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CBN’s Tight Policies Expected to Bring Inflation Down to 22.1% – World Bank

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World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will average 22.1 per cent in 2025, attributing the anticipated decline to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary stance aimed at restoring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations.

The projection was contained in a statement published Monday on the World Bank’s website, following the formal launch of the latest edition of the Nigeria Development Update report in Abuja.

The biannual report, titled “Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth,” assesses recent economic trends and policy responses, and outlines priorities for sustaining reforms and promoting inclusive growth.

According to the report, while macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly, particularly GDP growth, revenue mobilisation, and fiscal consolidation, headline inflation remains a pressing concern.

“The report further adds that inflation has remained high and sticky but is expected to fall to an annual average of 22.1 per cent in 2025, as a sustained tight stance firmly establishes monetary policy credibility and dampens inflationary expectations,” the statement read.

The World Bank identified the major drivers of elevated inflation in recent years to include the removal of petrol subsidies, exchange rate unification, rising logistics and energy costs, and recurring food supply disruptions.

However, it noted that the Central Bank’s ongoing monetary tightening efforts are starting to show positive signs, with inflationary pressures expected to ease going into 2025.

The report also indicated that Nigeria’s macroeconomic position is steadily improving. The economy grew by 4.6 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing full-year growth to 3.4 per cent, the strongest outturn since 2014, excluding the post-COVID rebound.

Fiscal performance also improved sharply, with the consolidated fiscal deficit narrowing from 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 3.0 per cent in 2024. Total government revenues rose from N16.8tn in 2023 to an estimated N31.9tn in 2024, equivalent to 11.5 per cent of GDP.

With the improved fiscal outlook, the World Bank said Nigeria now had a window of opportunity to restructure public spending and make impactful investments in social infrastructure.

“Nigeria has made impressive strides to restore macroeconomic stability. With the improvement in the fiscal situation, Nigeria now has a historic opportunity to improve the quantity and quality of development spending; investing more in human capital, social protection, and infrastructure,” the acting World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Taimur Samad, said.

He added that the allocation of public resources should move away from past unsustainable patterns and be redirected towards addressing critical development gaps. The World Bank further stressed that achieving long-term inclusive growth would require accelerating productivity in sectors that create jobs at scale.

It observed that while finance and ICT were among the economy’s top performers, they were not labour-intensive and excluded many Nigerians due to limited access and skills.

“International experience suggests that the public sector cannot sustainably generate growth and jobs by itself. Nigeria is no exception,” World Bank Lead Economist for Nigeria, Alex Sienaert, said.

“A useful strategy is to position the public sector to play a dual role as a provider of essential public services… and as an enabler for the private sector to invest, innovate, and grow the economy,” he added.

The Nigeria Development Update is one of the World Bank’s flagship economic publications on Nigeria and provides regular analysis of trends, reforms, and risks in Africa’s largest economy.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 24.23 per cent in March 2025, up from 23.18 per cent recorded in February, according to the most recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.


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Kaspersky Warns of “Grey” Scam Websites Exploiting User Trust

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Recent research by Kaspersky has shown that the so-called “grey” websites repeatedly target all world regions, and this may be driving both financial loss and large-scale data harvesting.

Grey websites are deceptive online platforms that fall outside traditional phishing definitions but still manipulate users into voluntarily handing over money and personal data. Kaspersky’s new report provides detailed insights into the threats posed by the grey websites on global and regional levels.

Unlike classic phishing attacks, which aim to steal credentials outright, grey websites rely on persuasion, misleading interfaces, and hidden terms to exploit users. They often impersonate legitimate services such as e-commerce platforms, financial tools, AI services, or subscription-based content, making them significantly harder to detect.

Kaspersky analysis shows that the majority of suspicious resources globally fall into several recurring categories:

  • Fake browser extensions and “security tools” that actually harvest browsing data and track user activity.
  • Fraudulent financial platforms including crypto exchanges, trading tools, and investment schemes promising unrealistic returns.
  • Intermediary services (e.g., legal or real estate), charging for low-value or nonexistent services while harvesting sensitive personal data.
  • Subscription traps offering low-cost trials that convert into costly recurring payments hidden in fine print.
  • Fake online shops that either deliver counterfeit goods or nothing at all.

Example of a grey website.

A notable trend is the emergence of tools disguised as AI services or image-processing platforms, reflecting attackers’ ability to adapt to current digital trends and target younger audiences.

There are proven security solutions that help users to detect grey websites across different types of devices – those running on Windows, Linux, Android and iOS. The detection model is based on many factors, including domain name and age, IP reputation, stability of the infrastructure used, DNS configurations, HTTP security headers, digital identity and popularity of the web resource and other criteria.

Regional specifics

Regional variations in grey websites demonstrate how threat actors localise scams based on user behaviour and trending technologies.

In Europe, the threat landscape is dominated by links to suspicious browser extensions and fake “privacy-enhancing” tools.

These resources often present themselves as security solutions, promising safer browsing or anonymous search capabilities. In reality, they function as browser hijackers – intercepting traffic, collecting cookies, tracking user behaviour, and injecting advertisements.

The popularity of these threats reflects a high level of user concern around privacy and security, which attackers actively exploit. Additionally, these regions show a steady presence of phishing intermediaries and crypto-related scams, indicating a blend of technical and financially motivated attacks.

