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Complicated Dynamics of Nigeria’s 2.6 GHz Auction

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Nigeria’s telecoms regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) is in the process of auctioning spectrum in the 2.6GHz band. 2.6GHz is a so-called 4G band, allowing the winning bidder to roll-out 4G next generation mobile networks across the country.

There is much riding on this auction; we find the probability for disappointment in the returns from this auction to be fairly high – but this is not merely a matter of value.

The 2.6 GHz auction is the first major, public test of investor sentiment in the country’s telecoms sector over the past few months.

This is a difficult period for the entire Nigerian economy, but it is particularly complicated for the telecoms sector.

Fuel shortages have made operating conditions tougher; economic growth has slowed markedly; the IMF projects real GDP growth of 2.3% this year, down from 2.8% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2014.

Foreign exchange restrictions have hit especially hard, making it difficult to import foreign telecoms equipment and raise foreign capital as financial markets adopt a wait-and-see approach towards Nigeria and anticipate naira devaluation.

Add to that concerns of regulatory heavy-handedness following the record $2.5bn fine levied on MTN Nigeria for failure to disconnect SIM cards and stakeholders have been cautious at best.

The 2.6GHz auction is expected to alleviate some of this angst, and offer the opportunity to participate in a Nigerian mobile connectivity and digital services market that remains unquestionably promising.

We currently estimate it at around $2bn a year, with the potential of at least doubling in size within the next five years. The NCC hopes to generate at least $224m through the sale of 14 lots of 10MHz, at a reserve price of $16m per lot.

And yet, we find the probability for disappointment in the returns from this auction to be fairly high. It’s not a matter of value.

Our assessment of 4G spectrum prices in Africa suggests that on a benchmark basis, the reserve price set by the NCC, if anything, slightly undervalues this spectrum asset.

Indeed, we estimate the median value of Nigeria’s 2.6GHz band, if sold under optimal conditions, at around $20m for a 2x5MHz lot, around 25% above the suggested reserve price.

We see the problem elsewhere, in the very nature of the 2.6GHz band and the structural setup of the auction. We highlight a few points:
• The minimum investment threshold is too high – the NCC is asking for a minimum investment of $64m for 40 MHz. Few operators can come up with and/or justify this amount for this type of investment at this time, and for this particular asset. By comparison, Morocco sold 20 MHz and Ghana 30 MHz in their respective 4G processes; Cote-d’Ivoire sold 40 MHz, but as part of a broader mix of frequencies including 2G and 3G, which raised overall value.

• Further, we believe the sale of the 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis drags down the intrinsic value of this offering. The 2.6GHz band is best used as high-density, urban area complement to lower-band spectrum. Sold alone, it loses some of its attractiveness. In the majority of African 4G transactions in which 2.6GHz was offered, it was typically auctioned as part of a mix of 4G frequencies including the lower-band 700MHz or 800MHz. Few other markets -outside of Ghana’s narrow fixed wireless access (FWA) process of 2011- have sold 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis. By selling 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis, Nigeria is in effect selling 4G spectrum at FWA conditions.

• An operator purchasing the 2.6GHz would have no first-mover advantage in Nigeria. In nearly all other cases of 4G licensing in Africa, the players acquiring the spectrum are the first to roll out the services at scale. By contrast, Nigeria already has 5 LTE players (using 800MHz or 2300 MHz), at least 4 of which are specifically targeting the high-density urban areas that the new owner of the 2.6GHz band would presumably target. And nearly all these other players acquired their licences at a value point 3 times lower than the requested reserve price.

This all makes for interesting dynamics around the auction. The one company that could potentially afford the band, MTN Nigeria, doesn’t really have to have it.

MTN Nigeria acquired Visafone primarily for its sought-after 800MHz spectrum and has announced it will launch LTE in July 2016. Acquiring the 2.6GHz would still be useful, but arguably not enough to overbid.

Other GSM operators in need of 4G spectrum will have to assess whether this is the best use of capital, an equation complicated by the lack of visibility on the availability of the preferred 700MHz band. An operator without the lower band option would be (and indeed, should be) hesitant to invest in the 2.6GHz even at the suggested reserve price, only to be limited to high-density areas where competition is the fiercest.

In this case, the driving rationale for an investment would be not to be left behind – but the 2.6GHz is really only a small step while waiting for the real (and more expensive) prize, the 700 MHz or 800 MHz band.

