Telecom
Complicated Dynamics of Nigeria’s 2.6 GHz Auction
Nigeria’s telecoms regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) is in the process of auctioning spectrum in the 2.6GHz band. 2.6GHz is a so-called 4G band, allowing the winning bidder to roll-out 4G next generation mobile networks across the country.
There is much riding on this auction; we find the probability for disappointment in the returns from this auction to be fairly high – but this is not merely a matter of value.
The 2.6 GHz auction is the first major, public test of investor sentiment in the country’s telecoms sector over the past few months.
This is a difficult period for the entire Nigerian economy, but it is particularly complicated for the telecoms sector.
Fuel shortages have made operating conditions tougher; economic growth has slowed markedly; the IMF projects real GDP growth of 2.3% this year, down from 2.8% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2014.
Foreign exchange restrictions have hit especially hard, making it difficult to import foreign telecoms equipment and raise foreign capital as financial markets adopt a wait-and-see approach towards Nigeria and anticipate naira devaluation.
Add to that concerns of regulatory heavy-handedness following the record $2.5bn fine levied on MTN Nigeria for failure to disconnect SIM cards and stakeholders have been cautious at best.
The 2.6GHz auction is expected to alleviate some of this angst, and offer the opportunity to participate in a Nigerian mobile connectivity and digital services market that remains unquestionably promising.
We currently estimate it at around $2bn a year, with the potential of at least doubling in size within the next five years. The NCC hopes to generate at least $224m through the sale of 14 lots of 10MHz, at a reserve price of $16m per lot.
And yet, we find the probability for disappointment in the returns from this auction to be fairly high. It’s not a matter of value.
Our assessment of 4G spectrum prices in Africa suggests that on a benchmark basis, the reserve price set by the NCC, if anything, slightly undervalues this spectrum asset.
Indeed, we estimate the median value of Nigeria’s 2.6GHz band, if sold under optimal conditions, at around $20m for a 2x5MHz lot, around 25% above the suggested reserve price.
We see the problem elsewhere, in the very nature of the 2.6GHz band and the structural setup of the auction. We highlight a few points:
• The minimum investment threshold is too high – the NCC is asking for a minimum investment of $64m for 40 MHz. Few operators can come up with and/or justify this amount for this type of investment at this time, and for this particular asset. By comparison, Morocco sold 20 MHz and Ghana 30 MHz in their respective 4G processes; Cote-d’Ivoire sold 40 MHz, but as part of a broader mix of frequencies including 2G and 3G, which raised overall value.
• Further, we believe the sale of the 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis drags down the intrinsic value of this offering. The 2.6GHz band is best used as high-density, urban area complement to lower-band spectrum. Sold alone, it loses some of its attractiveness. In the majority of African 4G transactions in which 2.6GHz was offered, it was typically auctioned as part of a mix of 4G frequencies including the lower-band 700MHz or 800MHz. Few other markets -outside of Ghana’s narrow fixed wireless access (FWA) process of 2011- have sold 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis. By selling 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis, Nigeria is in effect selling 4G spectrum at FWA conditions.
• An operator purchasing the 2.6GHz would have no first-mover advantage in Nigeria. In nearly all other cases of 4G licensing in Africa, the players acquiring the spectrum are the first to roll out the services at scale. By contrast, Nigeria already has 5 LTE players (using 800MHz or 2300 MHz), at least 4 of which are specifically targeting the high-density urban areas that the new owner of the 2.6GHz band would presumably target. And nearly all these other players acquired their licences at a value point 3 times lower than the requested reserve price.
This all makes for interesting dynamics around the auction. The one company that could potentially afford the band, MTN Nigeria, doesn’t really have to have it.
MTN Nigeria acquired Visafone primarily for its sought-after 800MHz spectrum and has announced it will launch LTE in July 2016. Acquiring the 2.6GHz would still be useful, but arguably not enough to overbid.
Other GSM operators in need of 4G spectrum will have to assess whether this is the best use of capital, an equation complicated by the lack of visibility on the availability of the preferred 700MHz band. An operator without the lower band option would be (and indeed, should be) hesitant to invest in the 2.6GHz even at the suggested reserve price, only to be limited to high-density areas where competition is the fiercest.
In this case, the driving rationale for an investment would be not to be left behind – but the 2.6GHz is really only a small step while waiting for the real (and more expensive) prize, the 700 MHz or 800 MHz band.
The question is therefore how aggressive to be on 2.6GHz when this is not the most critical piece to have.
