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Depletion of ECA Leaves Nigerian Economy Vulnerable- World Bank

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Nigerian economy has become more vulnerable to shocks as a result of the depletion of the Excess Crude Account (ECA), according to the World Bank.

Depletion of ECA Leaves Nigerian Economy Vulnerable- World Bank

The ECA was established in 2004 to save revenues in excess of the budgetary benchmark price generated from the sale of oil, with the aim of protecting the country’s budgets against shortfalls caused by the volatility of crude oil prices.

The account was expected to insulate the Nigerian economy from external economic shocks.

The ECA rose from $5.1bn in 2005 to more than $20bn in November 2008, but during the last meeting of the National Economic Council in December 2019, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, reportedly disclosed that the balance as of  November 19, 2019 was $324.98m.

In its latest Nigeria Economic Update, the World Bank warned that a ‘moderate’ decline in oil price could trigger another recession, noting that the exhaustion of the ECA had made the country more vulnerable.

“Fiscal buffers in the Excess Crude Account have been exhausted, rendering Nigeria more vulnerable to shocks,” the bank said.

Noting that the account was mismanaged, the report added, “The ECA has rarely operated as envisaged. When it was established in 2004, it was to be drawn on only when the actual crude oil price falls below the budget benchmark price for three consecutive months.

“However,  state governments contended that the federal Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007 creating the ECA was not binding on state and local governments.”

The World Bank observed that the   Sovereign Wealth Fund was established in 2011 by the three tiers of government to serve as the oil savings fund for the country.

The SWF has three components – future generations, infrastructure and stabilisation funds.

The stabilisation fund, like the ECA, was to support federation revenue in times of economic stress.

“It was envisaged that the balance in the ECA in 2011 would be transferred to the SWF.

The World Bank said, “Instead, in 2012 seed capital of only $1.5bn was transferred, plus another $0.5bn in 2017.”

The balance of the Stabilisation Account, reportedly  as of  December 17, 2019, was N30.5bn, while the Natural Resource Fund held N88.3 at the same date.

The World Bank further observed that Nigeria’s consolidated government revenue was very low by the standards of comparable countries.

“During the commodity boom Nigeria’s consolidated government revenue reached 12 per cent of GDP, among the lowest ratios for structural, aspirational and regional peers.

It said, “After oil price and production shocks and Nigeria’s first recession in over two decades, in 2016 general government revenue plunged to six per cent of GDP – second lowest of 115 countries for which data are available.

“Recovering to eight per cent of GDP in 2018, government revenues are projected to plateau there unless there are significant tax policy and administration reforms.”

The bank warned that the prevailing situation will continue to constrain the budget envelope and limit fiscal space for investing in physical and human capital.

In the absence of fiscal buffers such as the one that was supposed to be provided by the now exhausted ECA, Nigeria risks another recession, due to the country’s dependence on oil, the bank said.

It added, “A moderate decline in oil prices could lead to a recession in Nigeria due to its dependence on oil; the Nigerian economy is highly vulnerable to a drop in oil prices.

“The oil sector remains the dominant source of risk for growth of Nigeria’s economy, with sustained suboptimal policy decisions aggravating the size of the potential impact on the economy.

“For example, a sudden decline in oil prices to 2016 levels, sustained for a year, would undermine growth and fiscal balances and the lack of monetary and fiscal buffers would magnify the impact of any shock to the economy.

“If oil prices dropped again by about 25 per cent, the country could swing into a recession, with a more difficult recovery path.”

Evaluating the possible impact of a temporary decline in oil price, the bank noted that the development could subtract up to 0.5 percentage points from growth.

The report projected,  “Yet, the indirect (spillover) effects on external and fiscal balances and the financial sector would be significant, similar to, if not worse, than what happened during the 2016 recession.

“Since the Federal Government’s deficit is already twice the size of Nigeria’s revenues, the fall in fiscal revenues proportionate to the 25 per cent fall in oil prices would virtually eliminate space for infrastructure spending, with obvious long-term repercussions for growth.

“With no fiscal buffers available –the Excess Crude Account balance is less than $0.5bn – and no likelihood of external borrowing as investor confidence drops because of uncertainty over Nigeria’s policy response, deficits would have to be financed domestically, sending the cost of borrowing soaring.

“Because there are no buffers, the nonoil economy could contract by more than in 2016, with the economy as a whole shrinking by more than two per cent.

“Recovery would be slow in the absence of structural reforms, even if the oil price rebounded by about 15 per cent as the global economy recovers.”

However, world oil prices jumped nearly $3 on Friday after the United States killed Qassem Soleimani, Iranian military chief, a development which fanned fresh fears of conflict in the crude oil-rich Middle East.

The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, hit $69.16 per barrel, its highest since September 17, 2019, before easing to $68.81 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate surged by $2.03 to $63.21 per barrel, having earlier spiked to $63.84 a barrel, its highest since May 1, 2019


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Nigeria Customs Deploys AI to Cover Revenue Leaks

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The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has rolled out an artificial intelligence (AI) driven capacity-building programme to improve revenue generation and reconciliation across its operations.

The initiative, unveiled during a three-day training event in Abuja, aims to transition the agency toward data-driven administration as Nigeria seeks to boost non-oil revenue.

The adoption of AI will enable the service to better manage complex trade systems, detect anomalies and reduce revenue leakages, says Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, comptroller-general of the NCS.

AI-powered tools are already being integrated into risk management and cargo scanning systems to allow for real-time analysis of trade patterns.

The technology marks a transition from manual, reactive processes to predictive and automated decision-making, Adeniyi adds.

The programme also reflects a shift in the relationship between the NCS and the National Assembly toward a collaborative framework focused on transparency and efficiency.

