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Will the Naira Ever Return to its Former Glory?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

There was a time when the Naira was worth almost twice as much as the Dollar and equivalent to the British Pound.

Almost three decades later, the local currency is valued at N407 per Dollar and N559 per Pound on the spot rate, N380 per Dollar on the official CBN website. It does not end here. On the black market, the Naira is trading at a paltry N482 per Dollar and as low as N678 to the Pound. Over the past few years, the story defining the Naira’s fall from glory has revolved around multiple exchanges, contradicting statements from officials, Oil prices, shaky economic fundamentals, Dollar scarcity, and pegged exchanges.

Chart Bloomberg Naira spot

Many major institutions have urged Nigeria to unify the multiple exchanges in an effort to promote transparency. The whole drama behind multiple exchanges was triggered by the crude oil crash in 2014 that saw the commodity tumbled almost 50%. Given how more than 90% of foreign-exchange earnings are from oil revenues, the heavy selloff in oil prices exposed Nigeria’s economy to downside shocks.

Rather than devalue the Naira in 2017, the central bank decided to enforce multiple rates for different transactions. There is one rate for government transactions, one rate for investors and exports, another for travellers and SME’s. Indeed, the intention behind this was to improve liquidity and boost Dollar inflows. However, looking at the Naira’s valuation today, ongoing issues with Dollar scarcity and untamed inflation – this move may have done more harm than good.

2020 was an incredibly challenging year for Africa’s largest economy. Although the economy expanded by 0.11% during the final quarter of 2020, full-year growth contracted by 1.92%. As oil revenues evaporated, the Nigerian Naira was devalued twice. Indeed, a weaker Naira would boost government revenue from oil exports – an encouraging development for the economy. If the Naira depreciates, this could boost revenues from crude oil which is sold in Dollar but converted in Naira. Despite the weakening of the spot and black-market rate, the central bank of Nigeria has left the Naira pegged to N380 on its official website.

For the Naira to return to its former glory, could a free-floating currency be the solution? Vice President Yemi Osinbajo said the government is committed to adopting a flexible exchange rate. While an artificially strong exchange could benefit Nigeria based on the fact that most products are imported, the negative impacts outweigh the positive. This continues to be reflected in the Naira’s valuation and health of the economy. When considering how a hefty chunk of foreign exchange reserves is acquired from oil sales, falling oil prices could complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s effort to defend the Naira.

Nigeria continues to face pressure from major institutions to reform its foreign exchange policy with confusion around the country’s multiple exchange rates haunting investor attraction. The question is whether Nigeria will be able to handle the aftermath from a free-floating Naira? The country spends roughly 70% of its revenue servicing public debt. A devaluation of the Naira could mean higher interest rate costs on the Dollar element of Nigeria’s debt will jump in naira terms. The price of electricity and gasoline may be impacted, something that will hit consumers and ultimately impact the economy.

If the natural forces of supply and demand are allowed the determine the equilibrium value of the official Naira exchange rate, this could result in a steep depreciation of the local currency. The rates in the black-market exchange are a testament to this. Such a development could turbocharge inflationary pressures and prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria to tighten monetary policy.

The idea of a unified exchange rate could bolster Nigeria’s economic outlook, offer transparency and rekindle investor attraction towards the country’s assets. But it remains unknown if or when the Naira could return to its former glory, especially when factoring in the domestic economic conditions at home and across the globe.

 

 


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DG NITDA Reiterates Needs for Safe and Inclusive Digital Environment

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To forge strategic partnerships and collaboration for the advancement of Nigeria’s digital transformation Agenda, the Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Kashifu Inuwa has reiterated the need for a safe and inclusive online environment responsible for human and Artificial Intelligence (AI) practices in country.

Inuwa made the statement while playing host to a team from TikTok who visited Agency’s Corporate Headquarters in Abuja to seek alliance towards bolstering the country, which aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu priority area of strengthening national security for peace and prosperity.

The DG stated that content moderation strategies will help in addressing online problems like hate speech, misinformation, and cyberbullying in relation to the protection of minors across the country.

“With the Code of practice for Interactive Computer Service Platforms/Internet Intermediaries in place, this has helped in ensuring digital safety in accordance with global best practice and content moderation to enhance security”, he said.

He further noted that “no organisation or institution can operate in silos, we need each other for the actualisation of our goals and objectives towards services delivery and for the advancement of the Nation.”