Across African markets, financial scams are the most prominent category of suspicious resources. Fraudulent trading platforms, fake brokers, and investment schemes frequently mimic legitimate financial services, often accompanied by fabricated licenses or endorsements.

These platforms typically prevent users from withdrawing funds, instead introducing additional “fees” or taxes to prolong the scam. The concentration of these threats highlights how attackers leverage growing interest in online investing while exploiting gaps in regulatory enforcement and financial literacy.

In the Middle East and North Africa region, suspicious resources frequently mimic communication (Internet telephony) tools, financial platforms, or betting services. Additionally, Ponzi-style investment schemes and crypto scams are widespread, often presented through polished interfaces that mimic legitimate platforms.

Web browser-based threats also play a significant role, with malicious extensions targeting user data and browsing activity. The regional threat profile reflects a convergence of financial fraud and technical compromise, where users risk both data exposure and monetary loss.

“Suspicious websites don’t look harmful at first glance. But they exploit trust, urgency, and familiarity, and a single click on what looks like a harmless AI image tool, a “secure” browser extension, or a heavily discounted online shop could be all it takes to lose money or expose sensitive data.

Instead of direct credential theft, attackers turn to behavioural manipulation – whether that’s subscribing, investing, or installing software,” comments Anna Larkina, Web Content and Privacy Analysis Expert at Kaspersky.

 


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MSMEs Paucity of Funds Receives Boost as Senate Backs Bill Seeking to Unlock Cash for them

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Businesses across Nigeria, particularly micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), may soon be able to convert unpaid invoices and credit sales into immediate cash without relying on conventional bank loans following the passage of the Factoring, Assignments and Receivables Financing Bill for second reading in the Senate.

The bill, which seeks to establish a legal framework for factoring and receivables financing, is expected to improve access to credit, boost liquidity for businesses and enhance domestic and international trade.

It also seeks to provide legal certainty for the assignment of receivables through factoring, promote transparency, modernise assignment laws and facilitate greater access to credit for businesses across the country.

Leading debate on the bill which was sent from the House of Representatives for concurrence, Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele said on Tuesday that the proposed legislation would create an enabling environment for debt factoring to thrive in Nigeria while defining the rights and obligations of creditors, factors and debtors involved in such transactions.

He explained that the bill provides for factoring contracts between sellers and factors and clarifies the legal relationship among parties in receivables financing arrangements.

According to Bamidele, the legislation has already passed all legislative stages in the House of Representatives and has complied with the Senate’s procedural requirements under Order 78(3) of the Senate Standing Orders.

He told lawmakers that the Senate Ad Hoc Committee on Compliance, chaired by Abdul Ningi, had scrutinised and cleared the bill for concurrence.

“The committee confirmed that all procedural requirements for consideration and concurrence by the Senate have been fully met,” he said.

Seconding the bill, Adetokunbo Abiru said the legislation would provide businesses with an alternative source of financing by enabling them to turn credit sales into cash and improve their working capital.

Abiru noted that factoring has become increasingly popular across Africa over the last decade, largely through initiatives supported by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).

He disclosed that the African factoring market is currently valued at over $50 billion, but Nigeria’s participation remains below one per cent.

According to him, countries such as Egypt and Morocco have benefited significantly from the financing model, adding that Nigeria risks missing out on the growing market without a clear regulatory framework.

“I think that passing this major legislation will help support our micro, small and medium enterprises in terms of converting most of their credit sales into cash without going through the normal borrowing arrangement,” Abiru said.

In his remarks, Ningi also assured lawmakers that the compliance committee had reviewed the bill and found no legal impediments to its passage.

Following a voice vote, the Senate approved the bill for second reading and subsequently referred it to the Committee of the Whole for clause-by-clause consideration.

 


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IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

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The IMF on Tuesday warned of risks surrounding Nigeria’s plan to borrow up to $5 billion through a derivatives agreement with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank, saying such transactions are often opaque and complex.

IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

Recall that the Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement, joining other Africa borrowers like Senegal and Angola who have tapped similar arrangements over the past year.

“Our view is that the transaction in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments ​across countries,” Christian Ebeke, IMF resident representative in Nigeria, told reporters.

Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

Nigeria intends to use proceeds from the total return swap, or TRS, to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

In its latest Article IV review, the Fund praised Nigeria’s sweeping reforms, saying they had strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, but warned that the benefits had ‌yet to reach millions of citizens and could be undermined by global shocks, including the Middle East conflict.

The reforms since 2023 under President Bola Tinubu – including fuel subsidy removal, tighter monetary policy and exchange rate liberalisation – had rebuilt buffers and improved macroeconomic management, the IMF said.

However, it cautioned that the reforms were also contributing to social strain, with poverty levels at 63% and millions facing food insecurity, underscoring a widening gap between macro gains and household realities.

The IMF said improved policy credibility and forex reforms had helped Nigeria regain access to international capital markets and attract portfolio inflows, while reducing risk premiums. The central bank says gross reserves are at $50 billion, the highest in 17 years.

But reliance on volatile foreign portfolio investment poses rollover risks, the IMF said, urging a shift towards more stable, long-term capital such as foreign direct investment.


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