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Economy: Nigeria on a Rough Road to Recovery

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Research Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, writes on the Nigeria’s tedious task of economic recovery.

The rising confidence in the recovery of Nigeria’s economy was dealt a heavy blow in May following reports of the nation’s first quarter GDP growth for 2017 contracting by 0.52%.

Sentiment towards the nation is likely to turn bearish in the short term as investors become defensive and reassess if economic growth will follow a negative trajectory this year.

While the current contraction is nothing to celebrate, it should be kept in mind that it remains the best performance seen in four quarters.

With many sectors of the Nigerian economy already roaring back to life this year, bullish impacts are likely to be seen in the second and third quarter of 2017.

Investors must keep in mind that Nigeria has been exposed to downside shocks since the sharp depreciation of oil with rising inflation, tepid economic growth, and a foreign exchange dilemma all adding to the pressure.

External risks such as oil price volatility and a potential U.S interest rate increase remain causes for concern in the short term that could create fresh tremors. Despite all the difficulties laid-out, the longer-term outlook for Nigeria remains bright, especially when considering how inflation is stabilizing and non-oil sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture and transportation are building momentum.

Consumer prices in Nigeria declined for the third consecutive month in April at 17.25%, which is very encouraging.

The visible display of price stability will most likely boost investor confidence towards the nation further and ultimately support growth. With April’s solid Purchasing Manager Index of 58.9 also highlighting a strong rebound in business activity as the nation stabilizes, the long-term bullish sentiment should remain supported.

The Nigerian parliament has already approved the government’s seven trillion budget to revive the economy, which may prove to break the nation away from recent recessionary chains.

Focusing on the foreign exchange outlook, the Central Bank of Nigeria has repeatedly intervened this year with a recent injection of $225 million easing some pressure on the Naira.

While the injection of cash may continue to support the Naira on the parallel markets, questions should be asked over its sustain ability. With the nation’s foreign exchange reserves dropping to $30.78 billion as the CBN defends the local currency, the central bank must look to alternative methods to stabilize prices.

For Nigeria to truly evolve and transition into a heavyweight in the global arena, the multiple exchanges should be eliminated with supply and demand determining the real value of the Naira.

From a technical standpoint, a vulnerable Dollar created from uncertainties surrounding Trump’s presidency has the ability to support the Nigerian Naira in the parallel exchange, with traders observing how prices react to 350.

Despite efforts to reduce its economy’s reliance on oil, Nigeria continues to be exposed to external risks due to oil market volatility. With OPEC potentially asking Nigeria to cut oil output in the pending OPEC meeting on May 25, the country’s 2017 budget which has been benchmarked against an oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day could be threatened.

The outlook for oil still remains bearish despite the probable nine-month extension to the supply cut deal with markets heavily focusing on how U.S Shale responds. If oil prices find comfort below $40 this year and Nigeria is forced to cut production following the OPEC meeting, this will impact government revenues and slightly obstruct the road to recovery.

2017 will be a critical test for Nigeria with foreign investors heavily scrutinizing economic data and central bank policies to gauge the health of the economy.

It is common knowledge that the largest economy in Africa needs to achieve a stable macroeconomic climate, heavily reinvest in agriculture when diversifying, and boost infrastructure to generate sustainable economic growth.

The subtle signs of stability remain visible with Nigeria’s stock exchange edging higher amid the improving sentiment while the one billion Federal Government Euro bond on the NSE continues to verify how confident foreign investors have become with regards to Nigeria’s future.

 

 


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E-Financial

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

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Nigerians have more trust in Bitcoin-based systems than in traditional alternatives such as banks and government, a new report by Elastos, an open-source blockchain website, has stated.

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

According to its inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust), emerging markets are driving the adoption of Bitcoin, with Nigeria and the UAE leading the charge.

The report revealed that 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil had more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives like banks or national governments, compared to just 16 per cent in Germany and 21 per cent in the UK.

