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Agusto & Co: The State of the Nigerian Electric Power Industry

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As the Electric Power Industry (the Industry) announced yet another review of electric tariffs in January 2021, after much deliberation and delays, a key question that comes to mind is ‘will a rise in tariffs result in better power supply?’ To answer this question it is imperative to examine the state of the Industry post-privatisation.

Since the privatisation exercise that commenced in 2013, the Nigerian Electric Power Industry has remained fraught with many of the same challenges ranging from unreflective tariffs to high loss levels, obsolete infrastructure, weak policy implementation and gas shortages.

All of these have culminated in weak and erratic power supply and a dependence on self-generation by many businesses and households. Furthermore, electricity distribution in Nigeria remains plagued by high technical, operational and commercial inefficiencies.

In 2020, the country’s 11 Distribution companies (DisCos) only billed for 74% of the energy received from the transmission company, below the 81% reported in the prior year. Billing efficiency which has historically been impaired by a low metering rate and energy theft, with only 37% of registered electricity customers metered in 2020, was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Agusto & Co believes the impact of the pandemic was more visible amongst consumer groups with post-paid meters and estimated bills given that the social distancing rules and movement restrictions established to curb the spread of the virus impaired the physical billing process. Collection efficiency also fell marginally to 66% from 68% one year prior.

Consequently, the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses for the 11 DisCos rose to 51% in 2020 from 45% in 2019. This high loss level remains one of the many reasons for the kickback from electricity consumers on tariff increases, especially in the absence of a significant and immediate improvement in power supply.

Agusto & Co notes that these challenges have not only weakened the ability of operators to meet electricity demand but also threaten their financial viability, with significant implications for the fiscal health of the country. Despite the series of amendments to the tariff structure, cash flows from MYTO (the Multi Year Tariff Order) have remained insufficient to fully cover the costs of electricity supplied.

The fear of the impact of a ‘rate shock’ on consumers and the accompanying loss of “political capital” has prevented the effective implementation of necessary amendments that will align the MYTO’s assumptions with economic realities. Electricity has thus consistently been sold at a discount, with end-user electricity tariffs much lower than the cost of electricity supplied.

The shortfall from unreflective tariffs has been borne in large parts by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) through multiple intervention funds and payment assurance facilities from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) totaling close to ₦2 trillion  (US$4.9 billion ) as at the end of 2020, equivalent to c.6% of CBN’s balance sheet. Despite this level of intervention, the generating companies had estimated receivables of over ₦400 billion in 2020 alone. Whilst the interventions have been central in ensuring the profitability of operators along the Industry’s value chain, they remain insufficient and unsustainable.

More recently, there have been notable efforts by the primary regulator – NERC – to minimise the challenges faced by operators in the Industry. In particular, tariffs have been raised to near cost reflective levels and adjusted to match consumption via an initiative dubbed Service Reflective Tariffs (SRT).

The new tariff model as the name indicates is expected to reflect and match the quality of service received by the ultimate consumers of electricity. Distribution companies will therefore discriminate in the application of tariffs; consumers who enjoy longer daily supply will be expected to pay higher rates and vice versa.

The SRT like other MYTO models has key estimates (and projections) for macroeconomic and industry-specific indicators including inflation, exchange rates and electricity generation. Other company-dependent factors considered in the determination of tariffs include the amount of electricity received and the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses.

Ultimately, tariff shortfalls (the difference between end-user tariffs and cost reflective tariffs) are expected to taper off by the end of 2022, with tariffs fully reflective and sufficient to cover the cost of production.

Whilst a number of the assumptions align with market realities, we note that the inflation and electricity generation estimates in the SRT model are much higher than the actual entries reported for the corresponding periods.

In our view, these disparities have the potential to impair the attainment of cost reflectiveness. Agusto & Co believes adopting scenario analysis and modelling will provide a more robust framework to determine an appropriate tariff structure for the Industry in a dynamic macroeconomic environment such as Nigeria’s.

In addition to the SRT, the primary regulator – the National Electricity Commission (NERC) – introduced a minimum remittance threshold for each distribution company which stipulates a mandatory payment that must be made to the bulk trader for electricity received.

Furthermore, in February 2020, NERC introduced guidelines for ‘Merit Order Dispatching’ which involves ranking electricity generation and dispatch by the transmission company of Nigeria (TCN) in ascending order of costs with the cheapest electricity – such as those from Hydro plants with no fuel cost component – ahead of more expensive plants.

The order also provides guidelines on the alignment of invoicing for capacity charge and energy delivered as well as a framework for the settlement of any imbalance between DisCos and TCN.

The Merit Dispatching Order should eliminate the shift of responsibility for load rejection prevalent between DisCos and the TCN and improve the technical and operational efficiencies of these operators.

In August 2020, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a circular that all deposit money banks are expected to warehouse and manage collection inflows from all distribution companies – DisCos, (including the collection agents of these DisCos) under specific guidelines as contained in the document. The objective of this ‘ring fencing’ is to secure cash collected from the DisCos and ensure that these distribution companies meet their mandatory obligations.

