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Agusto & Co: The State of the Nigerian Electric Power Industry

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As the Electric Power Industry (the Industry) announced yet another review of electric tariffs in January 2021, after much deliberation and delays, a key question that comes to mind is ‘will a rise in tariffs result in better power supply?’ To answer this question it is imperative to examine the state of the Industry post-privatisation.

Since the privatisation exercise that commenced in 2013, the Nigerian Electric Power Industry has remained fraught with many of the same challenges ranging from unreflective tariffs to high loss levels, obsolete infrastructure, weak policy implementation and gas shortages.

All of these have culminated in weak and erratic power supply and a dependence on self-generation by many businesses and households. Furthermore, electricity distribution in Nigeria remains plagued by high technical, operational and commercial inefficiencies.

In 2020, the country’s 11 Distribution companies (DisCos) only billed for 74% of the energy received from the transmission company, below the 81% reported in the prior year. Billing efficiency which has historically been impaired by a low metering rate and energy theft, with only 37% of registered electricity customers metered in 2020, was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Agusto & Co believes the impact of the pandemic was more visible amongst consumer groups with post-paid meters and estimated bills given that the social distancing rules and movement restrictions established to curb the spread of the virus impaired the physical billing process. Collection efficiency also fell marginally to 66% from 68% one year prior.

Consequently, the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses for the 11 DisCos rose to 51% in 2020 from 45% in 2019. This high loss level remains one of the many reasons for the kickback from electricity consumers on tariff increases, especially in the absence of a significant and immediate improvement in power supply.

Agusto & Co notes that these challenges have not only weakened the ability of operators to meet electricity demand but also threaten their financial viability, with significant implications for the fiscal health of the country. Despite the series of amendments to the tariff structure, cash flows from MYTO (the Multi Year Tariff Order) have remained insufficient to fully cover the costs of electricity supplied.

The fear of the impact of a ‘rate shock’ on consumers and the accompanying loss of “political capital” has prevented the effective implementation of necessary amendments that will align the MYTO’s assumptions with economic realities. Electricity has thus consistently been sold at a discount, with end-user electricity tariffs much lower than the cost of electricity supplied.

The shortfall from unreflective tariffs has been borne in large parts by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) through multiple intervention funds and payment assurance facilities from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) totaling close to ₦2 trillion  (US$4.9 billion ) as at the end of 2020, equivalent to c.6% of CBN’s balance sheet. Despite this level of intervention, the generating companies had estimated receivables of over ₦400 billion in 2020 alone. Whilst the interventions have been central in ensuring the profitability of operators along the Industry’s value chain, they remain insufficient and unsustainable.

More recently, there have been notable efforts by the primary regulator – NERC – to minimise the challenges faced by operators in the Industry. In particular, tariffs have been raised to near cost reflective levels and adjusted to match consumption via an initiative dubbed Service Reflective Tariffs (SRT).

The new tariff model as the name indicates is expected to reflect and match the quality of service received by the ultimate consumers of electricity. Distribution companies will therefore discriminate in the application of tariffs; consumers who enjoy longer daily supply will be expected to pay higher rates and vice versa.

The SRT like other MYTO models has key estimates (and projections) for macroeconomic and industry-specific indicators including inflation, exchange rates and electricity generation. Other company-dependent factors considered in the determination of tariffs include the amount of electricity received and the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses.

Ultimately, tariff shortfalls (the difference between end-user tariffs and cost reflective tariffs) are expected to taper off by the end of 2022, with tariffs fully reflective and sufficient to cover the cost of production.

Whilst a number of the assumptions align with market realities, we note that the inflation and electricity generation estimates in the SRT model are much higher than the actual entries reported for the corresponding periods.

In our view, these disparities have the potential to impair the attainment of cost reflectiveness. Agusto & Co believes adopting scenario analysis and modelling will provide a more robust framework to determine an appropriate tariff structure for the Industry in a dynamic macroeconomic environment such as Nigeria’s.

In addition to the SRT, the primary regulator – the National Electricity Commission (NERC) – introduced a minimum remittance threshold for each distribution company which stipulates a mandatory payment that must be made to the bulk trader for electricity received.

Furthermore, in February 2020, NERC introduced guidelines for ‘Merit Order Dispatching’ which involves ranking electricity generation and dispatch by the transmission company of Nigeria (TCN) in ascending order of costs with the cheapest electricity – such as those from Hydro plants with no fuel cost component – ahead of more expensive plants.

The order also provides guidelines on the alignment of invoicing for capacity charge and energy delivered as well as a framework for the settlement of any imbalance between DisCos and TCN.

The Merit Dispatching Order should eliminate the shift of responsibility for load rejection prevalent between DisCos and the TCN and improve the technical and operational efficiencies of these operators.

In August 2020, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a circular that all deposit money banks are expected to warehouse and manage collection inflows from all distribution companies – DisCos, (including the collection agents of these DisCos) under specific guidelines as contained in the document. The objective of this ‘ring fencing’ is to secure cash collected from the DisCos and ensure that these distribution companies meet their mandatory obligations.

While operators are generally optimistic that the new tariffs and accompanying regulations would enhance efficiency and position the Industry on the trajectory towards achieving financial independence and ultimately improvements in the volume and quality of electricity supply, Agusto & Co remains cautious.

In our view, to truly achieve the objectives of privatisation, reforms need to be accompanied by a strong and enabling regulatory environment. Furthermore, improved access to finance, efficiency in billing and metering as well as consistent and secure gas supply are vital to reap the benefits of privatization in the long run.

