E-Financial
CBN’s 303rd MPC Meeting: A Technocratic Victory, an Economic Setback, and a Missed Opportunity on Nigeria’s Real Crisis
By Blaise Udunze
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting arrived at a time of unprecedented tension within the Nigerian economy. The country has not faced a more difficult convergence of challenges for more than a decade in the area of crushing food inflation, unrelenting insecurity, slowing growth, weak purchasing power, a fragile exchange rate, and rapidly eroding business confidence, as these are the current realities.
303rd MPC Meeting
Yet, against this troubling backdrop, the MPC chose to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27 percent, kept the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at a record-high 45 percent, held the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent, and adjusted the asymmetric corridor, making it more reflective of technocratic cautions than economic realities
With the tense atmosphere, boldness, contextual sensitivity, and human-centric policymaking are required to douse the challenges. Instead, what Nigeria received was another round of technocratic orthodoxy, at a time when orthodoxy has clearly failed.
Why This MPC Meeting Matters More Than Any in Recent Memory
The importance of the 303rd MPC meeting cannot be overstated. It occurred at a time when:
– Nigeria’s food inflation remains structurally high, driven mainly by insecurity, not excess liquidity.
– Banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, kidnapping, and terrorism have made farming a high-risk activity across the North-East, North-West, North-Central, and increasingly the South, which has created an environment where fear, uncertainty, and instability have become the daily reality for millions of Nigerians.
– Growth has slowed, reflecting a tightening credit environment and collapsing consumer demand, while households spend 70-80 percent of income on food, according to industry surveys.
– Private-sector credit is shrinking, while government borrowing is expanding.
– The naira, though stabilising, remains vulnerable.
Given these realities, the MPC was expected to signal a shift, however modest, toward a more growth-supportive stance. Instead, it doubled down on tight policy.
Many analysts interpret this as a sign that the CBN is more committed to defending the naira and preserving the appearance of stability than responding to the lived experiences of citizens and businesses.
The CBN’s Insecurity Blind Spot: Food Prices Cannot Fall When Farmers Are Running for Their Lives
One of the biggest ironies in Nigeria today is the insistence by some policymakers that food prices are “declining” or that inflation is “moderating,” even as insecurity remains the biggest structural threat to price stability.
This contradiction reveals the central tension of Nigeria’s current economic moment; the macro indicators are improving, but the real economy, especially the food system, is collapsing under insecurity.
Recently, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) issued a stark warning that 35 million Nigerians are projected to face severe food insecurity by the 2026 lean season, which is the highest number ever recorded. Why? Because insurgent attacks are intensifying. Farmers are being killed or kidnapped. Entire communities are paying “harvest taxes” to armed groups.
Today, we witness farmers abandoning thousands of hectares of farmland. Irrigation systems, seeds, and inputs are inaccessible in conflict zones. This creates a vicious cycle as:
– insecurity reduces agricultural production,
– Reduced production pushes food prices up,
– Rising food prices fuel inflation,
– inflation erodes purchasing power,
– poverty deepens,
– insecurity worsens.
Yet the MPC communique did not mention this core driver of inflation in any meaningful way.
Instead, it continued to frame inflation as a monetary problem; something interest rates alone can fix. This is not only analytically flawed; it shows a more dangerous misdiagnosis that will prolong Nigeria’s food crisis.
The Hidden Question: Are Nigeria’s Inflation Numbers Truly Reliable?
A quiet but growing debate is emerging within the financial community about Nigeria’s inflation numbers and macroeconomic figures being massaged.
Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory, put it bluntly, “Zero rate cut suggests the CBN MPC may not be totally confident in the NBS recent inflation numbers at 16 percent.”
This suspicion is not unfounded. Considering the recent realities facing the citizens, Nigerians are spending more on food than at any time in the last two generations. Staple prices such as rice, yams, garri, and beans are still high in almost every major market. Transport, rent, fuel, and electricity costs remain on the high side. Businesses report that operating expenses have not declined by any meaningful margin. Yet official inflation fell sharply to 16.05 percent.
