by economists however because it excluded transportation, which constitutes a big part of durable goods orders and which in fact declined by 0.1%.
The report continues: “On the stronger side of events, the annualized GDP came in at 2.5%, a significant increase from the previous 1.1% and much in line with expectations of a 2.6% rise. Initial jobless claims further dropped from 310K to 305K, far better than the predicted 325K and a boost to the US dollar. Pending Home Sales for August also proved positive for the dollar, with a 5.8% rise.
“This week, the market is anticipating the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, October 1st, which is expected to rise slightly to 55.8. Thursday October 3rd holds in store Fed Reserve Bernanke’s speech, which could potentially cause major volatility in the market, and Friday the 4th will reveal the month’s most influential data, including Non-farm Payrolls which are estimated at 179K and the September Unemployment Rate which is expected to remain at 7.3%.
“The German federal election last Sunday was perhaps the highlight of the month in the eurozone, with Angela Merkel being re-elected with a dynamic 42% of the public behind her. Responsibility thus remains in Chancellor Merkel’s hands to strike coalitions with strategic allies in order to keep investor faith alight in the eurozone.
“On Friday the 25th of September, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for September was released, unchanged from August and in line with expectations at 1.6%. The Consumer Price Index for September disappointed, up by only 1.4% which was short of expectations of a 1.5% rise.
“The remainder of the data released in the eurozone was very mixed, with the Markit Manufacturing PMI and the Consumer Confidence disappointing at 51.1 and -14.9 respectively, but the Markit PMI Composite and the Economic Sentiment Indicator both above expectations at 52.1 and 96.9 respectively. ECB President Mario Draghi spoke to the public twice during the last week, the main point delivered in both his speeches being that the European economy is showing a slow recovery. The most important fundamental news from the Eurozone this week are the ECB interest rate decision and the ECB Monetary Policy statement and press conference on Wednesday, October 2nd.
“Data in the UK last week consisted of a better than expected Gfk Consumer Confidence, which hit a 6 year high by rising to -10; 3 points higher than the previous month and the highest figure since November 2007. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realized also grew unexpectedly in September despite forecasts of a downward move, rising to 34 from 27.
“On the downside, the annual GDP growth disappointed expectations of 1.5%, with a revised outcome of 1.3% for Q2, sowing the seed of doubt about whether the UK economy will continue at the pace of recovery it has enjoyed so far. This week the UK is expecting the PMI Construction on October 2nd, with a small increase to 60.1 anticipated.
“The biggest news to come out of Japan for the week that passed were the news on the Overall Consumer Price Index, which rose 0.9% in comparison to the 0.7% recorded in July, and the Core Consumer Price Index, which rose to 0.8% from the previous year. Both these figures were a positive indicator for the JPY because a higher CPI signifies higher inflation, which in this case is positive for a heavily reliant on exports Japan”.
The end of this week will see the Bank of Japan interest rate decided, with no expectations for any drastic change seeing as the 0.1% rate is beneficial for the Japanese monetary policy which aims to keep the JPY weak to boost exports.
Renaissance Capital Africa (Rencap) has named Zenith Bank Plc its top conviction pick among Nigerian banks, ahead of GTCO and AccessCorp, in a fresh research report highlighting the lender’s robust balance sheet and dividend potential despite sector headwinds.
Zenith Bank
The comprehensive review of the Nigerian banking industry notes that Zenith’s current market valuation lags its improving fundamentals, even as the NGX Banking Index posts strong gains recently.
Rencap upgraded Zenith from HOLD to BUY, lifting its target price by 96 per cent based on a lower risk-free rate from falling government bond yields, refined beta estimates, and expectations of cleaner assets post-forybearance resolutions.
Balance Sheet Strength Drives Outlook
Analysts project challenges to earnings growth from anticipated Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rate cuts but foresee higher dividend payouts from resolved forbearance and single obligor loan (SOL) exposures alongside rising cash profits.
“Although we expect banks to face challenges in growing earnings… the balance sheet clean-up… will support higher dividend payouts relative to prior years,” the report states, ranking Zenith first, followed by GTCO and AccessCorp.
Key positives include loan write-offs that bolstered asset quality, enabling sustainable growth amid financial system reforms.
