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Afrinvest Affirms Nigerian Banks as Resilient Despite Economic Downturn

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The 2022 Afrinvest Banking Sector Report has revealed that despite daunting economic challenges, commercial banks in the country recorded modest improvement in all regulatory indicators.

The report, presented by Mr. Victor Ndukauba, Deputy Group Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa, showed that the banks beat all the prudential guideline limits set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), demonstrating their resilience and strength during the year.

The report, which was launched at a ceremony to unveil Optimus, Afrinvest’s digital investment app, in Lagos, is the 17th edition of the Nigerian Banking Sector Report.

The occasion also marked the announcement of Afrinvest’s new subsidiaries and expansion of its leadership team as well as the unveiling of Afrinvest’s refreshed logo

The report’s assessment of CBN’s financial stability indicators showed that Industry Liquidity (Liquidity Ratio) and Non-Performing Loan ratios both improved by 130 basis points (up) and 75bps(down), respectively, to 42.6 per cent and 4.95 per cent.

Although, the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR: 14.1 per cent) underperformed the June 2021 level by 140bps, all the indicators beat the prudential guideline limits of 30 per cent (LR), five per cent(NPLs), and 13.0 per cent(CAR), respectively, despite myriads of challenges in the business environment.

The report said the improvement is expected to be sustained over the coming years.

It explained that the fiscal challenges presented by weak Federal Government earnings have contributed to the muddling of monetary policy and strong use of Cash Reserve Ratio debits as a subtle strategy, in our view, to compensate for the inflationary effect of ballooned overdraft to the government.

It insists that in increasing its developmental financing role, especially in agriculture financing, the CBN risks crowding out banks and private sector financing, which is more effective in de-risking the sector and incentivising growth without moral hazards.

“Importantly, the weak economic growth has robbed banks of the dividend of large and youthful demographics. Over the last 10 years to 2021, real Gross Domestic Product has grown by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of

In line with the decline in income level, poverty has risen to 40.1 per cent based on national standards of annual real per capita expenditure threshold of N137,430.

“For banks, this reality means that upscaling would be less efficient than in an economy where growth exceeds population expansion. Not surprising, Nigeria’s financial depth is weak as is for countries with high fertility rates and a fragile economic base.,” it said

“Some other measures advised include the tapering of fiscal deficit financing – credit to the government – to check money supply expansion, alignment of rates across windows and the adoption of market reflective forex rate via the crawling peg regime.

“We believe that the outcome for banks in the coming decade would rely on the policy actions taken today to address the issues raised,” it said.

On exchange rate management, the report said CBN’s strategy (differentiated rates across market segments and capital control) failed the litmus test over the reviewed period, as anticipated in the 2021 report.

It said the value of the Naira depreciated further by 5.6 per cent and 23.2 per cent to N436.50/$1.00 and N712.00$1.00 (on 19/09/2022) at the NAFEX window and parallel market, respectively.

“It sated that near-term improvement in the exchange rate is not in sight, given forex supply constraints due to the self-inflicted injuries in Nigeria’s oil & gas sector (the largest source of FX accretion).

On the economy, the report said that in 2021, the Nigerian economy recovered markedly from the pandemic-induced strain of the prior year.

“Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 3.4 per cent (2020: -1.9 per cent), beating our projection by 0.4ppts. The recovery was mainly driven by the expansion of activities in the non-oil sector (up 4.4 per cent), while the oil sector remained in a recession.

“This growth momentum was sustained into 2022 albeit with a wider divergence between the oil and non-oil sectors.,” it said.

The report stated that, given the resilient half-year 2022 performance and expectation of sustained positive performance by key non-oil activity sectors in third and fourth quarters of the year, it reviewed the 2022 baseline growth forecast upward by 40bps to 3.3 per cent.

However, it maintained that growth momentum in the medium term would remain short of the level that can meaningfully lift the average well-being of the citizenry due to persistent domestic and external headwinds.

It said oil price level, domestic inflation rate has remained persistently high, averaging 14.3 per cent in the last six years.


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E-Financial

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released an exposure draft proposing the establishment of a 30-member Mediation and Dispute Resolution Panel (MDRP) aimed at strengthening consumer protection and boosting confidence in Nigeria’s financial system.

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

Pic credit….aequitasjuris.com

According to a circular signed by Paul Oluikpe, acting director of the Development Finance Advisory Department of the CBN, the establishment of the MDRP, is in furtherance of efforts to strengthen the financial ecosystem, ensure compliance with extant legislation, and enhance the efficiency of financial intermediation.

The draft guidelines and modalities for the operation of the MDRP are in line with the Secured Transactions in Movable Assets (STMA) Act, 2017, which established a MDRP as the first recourse for mediation and settlement over any civil dispute which may arise between the creditor and the grantor in the course of implementing the Act.