It is mathematically difficult for headline inflation to fall significantly when food inflation, which is the most dominant component, continues to rise due to insecurity, logistics disruptions, and energy costs. This mismatch has forced many economists to ask: what exactly is being measured, and is the methodology still credible? For households already on the brink, numbers that suggest “improvement” feel not only inaccurate but insulting.
The Disconnect Between Governance and Lived Experience
This is where Nigeria’s economic narrative collapses, as the statistics may suggest progress, but households feel worse off than ever. This is why growing segments of society describe government optimism as tone-deaf.
A country cannot be “on the right path” when its citizens cannot afford rice, cannot fuel their generators, cannot pay transport fares, and cannot access credit to expand their businesses.
This disconnect exposes what many call the technocratic illusion, which is overly relying on models, spreadsheets, and monetary tenets in a country where insecurity, not excessive demand, is driving inflation. It reflects a divide between governance and reality, data and hunger, stability and survival.
Tight Monetary Policy: A Victory for Banks, a Defeat for the Real Economy
While the CBN insists that its tight stance is essential for price stability, analysts warn that the costs are becoming unbearable. Dr. Muda Yusuf argues that even a small rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points would have signaled a commitment to growth. Instead:
– Lending rates remain between 33 percent and 45 percent, suffocating SMEs.
– Credit to the private sector fell from N75.9 trillion to N72.5 trillion in just one month.
– Government borrowing is rising, crowding out real-sector lending.
– Manufacturers have cut production, citing financing conditions.
– Job creation is slowing, especially in youth-led sectors.
Banks, meanwhile, are reporting stronger margins and higher interest income. The question is no longer whether tight policy fights inflation. The question is whether Nigeria’s economy can survive its side effects.
The Naira: Stability Built on Fragile Foundations
The CBN’s main justification for maintaining the high MPR is to attract foreign portfolio investment (FPI), support the naira, and avoid destabilizing capital outflows. But this stability is fragile. FPIs are temporary “hot money.” They disappear at the slightest global shock.
Nigeria has suffered the consequences of relying on this route in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022. A sustainable naira requires:
– More domestic production
– Higher exports
– Better security
– Improved energy supply
– and a functional agricultural sector.
None of these received priority mention in the MPC deliberations.
The Real Test of Reform Is in People’s Lives, Not in Abuja’s Spreadsheets
Nigeria’s macroeconomic gains are being celebrated abroad. But hunger, joblessness, and despair are expanding at home. This is the irony of the current moment:
– Inflation is easing, yet hunger is rising.
– FX reserves are improving, yet insecurity is deepening.
– Subsidies are gone, yet the fiscal space they were meant to create is invisible.
– Reforms have stabilised numbers, but not people.
The World Bank’s October 2025 report warned that Nigeria’s progress means nothing if human welfare remains in decline. The success of reforms must now be measured not by GDP or FX reserves, but by how many Nigerians can afford to eat, work, and live with dignity.
A Missed Opportunity, Again
The 303rd MPC meeting should have been a turning point, a recognition that Nigeria’s inflation crisis is rooted in insecurity and supply shocks, not excess liquidity. Instead, the committee delivered technical caution, policy defensiveness, and an over-reliance on interest rate orthodoxy.
Nigeria needs a monetary policy that understands where the real crisis lies, in the abandoned farmlands, the unsafe highways, the displaced farming communities, and the markets where food prices rise weekly.
Without confronting this, Nigeria will continue to win macroeconomic battles while losing the war for human survival.
The Path Nigeria Must Chart to End Insecurity, Food Inflation, and Economic Stagnation
Nigeria’s 303rd MPC meeting made one thing clear that the country cannot escape its economic turmoil through monetary tightening alone. Interest rates cannot secure farms, rebuild supply chains, or put food on the table. What Nigeria needs now is a decisive, coordinated strategy that goes beyond the narrow lens of inflation targeting.
– First, security must become the cornerstone of price stability.