And indeed, an argument can be made that an aggressive bid for Smile Nigeria or Intercellular (who hold the last remaining 800MHz chunks) would be more sensible than a strong play for 2.6 GHz spectrum – though one does not exclude the other.
For the Nigerian government, the real proceeds are not in the 2.6GHz auction in our view. They are in finding a way to bring the 700 MHz or whatever might be left of the 800 MHz to market as soon as possible.
MTN Group has moved a step closer to taking full ownership of telecommunications tower operator IHS Towers, after shareholders of the infrastructure company approved the proposed acquisition at an extraordinary general meeting (EGM).
The telecommunications group announced that IHS shareholders voted in favour of the transaction by the required two-thirds majority at the EGM held on 4 August, satisfying one of the key conditions precedent to the deal.
MTN first announced in February that it had entered into an agreement to acquire the remaining shares in IHS, a move that would give the mobile operator full ownership of one of Africa’s largest independent tower companies.
The acquisition forms part of MTN’s Ambition 2030 strategy, which aims to strengthen the group’s digital infrastructure capabilities and diversify revenue streams as demand for connectivity, cloud services and artificial intelligence (AI) continues to grow across the continent.
“The approval by IHS shareholders is an important step toward completion of the transaction,” says Ralph Mupita, MTN Group president and CEO.
“Within our Ambition 2030, the three-platform strategy, towers are a critical value-creation driver that will strengthen MTN’s strategic and financial position for the future, in a world where digital infrastructure and AI are becoming increasingly essential to Africa’s growth and development.”
Tower infrastructure has become increasingly strategic for mobile network operators as demand for high-speed mobile broadband, cloud computing and AI-powered services drives the need for expanded and more efficient network capacity.
The proposed acquisition is expected to strengthen MTN’s position as it continues expanding its digital ecosystem across Africa, where it serves more than 300 million subscribers.
IHS is one of the world’s largest tower companies, with nearly 29 000 towers in Africa serving various mobile network operators in five key MTN markets.
According to the mobile operator, the proposed transaction, which follows discussions noted in February, marks an important step to unlock compelling value for MTN, and strengthen and reintegrate its ownership of critical digital infrastructure across Africa.
For IHS shareholders, MTN notes, it provides an attractive opportunity to crystalise value.
The funding for the proposed transaction of the remaining shares MTN does not already own, for a consideration of $2.2 billion (R35 billion), will be through cash of approximately $1.1 billion on IHS’s balance sheet, along with available liquidity and debt from MTN.
MTN has approximately 24.7% shareholding in IHS, and as part of the transaction, it intends to take the company private through the acquisition of all outstanding shares it does not own, pursuant to a cash merger.
By reintegrating the tower assets, MTN says it will be able to internalise the margin currently paid to IHS, benefit from current and future incremental third-party revenues, improve cost predictability and unlock significant long-term value embedded in its existing investment.
The transaction remains subject to the receipt of the necessary regulatory approvals, which MTN says are still in progress. No timeline has been provided for the completion of the acquisition.
Telecommunications services provider Airtel Nigeria has further extended its national retail footprint with the rollout of 350 out of a planned 500 premium experience centres, which are designed to bring faster, more convenient service closer to millions of Nigerians.
The new retail shops, officially unveiled at a symbolic launch at City Mall, Onikan, Lagos, mark the latest phase in Airtel Nigeria’s grand retail strategy. They significantly expand the company’s extensive network of over 9,000 exclusive shops across every local government area, more than 350 premium experience centres, and over 73,000 retailers in all top towns and cities nationwide.
Built as compact, high-efficiency touchpoints, the newly launched shops are designed to enable subscribers complete all transactions such as Home Broadband, Fiber and Outdoor Units Subscription, Postpaid Plan Subscription, Enterprise Applications Enquiry and Subscription, as well as Prepaid Product services such as SIM registration and Data Plan purchase, other enquiries and comprehensive account support.
Simultaneously, several shops commenced operations at Purple Mall, Lekki; Marina, Lagos Island; Magodo, Lagos; Oke-Ilewo, Abeokuta; Trend Setter Mall, Benin; Abakaliki, Ebonyi State; Kano City Mall, Kano; Carpenters Mall, Gwarinpa, Abuja; and other parts of the country.
The rollout emphasises the company’s continued investment in customer experience and responds directly to feedback from customers seeking quicker access to everyday services without the longer waiting times that may be associated with larger retail centres.