The act also mandates the Governor of the Bank to issue guidelines that will set out the modalities and regulate the Panel’s functioning, among others. The circular further noted that the “MDRP is intended to provide a specialised, cost-effective platform for resolving disputes arising from creation, perfection and enforcement of security interests in movable assets.

“The key objective of the MDRP guidelines is to establish a clear and standardised procedure for managing STMA-related disputes, while ensuring transparency, fairness and efficiency to bolster confidence in the secured transactions in movable assets system.”

According to the draft guideline, the CBN will “appoint 30 persons from whom panels shall be constituted, with each panel comprising 3 members.

The members shall serve on a rotational basis for an initial term of four years.

“Upon satisfactory performance, determined through an evaluation by the CBN, members may be reappointed for an additional term of four years. The tenure of members shall not exceed two terms of four years each, which need not be consecutive.

“Members shall be professionals with a minimum of 10 years of relevant experience in any of law, banking, finance, mediation, arbitration, alternative dispute resolution, or financial regulation. Members shall be persons of proven integrity, professional competence and sound judgement.”


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NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) said that it has commenced the process of liquidating 89 closed Microfinance Banks (MFBs) and Primary Mortgage Banks (PMBs).

NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

This followed their successful acquisition by new owners under the Purchase and Assumption (P&A) resolution model executed by the Corporation.

The corporation disclosed this in a statement on Wednesday, signed by Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs.

It explained that the affected institutions were part of the 179 MFBs and four PMBs whose licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on May 22 and 23, 2023.

According to the corporation, under the P&A arrangement, 89 new eligible institutions were subsequently licensed by the CBN to assume the assets and liabilities of the defunct banks.

It noted that the new banks had since commenced operations under different names.

“To legally conclude the liquidation process, the NDIC, in its capacity as liquidator, will file applications at various divisions of the Federal High Court for orders of dissolution of the closed banks and its discharge as liquidator,” the statement said.

NDIC added that the move was in line with provisions of its enabling Act and other relevant laws guiding bank resolution in the country.

The corporation said the exercise would ensure proper closure of the defunct institutions while safeguarding financial system stability.

It reiterated its commitment to protecting depositors and sustaining public confidence in the banking sector.

The affected banks were located across several states, including Lagos, Anambra, Oyo, Kaduna, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory.

 


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IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s GDP Outlook, Warns of Rising Risks

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Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2026 and strengthen slightly to 4.3 per cent in 2027, even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is clouding the global outlook.

The projections, contained in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook released at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC, the United States, show a relatively stable trajectory for Nigeria despite rising external risks, particularly from energy market disruptions triggered by the war.

The IMF had earlier projected stronger growth of about 4.4 per cent in early January before the latest global shock, reflecting the impact of domestic reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.

While Nigeria’s growth outlook remains steady, the IMF warned that countries like Nigeria face growing vulnerability from higher global energy prices, inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions.

The war, which has disrupted oil supply routes and pushed up fuel costs, is already feeding into domestic inflation and cost-of-living pressures.

Recent data show petrol and diesel prices have surged sharply since the conflict began, straining households and businesses.

Although higher crude prices may support government revenues, the broader macroeconomic impact remains mixed, with inflation and exchange rate pressures posing downside risks.

The IMF also cut global growth to 3.1 per cent in 2026, with only a modest recovery to 3.2 per cent in 2027 as the Middle East conflict disrupts trade and energy markets.

Emerging markets and developing economies, including Nigeria, are expected to grow at 3.9 per cent this year before recovering to 4.2 per cent in 2027, reflecting the uneven impact of the shock across regions.

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, placing Nigeria slightly below the regional average but still among the stronger performers.

South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, continues to lag with growth forecast at one per cent in 2026, rising modestly to 1.3 per cent in 2027.

Among major economies, the U.S. is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026 before easing to 2.1 per cent in 2027, while China is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent and four per cent respectively.

India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5 per cent through 2027, while the Euro Area continues to struggle with weak growth, particularly in Germany and France.

The IMF warned that many developing economies, particularly energy importers, remain vulnerable to rising costs and external shocks.

The IMF urged central banks to prioritise price stability, warning against easing policy prematurely in response to supply shocks. It stressed the need for clear communication and strong institutional independence.

On fiscal policy, the Fund cautioned against broad-based energy subsidies, describing them as costly and inefficient. It recommended a targeted and temporary support for vulnerable households, funded within existing budgets.

The IMF also warned against the use of trade restrictions to address external imbalances, noting that such measures tend to weaken output without resolving underlying issues. It called instead for coordinated global action to stabilise trade and restore energy supply chains.

 


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