Food inflation will not recede until farmers can return to their lands without fear. A National Agro-Security Task Force merging military units, agro-rangers, police, intelligence agencies, and vetted community guards must secure farmlands and food corridors. Without safety in the agricultural belt, every other policy becomes cosmetic.
– Second, the CBN must adopt a dual mandate: price stability and growth.
Nigeria’s rigid monetary stance is suppressing credit, killing jobs, and suffocating production. Lowering the CRR to a realistic 25-30 percent and providing targeted single-digit loans to SMEs and manufacturers is essential for economic revival. Monetary policy must support growth, not stifle it.
– Third, Nigeria must rebuild trust in its economic data.
Doubts about inflation figures erode confidence. Modernizing NBS data-collection methods through digital analytics, satellite tools, and transparent audits is crucial. No country can chart a path out of crisis with unreliable statistics.
– Fourth, structural reforms must address cost-push inflation at its root.
Nigeria’s inflation is driven by high production costs despite poor roads, expensive power, weak logistics, and inefficient transport systems. Repairing agricultural roads, expanding rail freight, investing in cold-chain infrastructure, and boosting industrial power supply will reduce costs and unlock productivity.
– Fifth, the country must build an export-driven economy.
Stable exchange rates come from production, not high interest rates. Tax incentives for exporters, fully functional Special Economic Zones, and improvements in customs efficiency will help Nigeria attract stable capital and grow non-oil exports.
– Sixth, social protection must expand to shield vulnerable households.
Targeted food vouchers, transport subsidies, and school feeding programs are necessary to cushion families from economic shocks. Reform without social protection is a recipe for social unrest.
– Finally, Nigeria needs a whole-of-government Economic War Room.
Security agencies, economic ministries, the CBN, the NBS, and the private sector must collaborate in real time to track inflation drivers, coordinate responses, and prevent policy contradictions. Economic management must become proactive, not reactive.
Stability Must Translate to Human Welfare
The 303rd MPC meeting signaled caution, but what Nigeria needs is direction. It needs clarity, boldness, and policies rooted in the lived realities of millions. Monetary tightening has achieved what it can; the next phase requires confronting insecurity, energizing production, restoring data credibility, and building a growth-driven economy.
Nigeria cannot tighten its way out of this crisis. It must reform, secure, produce, and most importantly, protect its people. If not, the nation will continue to win statistical battles while losing the war for human survival.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has declared that it has no plans to extend the 31 July 2026, deadline for the ongoing insurance industry recapitalisation exercise, asserting that the date is firmly rooted in the new Insurance Act.
Speaking at the investiture of Mr Akinjide Oluwarotimi-Orimolade as the 53rd president of the Chartered Insurance Institute of Nigeria (CIIN) in Lagos, Olusegun Omosehin, commissioner for Insurance, emphasised that the exercise remained central to building a resilient market.
With less than two weeks left before the window closes, the regulator commended operators making steady progress but stressed that the timeline must be treated with absolute urgency.
Omosehin said, “A stronger capital base must translate into stronger service delivery, prompt claims settlement, improved consumer protection, and a market that Nigerians can trust.
“The industry’s future will be determined by the quality of leadership, depth of competence, and discipline in serving the public interest.”
The ongoing exercise follows the historic signing of the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act by President Bola Tinubu, which effectively repealed the outdated 2003 Insurance Act. Under the new framework, the sector is transitioning from a static baseline model to a dynamic risk-based capital structure. This regulatory shift aims to fortify operators against systemic economic shocks and better position the industry to contribute significantly to the Federal Government’s target of a $1tn economy.
Consequently, the exercise requires a massive capital lift across the board, pushing life underwriters from N2bn to N10bn, non-life operators from N3bn to N15bn, and reinsurers from N10bn to N35bn.
The push comes amid strong legislative alignment, with the National Assembly pledging its full backing to ensure these reforms translate into deeper market penetration.
Also speaking at the event, Ahmadu Jaha, chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Insurance and Actuarial Matters, reaffirmed the parliament’s dedication to providing the necessary legal frameworks to drive sector growth.
