General News
Agusto & Co: The State of the Nigerian Electric Power Industry
As the Electric Power Industry (the Industry) announced yet another review of electric tariffs in January 2021, after much deliberation and delays, a key question that comes to mind is ‘will a rise in tariffs result in better power supply?’ To answer this question it is imperative to examine the state of the Industry post-privatisation.
Since the privatisation exercise that commenced in 2013, the Nigerian Electric Power Industry has remained fraught with many of the same challenges ranging from unreflective tariffs to high loss levels, obsolete infrastructure, weak policy implementation and gas shortages.
All of these have culminated in weak and erratic power supply and a dependence on self-generation by many businesses and households. Furthermore, electricity distribution in Nigeria remains plagued by high technical, operational and commercial inefficiencies.
In 2020, the country’s 11 Distribution companies (DisCos) only billed for 74% of the energy received from the transmission company, below the 81% reported in the prior year. Billing efficiency which has historically been impaired by a low metering rate and energy theft, with only 37% of registered electricity customers metered in 2020, was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Agusto & Co believes the impact of the pandemic was more visible amongst consumer groups with post-paid meters and estimated bills given that the social distancing rules and movement restrictions established to curb the spread of the virus impaired the physical billing process. Collection efficiency also fell marginally to 66% from 68% one year prior.
Consequently, the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses for the 11 DisCos rose to 51% in 2020 from 45% in 2019. This high loss level remains one of the many reasons for the kickback from electricity consumers on tariff increases, especially in the absence of a significant and immediate improvement in power supply.
Agusto & Co notes that these challenges have not only weakened the ability of operators to meet electricity demand but also threaten their financial viability, with significant implications for the fiscal health of the country. Despite the series of amendments to the tariff structure, cash flows from MYTO (the Multi Year Tariff Order) have remained insufficient to fully cover the costs of electricity supplied.
The fear of the impact of a ‘rate shock’ on consumers and the accompanying loss of “political capital” has prevented the effective implementation of necessary amendments that will align the MYTO’s assumptions with economic realities. Electricity has thus consistently been sold at a discount, with end-user electricity tariffs much lower than the cost of electricity supplied.
The shortfall from unreflective tariffs has been borne in large parts by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) through multiple intervention funds and payment assurance facilities from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) totaling close to ₦2 trillion (US$4.9 billion ) as at the end of 2020, equivalent to c.6% of CBN’s balance sheet. Despite this level of intervention, the generating companies had estimated receivables of over ₦400 billion in 2020 alone. Whilst the interventions have been central in ensuring the profitability of operators along the Industry’s value chain, they remain insufficient and unsustainable.
More recently, there have been notable efforts by the primary regulator – NERC – to minimise the challenges faced by operators in the Industry. In particular, tariffs have been raised to near cost reflective levels and adjusted to match consumption via an initiative dubbed Service Reflective Tariffs (SRT).
The new tariff model as the name indicates is expected to reflect and match the quality of service received by the ultimate consumers of electricity. Distribution companies will therefore discriminate in the application of tariffs; consumers who enjoy longer daily supply will be expected to pay higher rates and vice versa.
The SRT like other MYTO models has key estimates (and projections) for macroeconomic and industry-specific indicators including inflation, exchange rates and electricity generation. Other company-dependent factors considered in the determination of tariffs include the amount of electricity received and the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses.
Ultimately, tariff shortfalls (the difference between end-user tariffs and cost reflective tariffs) are expected to taper off by the end of 2022, with tariffs fully reflective and sufficient to cover the cost of production.
Whilst a number of the assumptions align with market realities, we note that the inflation and electricity generation estimates in the SRT model are much higher than the actual entries reported for the corresponding periods.
In our view, these disparities have the potential to impair the attainment of cost reflectiveness. Agusto & Co believes adopting scenario analysis and modelling will provide a more robust framework to determine an appropriate tariff structure for the Industry in a dynamic macroeconomic environment such as Nigeria’s.
