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Cooling Inflation Opens Doors to Rate Cut in the Distant Future

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM,

In an encouraging development, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 11.31% in February, down from the 11.37% recording in January, despite increased government spending.

While it remains too early to suggest the possibility of a rate cut anytime soon, consistent signs of cooling inflation this year should encourage the CBN to act by the final quarter of 2019. The initial argument against a CBN rate cut was the fact that the Federal Reserve was on an aggressive hiking path. A potential rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria was seen to be widening the interest rate differentials between the Naira and Dollar. However, with the Fed seen leaving rates unchanged for an extended period of time and even possibly cutting rates by year-end, the CBN may be offered a window of opportunity to stimulate economic growth further by cutting rates.

Will the Fed provide a further boost to equities?

U.S. stocks posted their best weekly performance last week, sending the S&P 500 above the critical resistance level of 2,815. Equity bulls may see the break of the technical resistance as an indicator of further expected gains, especially given the CBOE’s Volatility Index “VIX” has fallen to its lowest level since October 2018. Two factors have driven equity investors’ optimism: hopes of a resolution in the ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions and central banks’ pledge to keep supporting waning economies. 

Bonds markets however, seem to disagree. If the outlook is as rosy as equity investors suggest, yields on the longer run of the Treasury Curve should have been climbing. Instead, U.S. 10-year yields have fallen below 2.6% for the first time since early January, suggesting that growth and inflation expectations will remain weak for the foreseeable future.

Another concern for the 3-month bull market is liquidity. The recent rally has not been supported by strong inflows, indicating that fewer investors are participating in this bull market. It remains to be seen whether equity or bond markets are right; however, it doesn’t seem this is the most loved bull market.

Will the Fed’s patience reflect in the dot plot?

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is likely to be the most significant risk event for the week.

While it is not expected to see changes in interest rates, investors are hoping for an announcement to end the central bank’s balance sheet reduction. Such a move could prolong the recovery in equity markets.

According to Fed Fund Futures, markets do not just expect a zero chance of rising interest rates on Wednesday, but are indicating a 26% chance of a rate cut by year-end. It will be interesting to see if the Fed agrees with current market views. If the dots on the dot plot are going to be dragged lower, this could attract new selling opportunities for the USD, but Powell’s tone and his assessment of the U.S. economy will also drive the currency.

Deal or no Deal?

The Bank of England is also meeting this week, but this session is likely to be a non-event, with the central bank not expected to make any changes to policy. In fact, it’s the E.U. summit on March 21 – 22 that traders will need to keep an eye on. Will E.U. leaders agree on extending the Brexit deadline, or will they provide some further compromise before the March 29 deadline? If no agreement is reached at this summit, the U.K. will be left with one option. A no-deal Brexit!


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E-Financial

Extradition Papers Completed for Anjarwalla, Fugitive Binance Executive- INTERPOL Africa

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Garba Umar, vice president, Nigerian Central Bureau (NCB) of the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) for Africa confirmed on Tuesday that the extradition papers for Nadeem Anjarwalla , escaped Nigeria Binance executive have been finalized.

Extradition Papers Completed for Anjarwalla, Fugitive Binance Executive- INTERPOL Africa

Nadeem Anjarwalla

Umar made the announcement during a television appearance on the Nigerian news program Sunrise Daily.

“We are now doing everything possible to ensure the country complies with INTERPOL’s rules of international police cooperation by initiating the extradition process to bring him back to face justice in Nigeria,” Umar said.

Anjarwalla was originally detained by Nigerian authorities alongside fellow Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan in late February and arrested on charges of money laundering and tax evasion. He fled shortly thereafter before reportedly being found and detained by Kenyan officials just over a week ago.

Questions have swirled over the legitimacy of Anjarwalla’s and Gambaryan’s capture, with media reports suggesting that the country’s officials demanded personal information from the crypto exchange’s top users.

The duo, who were reportedly invited to the country by its government, are due back in an Abuja court for a hearing later this month.

Meanwhile, Binance claimed it was “collaborating” with the Nigerian government on its employees’ safe return.

“Binance respectfully requests that Tigran Gambaryan, who has no decision-making power in the company, is not held responsible while current discussions are ongoing between Binance and Nigerian government officials,” a recent statement from the company said.

Anjarwalla and Gambrayan aren’t the only higher-ups at the crypto exchange facing prison time.

On Tuesday, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, Binance founder and former CEO was sentenced to four months in U.S. prison after a recent jury trial found him liable for fraud related to the crash of algorithmic stablecoins Terra and Luna.

“I will do my time, conclude this phase and focus on the next chapter of my life (education),” the Binance founder said in a Tuesday X post. “I will remain a passive investor (and holder) in crypto. Our industry has entered a new phase. Compliance is super important.”

In addition to jail time, CZ will be fined $50 million, and Binance will pay $4.3 billion in penalties.

Whether or not Anjarwalla will be extradited or the crypto exchange will be able to win its reputation back amidst the push for regulatory compliance is yet unclear.

 


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PAPSS Set for Expansion To Boost Intra-Africa Payments

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The Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) which was launched to make cross-border transactions seamless, is set to capture more markets in Africa.

The plan was disclosed last week by the Chief Executive Officer of PAPSS, Mr. Mike Ogbalu, during a stakeholders’ forum held in Lagos.

Ogbolu, who was represented, said Fintech across the continent of Africa can operate more seamlessly and widely with the assistance of PAPSS.

According to him, “Currently, there are numerous impediments and challenges facing intra-African trade payments. Banks must navigate sometimes conflicting local, multi-country and multiregional regulations to enable the seamless movement of funds on behalf of their diverse customers across the continent. Operational inefficiencies and onerous compliance requirements are time-consuming impediments.”