Jaha said, “As Chairman of the House Committee on Insurance and Actuarial Matters, I wish to reaffirm the unwavering commitment of the House of Representatives to supporting legislative initiatives that will strengthen the insurance industry, improve regulatory effectiveness, enhance consumer protection and promote wider insurance penetration across Nigeria.
“The National Assembly recognises the critical role of the insurance industry in mobilising long-term capital, financing infrastructure development, protecting businesses and households against unforeseen risks, promoting financial stability and driving sustainable economic growth.”
Responding to the charge, the newly inaugurated Orimolade, president, CIIN, stated that his administration would aggressively protect the public interest by advancing the core mandates of the institute.
Orimolade promised “to build on the programmes of my predecessors while evolving new ideas that can further increase insurance education, awareness and acceptance across the country.”
Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has resumed implementation of the Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations, 2025 (DEON Regulations).
This follows the judgment delivered yesterday by Justice A.L. Allagoa of the Federal High Court, Lagos, in Suit No. FHC/L/CS/760/2026 instituted by the Wireless Application Service Providers Association of Nigeria Ltd/Gte (WASPAN).
In the ruling, the Court dismissed the Plaintiff’s Originating Summons in its entirety, declined all the reliefs sought, and upheld the validity of the DEON Regulations, holding that they were made pursuant to the FCCPC’s statutory and constitutional powers and are therefore intra vires the Commission.
The Court also upheld the validity of the specific provisions of the Regulations challenged in the suit and consequently discharged the interim ex parte order that had restrained implementation and enforcement of the Regulations.
Accordingly, the legal impediment that had necessitated the Commission’s temporary suspension of implementation and enforcement of the DEON Regulations has been removed, and the Regulations are once again fully operational and enforceable.
WASPAN had challenged the Commission’s authority to issue and implement the DEON Regulations. Upon being served with the Court’s interim order in April 2026, the FCCPC immediately suspended implementation and enforcement of the Regulations in full compliance with the Court’s directive, consistent with its commitment to the rule of law and respect for judicial authority.
Meanwhile, the FCCPC has welcomed the judgement.
Reacting, Ondaje ljagwu, director of Corporate Affairs, FCCPC, said: “The Commission has always maintained that the rule of law is fundamental to effective regulation and good governance. When the Court issued its interim order, we immediately suspended implementation of the Regulations in full compliance with the Court’s directive. Now that the Court has affirmed the validity of the DEON Regulations and delivered judgment in favour of the Commission, we will continue to discharge our statutory responsibilities faithfully, professionally and in accordance with the law.
“The DEON Regulations are designed to promote responsible lending, improve regulatory accountability, curb unfair and exploitative practices, and strengthen consumer protection in Nigeria’s digital lending market. Our objective has always been to ensure that innovation and financial inclusion flourish within a transparent, fair and accountable regulatory framework that inspires confidence among consumers, investors and responsible operators alike.
Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has urged youths to shun investment scams and embrace the habit of saving.
NDIC said that for a nation to be prosperous, its citizens must learn to build legitimate wealth through savings and then advance to investment.
Mr Adegbenga Fagbuyi, assistant director, Communication and Corporate Affairs, NDIC, made the remarks while addressing students of Lagelu Grammar School, Ibadan, during the 2026 Financial Literacy Day.
Delivering his speech on “Smart Money,” Fagbuyi highlighted the importance of having basic knowledge of the financial system, making sound financial decisions, understanding the benefits of saving in banks, setting financial goals, maintaining financial discipline, and avoiding Ponzi schemes that promise high returns.
Fagbuyi said youths are among the major targets of the government’s financial inclusion drive, adding that the Financial Literacy Day formed part of activities marking Global Money Week, adopted by the Bankers’ Committee in Nigeria as a platform for mentoring youths on savings and investment.
He said, “The government wants everybody to be participants in the financial sector. But how can you be a participant if you don’t know how to save? How can you be a participant if you cannot convert your savings into an investment? So, most importantly, youths are one of the major targets of the financial inclusion drive of the government.”
Fagbuyi described financial inclusion as bringing everybody into the financial safety net by encouraging participation in banking, insurance, pensions, and the capital market.