In addition to the SRT, the primary regulator – the National Electricity Commission (NERC) – introduced a minimum remittance threshold for each distribution company which stipulates a mandatory payment that must be made to the bulk trader for electricity received.
Furthermore, in February 2020, NERC introduced guidelines for ‘Merit Order Dispatching’ which involves ranking electricity generation and dispatch by the transmission company of Nigeria (TCN) in ascending order of costs with the cheapest electricity – such as those from Hydro plants with no fuel cost component – ahead of more expensive plants.
The order also provides guidelines on the alignment of invoicing for capacity charge and energy delivered as well as a framework for the settlement of any imbalance between DisCos and TCN.
The Merit Dispatching Order should eliminate the shift of responsibility for load rejection prevalent between DisCos and the TCN and improve the technical and operational efficiencies of these operators.
In August 2020, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a circular that all deposit money banks are expected to warehouse and manage collection inflows from all distribution companies – DisCos, (including the collection agents of these DisCos) under specific guidelines as contained in the document. The objective of this ‘ring fencing’ is to secure cash collected from the DisCos and ensure that these distribution companies meet their mandatory obligations.
While operators are generally optimistic that the new tariffs and accompanying regulations would enhance efficiency and position the Industry on the trajectory towards achieving financial independence and ultimately improvements in the volume and quality of electricity supply, Agusto & Co remains cautious.
In our view, to truly achieve the objectives of privatisation, reforms need to be accompanied by a strong and enabling regulatory environment. Furthermore, improved access to finance, efficiency in billing and metering as well as consistent and secure gas supply are vital to reap the benefits of privatization in the long run.
While the journey to constant electric power supply remains far and long-winded, Agusto & Co believes the initiatives undertaken by the primary regulator – NERC– if consistently enforced have the potential to move the Industry forward in the right direction.
National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), has explained why kidnappers and terrorists are not always traceable despite the country’s expanding digital identity infrastructure.
NIMC explanation pointed to a simple but significant gap in the system.
Abisoye Coker-Odusote, director-general of the agency said that: “A lot of the time, you find out the kidnappers use the phones of the people they have abducted, which means how do you trace them because they are not using their own phones?” she said.
Coker-Odusote spoke during an appearance on Channels Television, where she was asked to explain why criminals remain difficult to trace despite the mandatory NIN-SIM linkage policy.
She said criminals frequently frustrate investigations by using mobile phones belonging to their victims, instead of their own registered lines.
“We already know the NIN is the foundational identity for the security architecture, but a lot of the time, you find out the kidnappers use the phones of the people they have abducted. Which means, how do you trace them because they are not using their own phones?” she said.
She also suggested that some criminal elements involved in kidnapping operations may not even be captured in Nigeria’s identity database.
“There is a theory that it may be possible that these kidnappers are not Nigerians and are brought into the country 48 or 72 hours before a kidnapping takes place specifically for that purpose. I’m not insinuating anything, but if that were the case, they naturally would not be captured in our database,” she added.
The comments have revived questions about whether expectations placed on the NIN-SIM linkage have exceeded what the system was designed to deliver.
The NIN-SIM linkage exercise was introduced by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in collaboration with NIMC to strengthen identity management, eliminate anonymous SIM ownership and support national security.
Over the years, the exercise resulted in millions of subscribers linking their SIM cards with their National Identification Numbers, while telecom operators also deactivated millions of lines that failed to comply with regulatory directives.
Earlier, the NCC maintained that the policy was aimed at improving the integrity of Nigeria’s SIM registration database, strengthening identity verification and supporting security agencies in criminal investigations.
The regulator also described the exercise as an important component of the country’s digital economy and national security framework.
Telecommunications operators have consistently maintained that while they play a critical role in implementing the NIN-SIM linkage policy, they are not responsible for tracking criminals.
Quest Merchant Bank recently hosted the second edition of the Great Place to Work® Nigeria Study Mission, reaffirming its commitment to fostering a high-performance workplace culture and advancing people-centric leadership practices.
The Study Mission serves as a collaborative learning platform that brings together Great Place to Work® Certified organizations to exchange insights, share best practices, and strengthen workplace cultures.