Highlighting some critical areas, Inuwa stated that leveraging on the platform will advance the country through Digital Literacy 4 All (DL4ALL), Capacity Building, knowledge sharing, trainings, and curbing misinformation, digital safety with the aim of creating a safer cyber space and empowering online environment for Nigerian users.

He added that the platform allows for creative expression through filters, stickers, and editing tools, entertainment and comedy are dominant themes, and informational videos on various topics are gaining traction which has become a launchpad for influencers and trends that can go viral.

Inuwa also explained that NITDA’s Strategic Roadmap and Action Plan 2.0 (SRAP 2024-2027) is structured around eight pillars which include; Fostering Digital Literacy and Cultivating Talents, Building a Robust Technology Research Ecosystem, Strengthening Policy Implementation and Legal Frameworks, Promoting Inclusive Access to Digital Infrastructure and Services, Enhancing Cybersecurity and Digital Trust, Nurturing an Innovative and Entrepreneurial Ecosystem, Forging Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations, and Cultivating a Vibrant organisational Culture with an Agile Workforce.

In her earlier remarks, the Head of Government Regulation and Public Policy TikTok Nigeria and West Africa, Mrs Tokunbo Ibrahim has revealed that NITDA is one of its biggest and critical stakeholders in Nigeria that has an outstanding strides and performance in advancing the digital economy sector.

Ibrahim commended NITDA for its various initiatives, programmes, and policies set in place and aligns with that of TikTok, providing the opportunity were Nigerians use the platform to market, sell and export their products and services as well as talents to the outside world and make a living out of it.
She pointed out that there are projects and programmes that TikTok platform has forge ties of collaboration with, like the Africa creator hub where they do campaigns for tech creator, support, empower, and educate them on how to create contents and explore other sections of the platform, changing their narrative and adding values to what they are doing.

Ibrahim also added that TikTok platform considers online safety as one of its critical areas to secure the cyber space by providing an avenue for users to thrive and be productive in their various activities.

TikTok is currently running African mall to push the narrative of Africa to the world and creators are being equipped with information that they can create contents for products and services in Nigeria, thus can be exported to other countries of the world attracting investments


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Dr. Adesina, AfDB Group President Calls for Media Transformation to Uplift Africa’s Global Narrative

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Dr Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank Group, delivered an impassioned plea for more balanced media coverage of Africa and its development, noting it was critical for changing false narratives.

Adesina said this on Thursday in a keynote speech to the All Africa’s Media summit in Nairobi, attended by nearly 300 participants from across the continent. He praised the crucial role the media plays in strengthening democracy and advancing inclusivity.

The Bank Group president said there were many positive developments in Africa yet the continent continues to suffer misrepresentations which undermine its economic progress and investment potential.

“Despite the significant progress within our continent, the prevailing media narrative often focuses on negative stereotypes, overlooking the substantial advancements and resilience Africa demonstrates,” he added.

Adesina said there was plenty of positive news to report about and highlighted the continent’s economic resilience regional and amid global challenges. He said that in 2023, Africa’s growth rate surpassed the global average, with 11 African nations ranked among the world’s fastest-growing economies.

Adesina referenced a 2021 Africa No Filter Report, which revealed significant adherence to outdated and negative clichés in media reports about Africa. “It’s time for change,” he declared. “We must reshape the narrative about Africa to reflect its true spirit and potential.”

He emphasised the critical nature of information and its ability to have a profound negative impact on development and investor perceptions even though an in-depth investigation by Moody’s Analytics had shown the continent was much less of a risk than many other continents.

“We must promote a balanced view that highlights both the challenges and the many successes of Africa. It’s about changing perceptions and showcasing Africa as a continent rich with opportunity and innovation.”

The Bank Group President also spoke about the challenges and transformations within the media sector, highlighting the impact of digital technology.

“The media landscape has dramatically shifted with the rise of the internet and mobile technology, leading to a proliferation of digital platforms,” Adesina declared.

“While this has democratised information, it has also complicated issues, the distinction between fact and fiction can become blurred.”

To counter unfair and unbalanced narratives, Adesina urged the creation of a powerful, globally respected African media and proposed strategic collaborations among regional financial institutions to support this cause, emphasising the need for media to act as a catalyst for development.