In his opening remarks, Mr. Patrick Akinwunta, Ex Ecobank Group Managing Director & Regional Executive at Ecobank Nigeria, said banks, their customers and anyone or business involved in financial transactions across the continent of Africa stand to benefit massively from the PAPSS system.

“The essence of PAPSS is to help in cross-border financial settlement with ease, speed and precision. It is a practical process of instant delivery and a major aggregator that brings everybody together. We all need a connecting point; and PAPSS is the big umbrella.

As a centralized Financial Market Infrastructure that enables the efficient flow of money securely across African borders, minimizing risk and contributing to financial integration across the regions, PAPSS works in collaboration with Africa’s central banks to provide a payment and settlement service to which commercial banks and licensed payment service providers across the region can connect as ‘Participants’.

In his presentation, Mr. Osita Ugwu, Chief Technology Officer at PAPSS, disclosed that 60 banks have already gone live on PAPSS platform, while another 60 are doing integration.

According to him, “By year end, we are expecting 23 banks to be integrated. As of today, 60 banks are doing integration and another 60 banks are going live.

Since its launch by the African Union and the Afreximbank in 2022, several commercial banks have been onboarded on its system.

PAPSS is a pan-African payment system facilitating instant cross-border payments in local African currencies. It is a centralised platform that connects central banks, commercial banks, and other financial institutions across the continent.

The platform was launched in January 2022 by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the African Union (AU). At launch, it was sold as a system that could reduce the cost and time of cross-border payments in Africa and boost intra-African trade. It has partnered with over 25 commercial banks since its launch and helps accelerate payment processing as a real-time gross settlement system.

The system also boosts security compared to the current correspondent banking system, as it operates on a centralised platform governed by the AU and Afreximbank.

At the event, PAPSS introduced a new settlement model called the Commercial Bank Settlement Model (CBSM), which allows commercial banks to open and fund their settlement accounts at Afreximbank and manage their liquidity as per their banking requirements.


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FCMB Group Records 186% Profit Growth, Proposes 50k Dividend

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For the year ended December 31, 2023, FCMB Group Plc grew deposits, loans, assets under management, revenue and earnings and improved its environmental, social, and corporate governance scorecard. The Group recorded a profit before tax of ₦104.4 billion, a 186% year-on-year (YoY) increase compared to ₦36.6 billion in 2022 and earnings growth across its business segments: Banking Group 212.6%, Consumer Finance 67.3%, Investment Management 40%, and Investment Banking 89.7%.

FCMB Group, which proposed a dividend of 50 kobo per share for its shareholders, contributed to food security and import substitution in Nigeria by increasing lending to the agricultural sector by 38.4% from N147.4 billion in 2022 to N204.3 billion in 2023. In addition, the Bank supported over 300,000 smallholder farmers, 56% of whom were women in agriculture, in rural communities to support the sector. Over $280 million of funding from DFI’s and donor agencies was raised during the year to support the attainment of sustainable development goals in critical sectors of the economy.

Leveraging its core banking business, the Group facilitated over $700 million and $100 million in export and remittance flows into Nigeria, respectively, as at December 2023.

In safeguarding the environment, it switched six additional branches of its retail and commercial banking subsidiary (First City Monument Bank Limited) from grid/diesel generators to solar power last year, taking the number of branches running on renewable energy to 160, which represents 78% of total branches.

In addition, the Bank secured funding of up to N13 billion from local development finance institutions for on-lending to customers requiring solar energy solutions to further support its commitment to driving renewable energy.

FCMB’s customer base grew by 15.6% YoY from 10.9 million to 12.5 million for the period ended December 2023, whilst users of its mobile app that offers lending, wealth and payment solutions grew by 31% YoY to 3.4 million. Similarly, the Bank’s agency banking network grew to over 164,000 agents. With an enlarged customer base, an expanded distribution platform, and the use of artificial intelligence to automate and optimise loan underwriting processes, the Group successfully disbursed over 1.5 million loans worth N100.8 billion to individuals, N14.4 billion to micro-enterprises and N177.9 billion to SMEs during the period.

Commenting on the results, the Group Chief Executive of FCMB Group Plc, Mr Ladi Balogun, said: “We continue to leverage our unique Group structure to build a technology-driven ecosystem that is fostering inclusive and sustainable growth in the communities we serve.

“This strategy is enabling us to deliver robust performance in spite of the challenging domestic and global environment. Barring unforeseen circumstances, we believe this trend will be sustained and accompanied by improving efficiencies arising from greater scale and ongoing digitisation”.

The results across market fundamentals also showed gross revenue of N516.4 billion for the period ended December 2023, an 82.5% growth from N283 billion for the same period the prior year. Net interest income grew by 44.8% from N122 billion in 2022 to N176.6 billion in 2023. Customer confidence in FCMB remained strong, as deposits rose by 58.5% YoY from N1.94 trillion to N3.08 trillion, just as loans and advances grew by 54% from N1.20 trillion to N1.84 trillion. The Group’s total assets increased by 48.3% from N2.98 trillion to N4.42 trillion at the end of December 2023.

FCMB Group’s Assets Under Management increased by 29.6% last year from N783.7 billion to N1.02 trillion. The value of investment banking transactions consummated by the Group rose to N945.3 billion for the period ended December 2023, compared to N857.1 billion in the same period the prior year.

FCMB Group, a financial services holding company headquartered in Lagos, Nigeria, and listed on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), has strategic interests in companies serving over 12.5 million customers across five key platforms: banking, consumer finance, investment management, investment banking, and financial technology. The Group and its subsidiaries are building an ecosystem that promotes inclusive and sustainable growth in their communities, primarily in Africa, its diaspora, and the United Kingdom, by connecting people, capital, and markets.


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