Speaking on the company retail objectives, Joypratip Sengupta, Director, Sales and Distribution, Airtel Nigeria, explained that quality retail experience ultimately drives customer satisfaction. “Our goal is to demonstrate our dedication to exceptional quality of service, and these new shops, by their design, location, and equipment fit right within our goal to deliver superior service to every one of our customers,” he said.
He added that the expansion reflects Airtel Nigeria’s belief that excellent customer experience goes beyond technology to ensuring customers can receive support whenever and wherever they need it.
“Our business at Airtel is to ensure that we bring our services closer to our customers, and everything we do is centred on putting the customer first. These experience centres are open to help customers carry out their transactions faster and with greater ease. Whether you want to replace a SIM, purchase one of our routers, recharge airtime or data, or resolve any service issue, you can now do so more conveniently and closer to where you are,” he said.
He explained that the initiative represents a significant update to Airtel’s retail strategy, placing greater emphasis on accessibility, speed, and convenience.
“These express shops are designed to reduce traffic at our larger shops while giving customers faster access to the services they need. More importantly, they reinforce our vision of building the most accessible customer service network in Nigeria. As the telecom operator with the country’s largest retail footprint, we will continue expanding into more neighbourhoods, making it easier for customers to connect with Airtel wherever they are,” Sengupta noted.
In her remarks at the launch, Lynda Amechi, Head, Shops and Retail Postpaid Business, revealed that the new retail model was born from listening to customers and reimagining how Airtel delivers its services.
She said, “At Airtel, some of our best ideas come directly from our customers. One of the recurring concerns we received was the time customers sometimes spent waiting at our larger experience centres, even when they only needed simple transactions completed. We listened carefully and realised that many of these requests could be resolved within minutes if we brought our services closer to the communities where customers live and work.”
These new shops are also integrated into Airtel Nigeria’s broader customer experience agenda, which have seen the company continue to invest in digital self-service platforms, AI-powered customer support, nationwide customer forums, and significant network expansion across the country.
With this phase of shop launches, Airtel Nigeria has expanded customer access across the country while integrating digital innovation into physical touchpoints.
The Presidential Renewed Hope Media Tour has commended the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) for its progress in advancing indigenous technology development, describing the agency as a key driver of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and Nigeria’s industrial transformation.
The commendation came during a visit by the presidential media delegation to NASENI’s headquarters in Abuja, where members inspected the agency’s technology and manufacturing facilities.
Speaking on behalf of the delegation, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Communication, Information and Strategy, described the agency’s achievements as “impressive, impressive, impressive.”
He said NASENI’s progress demonstrated the capacity of Nigerian youths to excel when provided with the right leadership and support.
Onanuga also praised the leadership of the Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NASENI, Khalil Suleiman Halilu, for repositioning the agency to support the Federal Government’s industrialisation objectives.
In his remarks, Halilu said sustainable industrial growth does not necessarily depend on producing goods entirely from local inputs but requires strategic investment in technology development, innovation and partnerships.
He explained that the agency is focusing on commercially viable innovations capable of creating jobs, reducing production time and supporting the Federal Government’s Nigeria First Policy.
According to him, NASENI is also strengthening technology transfer, commercialisation of research outputs, mentorship programmes for innovators and the Innovate Naija Challenge, which offers a ₦500 million prize fund to support promising Nigerian innovations.
The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, commended NASENI’s achievements and urged the media to give greater visibility to the Federal Government’s programmes and accomplishments across various sectors.
Also speaking, Hadiza Bala Usman stressed the need for stronger strategic communication and increased patronage of locally developed technologies and innovations.
Similarly, Sunday Dare advocated policies that would encourage Ministries, Departments and Agencies to prioritise NASENI products and other locally manufactured goods.
Other members of the delegation, including Tunde Rahman and Otega Ogra, also commended the agency’s strategic partnerships and locally developed technologies.
During the tour, the delegation inspected facilities dedicated to drone technology, helicopter assembly, reverse engineering, precision manufacturing, renewable energy, agricultural technology and recycling systems.
The visitors also witnessed the implementation of NASENI’s 3Cs framework—Creation, Collaboration and Commercialization—which the agency said is driving indigenous manufacturing, innovation and technology transfer.
At the end of the visit, stakeholders called for sustained nationwide campaigns to promote Nigerian-made products, strengthen local manufacturing, reduce dependence on imports and accelerate the country’s industrialisation agenda under President Tinubu.
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