The survey also revealed that 20 per cent of Nigerian consumers use Bitcoin to conduct transactions at least once a day, while 67 per cent would have more trust in Bitcoin to protect their life savings than traditional services like banks, local governments, and cash.

According to the platform, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, the UAE, the UK, and the US.

It stated that the interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company, between March 30 and April 4, 2024.

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin compared to alternatives,” it indicated.

According to the report, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent of Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives, such as banks or national governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Hargreaves,  Elastos’ global head, Business Development & ESG, described the BIT Index’s inaugural findings as indicative of the role the ‘global south’ was playing in the adoption of decentralised currencies such as Bitcoin.

“The BIT Index offers a fascinating and sobering insight into the industry. The fact that over two-thirds of Nigerian consumers and a third of their counterparts from the UAE and Brazil would feel more confident entrusting their life savings to Bitcoin rather than traditional financial instruments speaks volumes about the protagonism these regions are already playing.

“In many instances, the driving factor is the absence of viable, accessible alternatives to, for instance, conduct cross-border transactions or mitigate the impact of inflation,” he said.

According to Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency research firm, Nigeria’s crypto transaction volume grew year-over-year to $56.7bn in 2023.

It stated that the country’s crypto economy continued to grow despite market turmoil in the space.

On the contrary, the government has been taking strong measures to restrict and clamp down on cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms operating in the country.

 

 


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CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has awarded the country’s second Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) license to Unified Payments, Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, following a rigorous and transparent process,

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

The move is targeted at enforcing existing requirement that all transactions from point-of-sale channels in Nigeria must go through a licensed Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA).

The CBN is enforcing the laws to clamp down on financial crimes and other market misconducts and it aligns with the CBN’s objectives to fully track all electronic transactions in Nigeria, given the propensity of using such transactions to fund insecurity, violent crimes, banditry, kidnapping as well as other vices.

According to one analyst, “By awarding a second PTSA license, the apex bank has proactively responded to industry operators who had expressed serious concerns about channelling all transactions through a single aggregator, the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System PLC (NIBBS), as has been the case for some years.

“With the new policy direction, payments service providers would henceforth route all transactions through either of the two licensed Companies.”

Other financial analysts and industry players have commended the Central Bank, affirming that “the move can be a massive step in the right direction. They also commended the open, transparent, and inclusive manner via which the selection process was managed, and the license awarded.

“The selection process, which lasted for months, began with an invitation for qualified organisations within the payment industry to submit an Expression of Interest document, alongside other requisite documentation and additional capital requirement of N1 billion.”

 

The new management of CBN decided not to give the license out without going through an open process – and for the first time in licensing a payment service provider – the apex bank went through a public bid process outlined in its publication of Friday, January 5, 2024, in different national newspapers. At the end of the process, Unified Payments emerged as the most preferred service provider.

Unified Payment Services Limited, also called Unified Payments or UP, is a shared service provider within Nigeria’s financial technology sector owned by a consortium of Nigerian banks. For over 26 years, the firm has provided payment technology to banks and other industry operators. The first and only non-bank entity that is a principal member and licensed acquirer of all of American Express, Mastercard, Visa, UnionPay and Payattitude. Unified Payments facilitates both local and international transactions.

Formerly known as ValuCard Nigeria Plc, Unified Payments led the way to introduce POS payments in Nigeria under its card scheme known as ValuCard which is the first payment card to be issued in Nigeria. The company later transformed into a scheme-neutral and option-neutral service provider enabling transactions under different schemes.

The company has continued to provide leading payment technologies and services, enabling different operators to leverage its capabilities and licenses, enabling prompt and seamless transactions.

Among the shareholders of Unified Payments are First Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank and Fidelity Bank. Other shareholders are Citibank Nigeria Limited, Ecobank of Nigeria Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Ltd, Polaris Bank Ltd, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and Wema Bank Plc.


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CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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