Dividend Recovery in Focus
Sector profitability from 2023-2024 was inflated by unrealised foreign exchange gains, which regulations barred from cash dividends, capping payouts despite headline profits.
Zenith historically led payout ratios in 2021-2022 via strong cash generation and capital discipline; Rencap expects a rebound as pressures ease, attracting income-focused investors.
Tier-1 Leadership Reinforced
Zenith Bank recently topped Nigeria’s tier-1 capital rankings for the 16th straight year, per The Banker magazine (Financial Times), affirming its resilience and positioning for long-term value creation.
CBN
- Access Bank Plc
- Fidelity Bank Plc
- First Bank of Nigeria Ltd
- Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank)
- United Bank for Africa (UBA)
- Zenith Bank Plc
- FCMB (First City Monument Bank) – currently pushing to raise additional capital to secure its international licence.
- Wema Bank
- Standard Chartered Bank (Nigeria)
- Citibank Nigeria
- Stanbic IBTC Bank
- Sterling Bank
- Globus Bank
- Premium Trust Bank
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revised the minimum capital applicable to all categories of regulated capital market entities after 10 years.
The minimum capital review, according to the SEC, is informed by the need to strengthen market resilience, enhance investor protection, align capital adequacy with the evolving risk profile of market activities, and ensure that regulated entities possess sufficient financial capacity to discharge their obligations in a sustainable manner.
“The revised Minimum Capital framework seeks to: enhance the financial soundness and operational resilience of market operators; align capital requirements with the scope, complexity, and risk exposure of regulated activities; promote market stability and systemic risk mitigation; and support innovation and orderly development of new market segments, including digital assets and commodities markets,” SEC said in a January 16 circular to market operators.
The SEC circular was sent to all entities regulated by the Commission, including but not limited to core and non-core capital market operators; market infrastructure institutions; capital market consultants; financial technology (FinTech) operators; Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs); and Commodity market intermediaries.
All affected entities are required to comply with the revised Minimum Capital Requirements on or before June 30, 2027, the circular said.
“Entities that fail to meet the prescribed requirements within the stipulated timeline shall be subject to appropriate regulatory sanctions, including suspension or withdrawal of registration, as may be determined by the Commission,” SEC said.
Tier-1 Portfolio Managers (Full Scope) involved in the management of Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) and Alternative Investment Funds (Private Equity, Venture Capital, Infrastructure Funds etc) above N20 billion Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and Non-Discretionary Private Portfolio Management Services above N20 billion Assets under Management (AuM), or exposure to foreign instruments up to 40 percent of the NAV are now required to have a minimum capital of N5 billion as against N150 million.
“Any Fund and Portfolio Manager with NAV/AuM of more than N100billion should have a minimum of 10 percent of the NAV/AuM as capital,” SEC added.
For the Tier-2 fund/portfolio managers (Limited Scope) who are in the business of management of Collective Investment Schemes with limited pooled fund creation of not more than 10 times the required capital (N20 billion) on Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and non-discretionary private portfolio management services of not more than N20 billion, or those exposure to foreign instruments of not more than 20 percent of the NAV, now require N2 billion as minimum capital as against low of N150 million.
Likewise, broker-dealers whose services include: client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services no longer require N300 million minimum capital to operate but N2 billion.
The SEC said the minimum capital review from 2015 low is in line with its mandate under the Investments and Securities Act 2025 to regulate and develop the Nigerian capital market.
Also, Tier 1 issuing houses who do non-interest finance services, advisory & arrangement services but no underwriting now require N2 billion as against N200 million; while Tier 2 –issuing houses with underwriting and offers a ‘one-stop-shop’ for issuers, provides underwriting services, and renders advisory and product development services require N7 billion minimum capital for this business as against N200 million.
Also, the minimum capital requirement for brokers (client execution only) has been jacked up from N200 million to N600 million, while that of dealers (proprietary trading only) has been moved from N100 million to N1 billion.
Broker-Dealers’ (client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services) has been raised from N300 million to N2 billion, while Sub-Brokers’ (Digital) from N10million to N100million; Sub-Broker (Corporate) has been increased from N10million to N50 million. Also, sub-brokers’ (Individual) now need N10 million minimum capital for the business as against N2 million while inter-dealer brokers require N2 billion as against N50 million.
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