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Government Shutdown Still Hurts US Market-ForeTime

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Data in the US got off to a weak start last week, with the Retail Sales figures for September disappointing expectations of a 0.2% rise, having fallen by 0.1%.

The poor figure was somewhat vindicated by the fact that sales dropped only in the auto sector, which weighed on the overall percentage for retail sales as a whole.

Whilst this is still bad news for the US, other sectors outside the auto sector fared relatively well and core sales rose by 0.4% as expected. Consumer Confidence experienced a drastic fall in October, sliding to 71.2 points; despite the fact that forecasts told of a fall, it was estimated that the drop would be from 79.7 to 75 points. The actual figure marked a 6 month low and revealed that Americans were significantly disconcerted in October due to the 16 day government shutdown, as reported by ForexTime.

Employment data also suffered last week, with data released on October 31st showing a gain of just 130K in October, the lowest figure since

May and lower than the anticipated 151K. Jobless claims are finally beginning to be more accurate again, as the backlog created due to a glitch in systems in California in September is finally starting to clear. Jobless claims declined to 340K, much in line with expectations.

The result of the Fed meeting which took place on October 31st was none other than the predicted: the monetary policy was left unchanged and bond buying will remain at $85 billion per month.

The Fed expects to see a more substantial improvement in the economy before modifying the pace of bond purchases.

The current week will reveal the US Annualized GDP which is to be released on November 7th and predicted to rise by 2.0%, the Personal Consumption Expenditures released on the same day and predicted to rise by 0.8% and the Nonfarm Payrolls for October, due out on November 18th and estimated at 130K.

Trouble seems to have arrived in the eurozone’s ace of spades, Germany, with the unemployment change released at 2K for October, double the estimated 1K, making for a total of 2.97 million of the population unemployed. This is the third consecutive month that the German unemployment rate has increased and it clearly spells out a slowdown in the eurozone’s strongest economy.

Further dampening spirits was the eurozone Core Inflation which hit a four year low of 0.7% in October, dropping from September’s 1.1% and remaining substantially below the ECB’s 2% target.

The Core CPI for the eurozone also declined in October, rising by just 0.8% in comparison to September’s 1%.

The euro suffered following the announcement of the negative chain of news last week, trading at 1.3676. On November 7th, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision which is largely expected to stay unchanged, but will also at the same time likely attempt to deliver the message that it will not hesitate to take action to alleviate monetary conditions.

The eurozone is far from safe when it comes to financial difficulties and if ECB President Mario Draghi allows his concern to show during the ECB Press Conference on the 7th, the euro is likely to plunge again.

On the British front, last week seems to have ended on a high, with more and more mortgage approvals adding up to make for a 5 year high of 66,735, indicating a strong economic recovery through the housing sector. The end of the month came with the release of the Gfk Consumer Confidence for September which has continued in its gradual improvement, up to -8 points following on from August’s 5 year high of -10. Nationwide housing prices also skyrocketed according to data released on October 31st, rising by 5.8% and marking a 3 year high whilst acting as a central factor in boosting the UK’s economic recovery.

The most important releases to look out for this week in the UK include the GDP Estimate on November 6th, the Asset Purchase Facility on November 7th which is predicted to stay at £375B and the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision which is expected to remain the same. Estimates foretell that the interest rate is not likely to be raised until 2015 because despite the fact that the UK economy is progressing so rapidly, the unemployment rate is still not at the level desired by the Bank of England.

Japanese households surprised the economy pleasantly according to the September figures released by the Statistics Bureau on October 28th, household spending increasing by 3.7% after declining by 1.6% in August and soaring above expectations of a mere 0.5% rise. Good news followed for the rest of the week, industrial production in Japan also rising by 1.5% and the national unemployment rate declining to 4%, exactly in line with expectations.

The Nomura/ JMMA manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.2 for the month of October, indicating positive movement in the Japanese manufacturing sector. As for the Bank of Japan interest rate, it has remained unchanged at 0.1% as attempts to end the long years of deflation continue. This week, on Tuesday November 5th, the Bank of Japan Monetary Meeting Minutes will be released with comments due to on the state of the economy and the current policies.

 


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E-Financial

CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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New Report Reveals 20% of Nigerians Use Bitcoin to Transact Daily

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A new report claims that 20 per cent of Nigerians are using Bitcoin to carry out financial transactions every day.

According to the open-source blockchain website, Elastos, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, UAE, the UK, and the US.

The interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company and completed between 30 March and 04 April ’24.

The report further revealed that 67 per cent of Nigerians would have more trust in Bitcoin to put their life savings than banks and local governments.

The report reads; “The inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust) – compiled from over 1,400 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents from 7 countries across the globe – sheds light on the actual perception and use of Bitcoin in people’s daily lives, irrespective of its current valuation. Elastos’ BIT Index is part of ongoing research to better track the ‘real world’ use of Bitcoin together with users’ motivations, expectations and barriers around the same.

“In particular, the data reveals the role being played by emerging markets in terms of understanding, usage and confidence around Bitcoin. Nigerian respondents’ levels of usage and trust compare starkly with those expressed from so-called ‘established’ markets such as Germany and the UK and Germany where daily usage levels are just 8% (for German respondents) and (9% for their UK counterparts).

“In terms of the trust – in addition to Nigeria – significant proportions of respondents from Brazil (35 per cent) and the UAE (32 per cent) would have more confidence in Bitcoin-based services to protect their life savings compared to those from markets such as the UK (20 per cent) and Germany (22 per cent).

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin, compared to alternatives. According to the data, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives such as banks, or national Governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.


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Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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