While operators are generally optimistic that the new tariffs and accompanying regulations would enhance efficiency and position the Industry on the trajectory towards achieving financial independence and ultimately improvements in the volume and quality of electricity supply, Agusto & Co remains cautious.

In our view, to truly achieve the objectives of privatisation, reforms need to be accompanied by a strong and enabling regulatory environment. Furthermore, improved access to finance, efficiency in billing and metering as well as consistent and secure gas supply are vital to reap the benefits of privatization in the long run.

While the journey to constant electric power supply remains far and long-winded, Agusto & Co believes the initiatives undertaken by the primary regulator – NERC– if consistently enforced have the potential to move the Industry forward in the right direction.


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Indwelt Studios Seeks Increased Awareness @ World Sickle Cell Day

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Every June 19th, the world pauses to recognize something that, for millions of families, never pauses at all. World Sickle Cell Day is observed across the globe to bring sickle cell disease out of the shadows; to name it, to understand it, and to stand with the people who live with it every single day.

This year, the world marks the day under the theme “Closing the Survival Gap: Equity in Sickle Cell Disease.” It’s a phrase that asks a hard, necessary question: why should where you’re born, or what your family can afford, decide whether you live well, or live at all?

For us at Indwelt, that question isn’t abstract. It has names and faces we know.

Why this day means something to us;

Here in Nigeria, sickle cell isn’t a distant statistic. Our country carries the heaviest burden of the disease anywhere in the world; roughly 150,000 babies are born with it here each year, and millions of Nigerians live with it into adulthood. Behind those numbers are real people: managing pain that often goes unseen, navigating crises that arrive without warning, and carrying on with a quiet courage that most of us will never fully understand.

Some of those people are our colleagues.

Since our inception, we’ve had and still have team members who live with sickle cell. They show up, they create, they pour themselves into the work we’re proud to put our name on; and they do it while carrying something most of us never have to think about.

Our team member with sickle cell, put it to us simply:

“People see the work I deliver, but they don’t see the days I show up after a night I didn’t think I’d get through. Sickle cell is part of my story, but it isn’t the whole of me; and being a part of an organization that understands that, supports me and let’s me do work I’m proud of continues to make a difference for me. I don’t want sympathy. I want a world that takes this seriously enough to change the odds for the next person.”

Supporting them, through medical interventions and through simply being a workplace that sees them fully, has never felt like a policy or a perk. It’s felt like family looking after family.

That’s where our commitment began. Not in a boardroom, but in the everyday reality of caring for our own.

If you’ve ever asked; this is the reason we’ve chosen to anchor our Corporate Social responsibility around sickle cell, supporting initiatives that improve care, and backing the research working toward a future where this disease no longer steals so many years from so many lives.

We believe the survival gap can close. We’ve seen what changes when someone living with sickle cell is met with the right care, the right understanding, and the right support; they don’t just survive, they thrive. They build, they lead, they make beautiful things. We know this because we work alongside them.

So, our promise is simple: to put our resources, our voice, and our craft behind the people and the science fighting for better outcomes. To keep learning. To keep listening to those who live this reality. And to use whatever reach we have to make sure that, in this country with the world’s heaviest burden, no one feels they’re carrying it alone.

For someone living with sickle cell, care that comes to you and care you can actually afford aren’t luxuries; they’re often the difference between a crisis managed and a crisis survived. We’re proud to walk alongside teams doing that quiet, necessary work.

To anyone living with sickle cell, today and every day; we see your strength; including the kind that doesn’t look like strength, the kind that’s just getting through a hard day and showing up for the next one. You are not your diagnosis. You are not a burden. You are someone we’re honoured to stand beside.

And to everyone reading: you don’t need a CSR budget to make a difference today. Learn what sickle cell really is. Know your genotype. Have the conversation. Give blood if you can. Be gentle with the people around you who may be carrying more than they let on.

Awareness is where compassion begins; and compassion, multiplied, is how survival gaps close.

This World Sickle Cell Day, we’re thinking of our own. And we’re committed to doing our part, not just today, but in all the days that follow.

To our clients, we owe a particular thank you. Every brief you trust us with, every project we build together, every time you choose Indwelt; you are doing more than growing your business. You are helping fund the care, the awareness, and the research behind this cause. The work we do for you is quietly working for someone living with sickle cell, too. That partnership means more to us than you may realise, and we’re deeply grateful for it.

Awareness is where compassion begins; and compassion, multiplied, is how survival gaps close. This World Sickle Cell Day, we’re thinking of our own. And we’re committed to doing our part, not just today, but in all the days that follow.


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Police Uncovers N7.7Bn Telecom Data Fraud Syndicate, Recovers Assets Worth Millions

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Nigeria Police Force National Cybercrime Centre (NPF-NCCC) has uncovered a major telecommunications fraud syndicate accused of compromising a telecom company’s billing infrastructure and fraudulently generating data valued at more than N7.7 billion.