The training is a strategic intervention to address persistent gaps in revenue management, says Kikelomo Adeola, deputy comptroller-general of the NCS.

AI applications, ranging from automated data analysis to predictive intelligence, will significantly enhance the integrity of public financial systems, she says.

The initiative aligns with broader efforts to modernise governance and improve compliance across revenue-generating agencies, says Bamidele Salam, chairman of the House Public Accounts Committee.

Lawmakers and fiscal authorities at the event underscored the urgency of adopting advanced technologies amid rising budgetary pressures.

This move comes as the federal government increases scrutiny over revenue leakages and audit discrepancies.

The partnership between the NCS and the legislature is critical to strengthening fiscal discipline and ensuring all revenue due to the federation is accurately captured, Adeniyi concludes.


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Lagos Targets Vulnerable Residents in Expanded Social Register

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Lagos State Government has intensified efforts to strengthen its social protection framework with a fresh push to update the state’s Single Social Register.

Lagos Targets Vulnerable Residents in Expanded Social Register

Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Governor, Lagos

This was contained in a press statement on the government’s Facebook page on Wednesday.

The initiative, led by the Lagos State Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget, formed the focus of a strategic engagement held on Monday with Community-Based Targeting teams, local government coordinators and field enumerators across the state’s 57 Local Government Areas and Local Council Development Areas.

The meeting, themed “Closing the Gap: Accelerating Lagos State Single Social Register Update,” took place at the Radio Lagos Multipurpose Hall in Agidingbi, Ikeja.

Officials said the exercise is aimed at improving the accuracy and reach of the register, which serves as a critical tool for planning and delivering targeted social interventions, including financial support, healthcare and education services.

Speaking at the session, Ope George, commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget, commended field workers for their commitment while urging them to scale up their efforts.

He called on participants to be “more intentional by intensifying their commitment,” reaffirming the government’s resolve to “continuously strengthen and refine the Register to reflect evolving realities.”

Also speaking, Olayinka Ojo, permanent secretary in the ministry, described the register as central to effective governance and service delivery.

She said “it remains a cornerstone for effective planning and delivery of social intervention programmes,” adding that the ongoing update is designed to “further enhance data reliability, coordination, and service delivery outcomes.”

Ojo noted that sensitisation efforts would be expanded across all councils to ensure wider inclusion of residents, stating that “the advocacy and sensitisation will scale throughout the 57 LGAs and LCDA to give more to Lagos residents.”

According to the government, the updated register is expected to expand access to social protection programmes and improve the targeting of interventions for the most vulnerable populations.

The engagement also provided a platform for stakeholders to strengthen collaboration, improve data quality and reinforce transparency in grassroots data collection.

The state government reiterated its commitment to leveraging accurate data and partnerships to drive inclusive development, reduce vulnerability and improve living standards across Lagos.


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Study Shows 38% of Northern Women Lack Access to Financial Services

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A new study by Bayero University, Kano, has found that 38 per cent of women in Northern Nigeria do not have access to financial services.

The study, carried out by the Aminu Kano Centre for Democratic Studies of the university, was supported by the Gates Foundation. It examined how social norms and behavioural factors influence financial inclusion across the 19 Northern states.

The report, titled “Understanding Influence and Behaviour in Northern Nigeria” and unveiled in Abuja on Wednesday, stated that while 52 per cent of women are financially served, only 45 per cent access formal financial services through deposit money banks, merchant banks, interest-free banks and microfinance institutions.

It stated that “38 per cent of women across the region lack access to financial services. “52 per cent of women are financially served, while 45 per cent access formal financial services through Deposit Money Banks, merchant banks, interest-free banks and microfinance institutions. An additional seven per cent utilise other formal non-bank financial products, including insurance services. ”

Speaking at the unveiling, the Director of Academic Planning at Bayero University, Prof. Yusuf Garba, who represented the Vice Chancellor, Prof. Haurna Musa said the research was designed to uncover why the region lags in financial access.

“This study, which started in 2024, aims to examine how social norms influence attitudes and behaviour of various groups across Northern Nigeria, particularly to find out why states in the region fall behind in access and use of financial services,” he said.

Garba explained that the research, conducted over 18 months, produced two volumes detailing how influence structures, trust hierarchies, gender norms, and religious considerations shape decisions around finance, health and education.

He added, “The report is structured into volumes to provide a unified explanation of how social norms, authority structure, and trust shape financial behaviour across Northern Nigeria.”

On the findings, the Principal Investigator, Prof. Ismael Zango, said the data aligns with figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, particularly on poverty and unemployment.

According to him, “unemployment in the region stands at about 37 per cent,” while “poverty levels average about 80 per cent across Northern Nigeria, with Sokoto State recording the highest rate at over 80 per cent.”

Zango stressed that addressing financial exclusion requires more than temporary interventions.

“Economic empowerment must go beyond token financial support,” he said, adding that “sustainable development requires equipping women and youths with relevant, market-driven skills.”

He cited women-led initiatives such as groundnut processing groups in Kebbi State and the Women in Agriculture programme in Kano State as practical models.

“These initiatives should be scaled up to bring more people into productive economic activities and reduce poverty,” he said.

In her remarks, the Chief Executive Officer of Enhancing Financial Inclusion and Advancement, Mrs. Foyinsolami Akinjayeju, described financial inclusion as both an ethical and economic imperative.

Akinjayeju called for stronger collaboration among stakeholders, including government, financial institutions and development partners, as well as policy reforms to address existing gaps.

“Everyone has a role to play, but commitment must come from the top,” she said.

The findings come amid growing concerns over low financial inclusion rates in Northern Nigeria, driven by poverty, unemployment, and entrenched social norms that limit women’s economic participation.


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