While the journey to constant electric power supply remains far and long-winded, Agusto & Co believes the initiatives undertaken by the primary regulator – NERC– if consistently enforced have the potential to move the Industry forward in the right direction.


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.NG Domain is Nigeria’s Pride Online – Akinsanya

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The .ng domain name, Nigeria’s country code top-level domain (ccTLD), is the nation’s critical resource in the digital space, says Adesola Akinsanya, the president of the Nigeria Internet Registration Association (NiRA).

Akintola Owolabi, Professor of Cost and Management Accounting at Lagos Business School (front – third from left; Adesola Akinsanya, the president of the Nigeria Internet Registration Association (NiRA) (Front – fourth from right), flanked by members of EBOD and Management Team of NiRA during a training programme at LBS.

The .ng domain extension is unique to Nigeria, and it can give businesses a strong local identity.

This can help establish trust with customers, which is especially important for businesses that rely on local customers.

Mr. Akinsanya made the comments at NiRA Executive Board of Directors (EBOD) and Management Training held at the Lagos Business School (LBS).

The NiRA Executive Board and Management Training at LBS spanned a series of intensive interactive sessions designed to address critical challenges and opportunities in the digital domain.

The training program emphasized the importance of strategic vision, ethical decision-making, and resilience in the face of digital disruptions.

Participants gained insights into global best practices in digital governance, risk management, and leveraging digital technologies for business growth and societal impact.

Mr. Akinsanya, highlighted the significance of the collaboration with LBS, stating, “The NiRA EBOD/Management Training at LBS underscores our commitment to fostering a robust digital ecosystem in Nigeria. It equips leaders with the expertise to address complex digital challenges especially in accounting and financial management while harnessing the immense opportunities of the digital age.”

The program featured distinguished speakers, industry practitioners, and faculty members from LBS, providing a holistic learning experience enriched with real-world case studies and practical insights.

Participants commended the program for its relevance, depth of content, and interactive learning approach, noting its immediate applicability to their roles and responsibilities.

The NiRA EBOD Training at LBS represents a milestone in advancing digital leadership and governance in Nigeria.

“By equipping leaders with cutting-edge knowledge and strategic insights, the program contributes to building a resilient and innovative digital ecosystem that drives sustainable growth and societal development, especially from NiRA perspective. We must fashion out ways of increasing .NG domain name adoption which is our national pride in the digital space”.

Speaking further on why Nigerians and businesses should adopt the .NG domain name, the NiRA president said, “.NG domain name gives your brand special recognition both on and offline.

“Using a .ng domain name can help your business stand out in the Nigerian and global market. It is a great way to differentiate your brand from competitors and establish a unique identity. A .ng domain name is easier to remember, which can make it more likely that customers will return to your website in the future”, he said.

“It instantly communicates to internet users that your business is located in Nigeria. This can be especially helpful if you operate in a niche or industry where location is important to customers”, the NiRA boss added.

He added that Google and other search engines prioritize local content in search results, hence using a .ng domain name can help improve your website’s search engine ranking for local searches.


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Climate Action Africa Opens Applications for CAAF24 Deal Room

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Climate Action Africa (CAA), a leading advocate for climate resilience and sustainable development, has announced the opening of applications for the Deal Room at the 2024 Climate Action Africa Forum (CAAF24). The Deal Room is a groundbreaking platform that aims to connect high-impact climate innovators in Africa with potential investors seeking to accelerate sustainable solutions.

The CAAF Deal Room is a strategic initiative that aims to create opportunities for innovators in the climate-tech domain focusing on emission reduction, energy, agriculture, transportation, circular economy, and building and construction.

The goal of the Deal Room is to select finalists who will have the opportunity to pitch their innovative ideas and solutions at the upcoming 2024 Climate Action Africa Forum, which will be held on June 19th in Lagos, Nigeria.

The Deal Room aims to boost investments in Africa’s green economy by galvanising a community of innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors to create applicable solutions that can mitigate the challenges of climate change on the African continent.

The Deal Room session will facilitate financing for solutions contributing to the growth and sustainability of Africa’s green economy. These deals may encompass prize money, equity plans, debt financing, mergers and acquisitions, and other investment options.

“Through the CAAF24 Deal Room, we aim to bridge the critical gap between promising climate ventures and the essential resources they need to thrive,” says Grace Oluchi Mbah, Co-founder and Executive Director of Climate Action Africa (CAA). “By facilitating connections between passionate entrepreneurs and dedicated investors, we can collectively unlock the immense potential of climate solutions in Africa.”

The eligibility criteria for applying include:

●     The company must be African-owned and operate in any of the 54 African countries.

●     It must be a for-profit company, between 1-5 years post-incorporation, post-MVP (minimum viable product), and post-GTM (go-to-market).

●     The company should leverage digital technology to deliver its business model.

●     Female ownership is an added advantage.

 Those eligible to apply include venture capitalists, impact investors, climate tech startups, Green SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises), philanthropic organisations, and government representatives.

Following the CAAF24 deal-room will be a post-event accelerator in partnership with the Silicon Valley-based Founder Institute and IDEA Africa. This Africa-wide initiative is specifically designed to further accelerate and enhance support for promising Climate Tech startups and founders who participated in the Deal Room.

The official unveiling of this accelerator will take place at the Climate Action Africa Forum 2024 (CAAF24), marking a significant step forward in driving Climate Tech innovations throughout Africa.

Applications for the CAAF24 Deal Room are open from April 22nd until May 17th. Interested applicants can register at https://deal.caaf.africa/register.


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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