Police Uncovers N7.7Bn Telecom Data Fraud Syndicate, Recovers Assets Worth Millions

The breakthrough led to the arrest of several suspects and the recovery of assets believed to be proceeds of the crime, including nearly N90 million in cash, two residential houses, a mini-plaza, and a Toyota RAV4 vehicle.

In a statement issued on Thursday, June 18, 2026,  DSP Unwana Imah, Police Public Liaison Officer of the NPF-NCCC, disclosed that investigations revealed the involvement of both insider collaborators and external accomplices in the large-scale cyber fraud operation.

According to the statement, the investigation was launched following a petition by a leading telecommunications service provider, which reported the unauthorized use of staff login credentials and a breach of its network billing system.

Preliminary findings showed that between October 1 and November 28, 2024, the suspects unlawfully accessed the company’s billing infrastructure and generated fraudulent airtime.

The airtime was subsequently converted into data bundles and distributed through a network of vendors operating across the country.

The criminal operation reportedly caused losses running into billions of naira before it was detected by the telecom provider, which promptly alerted security agencies.

“The Nigeria Police Force through the Nigeria Police Force National Cybercrime Centre (NPF-NCCC) has recorded significant progress in the investigation of a case involving Computer Related Fraud, Unauthorized Access to Computer Systems, and Theft of Telecom Services,” the statement said.

During the course of the investigation, operatives arrested several suspects and recovered more than 400 laptops, 1,000 mobile phones, Point of Sale (POS) machines, cash exhibits, and other evidential materials.

The telecommunications company was also able to reverse approximately 2,931.79 terabytes of fraudulently obtained data, valued at about N3.8 billion.

Further investigations uncovered the participation of insiders working alongside external collaborators to execute the scheme.

In a second phase of operations carried out in May 2026, NPF-NCCC operatives acted on intelligence and conducted coordinated raids across Kano, Katsina, and Zamfara states, leading to the arrest of key suspects identified as Musa Muhammed Kwandi, Nura Sadauki, and Aminu Muhammed.

Other suspects arrested include IT specialist Musa Hassan Mohammed, Samson Alisigwe, and Yusuf Shehu, all of whom are believed to have benefited from the proceeds of the fraud.

Through extensive financial investigations and asset tracing efforts, police recovered almost N90 million and seized properties linked to the alleged criminal enterprise.

The NPF-NCCC said investigations are ongoing to identify additional accomplices, trace more proceeds of the crime, and ensure that all individuals found culpable are prosecuted.

Olatunji Rilwan Disu, Inspector-General of Police (IGP) reaffirmed the Nigeria Police Force’s commitment to safeguarding the nation’s critical digital infrastructure and intensifying efforts to combat cybercrime across the country.


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AfreximBank Urges Nigeria, Others to Strengthen Continental Trade

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The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has urged Nigeria and the rest of Africa to strengthen intra-African trade and resilience to protect against geopolitical shocks.

In a recently released Trade and Development Finance Brief, titled: ‘Africa’s Trade and Investment Landscape’, which examines the structural challenges shaping Africa’s trade performance and investment outlook in an increasingly uncertain global environment, it pointed out that Africa’s trade landscape remained heavily dominated by the export of raw materials, including agricultural products, oil, gas and minerals.

The report, however, regretted that imports continued to be heavily skewed towards manufactured goods and machinery.

The report noted that the existing export-import configuration leaves many African economies overly exposed to unfavourable terms of trade shock on account of external headwinds, including commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions and associated global supply chain disruptions.

According to the report, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) remained central to efforts aimed at diversifying the continent’s trade base, strengthening regional value chains and increasing intra-African trade.

It further expressed that alongside the African Union’s Agenda 2063, the AfCFTA provides a practical framework for integrating fragmented markets, expanding industrial production and boosting productivity, with intra-African exports projected to increase by more than 20 per cent within a decade as implementation advances.

Also, the report further highlighted the importance of scaling investment in trade-enabling infrastructure, including energy, transport, communications networks, ports and logistics systems, to reduce the cost of doing business and improve cross-border trade flows.

It expressed that targeted infrastructure investment could support industrialisation, strengthen regional specialisation and improve Africa’s competitiveness as an investment destination.

It also pointed to a wider set of priorities for strengthening the continent’s trade and investment ecosystem, including regulatory coherence, institutional strengthening, economic diversification, improved access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises and greater use of digital financial technologies.

Besides, the report stated that domestic and foreign investment were increasing across many African economies, notwithstanding the observed dominance of foreign investment.

It further mentioned that the direction of investment flows was uneven across sub-regions, with Eastern and Southern Africa receiving a larger share of foreign direct investment compared to Western and Central Africa.

Afreximbank said the findings reinforced the need for coordinated action to expand trade finance, improve trade-enabling infrastructure, deepen regional integration and accelerate value addition across the continent.

Managing Director, Research for AfreximBank, Dr Yemi Kale, said regional development finance institutions, including AfreximBank, were playing an increasing role in supporting intra-African trade through trade finance and related initiatives.

 


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