The event welcomed Human Resources leaders and representatives from FITC, Princeps Credit Systems, Tonic Technologies and Esentry Limited for an engaging and insightful session focused on building thriving workplace cultures, promoting continuous learning, and advancing employee-centric practices that drive organizational success.
Speaking at the event, Tolulope Dayo-Peters, Head of People Management, emphasized the importance of continuous learning and collaboration in building sustainable workplace cultures.
“We are delighted to host the second edition of the Great Place to Work® Nigeria Study Mission. At Quest Merchant Bank, we believe building a great workplace is an ongoing journey rooted in trust, purposeful leadership, and a genuine commitment to our people.
“We are pleased to share the practices that have shaped our culture and look forward to more opportunities to learn and collaborate with like-minded organizations.”
Also speaking at the event, Afolabi Olorode, Acting Managing Director/CEO, Quest Merchant Bank Limited, highlighted the critical role workplace culture plays in driving long-term business success.
“We recognize that a strong workplace culture is fundamental to sustainable business success. Creating an environment where our people are empowered to grow, innovate, and perform at their best enables us to consistently deliver value to our clients and stakeholders. We are proud to support initiatives like the Great Place to Work® Nigeria Study Mission that encourage organizations to learn from one another and collectively raise the standard of workplace excellence in Nigeria.”
The Study Mission reinforced the importance of collaboration among organizations committed to creating exceptional employee experiences.
By providing a platform for open dialogue, peer learning, and the exchange of practical ideas, the initiative enabled participants to explore innovative approaches to employee engagement, organizational culture, leadership development, and talent management while strengthening a growing community of employers dedicated to workplace excellence.
Hosting the Great Place to Work® Nigeria Study Mission further strengthens Quest Merchant Bank’s position as a thought leader in workplace culture and talent management.
It also enhances the Bank’s employer brand and demonstrates its unwavering commitment to creating an environment where employees can grow, innovate, and achieve their full potential.
Quest Merchant Bank remains committed to championing initiatives that promote learning, innovation, and people-centric leadership. Through strategic partnerships and knowledge-sharing platforms such as the Great Place to Work® Nigeria Study Mission, the Bank continues to contribute to the advancement of exceptional workplace cultures and the future of work across Nigeria’s corporate landscape.
Nigeria Hydrological Service Agency (NIHSA) has warned of possible floods in parts of Adamawa, Bauchi, Edo, Imo, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Kaduna, Plateau, Niger, Benue, and Borno states within the next seven days.
According to information posted on NIHSA X handle, the Agency announced medium flood advisory in force for the next 7 days across Adamawa, Bauchi, and 11 other States.
“Localised inundation is forecast along the main channel; named communities below sit on the projected footprint. Stations: Saminara on the Karam river, Waya Dam Site on the Waya river, Amber on the Amber river.
“Adamawa; Lemsa, Lamurde, Numan Exposure: 147 comm. 49 schis 40 hith 6 mkts17 relig. Bauchi-Bauchi, Ningi, Shira. Exposure: 4 comm. Kaduna; Chikun, Giwa, Igabi, Jaba, Jema’a, Kachia, Kaura, Kauru, +6 more. Exposure: 1 comm.
“Borno-Gubio, Mobbar. Exposure: 680 comm. 8 schls 6 hith 5 mkts 21 relig. Edo-Akoko-Ed, EtsakoEa, EtsakoWe, Ikpoba-Okha, Orhionmw, OviaNort, OviaSo.. Exposure: 3 comm.
“Imo-Aboh-Mba, Oguta, Ohaji/Eg, Okigwe, Owerri North, Owerri West. Exposure: 3 comm. 7 more states affected and severity LGAs”.
NIHSA advised people in the affected areas to “do NOT cross flooded roads, bridges, or fast-moving water on foot or by vehicle.
“Clear drainage channels and river-mouth blockages; avoid building or living in the floodplain and move people, livestock and valuables from the floodplain to pre-identified higher ground,” NIHSA stated.
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