The question is therefore how aggressive to be on 2.6GHz when this is not the most critical piece to have.

And indeed, an argument can be made that an aggressive bid for Smile Nigeria or Intercellular (who hold the last remaining 800MHz chunks) would be more sensible than a strong play for 2.6 GHz spectrum – though one does not exclude the other.

For the Nigerian government, the real proceeds are not in the 2.6GHz auction in our view. They are in finding a way to bring the 700 MHz or whatever might be left of the 800 MHz to market as soon as possible.


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FCCPC Denies Banning Airtime, Data Borrowing Services in Nigeria

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Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has dismissed claims of a ban on airtime and data borrowing services across Nigeria’s telecom sector.

FCCPC Denies Banning Airtime, Data Borrowing Services in Nigeria

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The clarification comes amid the suspension of MTN Nigeria’s “Xtratime” service, which the operator linked to the Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional (DEON) consumer lending regulations introduced in July 2025.

FCCPC Executive Vice Chairman, Dr. Okechukwu D. Amaechi, stated that disruptions stem from operators’ failure to meet the January 5, 2026 compliance deadline, not any prohibitive directive.

The DEON framework mandates registration, transparent fee disclosures, ethical recovery practices, data safeguards, and robust complaint mechanisms to curb consumer harm from hidden charges and aggressive tactics.

“No ban exists on airtime borrowing or data advances; lawful value-added services remain accessible post-compliance,” FCCPC affirmed in its statement.

Authorities intervened following widespread complaints over unexplained deductions and poor transparency, aiming to restore market confidence.

MTN’s pause reflects individual business choices by non-compliant providers, with the commission urging regularization for service resumption.

The regulations promote accountability for third-party partners and regulatory oversight, fostering a fairer digital lending ecosystem without halting core telecom offerings.


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Nigeria Moves to Curb Fraud as NCC, CBN Seal Consumer Protection Pact

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Dr Aminu Maida, Executive Vice Chairman/CEO, Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC; and Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria, during the signing Memorandum of Understanding between NCC and CBN, 20th of April 2026, at the CBN"s Headquarters Abuja.
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Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that both organisations said would safeguard consumers against fraud while opening opportunities for them to leverage the potentials of the telecommunications and financial sectors.

Nigeria Moves to Curb Fraud as NCC, CBN Seal Consumer Protection Pact

Dr Aminu Maida, Executive Vice Chairman/CEO, Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC; and Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria, during the signing Memorandum of Understanding between NCC and CBN, 20th of April 2026, at the CBN”s Headquarters Abuja.

The MoU was signed as NCC and CBN inaugurated a Joint Committee on Payment Systems and Consumer Protection and a Joint Committee on Telecoms Identity Risk Management System (TIRMS) Portal.

The Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NCC, Dr Aminu Maida said the MoU provides a structured framework for cooperation in critical areas including payment system integrity, fraud mitigation, digital inclusion, and the protection of consumers, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, which he noted will translate into practical outcomes that strengthen trust, deepen inclusion, and support a secure and resilient digital economy.

Dr Maida described the signing of the MoU as an important milestone in “the regulatory stewardship” of Nigeria’s digital economy, which reflects a shared commitment to collaboration in strengthening financial system stability, advancing digital inclusion, and protecting consumers in an increasingly interconnected ecosystem.

He said “The Commission places significant importance on collaboration. Indeed, many of the critical milestones we have achieved in addressing some of our industry’s challenges—and even in leapfrogging our sector—have been made possible through strategic partnerships and sustained collaboration. Our collaboration with the Central Bank is not new.

“Over the years, our two institutions have demonstrated the value of close regulatory coordination. A notable and recent example is our collective effort in resolving the long-standing USSD debt impasse—an intervention that restored confidence, preserved service continuity, and safeguarded the interests of consumers, telecom operators, and financial institutions alike. That experience reaffirmed a simple truth: that complex, cross-sector challenges are best addressed through structured collaboration.

“This MoU provides a clear framework for cooperation in critical areas such as payment system integrity, consumer protection, fraud mitigation, and the responsible use of digital infrastructure.

“In particular, it supports initiatives that promote secure digital payments, enhance trust in mobile-enabled financial services, and extend safe access to underserved populations and MSMEs.
‘For the NCC, this MoU speaks directly to one of the critical pillars of our strategic focus: leveraging cross-sectoral innovation to deliver a safe, resilient, inclusive and trusted digital ecosystem.