“We need to celebrate and promote the continent’s successes, turning the tide against the longstanding stereotypes that have clouded the global view of Africa… What you call yourself, is the name others will subscribe to you.”

“For as long as we continually denigrate ourselves and play into the hands of those who control the narrative about Africa, we will be stuck with a label that does not belong to us,” he concluded.

He highlighted the African Development Bank’s own successes which included maintaining a AAA credit rating and launching groundbreaking financial initiatives that have earned it respect as an innovative and successful multilateral development bank.

“We have proven that Africa can lead with innovation and strength in the global financial landscape,” the President remarked. “Yet, these achievements receive minimal attention compared to the persistent focus on Africa’s challenges.”

Adesina added that just one month ago, the Bank launched a landmark $750 million hybrid capital instrument, again with a Triple A rating, which was oversubscribed eight times. He described this as a huge “testament to the confidence and trust in Africa’s burgeoning financial capabilities.”

He pledged that the African Development Bank remained committed to supporting initiatives that would help the media present a more balanced and progressive portrayal of Africa and support its economic development.

In a discussion with Julie Gichuru of the Mastercard Foundation after his address, Adesina said Africa was blessed with energy sources, but millions remained without electricity. “This must change,” he said.

“We cannot industrialise in the dark, we cannot develop in the dark. Our children cannot be competitive in a world of darkness,” he concluded.


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Brands Jostle for CVA 2024 as Consumers Vote

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Ongoing voting for brands on the Consumers Value Awards portals, consumers expressed brand satisfaction with their votes.

Over 40 categories of brands are listed based on consumers’ nominations on the Consumers Value Awards portal for voting as Value-for-Money brands in the 2024 edition of the award.

Consumers cast votes for brands to express satisfaction among various brands.

Presenting the one-month result, Akonte Ekine, CEO of BrandXchange, said the initiative is transparent and objective. It’s the consumer position on brands as nomination and voting drive the platform.

According to him, in the Telecommunications category (MNOs), MTN leads with 51.1% of the votes recorded in the first month, Spectranet has 47.6% of the votes in the Internet Service Provider segment, and MTN has 69.2% votes for ISP under the MNOs.

In the ongoing 3rd edition voting, two new categories of sanitary pad and Ice Cream are experiencing consumers’ attention as Always Sanitary Pad leads the segment with 63.6%, Just Delight Ice Cream at 36.2% and Viva Detergent at 41.7%.

Other leaders on the voting platform of Consumers Value Awards based on consumer preferences in the first month under home appliances (Television, Refrigerator, Air conditioner and washing machine) are Samsung 40%, Haiier Termocool 40%, Lontor 40% and Haier Termocool 42.9% respectively.

Trophy leads Alcohol Beverage with 50% of the votes, and Pepsi takes 62.5% of ⁠Carbonated Drinks. It is a tie among consumers on the cooking oil and regular Toot paste as Kings Oil and Power Oil achieved the same vote of 50%, Colgate Toothpaste and Close Up Toothpaste also tied with 26.7% votes each in the categories while Dabur Toothpaste leads in the herbal toothpaste category with 55.6%.

Lafarge Cement leads with 62.5% in the Cement, Dangote Sugar has 55% of the votes in Sugar, Leadway Insurance has 57.1%, Eva leads the Table water category with 38.5%

Other leaders in various segments based on consumer votes on the Consumers Value awards platforms are Maltina 40%, Dettol 37.5%, Peak Milk 80%, Golden Penny Spaghetti 80%, Indomie Noodle 85.7%, Checkers 90%, GTB 66.7%, OPay 62.5%, Morning Fresh 62.5%, and Gala Sausage Roll 94.4%.

Also, knorr Cube 57.1%, Lipton Tea Bag 83.3%, Vaseline 71.4% and Golden Morn lead their sectors, Milo and Bournvita tied with 50% of the vote each as leaders alongside MTN and Cadbury tying with 40% votes under Consumer-Friendly brands.

Vitafoam 44.4%, Guinness Stout 83.3%, Mobil Engine oil 100% (International Engine Oil Brand), Oleum Oil 100% (Made in Nigeria Brand), Hypo and Harpic 50%, Fearless 33.3%, Abidec 80%, Reload Kids 60% Reload Adult 66.6%, and Bet 9ja 50%

The voting will close on 30th June 2024.

 


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