He stressed that the government does not want youths to become adults who lack knowledge of safe banking practices, insurance, and the capital market.
“Government does not want them to grow old, to become adults who do not know about savings, safe banking habits, insurance, and the capital market. That is why we go to schools to sensitise students to all these basic financial matters, particularly savings, so that our students can begin to learn to save, learn credible investment habits through which they can be making legitimate income.
“We also educate them about the deposit insurance system administered by NDIC. When you save in banks, the banks are supervised and regulated. And if eventually they fail, you will not lose your money. That is what NDIC does,” Fagbuyi said.
He revealed that the sensitisation programme, which started about 10 years ago and is organised by the Bankers’ Committee, comprising the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, and all the deposit money banks in Nigeria, has been held across states nationwide.
He said, “Minimum, every year, we go to 10 states. And we normally sensitise 200 students in each school. So this year, that means we are targeting 2,000 students.”
Fagbuyi, however, said the objective of the programme is not to cover all schools across the country but to set a standard for state governments and schools to replicate.
“But I must emphasise that the objective is not to cover all schools. It is to set a standard for state governments and for schools to replicate. You agree with me that we cannot be everywhere.
“But as a partner, as a key stakeholder in the financial inclusion drive of the federal government, we go to states to showcase what the government’s intention, so that states and schools can replicate. So it is on this note that we always urge states’ Ministries of Education, Science and Technology to replicate and expand these programmes across their respective states.”
In his address, Olusegun Olayiwola, Oyo State Commissioner for Education, Science and Technology, represented by Alhaji Lukuman Kareem, permanent secretary, Education Inspectorate, Ibadan North, commended the NDIC for selecting a school in Ibadan for the financial literacy sensitisation programme.
He noted that such initiatives must go beyond the classroom to shape young minds, adding that children cannot achieve expected outcomes unless they are properly guided.
“That’s why we significantly appreciate the efforts of the Bankers’ Committee, NDIC, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and all other members for this,” he said.
The commissioner charged the students to take the lessons seriously, noting that opportunities lost may not be easily regained. He also advised the NDIC to expand the programme to include students from neighbouring schools in future editions to maximise its impact without additional transportation costs.
Additionally, Olayiwola urged teachers to cascade the training to other students, who should in turn enlighten their siblings at home.
YEDC Warns Customers, Says 20 Percent Electricity Bonus is Scam
FG to Support 12 Tech Startups with N482m under iDICE
NBC, INEC, Plan Joint Broadcast Monitoring Framework ahead of 2027 Elections
No Going Back on July 31 Deadline for Insurance Firms’ Recapitalisation – NAICOM
Court Affirms FCCPC’s Power to Regulate Digital Lending
NRC, Ponzi Scheme Collapses Resulting Loss of Billions of Naira
NASENI Moves to Digitize CCB’s 5m Assets Declaration and Operations
Lebara Nigeria Launches Lebara Play, Africa’s First Telecom-Owned Micro-Drama Platform
CANAL+ Partners Samsung to Pre-Load DStv Stream on New Samsung TVs In Nigeria, Other African Countries
Tokenization, Blockchain Technology will Transform Financial Institutions – IMF
News1 day agoNIMASA Unveils Accelerator Scheme to Drive Innovation, Sustainable Growth
E-Financial1 day agoAccess Holdings Sells 7.44% Stake in Ghana Unit
E-Financial1 day agoNRS Issues July 31 Deadline for e-Invoicing Compliance
E-Business1 day agoSERAP to Sue NASS over Bill Empowering NDPC to Regulate Social Media
E-Financial1 day agoNDIC Urges Youths to Shun Ponzi Schemes, Embrace Savings
News1 day agoICPC Secures Final Forfeiture of N941m Linked to IPPIS Fraud
News1 day agoAdebutu, PDP Chieftain Accuses Nigerian Governors of Embezzling LG Allocations
News1 day agoeBusinessLife Advocates Greater Support for Girls in ICT as Students Showcase AI Innovations