“As mobile numbers increasingly underpin identity, authentication, and financial access, collaboration with the CBN is essential to ensuring that innovation is matched with strong governance, system stability, and consumer safeguards,” Dr. Maida declared.

The EVC explained that the collaboration is designed “For the prevention of electronic fraud, which has become increasingly pervasive, with significant implications for the integrity of our digital economy. Through the Telecom Identity Risk Management System (TIRMS) Portal—which aggregates data on churned (recycled) phone numbers, as well as numbers flagged within your sector—the Financial Services Industry will now have enhanced visibility into the status of phone numbers, one of the most widely utilized resources in your sector, although regulated by the NCC.

“This means that the Financial Institutions will be able to determine when a line is active, when it has been swapped, when it has been disconnected due to inactivity and reassigned to a new subscriber, and when it has been flagged for suspicious or fraudulent activity.

“This ensures that our financial services industry is better equipped with timely and relevant information to effectively combat e-fraud, particularly those perpetuated using phone numbers, in the country.

“The second area I want to highlight is an overarching one that both our institutions have consistently championed: it is the protection of Nigerian consumers. With this handshake, consumers who experience issues such as airtime recharges that do not deliver value can be assured of prompt resolution within the shortest possible time.

“The establishment of a platform for sustained engagement, coordinated policy responses, and joint action as new risks and opportunities emerge across the digital and financial landscape by this MoU, positions our two institutions to remain proactive, aligned, and effective in fulfilling our respective mandates,” the EVC stated.

CBN Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso described the MoU as one that will strengthen coordination on approvals, technical standards, and innovation trials, including sandbox testing that supports market-led solutions while safeguarding stability.

He said, “Going forward, the Central Bank of Nigeria remains fully committed to working with the Nigerian Communications Commission to deliver a safer, more resilient, and more inclusive digital financial system—one that supports national productivity, protects consumers, and strengthens trust in Nigeria’s digital economy.”

Mr Cardoso subsequently inaugurated the Joint Committee on Payment Systems and Consumer Protection and the Joint Committee on Telecoms Identity Risk Management System (TIRMS) Portal, which he said would put the protection of consumers of both sectors from fraud at the forefront.


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Why Nigeria Must Embrace .ng Now – NiRA Reveals Five Critical Steps

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Nigeria Internet Registration Association (NiRA) has outlined five strategic pathways to accelerate the adoption of the .ng domain and position it as a critical driver of Nigeria’s digital economy.

Why Nigeria Must Embrace .ng Now - NiRA Reveals Five Critical Steps

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Oluwaseyi Onasanya, Chief Operating Officer of NiRA, presented the framework at a Media Advocacy and Capacity Building Workshop held on April 16.

Onasanya described the .ng domain as a key component of Nigeria’s digital sovereignty, noting that the country has about 65 per cent internet penetration and over 35.6 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) contributing nearly 48 per cent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

She said the first pathway involves mandating the use of .ng domains across all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), as well as subnational entities, government vendors and tax remitters.

According to her, this would ensure that all official digital communications with government institutions are conducted through .ng platforms, while also linking domain usage to Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) registration and procurement processes.

The second strategy focuses on a nationwide awareness campaign tagged “Own Your .ng, Own Your Future,” aimed at promoting the domain as a symbol of national identity, trust and economic value.

Onasanya said the third pathway calls for leadership from the private sector, urging banks, telecommunications companies, startups and SMEs to adopt .ng domains and integrate them into onboarding processes.

She added that the fourth strategy seeks to position .ng as a secure and regulated alternative to foreign domains, enhancing consumer confidence, improving local search visibility and strengthening jurisdictional control.

The fifth pathway centres on expanding the digital ecosystem by strengthening registrar networks, simplifying user experience and integrating .ng domains into internet service providers, digital platforms and national performance metrics.

Onasanya warned that Nigeria’s domain adoption rate remains low compared to global peers, noting that the country has approximately one domain per 855 citizens, far behind countries like Germany, the United Kingdom and China.

She cautioned that low adoption could lead to capital flight, as businesses continue to rely on foreign domain platforms in an increasingly digital global economy.

She also called on the media to drive awareness, shape public perception and promote adoption by highlighting the economic value of .ng domains across sectors.

“Without media, .ng stays technical. With media, it becomes economic,” he said.

NiRA said that over 240,000 .ng domains have been registered so far, with projections indicating continued growth as Nigeria targets a $1 trillion economy by 2030.


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